Tag: Joel Edgerton

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 4 Edition

We are a bit over a month away from Oscar nominations coming out (January 14th) and it’s time to ramp up my predictions for what and whom will be nominated in the eight top races. I’m adding the two Screenplay categories (Original and Adapted) for the first time and the plan is to make weekly Oscar predictions each weekend until nominations come out. With each race, I’ll inform you what’s changed since the previous predictions post.

And with that, let’s get to predicting, shall we?

Best Picture

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Inside Out

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Other Possibilities:

Beasts of No Nation

The Big Short

Creed

The Danish Girl

Joy

Mad Max: Fury Road

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Steve Jobs

Straight Outta Compton

Changes Since Last Predictions: Bridge of Spies, Inside Out (IN), Joy, Steve Jobs (OUT)

Best Director

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Other Possibilities:

Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

Ryan Coogler, Creed

John Crowley, Brooklyn

Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation

Todd Haynes, Carol

Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

David O. Russell, Joy

Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

Changes Since Last Predictions: George Miller (IN), David O. Russell (OUT)

Best Actor

Matt Damon, The Martian

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

Michael Caine, Youth

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Michael B. Jordan, Creed

Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes

Will Smith, Concussion

Changes Since Last Predictions: NONE

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Other Possibilities:

Emily Blunt, Sicario

Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Changes Since Last Predictions: Charlotte Rampling (IN), Blythe Danner (OUT)

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Other Possibilities:

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Joel Edgerton, Black Mass

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Harvey Keitel, Youth

Jacob Tremblay, Room

Changes Since Last Predictions: Tom Hardy (IN), Idris Elba (OUT)

Best Supporting Actress

Jane Fonda, Youth

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

Joan Allen, Room

Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Kristin Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria

Julie Walters, Brooklyn

Changes Since Last Predictions: Jane Fonda (IN), Joan Allen (OUT)

Best Original Screenplay (first prediction in category)

Bridge of Spies

The Hateful Eight

Inside Out

Love and Mercy

Spotlight

Other Possibilities:

Joy

Sicario

Straight Outta Compton

Youth

Best Adapted Screenplay (first prediction in category)

Anomalisa

Brooklyn

Carol

Room

Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

The Big Short

Creed

The Martian

The Revenant

And there you have it – folks! The next update will come next weekend…

 

Todd’s Oscar Predictions: November Edition

We have arrived at my third round of Oscar predictions for the month of November. Some has changed, some has stayed the same. We’ll go through each of the six major categories one by one…

Let’s go!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This is the one category where I’ve made no changes, though any of the others listed as possibilities could find their way in. Most have Jane Fonda in the mix already, but I’m not quite there yet.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS  in SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Joan Allen, Room

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

Jane Fonda, Youth

Diane Ladd, Joy

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Isabella Rossellini, Joy

Julie Walters, Brooklyn

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

And here we have the most changes of any category! Coming out of nowhere last week was Sylvester Stallone’s acclaimed performance in Creed and as of now, here appears to be a strong contender for a nod and maybe even the win. I’m also including Mark Ruffalo and re-including Idris Elba. Falling out are Benicio del Toro, Robert De Niro, and Tom Hardy, though they all remain possibles. This category has a whole lot of potential nominees, but only five slots available.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for SUPPORTING ACTOR

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Other Possibilities:

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Bradley Cooper, Joy

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Robert De Niro, Joy

Joel Edgerton, Black Mass

Harrison Ford, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight

Harvey Keitel, Youth

Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton

Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight

Jacob Tremblay, Room

BEST ACTRESS

Four slots seem to be rather safe and have been for awhile: Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, Jennifer Lawrence, and Saoirse Ronan. The fifth slot could legitimately be any of the others listed, but for now I’ve removed Carey Mulligan and replaced her with Blythe Danner.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Other Possibilities:

Emily Blunt, Sicario

Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

BEST ACTOR

Only one change here as I currently feel the massive box office success of The Martian will get Matt Damon in. That takes Michael Caine out. Watch out for Will Smith, though, even though I don’t yet have him in the final  cut.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTOR

Matt Damon, The Martian

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

Michael Caine, Youth

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Michael B. Jordan, Creed

Will Smith, Concussion

BEST DIRECTOR

Two changes here as I believe Danny Boyle may miss out and George Miller won’t be the wild card pick I predicted in October. This puts David O. Russell and Ridley Scott in.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for DIRECTOR

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

David O. Russell, Joy

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Other Possibilities:

Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

Ryan Coogler, Creed

John Crowley, Brooklyn

Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation

Todd Haynes, Carol

Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

BEST PICTURE

I am still predicting nine nominees out of the possible five-ten and I’ve made two changes. I’m putting Carol back in the mix and The Martian in for the first time. That leaves out Bridge of Spies and The Danish Girl, though both remain major contenders. It’s worth noting that Steve Jobs, due to its disastrous box office performance, is not even close to a shoo in  and it could fall off.

