Watching the recipients of the 81st Golden Globe Awards try to make their way to the stage through a tricky seating chart generated humorous moments of suspense this evening. As far as the winner themselves, there were less surprises. The show, however, wasn’t completely devoid of unexpected victors in the cinematic races. I’ll also add that Will Ferrell and Kristen Wiig’s musical related bit before they presented was easily the comedic highlight in a rather dull show (with some weak hosting from Jo Koy).
I went 12 for 15 in my picks as it turned out not to be the Barbenheimer show. The latter portion of that fresh word in the lexicon was correct as Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer was the most celebrated picture with five Globes: Best Film (Drama), Director (Nolan), Actor in a Drama (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), and Original Score. I correctly picked all of those (as I did all the acting derbies I might add). There’s certainly no reason to think anything has changed with my longtime feeling that Oppenheimer is #1 in the Oscar BP rankings where it has been perched for months.
Four other movies posted two wins. Anatomy of a Fall was responsible for one of my misses as it won Best Screenplay over my Barbie call. That was genuinely unanticipated while its victory for Non-English Language Film was not. This is a nice show for the French mystery as it’s considered a question mark for the Academy’s BP race (tonight helps).
Poor Things took Best Film (Musical/Comedy) in another race where I selected Barbie. As anticipated, Emma Stone was the Musical/Comedy actress winner.
The Holdovers was recognized in Musical/Comedy for Actor (Paul Giamatti) and Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph). For the latter, this could be the start of several podium trips.
Barbie also took a pair of prizes. Yet it didn’t emerge in its highest profile categories. Instead it took Best Song and the newly (and oddly) coined Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement. In short, it was not an overly successful evening for Greta Gerwig’s phenomenon.
Lily Gladstone is your Best Actress (Drama) for Killers of the Flower Moon and you can expect future awards shows will be a showdown between her and Emma Stone.
Finally, my other miss was The Boy and the Heron being named Animated Feature over the favored Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. I still think Spidey is out front for the Oscar, but it could be a real competition.
All in all: a great evening for “enheimer” and Ferrell/Wiig dance moves. Not as much for “Barb”.
In addition to moving to CBS, the 81st Golden Globe Awards also moves to six nominees in their cinematic races this Sunday. Jo Koy hosts the 81st annual telecast with what could be the Barbenheimer broadcast.
There’s a new category via Cinematic and Box Office Achievement with its eight contenders (the rest have the aforementioned six as opposed to a previous quintet).
Readers of the blog know that I spend a whole lot of space speculating on the Oscars. Not so much with the Globes, but I’ll make some quick observations before making my picks along with a runner-up selection.
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s divide of Drama and Musical & Comedy indeed allows Oppenheimer and Barbie to both emerge as victors. The latter seems highly likely to take Musical/Comedy while Oppenheimer faces stiff competition from Killers of the Flower Moon.
In the acting categories, we could find out if certain performers begin a run of domination. This includes Bradley Cooper (Maestro) or Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) for Actor, Lily Gladstone (Killers) or Emma Stone (Poor Things) in Actress, Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) and Ryan Gosling (Barbie) for Supporting Actor, and Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) or Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) in Supporting Actress.
Of course, we can always count on surprises from the Globes. Let’s get to the predictions and I’ll have a recap up after the show!
