Blogger’s Update (10/09): Based partly on its considerable 2500 screen count, I am upping my Terrifier 3 from $9.4 million to $14.4 million. That gives it the #1 slot.
A fascinating weekend lies ahead at the box office as a handful of newcomers try to break out, but they could all fall under $10 million. We have low-budget horror threequel Terrifier 3, behind the scenes showbiz dramedy Saturday Night (expanding in wide release), manga superhero entry My Hero Academia: You’re Next, the Pharrell Williams Lego themed doc Piece by Piece, and a Donald Trump biopic The Apprentice all vying for attention. You can peruse my prediction posts on them here:
This sophomore frame of October is one in which Joker: Folie à Deux was widely expected to dominate the charts for a second time. That is very much in danger after its disastrous premiere (more on that below). The musical mashup of Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga could experience a decline in 75% range considering its toxic word-of-mouth.
If so, that could mean a return to 1st position for The Wild Robot in its third outing. It may only dip in the high 30s or low 40s.
Terrifier 3 may have the best breakout potential among the newbies. I have it placing second just ahead of Joker. That’s a development that would’ve been unimaginable days ago.
I don’t foresee any of the fresh product reaching eight digits with Saturday Night in fourth and holdover Beetlejuice Beetlejuice rounding out the high five. The other three debuting flicks I have slotted 6-7 (Academia, Piece) and 9 (Apprentice) with Academia potentially having the chance for a little more than I’m projecting.
Here’s how I have it playing out with a top 8 this time around:
1. Terrifier 3
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million
2. The Wild Robot
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million
3. Joker: Folie à Deux
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
4. Saturday Night
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
6. My Hero Academia: You’re Next
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
7. Piece by Piece
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
8. Transformers One
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
9. The Apprentice
Predicted Gross: $2.4 million
Box Office Results (October 4-6)
Arriving 5 years to the day behind its billion plus grossing predecessor, Joker: Folie à Deux failed in spectacular fashion with critics and audiences. The sequel from Todd Phillips crashed with $37.6 million compared to my $54.3 million prediction. 2019’s original caught lightning in a bottle with a $96 million burst out of the gate (still the best October start in history) and 11 Oscar nominations. Deux could not measure up and that’s being kind considering it came in nearly $60 million lower. To add insult to injury, many reviews were brutal. Even worse, crowds gave it an awful D Cinemascore grade as they did not love this Joker.
The Wild Robot was second with $18.8 million, in line with my $19.8 million take. DreamWorks Animation’s potential frontrunner for Best Animated Feature has grossed $64 million in ten days as it eyes a potential return to #1 this weekend.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice was third at $10.1 million, a bit under my $11.6 million estimate for a five-week haul of $265 million.
Transformers One held up decently in fourth with $5.3 million (I said $4.4 million). The $47 million three-week total is nothing to brag about.
Speak No Evil rounded out the top five with $2.7 million compared to my $3.2 million projection. In four weeks, it’s made $32 million.
Finally, Lionsgate had another turkey on their hands with Wonder prequel White Bird. It was seventh with $1.5 million. My guess? $1.5 million!
At the 92nd Academy Awards that occurred in February 2020, Joker led the way with 11 nominations and 2 victories for Joaquin Phoenix in Actor and the Original Score. At the 97th ceremony, the story will be much different. Joker: Folie à Deux debuted yesterday. It currently has matching 32% ratings with critics and audiences and a D Cinemascore grade (the worst of 2024 and lower than Megalopolis).
A couple of months ago, Deux was seen as a repeat possibility in Best Picture and for Phoenix and costar Lady Gaga. Now I think it’s a legitimate question as to whether Joker gets any nominations at all. Even with the poor word-of-mouth and incoming subpar box office numbers, some tech races are still viable. However, I would not surprised if it totally blanks. That’s what I’m projecting at the moment.
We have a change in Best Picture with The Room Next Door back in over Saturday Night. There’s been a consistent 5 in Best Actor for weeks, but that’s interrupted with Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) sliding in with Daniel Craig (Queer) falling to sixth. In Supporting Actress, Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) rises over Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).
