Tag: John Wick

Box Office Predictions: November 7-9

After a sleepy Halloween weekend at the box office, November will bring some much needed fireworks to the multiplex as two eagerly awaited release debut Friday. They are Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi epic Interstellar and Disney’s animated Big Hero 6. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/01/interstellar-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/01/big-hero-6-box-office-prediction/

The big question is: which one will open #1? I have Interstellar just outdoing what Gravity accomplished last year, while putting Big Hero 6 roughly in the middle of the opening weekends of Wreck-It Ralph and Frozen. That means I’m predicting Hero will edge out Interstellar for the top spot, though other prognosticators feel differently.

As for the remainder of the top five, there should be a grouping of pics that all make in the $5M range jockeying for position. I’ll predict current #1 Ouija and #3 Fury drop out.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Big Hero 6

Predicted Gross: $61.4 million

2. Interstellar

Predicted Gross: $57.2 million

3. Nightcrawler

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. The Book of Life

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 31%)

Box Office Results (October 31-November 2)

As mentioned, it was a quiet weekend at the box office as Ouija managed to stay #1. The critically reviled horror flick took in $10.7 million in weekend #2, ahead of my $8.8M estimate. It’s taken in $46 million so far, which is terrific considering its tiny budget.

The critically acclaimed Jake Gyllenhall thriller Nightcrawler debuted in second with a decent $10.4 million, above my $8.1M projection. While reviewers dug it, its weak B- Cinemascore indicates a rather tough road ahead.

Other holdovers all managed to outpace my predictions for the weekend. Fury was third with $8.8 million (I predicted $7.7M). It’s taken in $60 million so far. Gone Girl was fourth with $8.4 million – compared to my $7.4M estimate. It’s up to $136M domestically and has become David Fincher’s highest grossing film stateside. The Book of Life was fifth with $8.2 million, compared to my $7.1M projection (it stands at $40M).

In weekend two, Keanu Reeves’s action pic John Wick was sixth at $7.9 million, in line with my $7.3M prediction. Its two week total is at $27M. Bill Murray’s St. Vincent help up considerably better than my $4.6M estimate as it earned $7.2 million. The comedy/drama has made $19M. In eighth was Alexander and his long title of a bad day with $6.5 million, ahead of my $4.4M projection. It’s earned $53M.

On the other hand, when it came to newbies – I vastly gave two of them too much credit. The Nicole Kidman/Colin Firth thriller Before I Go to Sleep stumbled with only $1.8 million for a 15th place debut. I predicted $3.5M. And the 10th anniversary re-release of Saw gained no traction with a pathetic $650,000 for a 20th place opening. I thought it would manage $4.1M. Oops.

That’s all for now, friends!

Box Office Predictions: October 31-November 2

The Halloween weekend is shaping up to be a tepid yet unpredictable one at the box office. There are three new entries: the Jake Gyllenhall crime pic Nightcrawler, Nicole Kidman/Colin Firth thriller Before I Go to Sleep, and the 10th anniversary re-release of Saw. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/nightcrawler-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/before-i-go-to-sleep-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/saw-10th-anniversary-box-office-prediction/

None of these newbies is expected to scare up much business. Added to the misery: all holdovers should dip below double digits, assuming current champ Ouija suffers the typical horror flick big drop. That means that my estimates reflect the #1 movie for this weekend will fail to reach past $10M for the first time since September 2012 when horror pic The Possession managed to open first with just over $9 million. Simply put, this is a dull weekend at the multiplex until November heavy hitters Interstellar, Big Hero 6, Dumb and Dumber To, and Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 open.

Depending on what happens, it could be a free for all for the #1 position as the difference between my #1 and #6 are a mere $1.7M apart. For this weekend, I’ll do a rare top ten predictions and we’ll see how it all shakes out:

1. Ouija

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 56%)

2. Nightcrawler

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

3. Fury

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. John Wick

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)

6. The Book of Life

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 38%)

7. St. Vincent

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)

8. Alexander and the Horrible, Terrible, No Good, Very Bad Day

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million (representing a drop of 38%)

9. Saw 10th Anniversary

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

10. Before I Go to Sleep 

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

Box Office Results (October 24-26)

As expected, the pre-Halloween weekend allowed critically reviled Ouija took open #1 with $19.8 million, under my $24.9M projection. With a tiny budget, however, this will reap a nice cash flow for its studio.

