My Top 50 countdown of SNL cast members begins with a glue guy who was present in one of the show’s finest eras. That would be Chris Parnell. Whether rapping about Jennifer Garner or Britney Spears or rapping alongside Andy Samberg in the iconic “Lazy Sunday” short or lead singing beside a cow-belling Will Ferrell, Parnell was always a welcome presence on the show.
A utility player who would also provide hilarious moments on Tina Fey’s 30 Rock, Parnell kicks off the list and #49 is coming your way shortly!
Chris Parnell
Years on the Show: 1998-2006
If you missed my prelude mentioning cast members who just missed the cut, you can find it here:
On July 26th, Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman are back in their signature roles and for the first time together in the aptly titled Deadpool & Wolverine. The superhero mashup is the 34th title in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the second sequel to 2016’s smash Deadpool. Shawn Levy directs with a supporting cast including Emma Corrin, Matthew Macfadyen, Morena Baccarin, Rob Delaney, Leslie Uggams, Brianna Hildebrand, Karan Soni, Shioli Kutsana, Lewis Tan, Aaron Stanford, Tyler Mane, Jon Favreau (back as Happy Hogan), and apparently Jennifer Garner reprising her Elektra role.
This pairing has long been looked at as the likely contender for summer 2024’s biggest blockbuster. That’s a position that might be unattainable domestically due to the Inside Out 2 phenomenon. However, it is expected to achieve the highest premiere of the season and the year.
Jackman hasn’t donned the claws since 2017’s Logan and that return helps feed the buzz. This should have no trouble giving Wolverine his largest start which is currently held by 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand ($102 million).
The same logic applies to Mr. Pool. The original made $132 million out of the gate and $363 million overall eight years ago. 2018’s follow-up took in $125 million with $318 million total stateside.
Tracking has this at around $165 million, but I’ll uptick it closer to $180 million. My exact call gives it the 16th strongest opening ever between Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and Beauty and the Beast.
Deadpool & Wolverine opening weekend prediction: $176.1 million
Hitting Netflix today is Shawn Levy’s The Adam Project, a sci-fi adventure that re-teams the director with his Free Guy lead Ryan Reynolds. Costars include Mark Ruffalo, Jennifer Garner, Walker Scobell, Catherine Keener, and Zoe Saldana.
Focused on a 12-year-old who meets his fighter pilot future self, many reviews are kindly comparing this Project to 80s era Spielberg product. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a decent though not overly impressive 70%.
Since it’s available for some theatrical showings, this will be eligible for Oscar consideration. Levy and Reynolds, as mentioned, collaborated just last year for Free Guy and that resulted in a box office hit and a slot in the Visual Effects race (where it will almost certainly lose to Dune in two weeks).
Based on the write-ups, Free Guy appears to be a flashier experience than Adam and I doubt this manages to garner any awards attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It’s been a bumpy ride for Nickelodeon’s animated feature WonderPark, but it finally hits screens this Friday. Originally titled AmusementPark and scheduled for release last summer, the pic comes with a reported $100 million price tag. The film’s director Dylan Brown was fired by the studio in early 2018 due to various sexual harassment claims. Newcomer Brianna Denski provides the lead voiceover role along with familiar faces such as Jennifer Garner, Matthew Broderick, Kenan Thompson, Ken Jeong, Mila Kunis, and John Oliver.
The box office grosses for Park, considering its hefty price tag, might not be amusing at all. It doesn’t help that CaptainMarvel will be in its sophomore frame as it also appeals to family crowds. I believe this will make low double digits for its start and that would amount to a costly flop for Paramount.
WonderPark opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million
Jennifer Garner is back to her action roots when Peppermint arrives in theaters next weekend. The revenge tale casts the former “Alias” star as a vigilante avenging a double family tragedy. While Garner has been out of this particular genre for a bit, director Pierre Morel has not. He’s best known for making the first Taken a decade ago, in addition to FromPariswithLove and TheGunman. Costars include John Gallagher Jr., John Ortiz, and Method Man.
Peppermint will hope to bring a female and action oriented audience to the fold. Some of its anticipated crowd could be busy watching TheNun instead. You have to go back to 2005’s Elektra for the last time Garner was headlining a genre flick like this.
For a decent comp, I’m going all the way back to 2007 when TheBraveOne with Jodie Foster opened in the same time frame to $13.4 million. That actually sounds just about right, give or take a million or two.
Peppermint opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million
Love, Simon hopes to enchant moviegoers when the romantic dramedy debuts next weekend. The film, based on a 2015 YA novel by Becky Albertalli, focuses on a closeted gay teen (Nick Robinson) growing up in the South. Jennifer Garner and Josh Duhamel play his parents with Greg Berlanti (known mostly for his TV work) directing.
From the producers of The Fault in Our Stars, the pic has garnered positive critical response as it stands at 87% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Simon has received some publicity for its subject matter and the mostly strong reviews should help.
On the high end, I could see the 20th Century Fox production nabbing about $17 million. However, I believe a lower double digits roll out is more likely as it will hope for word-of-mouth to sustain it in subsequent weekends.