Speaking of Pérez, there’s uncertainty whether it will contend for Original or Adapted Screenplay. I’ve had it in the former and it now moves to the latter.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+2)
10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-3)
12. September 5 (PR: 14) (+2)
13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7 (E)
8. Mohammad Rasolouf, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)
10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jason Reitman, Saturday Night
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Drew Starkey, Queer
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+1)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Blitz (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. September 5 (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)
9. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay
The Substance
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Queer (PR: 6) (-3)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Piano Lesson
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dahomey
Caught by the Tides
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Flow (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Orion and the Dark (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Daughters (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Union (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Separated
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Anora (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (E)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (+1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+!)
7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Substance (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Blitz (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 10) (+6)
5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maria (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Twisters
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Here (PR: 4) (E)
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Twisters (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Better Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wicked (PR: 7) (-3)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Brutalist
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez
9 Nominations
Blitz
6 Nominations
Anora, Conclave, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, A Real Pain
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Blogger’s Update (10/03): With the announcement that White Bird is only hitting just over 1000 screens, I’m downgrading my prediction from $3.1 million to $1.5 million
Warner Bros hopes Joker: Folie à Deux can approach the gargantuan grosses that its predecessor earned five years ago while Lionsgate has the long delayed Wonder prequel White Bird out this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
A half decade ago, Joker rode a wave of sizzling buzz to a $96 million debut (the best October start of all time), a $335 eventual domestic gross, and an Oscar statue for Joaquin Phoenix. With Lady Gaga joining the mayhem as Harley Quinn, word-of-mouth is more mixed for part Deux and it likely won’t achieve the hotshot premiere of part un. While my mid 50s forecast easily has it topping the charts, that’s over $40 million less out of the gate.
As for White Bird, I expect it to be another significant under performer for distributor Lionsgate who just saw Megalopolis crash and burn (more on that below). My number for Bird puts it just outside the top five.
As for holdovers, The Wild Robot might see a mid to high 40s decline after its solid beginning while Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and Speak No Evil‘s percentage dips should be smaller. The highest plummet in the top 5 (same as this past frame) should belong to Transformers One.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Joker: Folie à Deux
Predicted Gross: $54.3 million
2. The Wild Robot
Predicted Gross: $19.8 million
3. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
4. Transformers One
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
5. Speak No Evil
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (September 27-29)
DreamWorks Animation’s The Wild Robot, with fresh reviews and an A Cinemascore grade, performed impressively with $35.7 million. That’s just ahead of my $33.8 million take and it should play well throughout the next few weeks.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, after three weeks in 1st, slid to second with $16.2 million. That’s a mere 37% decline and beyond my $14.8 million prediction. The sequel has amassed $250 million in four weeks.
The news was more distressing for Transformers One as it plummeted 63% in its sophomore frame to $9.1 million. I was more generous at $11.5 million as Hasbro’s latest underwhelming franchise entry has taken in $39 million in ten days.
Epic Indian Telugu-language action flick Devara: Part 1 opened in fourth with $5.6 million with the second best per screen average in the top 10. I incorrectly had it outside the high five.
Speak No Evil was fifth with $4.2 million (I said $3.4 million). The thriller sits at $28 million after three weeks.
Finally, Francis Ford Coppola’s self-financed Megalopolis (with a reported $120 million price tag) could not overcome mostly middling reviews and audience ambivalence. It was sixth with $4 million compared to my $4.7 million call. With a D+ Cinemascore, I suspect this falls over 65% in its second weekend. Ouch.
When I did my forecast for the 96th Academy Awards around the same late September time frame last year, it yielded nine of the ten eventual Best Picture nominees. The only miss was not having The Zone of Interest in the hopefuls and I had it ranked 11th in other possibilities. It is also worth noting that eventual winner Oppenheimer was ranked #1.
For Best Director, it was four of five with Christopher Nolan correctly atop my chart. Four of five was also the score for Best Actress and Actor and I had victors Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) in first. For the supporting races, both were 3 out of five. In Supporting Actress, Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) was listed in second while Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) was projected highest in Supporting Actor. In the Screenplay derbies, it was 3 of 5 in each with Adapted recipient American Fiction and Original top finisher Anatomy of a Fall both listed 4th of 5.