TODD’s PREDICTIONS for PICTURE

Brooklyn

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Joy

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

Beasts of No Nation

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Creed

The Danish Girl

Inside Out

In the Heart of the Sea

Mad Max: Fury Road

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Straight Outta Comption

And that does it for my November Oscar predictions, folks! I’ll have the December predictions up shortly before Christmas…

The Gift Movie Review

Many psychological thrillers have memorable moments, but are hampered by cliched third acts that are utterly predictable. Joel Edgerton’s The Gift is more the inverse. For a long portion of its deliberate running time, it feels like every other genre title that was much more popular over two decades ago (think The Hand That Rocks the Cradle, Single White Female, Unlawful Entry). They’ve been called the “Blank from Hell” movies. Fatal Attraction = Mistress from Hell. Roommate, Cop, Nanny from Hell.

The Gift is the Old Friend from Hell. Yet not really an old friend. Simon (Jason Bateman) and Robyn (Rebecca Hall) are a yuppie couple recently relocated to Los Angeles from Chicago. Upon shopping at a home furnishing store, they’re encountered by Gordo (Edgerton, directing himself in his feature debut). He describes himself as a high school acquaintance of Simon’s though Gordo is hardly recalled by him. Gordon’s soon dropping off housewarming presents with notes punctuated by smiley and frowny faces. Twenty years ago when this kind of film thrived, that particular character trait may have seemed odd. Now everyone does it. Don’t worry, though, because Gordo has plenty of other legitimate quirks. He’s socially awkward and seems fixated on Robyn. It gets to the point where Simon must confront him.

And that’s when the hallmarks of this genre are on full display. Missing dog. A pregnancy to complicate matters. Our heroine in the shower, possibly vulnerable. There are hints of a deeper history between Simon and Gordo the Weirdo as he calls him. Side note: Weirdo was Edgerton’s original title (he wrote it too) and it’s much better than The Gift.

When the connection between them is revealed, The Gift stops being a typical entry in the Blank from Hell canon and becomes something far more interesting. It’s just too bad it takes a while to get there. When it does move into genuinely unexpected territory, I found enough to savor to make this just worthy of a recommendation. The trio of lead performers elevate it as well. Edgerton is a perfectly acceptable Weirdo and Bateman continues to show he’s a pro in non-comedic roles, too. While much of The Gift keeps on giving familiar material, the final parts that intensify the character’s relationships and motivations are a welcome surprise.

*** (out of four)

Todd’s October Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

This evening on the blog, we continue forward with my second round of predictions (October edition) for Oscar nominees in the six major categories. Yesterday it was Supporting Actress and now we’re onto Supporting Actor. Since my initial round of predictions over a month and a half ago, much has changed.

In fact, only two of my predicted five nominees from that original prognostication post made the cut this time around: Tom Hardy in The Revenant and Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies. 

Gone are Bradley Cooper in David O. Russell’s Joy and I’ve substituted him for his supporting costar Robert De Niro. It’s worth noting that Russell’s last three films resulted in Supporting nods for Christian Bale in The Fighter (who won), De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook, and Cooper in American Hustle. In other words, Russell’s actors get nominated.

Also out are Harvey Keitel in Youth and Kurt Russell for The Hateful Eight, though both remain possibilities. Word around Hollywood is that Samuel L. Jackson is the standout male performance in Hateful Eight, though it’s unclear at this juncture whether he’ll be campaigned for in lead or supporting.

Joining the fray are Michael Keaton for Spotlight (whose nomination seems the most assured at this juncture) and Benicio del Toro for his acclaimed role in Sicario.

Other possibilities are plentiful, including Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight. If that were to occur and Keaton got recognized as well, it’d be the first time in 24 years that two actors from the same picture were nominated in this category. That was Bugsy when both Harvey Keitel and Ben Kingsley got nods.

This is a very fluid category, as evidenced by the major changes I’ve made since early September and we’ll see if it continues along its unpredictable path when my third round of predictions comes in November.

TODD’S BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS (ROUND TWO)

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Robert De Niro, Joy

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Other Possibilities:

Bradley Cooper, Joy

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Joel Edgerton, Black Mass

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight

Harvey Keitel, Youth

Seth Rogen, Steve Jobs

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight

Jacob Tremblay, Room

I’ll be back with Best Actress tomorrow!

