Oscar Predictions: Ballerina

Ana de Armas headlines the John Wick franchise spinoff Ballerina this weekend with Keanu Reeves appearing in the action thriller from director Len Wiseman. Other costars include Gabriel Byrne, Catalinia Sandino Moreno, Norman Reedus, and Wick fixtures Anjelica Huston, Ian McShane, and the late Lance Reddick.

The Academy recently announced a new Achievement in Stunt Design category. However, it won’t begin until the 100th ceremony in 2028. That’s bad news for Ballerina and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning in 2025. Both the Wick and Impossible series likely would’ve racked up multiple noms had that race existed over the past decade plus.

Four previous Wick pics couldn’t get into categories like Sound or Visual Effects and I doubt Ballerina will. My Oscar Predictions posts will continue…

John Wick: Chapter 4 Review

No franchise has seen more actors submit headshots to get their heads shot than this one. Nearly a decade has passed since the puppy of John Wick (Keanu Reeves) was offed by Russian mobsters in the 2014 original. Much less time has expired onscreen as we arrive at Chapter 4. In the features that have followed, the world building continues to grow as the squib games ramp up.

As a quick reminder, Wick was a legendary hitman mourning his wife’s death from natural causes in 2014. When the condemned criminals caused the demise of his very good boy, it triggered a thirst for revenge still not quenched. The storyline also veered into unexpected and violently enjoyable directions. This includes The Continental, stylish hotels across the globe that cater to nefarious types. The Wick world also established its own set of rules for how these characters behave. It’s all set in a cinematic universe where law enforcement is on permanent break and an all-powerful syndicate The High Table calls the shots.

Ultimately it’s an excuse for long take battles where Keanu and his friends and enemies (and in some cases frenemies) find fresh ways to shoot indistinguishable baddies in the head. This can be monotonous but director Chad Stahelski and his team of technicians and stunt persons more often impress with their inventive set-ups.

In 2019’s Chapter 3 – Parabellum, Wick was left for dead by the High Table and rescued by underground crime lord the Bowery King (Laurence Fishburne, still having a ball). Our title character is in heavy revenge mode as the travelogue takes him to Morocco on horseback and then New York City, Japan, and Berlin. His back is always against the wall as the reward for his killing is $20 million and increasing.

The main player tasked with extinguishing Wick is Caine (Donnie Yen), a blind former Table assassin reluctantly returning to employment. His lack of sight causes creative ways for him to accomplish goals. Every time a bell rings around him, a henchman gets his wings (you’ll see). His hirer is the arrogant and ruthless Marquis (Bill Skarsgård), making for a delightfully smarmy addition. Skarsgård nailed the role of Pennywise with his demented sideways glances in the It double feature. Now he has another memorable villainous turn. Ian McShane’s Continental manager Winston (last seen putting a bullet into Wick) is more supportive this time. Shamier Anderson turns up as a skilled bounty hunter waiting for the price to be right before taking Wick out. In keeping with the franchise’s canine connection, he has a dedicated pooch who enacts cruelty to would-be tormentors. The dog’s presence also humorously reveals that even hotels for the underworld must adopt a policy for emotional support animals.

I have a tough time ranking these movies over the others. It sort of feels like one long movie. This one feels a bit longer because it is. Chapter 4 probably doesn’t need to clock in at three hours, but the action sequences continue to wow and this edition has the best adversary. As long as they continue to stay this solid and stylish, my policy will be to support them.

*** (out of four)

John Wick: Chapter 4 Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (03/20): Wick appears poised for a massive over performance. I am revising from projection from $69.1M to $85.5M.

Each Wick pic has burned brighter at the box office than the previous entry and the trend looks to continue as John Wick: Chapter 4 is unleashed on March 24th. Keanu Reeves is back in the title role with Chad Stahelski returning to direct. The supporting players are a mix of familiar franchise faces and newcomers including Donnie Yen, Bill Skarsgård, Hiroyuki Sanada, Shamier Anderson, Lance Reddick, Rino Sawayama, Ian McShane, and Laurence Fishburne.

In the fall of 2014, the first Wick was a modest success when it debuted with $14 million and $43 million domestic overall. Those numbers seem meager now, but they were better than anticipated and more fans were gained when it hit the home viewing circuit. The 2017 sequel took in $30 million out of the gate with $92 million total. In 2019, Chapter 3 – Parabellum soared to a $56 million premiere with $171 million in the stateside bank.