That history lesson illustrates that the script for the previous Oscars had largely been written several months before nominations were unveiled. Will the 97th ceremony follow a similar pattern?
It sure doesn’t seem like it. I maintain that there’s no clear frontrunner for BP while Oppenheimer was definitely in that position a year ago. Solid to fair cases could be made for Blitz, The Brutalist, Anora, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, or Dune: Part Two to take gold. There’s also no slam dunks thus far in the acting competitions whereas Downey Jr. was kind of a no-brainer at this juncture and Murphy, Stone, and Randolph were in the 1 or 2 positions in their races.
That makes it all the more intriguing as the 2024 season plays out. The big news this week was that TIFF People’s Choice Winner The Life of Chuck will not open until summer 2025. Therefore you’ll see it drop from contention everywhere I had it listed as a possibility below. Last week, I only had Chuck actually being nominated in Adapted Screenplay. It is replaced by Dune.
I considered elevating the unseen Blitz back to first position in BP, but am giving it to The Brutalist still by a hair. It was announced this week that the latter will release on December 20th via A24. There is one change in BP as I’m putting in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain for its initial top 10 appearance at the expense of The Room Next Door.
This week I’m also shutting the door on Tilda Swinton in Best Actress for The Room Next Door with Nightbitch‘s Amy Adams returning to the quintet. I went back and forth about whether to include Adams or Babygirl‘s Nicole Kidman.
You can all view all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (E)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A Real Pain (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+2)
13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)
14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (E)
7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)
9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)
9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Gladiator II
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)
5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+3)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (E)
5. Blitz (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)
8. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)
9. September 5 (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Queer (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Vermiglio (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kneecap (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All We Imagine as Light
Pedro Páramo
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Savages (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daughters (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Skywalkers: A Love Story
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maria (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Anora (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Conclave
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Blitz (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Wicked (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Maria (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)
8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Substance (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maria (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
The Room Next Door
The Life of Chuck
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (E)
8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless
“We’re Back” from Moana 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Civil War
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Better Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)
And that adds up to these numbers generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
Blitz
9 Nominations
The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez
6 Nominations
Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
A Real Pain, Saturday Night
2 Nominations
Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nickel Boys, Wicked, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Arriving five years to the day behind its billion plus grossing predecessor, Joker: Folie à Deux dances into multiplexes on October 4th. Todd Phillips is back in the director’s chair with Joaquin Phoenix reprising his Oscar-winning role as Arthur Fleck. Lady Gaga’s Harley Quinn joins the musical mayhem alongside Catherine Keener, Brendan Gleeson, Zazie Beetz, Harry Lawtey, and Steve Coogan.
A half decade ago, Joker decimated expectations and set records with a $96 million opening on its way to $335 million domestically. Worldwide it amassed a haul of just over one billion bucks and garnered 11 Academy Awards nominations including Phoenix’s victory.
Like the original, Deux was first seen at the Venice Film Festival where reaction was decidedly mixed. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 63% with 54 on Metacritic. Tracking suggests the sequel might not be the phenomenon of what we witnessed in 2019.
This is not expected to top the starting number of Joker. The question is how far it falls under. I suspect the so-so buzz could mean mid 50s and that’s a far cry from its predecessor.
Joker: Folie à Deux opening weekend prediction: $54.3 million
The Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals have all concluded and the Oscar landscape is looking a bit clearer for the 97th edition of the ceremony. Per usual with the festivals, there are films that rise and those that fall. No film rose more than Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice, but Toronto gave us a shocker in the form of Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck. The sci-fi flick based on a Stephen King novella took People’s Choice at the Canadian event. 15 of the last 16 victors of that prize have received a Best Picture nomination including the past 12 in a row. We still don’t know which distributor will buy Chuck and it’s not confirmed to be out this year. For that matter, we also don’t know for a fact that A24’s The Brutalist will make the ’24 calendar. For now I’m assuming both will. That means I’m elevating Chuck from unranked to #11 in my BP possibilities on the outside just looking in.