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, The Zone of Interest
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Motion Picture(Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Air, American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, May December, Poor Things
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Best Director
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Celine Song (Past Lives)
PREDICTED WINNER: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Actress (Drama)
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)
PREDICTED WINNER: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Runner-Up: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Best Actor (Drama)
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
PREDICTED WINNER: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Jennifer Lawrence (No Hard Feelings), Natalie Portman (May December), Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
PREDICTED WINNER: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Runner-Up: Margot Robbie, Barbie
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario), Timothee Chalamet (Wonka), Matt Damon (Air), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Joaquin Phoenix (Beau is Afraid), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
PREDICTED WINNER: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
PREDICTED WINNER: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
PREDICTED WINNER: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Best Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: Past Lives
Best Non-English Language Motion Picture
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves, Io Capitano, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest
PREDICTED WINNER: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: Past Lives
Best Animated Motion Picture
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Suzume, Wish
PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
Best Original Score
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me, “Dance the Night” from Barbie, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
PREDICTED WINNER: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
That means that I am picking a Barbenheimer heavy program with these movies winning these numbers of Globes:
5 Wins
Oppenheimer
4 Wins
Barbie
2 Wins
The Holdovers
1 Win
Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
There’s a trio of pics debuting or expanding this weekend, but they could all find themselves outside of the top five. A24’s slasher comedy Bodies Bodies Bodies hopes to build on its impressive NY/LA limited release while the Diane Keaton comedy Mack & Rita and survival thriller Fall premiere. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
Both Bodies and Fall are expected to hit around 1200 screens. That’s low and limits their range. Let’s start with Fall as its lack of promotion could find it failing to even make $1 million. I’m projecting $1.2 million and that obviously leaves it well outside the high five (and ten for that matter).
Bodies is a bit tougher to figure out. In six venues in our nation’s two largest cities, it took in a robust per screen average of nearly $40k. Yet as I mentioned in my individual post, I’m skeptical that this plays well in the middle of the country. My $4.4 million estimate also leaves it on the outside looking in.
Mack & Rita also seems to be suffering from lack of awareness. I’m only going with $2.3 million as this should come and go in multiplexes quickly.
With the newcomers out of the way, that leaves holdovers to talk about. Sony’s Bullet Train with Brad Pitt opened right on track with reasonable expectations (more on that below) and it should have no trouble remaining in the top spot again. With minimal competition, it could slide in the mid 40s in the best case scenario. That said, if you look at action titles of early August past, a drop in the low 50s to mid 50s seems just as likely. DC League of Super-Pets should stay in second… with a caveat.
If Top Gun: Maverick continues percentage drops in the teens (and there’s no reason to think it won’t), it should re-enter the top 5. Nope could drop out altogether with Thor: Love and Thunder and Minions: The Rise of Gru battling it out for the 4 spot alongside Bodies Bodies Bodies. There’s even a chance Maverick could go from #6 to #2.
Here’s how I see the charts playing out and I’ll expand it to a top ten this time around:
1. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million
2. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
3. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
4. Thor: Love and Thunder
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
5. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
6. Bodies Bodies Bodies
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
7. Nope
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
8. Where the Crawdads Sing
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
9. Elvis
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million
10. Easter Sunday
Predicted Gross: $2.5 million
11. Mack & Rita
Predicted Gross: $2.3 million
Box Office Results (August 5-7)
Bullet Train came in right where I thought it would with $30 million (my call was $29.7 million). While it certainly didn’t exceed expectations, it’s a perfectly decent opening and its overseas grosses are solid. The B+ Cinemascore indicates a somewhat fair-weather reaction so it’s worth monitoring how it holds up. As mentioned, the lack of competition should help.
DC League of Super-Pets had a stiffer sophomore fall than I anticipated with $11 million compared to my $13.6 million take. The two-week total is a muted $44 million.
Nope saw a drop of over 50% once again with $8.5 million, in range with my $8.1 million prediction. The three-week tally is approaching nine digits at $97 million.
Thor: Love and Thunder was fourth at $7.7 million (I said $8.3 million) as the MCU sequel became the highest pic in the franchise by eclipsing 2017’s Ragnarok. Total is $316 million.
Minions: The Rise of Gru rounded out the top five with $7.1 million (I went with $6.9 million) for a $334 million haul.
Finally, the Jo Koy comedy Easter Sunday struggled in its start in 8th place with $5.4 million, just under my $5.6 million estimate.