At nearly three hours long, Chapter 4 is generating some of the strongest reviews of the series. With 91% on Rotten Tomatoes, critics are particularly praising the choreography of its wild action sequences. That should get plenty of genre fans out to the multiplexes. Like Creed III, look for this to score a series high opening with room to spare. I’m thinking mid 60s to possibly $70 million is achievable.

John Wick: Chapter 4 opening weekend prediction: $85.5 million (REVISED NUMBER)

Oscar Predictions – John Wick: Chapter 4

The Best Picture lineup for the just aired Academy Awards was 20% sequel with Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water in contention. We also had Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery up in key contests. So is it crazy to think John Wick: Chapter 4 could find its way into the Oscar conversation a little less than a year from now? Yeah, it might be.

Or maybe not. The fourth heaping of ultra-violence starring Keanu Reeves and directed by Chad Stahelski stands at 89% on Rotten Tomatoes prior to its March 24th domestic bow. That exactly matches the scores of predecessors Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 – Parabellum and exceeds the original’s 86%.

Yet many of the reviews are calling #4 the best of the wild bunch. The nearly three hour opus is being specifically singled out for its production design and cinematography. I could certainly see Film Twitter mounting a campaign for this acclaimed franchise to finally get some love from the tech branches. It’s unlikely to occur, but not impossible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum Movie Review

John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum brings us back into the franchise where the forecast is usually stylishly rainy and dripping with violence. There’s a 100% chance of Keanu Reeves finding creative ways to kill people. Our third iteration does what you expect from a sequel. It increases the action so Mr. Wick fights more. His poor dog met an unfortunate end in Chapter 1 that kicked all of this off. In Parabellum, dogs don’t die. They fight too.

Just as part 2 picked up immediately after its predecessor, this does as well. As you’ll recall, our title character has been excommunicated by the High Table, the organization that governs the unlimited supply of assassins that populate New York City and beyond. He’s a marked man with a $14 million bounty on his head and a dwindling supply of markers causing people to help him. Those individuals include Oscar winning women like Halle Berry and Anjelica Huston.

Wick can no longer have a safe space in the Continental Hotel, managed by Winston (Ian McShane) and his trusty concierge (Lance Reddick). That place provided many highlights in the first two pictures, but our man branches out here. After an excursion to Rome in #2, Wick’s passport gets him to Casablanca here. That’s where he teams with Berry and does a Clark Griswold style desert journey that does give him a respite from the cool looking rain.

Calling the shots is the Adjudicator (an effective Asia Kate Dillon). She’s in charge of punishing the folks who’ve helped Wick out in the past. This includes Winston and the returning Bowery King (Laurence Fishburne, still having a ball). Our head henchman who wants to collect the Wick murder money is Zero (Mark Dacascos) and his character is quite fun. He may have a task to complete, but he’s also a total fanboy of the legend he’s hunting. Their interplay is an added bonus.

Parabellum is ultimately about how well the action scenes work. Director Chad Stahelski and Reeves once again dig deep into their bag of martial arts inspired tricks. And a decent sized portion of the fight sequences are downright thrilling. Perhaps this series will eventually run of gas and the choreography of Reeves in sadistic motion delivering headshots won’t be as satisfying. Not yet.

*** (out of four)

John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (05/15): My estimate has risen from $37.8 million to $45.8 million

Keanu Reeves is back in theaters next weekend as America’s favorite dog loving hitman when John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum debuts. The action thriller hopes to build upon the momentum of 2017’s highly successful sequel. Chad Stahelski returns as director with familiar series faces including Laurence Fishburne, Lance Reddick, Ian McShane, and John Leguizamo. New stars in our third edition include Halle Berry, Mark Dacascos, Asia Kate Dillon, and Anjelica Huston.

Mr. Reeves found himself in an unexpected new franchise five years ago when John Wick opened to $14 million with a $43 million overall domestic gross. While that might not seem like enough to automatically warrant a follow-up, the pic achieved critical kudos and cult status when it arrived on demand. Three years later, Chapter 2 made $30 million for its start and $92 million total.

Parabellum has a solid shot at topping the opening weekend of its predecessor, which also garnered glowing reviews. I’ll say mid to high 30s is where this ends up.