There was a significant announcement that Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore will be both be campaigned in lead actress for The Room Next Door. That means Swinton enters my quintet in that category with Amy Adams (Nightbitch) dropping. With Swinton leaving supporting, Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) resurfaces there. It has also been confirmed that Saoirse Ronan will vie for Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress in Blitz. I continue to list her a double nominee.
We have a change in Supporting Actor as I’m putting Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) in with Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) falling out of the projected five.
For the last few months, I’ve included 25 BP contenders and 15 for Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions. As I typically do around this time of year, I will condense this to 15 BPs and 10 in the others. Got all that? Good!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-1)
10. TheRoom Next Door (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
12. A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)
13. September 5 (PR: 16) (+3)
14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)
15. A Real Pain (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Queer
Nosferatu
The Apprentice
All We Imagine as Light
Joker: Folie à Deux
The Piano Lesson
Wicked
Juror No. 2
His Three Daughters
A Different Man
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)
8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Jason Reitman, Saturday Night
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Luca Guadagnino, Queer
Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door
Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters
June Squibb, Thelma
Zendaya, Challengers
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night
Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness
Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys
John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door – moved to lead actress
Lesley Manville, Queer
Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown
Toni Collette, Juror No. 2
Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Drew Starkey, Queer
Harris Dickinson, Blitz
Mark Eidelstein, Anora
Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson
John Lithgow, Conclave
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (+1)
5. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Hard Truths (PR: 10) (+1)
10. September 5 (PR: 13) (+3)
Dropped Out:
His Three Daughters
Dídi
Kinds of Kindness
A Different Man
Juror No. 2
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)
7. Queer (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
I’m Still Here
Gladiator II
Nightbitch
Inside Out 2
Nosferatu
The Wild Robot
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)
8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (E)
9. Pedro Páramo (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Simon of the Mountain
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Daughters (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Union (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Anora (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Room Next Door
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 10 (E)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+3)
4. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Conclave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Substance (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Queer
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
“Why Am I Here” from Shirley
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Maria (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
A Complete Unknown
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Here (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
8 Nominations
Blitz
6 Nominations
Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Conclave, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
Maria, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night
2 Nominations
Joker: Folie à Deux, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Life of Chuck, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, Will & Harper
There are some genuine awards related surprises as it pertains to the Venice Film Festival debut for Joker: Folie à Deux today. It is not shocking that the Todd Phillips sequel to his billion plus 2019 grosser is garnering wildly divergent reactions. So did the original. I’m talking about some unexpected housekeeping items. For one, Lady Gaga’s performance as Harley Quinn is said to be a clear Supporting Actress play and not lead. In my updated Oscar predictions post yesterday, I slotted her for the first time (at #5) in Actress. That will obviously change. Another tidbit is that despite Deux being a musical, there doesn’t appear to be any original songs for consideration. I’ve listed a TBD tune in my quintet of forecasted contenders for several weeks. That, too, will be corrected when I updated Academy projections shortly (probably Sunday).
Prior to its October 4th stateside premiere (exactly five years after part one), the follow-up has premiered in Italy just like the last one did. The first Joker started its Oscar run by taking the Golden Lion (equivalent to Best Picture) in Venice. It ended up receiving a ceremony high 11 nominations at the 92nd Academy Awards including Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and several tech races. Joaquin Phoenix received the gold statue in Best Actor eleven years after Heath Ledger won Supporting Actor as the same character in The Dark Knight. The Original Score by Hildur Guõnadóttit was also victorious.
Phoenix is back as the iconic comic book villain along with Gaga, a returning Zazie Beetz, Brendan Gleeson, and Catherine Keener supporting. Even more so than what took place a half decade ago, Folie appears to be drawing even more divisive word-of-mouth. The Metacritic score is 54 based on nearly 25 reviews thus far. Some are calling it brilliant while others are saying this is a huge misfire.