Blogger’s Update (08/03): My projection for Easter Sunday has taken a downward turn. Instead of $8.2M, I’m now only projecting $5.6M and that puts it outside of the top five – with Minions: The Rise of Gru now getting the 5 spot.
Brad Pitt looks to conduct Bullet Train to a sizeable debut while the Jo Koy comedy Easter Sunday looks be a sleeper hit. They are the newbies as August dawns at the box office. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
There’s no question that Train (from John Wick maker David Leitch) will hit #1. It’s all about by how much. Some estimates have this in the $40 million range, but I’m skeptical. In the last couple of weekends, both Nope and DC League of Super-Pets have come in under expectations (more on those developments below).
While Pitt certainly has star power, I feel like buzz needs to pick up and fast for this to reach $40 million. Perhaps my projections will rise before Thursday evening. For now, I have Bullet a shade under $30 million.
As for current champ Super-Pets, a dip in the mid to high 30s seems likely and that should place it firmly as the runner-up.
The truly interesting competition could be for the #3 slot. Easter Sunday could surprise and vastly overperform and end up #2. Or it could be outside of the top five with below $8 million. I’m putting at $8.2 million in its basket and here’s where it could be awfully close. If Nope has another plummet close to 60% and Thor: Love and Thunder sees a mid to high 30s drop, the grosses for the trio could be separated by basically nothing.
That’s what I’m thinking will occur and here’s how I think the top 5 ends up looking:
1. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $29.7 million
2. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
3. Thor: Love and Thunder
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
4. Nope
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
5. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
Box Office Results (July 29-31)
The Warner Animation Group won’t be barking loudly about the earnings of DC League of Super-Pets as it came in the very low end of its range. With a muted $23 million, the animated superhero canine teaming of Kevin Hart and Dwayne Johnson is a disappointment (coming in well under my $33.6 million prediction). The only silver lining could be lack of competition for the month. That could mean meager declines until the bulk of kiddos go back to school.
Nope, as anticipated with its lackluster B Cinemascore grade, cratered in its sophomore frame with $18.5 million (a smidge ahead of my $17.5 million projection). Jordan Peele’s sci-fi horror tale is up to $80 million, though it will come in well under his predecessors Get Out and Us.
Thor: Love and Thunder was third with $13.1 million, besting my take of $11.4 million. The MCU four-quel has hammered home $301 million.
Minions: The Rise of Gru took fourth at $10.9 million (I said $10.3 million) to brings it haul to $320 million.
Top Gun: Maverick rounded out the top five at $8.4 million, right on target with my $8.3 million guesstimate. The airborne phenomenon achieved another milestone at $650 million. It will soon become the 7th largest domestic earner in history when it vaults over Titanic ($659 million) and Jurassic World ($652 million).
Finally, When the Crawdads Sing held up solidly in weekend #3 with $7.5 million (I went with $6.9 million). The mystery based on a bestseller is past the half century mark with $53 million.
Blogger’s Update (08/03): I am revising my projection downward from $8.2M to $5.6M as buzz for Easter Sunday simply hasn’t seemed to pick up since last week.
If it’s early August, it must be Easter Sunday at the box office! Not so much, but that’s the title of the upcoming comedy out August 5th. The film serves as the first major cinematic starring vehicle for Jo Koy, known for his Netflix standup specials. Jay Chandrasekhar, a member of the Broken Lizard troupe that helmed Super Troopers and its sequel, directs. Costars include Jimmy O. Yang, Tia Carrere, Brandon Wardell, Tiffany Haddish, and Lou Diamond Phillips.
Playing a struggling comedian visiting the family for the holiday, Sunday is hoping to book a diverse audience. Koy’s Filipino roots could bring in a demographic underserved at multiplexes.
Early prognoses have this getting past double digits by a slim margin. That sounds doable to me and it could even have the capacity to go higher. I could also see it falling just under that and there’s where I’m currently at.
Easter Sunday opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million
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