John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum opening weekend prediction: $45.8 million

For my A Dog’s Journey prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/10/a-dogs-journey-box-office-prediction/

For my The Sun Is Also a Star prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/10/the-sun-is-also-a-star-box-office-prediction/

John Wick: Chapter 2 Movie Review

Unlike its surprise hit predecessor, no animals are harmed in the duration of John Wick: Chapter 2. However, dozens and dozens of other miscellaneous henchmen are. Especially their heads, which is a specialty of our title character to turn them into squib fodder.

2014’s John Wick gave our retired assassin (Keanu Reeves) a decent reason to use his killing skills. His dying wife gave him a dog as a gift and bad guys disposed of it (they also stole his sweet ride). This led to a shoot-em-up extravaganza that served as a comeback role for Reeves and one of the more distinctive action titles in a while. Directors Chad Stahelski and David Leitch fashioned an ultra stylish, ultra violent, and occasionally ultra inventive experience. The first Wick burned with an intense, brooding and often humorous showcase for its star. Yet it also began building a world gleefully not grounded anywhere in reality that let the creative juices of screenwriter Derek Kolstad run free. This was especially evident in scenes at The Continental Hotel in New York City, a fancy establishment reserved for nefarious types who make their living from offing others.

It was time spent at that hotel that gave John Wick an air of something new and creative and it turns out there’s a Continental in Rome as well. That’s where the majority of the carnage here takes place. The sequel picks up right after the events of the original as Wick wraps up his business from the previous outing. He’s ready to go back to retirement with his new unnamed canine companion when an Italian baddie (Riccardo Scamarcio) visits his home. It turns out Wick made a deal with him some time ago to accept any job with no questions asked. Our villain’s task is to kill his sister so he can elevate his crime boss status and that brings Wick to Rome with an arsenal.

What follows is a lot of what we saw in the original – grandly choreographed sequences in which Wick uses his talents. This could run the risk of becoming redundant. There’s only so many ways of killing villains, but I’ll be damned if Wick doesn’t find some fascinating ways to do it. Still, it’s the little touches that make chapters 1 and 2 special from time to time.

For instance, I love the idea of an old school telephone company setting where the women working in the office look like goth versions of tellers from the 1950s. Their job is to pass along information when a hit is ordered (of which John is certainly subject to). I found myself interested in all the rules that the film’s enormous supply of assassins must abide by and the hints of larger syndicates. Some of those new professionals include Common (whose fights scenes with Wick are a highlight) and Ruby Rose as a mute vixen who hurls insults through sign language. Laurence Fishburne pops up as an underground (literally) crime leader whose group will probably play a larger role in the inevitable sequel.

While Wick’s motivations in this chapter aren’t quite as rage inducing as his departed pup, Chapter 2 recognizes the unique qualities that put chapter 1 above your typical genre material. Thankfully it keeps it at a level where I’m curious what the next chapter brings beyond the limitless supply of mercenaries whose cranial areas will be irreparably harmed.

*** (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: March 10-12

Warner Bros is hoping audiences will want to go into beast mode this weekend as Kong: Skull Island is unveiled in theaters. It’s the only new wide release and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Kong: Skull Island Box Office Prediction

The ape tale should top the box office, but if it comes in below my high 40s forecast, the second weekend of Logan (which opened fantastically this past weekend) could give it a run for its money. I do expect the acclaimed Wolverine tale to dip a bit more than 50%.

Get Out experienced a very small decline in its sophomore frame and should continue its terrific run in third place. The Shack was a hit with faith based crowds and I have it with a smallish decline in its second weekend with The Lego Batman Movie dropping to fifth.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Kong: Skull Island

Predicted Gross: $48.6 million

2. Logan

Predicted Gross: $42.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)

3. Get Out

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (representing a drop of 30%)

4. The Shack

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. The Lego Batman Movie

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)

Box Office Results (March 3-5)

Logan, with its terrific reviews and buzz from being Hugh Jackman’s final appearance in his signature role, posted a sizzling $88.4 million debut. That’s the third highest X-Men opening of the nine pictures of the franchise. It came in at the most optimistic level of expectations and blew away my meager $68.6M forecast.

The other story of the week: the remarkable hold of Get Out, which dipped only 15% and earned $28.2 million in weekend two (besting my $20M prediction). Its ten day total is at $78 million – or over 15 times its budget to put it in perspective.

Oh… and the third story of the weekend was the robust third place premiere of The Shack. It earned a sturdy $16.1 million, outshining my $9.7M estimate.

The Lego Batman Movie dipped to fourth with $11.7 million, in line with my $11.1M prognosis for a total of $148M. John Wick: Chapter 2 was fifth with $4.8 million (I said $5.6M) to brings its tally to $82M.