The Academy is unlikely to show the same affection that they did with Joker. BP, Director, and Actor seem improbable. I’ve yet to include Deux in my top 10 picks for BP and that doesn’t appear to be changing. Down the line races like Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, and Original Score (from Hildur again) could occur. Yet the Academy might just ignore this altogether or maybe throw it a bone in one or two of the aforementioned categories.
Back to Gaga. She was nominated in Actress for 2018’s A Star is Born and was expected to be up for 2021’s House of Gucci. She didn’t make the cut for Gucci. Supporting Actress could include heavy hitters like Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez from Emilia Pérez, Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), among others whose films have yet to be unveiled. Gaga is getting good ink as Quinn, but there may not be room for her to get in the door. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
You can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but you can alter your Oscar Predictions and such is the case with Nightbitch. For many weeks, I’ve had Amy Adams perched atop my Best Actress list. The six-time nominee has to get the gold sometime right? After today’s first look, I don’t think this is the vehicle. Perhaps the Toronto Film Festival (where this screens in days) will prove me wrong.
Speaking of festivals, you might have heard that Telluride just concluded as Venice is at its midpoint. As both events tend to do, the awards landscape has been altered due to their premieres. Some pics and performers have risen while others have fallen.
The biggest winner at the time of this publication seems to be Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice. The three hour plus Holocaust survivor drama vaults 20 spots from #23 to #3 in my Best Picture rankings with Corbet in for his direction and Adrien Brody returning to the Actor derby. Mr. Brody knocks out Sebastian Stan in A Different Man. Speaking of Stan, he will also be vying for attention as Donald Trump in The Apprentice. It was confirmed this week that it will be released in October.
Another benefactor, this one from Telluride, is Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night. The solid reaction in Colorado puts it (barely) in my BP hopefuls along with Original Screenplay and Film Editing recognition.
The inclusion of these two newbies knocks out two others that didn’t fare quite as well in their unveilings – Queer and The Piano Lesson. They are both still listed in Other Possibilities but are no longer picks to make the big dance.
Three of the four acting races have new #1s. While Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) is still first in Actor (with Ralph Fiennes from Conclave and Adrien Brody hot on his heels), the aforementioned Adams plummets in Actress. In her place? Mikey Madison from Anora though Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Karla Sofia Gascón are close behind. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) makes her first appearance in the quintet. Please note that Folie will screen in Venice tomorrow so we’ll know more then (keep an eye on the blog for its individual predictions post).
In Supporting Actress, my previous #1 Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) slides three positions with Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) moving up. Her costar Selena Gomez is now in my five as well and that takes out Tilda Swinton in The Room Next Door. I will say deciding between Gomez and Swinton for the 5 spot was basically a coin flip.
The news for Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) and his chances are worse. He goes from 1st to 9th with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) back at one. Guy Pearce in The Brutalist, who would be a first-time nominee, rockets from 15th to 2nd in the race and Stanley Tucci (Conclave) reenters over his costar John Lithgow.
You can read all the movement – and there is plenty of movement indeed – below and my next update will likely come Sunday as more Venice titles screen and Toronto begins!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 23) (+20)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (+2)
12. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (+8)
13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Queer (PR: 7) (-7)
15. The Room Next Door (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Gladiator II (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (-2)
18. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-9)
19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+3)
20. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-6)
21. Wicked (PR: 21) (E)
22. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
23. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Maria (PR: 18) (-6)
25. A Different Man (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Hard Truths
The End
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)
10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-6)
14. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door
Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (-6)
8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-2)
13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 11) (+8)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (-3)
9. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Paul Mescal. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-7)
14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Valeria Golino, Maria
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 15) (+13)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (-8)
10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
11. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 9) (-5)
15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 3) (-12)
Dropped Out:
Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 14) (+9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Dídi (PR: 10) (E)
11. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Substance (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Challengers (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-1)
15. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The End
Maria
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Queer (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (E)
13. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Universal Language (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Evil Does Not Exist
Simon of the Mountain
Uprising
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Savages (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7 (E)
8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Orion and the Dark (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Most Precious of Cargoes
Transformers One
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+1)
4. No Other Land (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Union
Gaucho Gaucho
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Anora (PR: 8) (E)
9. Queer (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Conclave
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Challengers (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
A Complete Unknown
Queer
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maria (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Sasquatch Sunset
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Challengers (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Here
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Wicked
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Conclave (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Queer
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+2)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (E)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
A Quiet Place: Day One
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Twisters (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 6) (-4)
And that works out to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Blitz
8 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
The Brutalist
6 Nominations
Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Conclave
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, Saturday Night
2 Nominations
Maria, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
I’m Still Here, not to be confused with that 2010 mockumentary where Joaquin Phoenix become a rapper, is a Brazilian family drama from Walter Salles. It arrives more than a quarter century after Central Station, which was nominated for Best Foreign Language Film (now International Feature Film) and Actress (Fernanda Montenegro) and two decades behind his acclaimed The Motorcycle Diaries (which won a Best Original Song statue from the Academy).