Keanu Reeves saw a better than expected opening for his critically acclaimed actioner John Wick, which debuted second with $14.4 million (above my $11M estimate). The lackluster Cinemascore grade of B, though, portends it probably will fade rather quickly.

Brad Pitt’s Fury dropped to third with $13.3 million in weekend two, under my $14.8M estimate. It’s earned $46M in 10 days.

Gone Girl was fourth in its fourth weekend with $11 million, in line with my $11.6M projection. The hit has earned $124M so far.

The animated feature The Book of Life was fifth in its sophomore frame with $10 million, just below my $11.3M prediction. It’s two week total stands at $30M.

Finally, Bill Murray’s St. Vincent expanded nationwide and took in a respectable $7.7 million, not matching my $8.6M estimate.

That’s all for now!

Box Office Predictions: October 24-26

Horror and action fans have newbies to feast on this weekend as Ouija and John Wick open Friday, attempting to displace Fury from its perch atop the box office. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/19/ouija-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/19/john-wick-box-office-prediction/

I believe the Halloween season should allow Ouija to make it to #1, though my estimate is slightly higher than others I’ve seen. Being that it’s a horror flick, it could also surpass my expectations. If only there was a board game I could ask about it…

As far as John Wick, I’m not expecting much out of it as I don’t think it’s been marketed well enough to make it a must see among action fans.

Fury may experience a smallish decline next weekend and I anticipate the same for both Gone Girl and The Book of Life. 

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. Ouija

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

2. Fury

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (representing a drop of 37%)

3. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. The Book of Life

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. John Wick

Predicted Gross: $11 million

Box Office Results (October 17-19)

As expected, Brad Pitt’s Fury opened in first place with a respectable though unspectacular $23.7 million, a bit below my $26.4M projection. With decent reviews and an A- Cinemascore grade, it should hold up reasonably well in subsequent weekends.

Megahit Gone Girl slipped to second in its third weekend with $17.5 million, right on par with my $17.6M estimate. The David Fincher pic has amassed $106M so far.

The animated feature The Book of Life opened in third with a solid $17 million, slightly above my $15.6M prediction. Like most kiddie pics, it should hold up well for the foreseeable future (at least until Big Hero 6 opens).

Alexander and the Horrible, Terrible, No Good, Very Bad Day was fourth in its sophomore weekend with $11.4 million, just below my $12.5M estimate. It’s taken in $36 million in ten days and may reach around $65M domestic.

Opening with a thud in fifth was the Nicholas Sparks adaptation The Best of Me with just $10 million, well under my generous $17.8M projection. The poorly reviewed romantic drama marks the worst opening ever for a Sparks adapted novel. Perhaps opening it in February would’ve been smarter.

Slipping from second to sixth was Dracula Untold with $9.9 million, close to my $10.7M prediction. The Universal monster pic has taken in $40 million in two weeks and should finish with about $60M.

That’s all for now, my friends!

John Wick Box Office Prediction

It’s been over a decade since Keanu Reeves saw box office fireworks with The Matrix trilogy and we’re far removed from his ability to open something like 2005’s Constantine and 2008’s The Day the Earth Stood Still to $30 million debuts. Expectations are considerably lower for this Friday’s John Wick, starring Reeves as a hitman out for vengeance.

Wick is much more likely to see an opening similar to the star’s 2008 pic Street Kings, which got off to a $12.4M start. Despite its so far favorable reviews, Wick‘s TV spots and trailers probably haven’t done enough to cause action fans to flock to it. It also doesn’t help that it has direct competition in the form of Fury‘s sophomore weekend. I’ll predict this barely gets past double digits for a lackluster beginning and that most genre fans will wait for VOD and cable for this.

John Wick opening weekend prediction: $11 million

For my prediction on Ouija, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/19/ouija-box-office-prediction/