Debuting quietly in sixth was YA thriller Before I Fall with just $4.6 million, a tad under my $5.3M estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: March 3-5

The month of March at the box office claws its way into theaters with three new releases premiering. They are: Hugh Jackman’s final appearance as Wolverine in Logan, faith-based drama The Shack, and teen thriller Before I Fall. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/23/logan-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/24/the-shack-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/25/before-i-fall-box-office-prediction/

Logan, with some of the greatest reviews of the X-Men franchise, should easily top the charts. It’s worth noting that my mid-60s forecast is a bit lower than some others. We shall see.

I’m expecting sub double digit openings for the other two newcomers, with The Shack landing in fourth and Before I Fall in sixth.

Critically lauded horror pic Get Out had a spectacular opening (more on that below) and I expect a rather small sophomore decline. It should have no trouble placing second. That leaves other holdovers The Lego Batman Movie in third and John Wick: Chapter 2 at fifth.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend:

1. Logan

Predicted Gross: $68.6 million

2. Get Out

Predicted Gross: $20 million (representing a drop of 40%)

3. The Lego Batman Movie

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. The Shack

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

5. John Wick: Chapter 2

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)

6. Before I Fall

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (February 24-26)

With its red hot buzz and perfect Rotten Tomatoes score, Jordan Peele’s Get Out got off to a scorching start with a $33.3 million opening – blazing past my meager $16.3M prediction. With a budget of reportedly under $5 million, this is a massively profitable venture for Blumhouse.

The Lego Batman Movie slipped to second to $19.2 million, a bit shy of my $22.1M projection for a three week total of $133M.

John Wick: Chapter 2 was third with $9.3 million, in range with my $8.4M forecast for a $74M overall gross. The Great Wall was fourth in its second weekend with $9.1 million (I said $8.2M) for a lackluster tally of $34M. Fifty Shades Darker rounded out the top five with $7.7 million in weekend #3, under my $9.9M prediction. Its total is at $103M.

Two other newcomers failed to make any impression with moviegoers. The animated Rock Dog was 11th with $3.7 million, in line with my $4.4M prediction. Action thriller Collide was DOA in 13th with $1.5 million, not even my matching my $2.1M estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dh1RqnYi5hM

Box Office Predictions: February 24-26

It’s a weekend where the bulk of movie lovers attention may be focused on Sunday’s Oscar ceremony and not what’s playing in the multiplex itself. There are three releases going wide: Jordan Peele’s race themed horror pic Get Out, animated musical comedy Rock Dog, and Felicity Jones led action thriller Collide. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/15/get-out-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/15/rock-dog-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/15/collide-box-office-prediction/

The real question in this last weekend of February, as I see it, is how the critically acclaimed Get Out performs. I have it in the mid teens, which almost certainly means a second place showing to The Lego Batman Movie in its third frame. However, the horror flick certainly has breakout potential and could go higher (61% of my blog readers believe my estimate is too low).

Both Rock Dog and Collide appear headed for dismal showings. My respective predictions of $4.4 million and $2.1 million have them outside of the top five.

And with that, the top 5 predictions for what should be a rather slow weekend:

1. The Lego Batman Movie

Predicted Gross: $22.1 million (representing a drop of 32%)

2. Get Out

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

3. Fifty Shades Darker

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of $51%)

4. John Wick: Chapter 2 

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 48%)

5. The Great Wall

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 55%)

Box Office Results (February 17-20)

It was a rather ho-hum Presidents Day Weekend as three newcomers all failed to connect with audiences. The Lego Batman Movie easily maintained the top spot with $42.7 million over the four-day holiday, under my $49.4M estimate. Its total has built up to $107M.

Fifty Shades Darker stayed in second with $22.6 million, in line with my $21.3M prognosis for an overall $91M gross.

Matt Damon’s expensive action epic The Great Wall debuted at a disappointing third with $21.5 million, shy of my $25.6M prediction. With mediocre reviews, look for it to crumble quickly.

John Wick: Chapter 2 was fourth with $18.9 million (I said $21.5M) for a two-week tally of $61M.

The Ice Cube/Charlie Day Fist Fight was punched out by audiences with only a $14.1 opening in fifth, well under my generous $25.1M guesstimate.

Finally, the Gore Verbinski directed A Cure for Wellness was DOA in 11th place with just $5 million (less than half my $10.2M forecast).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…