Love, Simon opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million
As the Telluride Film Festival has wound to a close, we have another contender in one particular category to discuss. Wakefield is a family drama from director Robin Swicord, a screenwriter known for works such as TheCuriousCaseofBenjaminButton. It’s based on a short story from E.L. Doctorow.
Reviews for the film have been mostly strong. Yet its only chance at Academy recognition is likely with its star, Bryan Cranston. The three-time Emmy winner for “Breaking Bad” got his first Oscar nod just last year with Trumbo.
Critics have signaled this is another highly powerful performance and Telluride has entered his name into the Best Actor discussion over the Labor Day weekend.
Next weekend, the family comedy Nine Lives attempts to answer important queries such as…
Did Kevin Spacey lose or a bet or something?!?!?
The pic casts the two time Oscar winner and star of the acclaimed “House of Cards” as a rich businessman who experiences an accident that traps him into the body of a cat…
No seriously. What does distributor EuropaCorp have on Spacey???
Costars include Jennifer Garner and Christopher Walken and directorial duties are handled by Barry Sonnenfeld (who’s had his share of hits with the Men in Black and Addams Family franchises)…
For that matter, what is Sonnenfeld doing directing this??? I mean, he did Wild Wild West, but still…
Who knows? Maybe Nine Lives will turn out to be a classic family comedy, but it sure doesn’t look like it judging from the trailer, which I thought might be a Funny or Die spoof or something when I first viewed it…
Mr. Spacey – if you’re doing this movie against your will, send us a signal or something…
I’ll predict this makes about a million bucks or so for each life in the title and decent odds that President Underwood spends conversations int the future trying to live it down.
Nine Lives opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million
Arriving the week before Easter, the Christian themed drama Miracles from Heaven is out on Wednesday and hopes to bring in a faith based audience. Based on a true story and bestselling novel by Christy Beam, Jennifer Garner stars as a mom whose young daughter suffering from a rare disorder experiences a miraculous cure. Costars include Kylie Rogers, Martin Henderson, and Queen Latifah.
Miracles arrived amidst a series of Christian dramas that includes Risen, The Young Messiah, and God’s Not Dead 2 on April 1. There are signs that this could be the best performer. The novel has a following and this seeks to capitalize on its pre Easter release date.
I’ll predict Heaven achieves a mid teens gross over the traditional weekend and could reach above $20M over the five day rollout.
Miracles from Heaven opening weekend prediction: $15.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $20.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my The Divergent Series: Allegiant prediction, click here:
Four new movies make their debuts on Friday at the box office – Robert Downey Jr.’s The Judge, the Steve Carell/Jennifer Garner family comedy Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day, the horror retelling Dracula Untold, and steamy thriller Addicted. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:
The question is: can any of them make current #1 Gone Girl disappear from the top spot? It’s certainly possible as The Judge, Alexander, and Dracula could all exceed my estimates and all stand at least a chance of opening atop the charts. Addicted, on a meager 800 screens, is highly unlikely to even crack the top five.
However, I believe Gone Girl will manage to stay #1, despite it serious competition. Annabelle, after a fantastic debut (more on that below), should suffer the same large fall in its sophomore frame that most horror titles do.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Gone Girl
Predicted Gross: $24.2 million (representing a drop of 35%)
2. Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
3. The Judge
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
4. Annabelle
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (representing a drop of 60%)
5. Dracula Untold
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million
**My Addicted projected gross of $4.5M should put it in eighth place.
Box Office Results (October 3-5)
The debuts of David Fincher’s acclaimed Gone Girl and Conjuring horror prequel Annabelle injected some much needed life into the box office and created the biggest October weekend of all time!
As predicted, Gone Girl took top honors with $37.5 million, just below my $39.6M projection. This is Fincher’s highest debut of all time and clearly audiences were ready for the much buzzed about adaptation of Gillian Flynn’s bestselling novel. I expect it to perform well in the coming weeks and it should easily blast past $100M.
I did not give that demonic doll Annabelle nearly enough credit as it opened just behind Girl with a magnificent $37.1 million – miles ahead of my small $21.2M prediction. This is easily the best horror opening of 2014 and bodes extremely well for that Conjuring sequel coming in October of 2015.
Denzel Washington’s The Equalizer fell to third with $18.7 million in weekend two, holding up better than my estimated $16.7M. The action thriller has earned $64 million in ten days and should have no problem passing the century mark.
The animated pic The Boxtrolls dropped to fourth with $11.9 million, in line with my $11.4M projection. The decently performing kiddie pic has earned $32 million in two weeks and should finish with around $65M.
The Maze Runner held up well in weekend three with $11.6 million – more than my $9.8M estimate. The new YA franchise has taken in $73M thus far and will also become a member of the $100M club.
Finally, Nicolas Cage’s Left Behind posted an unimpressive opening of $6.3 million, below my $7.6M prediction. Look for this one to disappear faster its lead actor’s hairline.
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