Black Mass Box Office Prediction

Riding a wave of positive buzz generated from film festivals over the weekend, Scott Cooper’s gangster pic Black Mass rolls out in theaters next Friday and the results could be impressive. A true life story focusing on notorious Boston crime kingpin Whitey Bulger, Johnny Depp plays the title character and it’s nabbed him some of the best reviews he’s had in years. There’s even Oscar talk happening, for Depp and possibly the film itself.

The stellar supporting cast includes Joel Edgerton, Benedict Cumberbatch, Kevin Bacon, Dakota Johnson, Adam Scott, Peter Sarsgaard, and Corey Stoll. Mass is currently at a pleasing 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. Most importantly, the pic has been well marketed and represents a real choice for adults after the summer blockbusters are now fading.

While the Maze Runner sequel may capture the attention of younger viewers, I look for Black Mass to have a very healthy start. In fact, I believe the chances of it over performing are greater than the alternative. I think it could exceed $30 million out of the gate, but I’ll put it just under.

Black Mass opening weekend prediction: $27.9 million

 

Oscar Watch: Black Mass

From the moment the first trailer for Black Mass (out September 18) appeared, you could sense that something special might be brewing with Johnny Depp’s portrayal of notorious Boston gangster Whitey Bulger. Those feelings have been confirmed over the weekend as the picture screened at both the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals.

Critical consensus bore one thing out: Depp’s chilling performance is fantastic. Variety went as far to claim it’s his career best work. This reaction made him as instant major contender in the Best Actor race. When I made my initial predictions three days ago, I left him outside the top five. I’m questioning that call. That said, it remains to be seen who among my projected five would move outside the cut to put Depp in. Both Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl and Michael Fassbender in Steve Jobs seem like real contenders. The most vulnerable performer I predicted may be Michael Caine in Youth, though his legendary status will help. The other two I predicted are question marks as their movies have yet to be screened: Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant and Don Cheadle in Miles Ahead. And there’s certainly plenty of time for other actors to emerge. For Depp, after a series of both commercial and critical disappointments (Mortdecai anyone?), the opportunity for Academy voters to vault him into contention could be too enticing to pass up.

As for the film itself, a Best Picture nod or Director nom for Scott Cooper seems far less assured. While its Rotten Tomatoes meter sits at 100%, reviewers are divided as to whether Black Mass is great or merely good. Supporting players Benedict Cumberbatch, Joel Edgerton, and Kevin Bacon may not factor into the mix.

However, this Labor Day weekend made one item very clear: Johnny Depp is a player in this year’s Oscar derby. A big one.

The Gift Box Office Prediction

Joel Edgerton directs, writes, and costars in the psychological thriller The Gift, out Friday and I think it stands a fair shot at becoming a summer sleeper hit. The pic, which also features Jason Bateman and Rebecca Hall, has featured some rather effective trailers and TV spots and it could succeed at bringing in a more adult crowd than your typical product you see in the August frame.

So far reviews have been quite strong and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. None of the key players are box office draws and Bateman is much better known for comedic roles, but the robust marketing campaign could succeed in bringing in a larger audience than anticipated.

I’ll predict The Gift yields positive returns for its studio, STX Entertainment and manages a debut in the mid to high teens.

The Gift opening weekend prediction: $16.8 million

For my Fantastic Four prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/30/fantastic-four-box-office-prediction/

For my Ricki and the Flash prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/31/ricki-and-the-flash-box-office-prediction/

For my Shaun the Sheep Movie prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/01/shaun-the-sheep-movie-box-office-prediction/

Exodus: Gods and Kings Box Office Prediction

Ridley Scott unveils his $140 million Biblical epic Exodus: Gods and Kings this Friday and it’s expected to end the three week reign of The Hunger Games at the box office. How much it makes is an intriguing question.

Christian Bale headlines the tale as Moses with Sigourney Weaver, Ben Kingsley, Joel Edgerton, John Turturro, and Aaron Paul rounding out the cast. Director Scott has seen massive success with ancient tales that include Gladiator but also some failures, which includes Kingdom of Heaven.

Reviews have been very mixed with several being downright negative. It currently stands at 43% on Rotten Tomatoes. Biblical epics, by their nature, often generate controversy and Exodus is no exception. As I see it, the studio would probably love to see Exodus match the $43 million that Noah opened at in March of this year. That is definitely a possibility, but my prediction reflects a belief that Exodus may open around the $34 million that Gladiator accomplished in 2000. I’ll say it gets over that, but not by much.

Exodus: Gods and Kings opening weekend prediction: $35.5 million

For my Top Five prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/06/top-five-box-office-prediction/