His first Brazilian language feature in 16 years, Here has premiered at the Venice Film Festival to stellar reviews. Fernanda Torres is getting kudos in the lead role. We don’t know yet how competitive Best Actress will be and Torres could certainly get a push from distributor Sony Pictures Classics. I wouldn’t expect her to be in my projected quintet when I update my picks tomorrow, but I won’t leave her off my list of other possibilities. Torres’s mother happens to be Fernanda Montenegro (now in her 90s) and she appears in Here in what’s said to be a brief role.
Where Here has the best opportunity at Academy exposure is in International Feature Film (assuming it is Brazil’s pick). I’ve had it in my five for a few weeks and the Venice chatter solidifies the notion. I would put it behind Emilia Pérez (if France selects it) and The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany’s choice) as far as winning odds. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In eights days, the Venice Film Festival will get underway followed the next day by Telluride and followed by Toronto the following week. The trio of events, as they always do, kick off a flurry of awards activity and dozens of Oscar Prediction posts on this blog. The fests in Italy, Colorado, and Canada will make the picture for the 97th Academy Awards considerably clearer.
As you peruse the titles listed below, here are just some which will debut at one or more of the festivals: Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The End, Maria, Nightbitch, Babygirl, The Room Next Door, I’m Still Here, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Brutalist, The Fire Inside, Hard Truths, We Live in Time, The Wild Robot, Piece by Piece, and The Last Showgirl.
The plan is for my next update to arrive on Labor Day. By that time, quite a few of these titles will already have eyeballs on them and reviews will be written. Consider this the penultimate forecast before it gets really real.
This update comes with a pair of changes in the supporting fields. In Supporting Actress, Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) enters my quintet with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) dropping out. Speaking of Conclave, John Lithgow is now in my Supporting Actor five over his costar Stanley Tucci.
You can peruse all the movement below as festival season is nearly upon us!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anora (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (E)
12. Saturday Night (PR: 18) (+6)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 12) (-3)
16. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-2)
17. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (-1)
18. Maria (PR: 17) (-1)
19. The End (PR: 20) (+1)
20. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (-1)
21. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 24) (+2)
23. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
24. A Different Man (PR: 21) (-3)
25. Hard Truths (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Fire Inside
Here
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)
9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)
10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)
11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Marielle Heller, Nightbitch
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)
9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (E)
12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Zendaya, Challengers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothèe Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tom Hanks, Here
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Selena Gomez, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (E)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Glenn Close, The Deliverance
Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+7)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (E)
15. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Raci, Sing Sing
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The End (PR: 9) (+1)
9. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Dídi (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Maria (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Challengers (PR: 12) (E)
13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
A Different Man
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12 (E)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 13) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)
3. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Caught by the Tides (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)
8. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)
9. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Uprising (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Kneecap
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Land (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Union (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR 4) (E)
5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anora (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Complete Unknown
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Challengers (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maria (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nightbitch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Queer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Challengers (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
The Piano Lesson
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Wicked (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (-1)
7. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Queer (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Maria
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez
Twisters
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wicked (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Mufasa: The Lion King
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Blitz
8 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
6 Nominations
Gladiator II, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked
2 Nominations
A Different Man, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, Challengers, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, The Outrun, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
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