Tag: Jeffrey Donovan

National Champions Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s Note (12/09): National Champions is only being released on approximately 1100 screens. I am revising my projection from $3.2 million to $1.6 million.

Director Ric Roman Waugh switches from Gerard Butler action flicks to an inspirational sports drama with National Champions on December 10th. The basketball tale stars Stephan James, J.K. Simmons, Alexander Ludwig, Lil Rel Howery, Tim Blake Nelson, Andrew Bachelor, Jeffrey Donovan, David Koechner, Kristin Chenoweth, Timothy Olyphant, and Uzo Aduba.

Mr. Waugh most recently was behind the camera for Butler fests Angel Has Fallen and Greenland. His latest comes with a meager budget (a reported $9 million) and minimal buzz surrounding it. Originally slated for Thanksgiving weekend, it was pushed back two weeks.

If something like King Richard couldn’t swing a victory at the box office, that probably doesn’t bode well for this. I’ll project Champions struggles to make half its budget back (or even a third) in the opening weekend.

National Champions opening weekend prediction: $1.6 million

For my West Side Story prediction, click here:

West Side Story Box Office Prediction

Wrath of Man Box Office Prediction

Jason Statham stomps back into multiplexes on May 7th with Wrath of Man. The revenge action thriller marks his fourth collaboration with Guy Ritchie who directed him in Lock, Stock, and Two Smoking Barrels, Snatch, and Revolver. Costars include Holt McCallany, Jeffrey Donovan, Josh Hartnett, and Scott Eastwood.

The MGM release finds Statham trying to carry a picture to solid grosses. In recent years, he’s mostly been seen in the role of Shaw in the Fast and Furious franchise and its spin-off. If you go back to 2013’s Homefront that primarily relied on his star power, it resulted in an opening weekend just south of $7 million. Wrath could manage to exceed that.

Wrath could post grosses in the range of recent Liam Neeson genre fare like Honest Thief and The Marksman, which both started with earnings in the $4 million range. I’ll give it a fairly significant bump from that since venues are in a better spot than when those flicks premiered.

Wrath of Man opening weekend prediction: $8.3 million

For my Here Today prediction, click here:

Here Today Box Office Prediction

Let Him Go Box Office Prediction

Focus Features is hopeful that an adult audience will turn out this weekend with their dramatic thriller Let Him Go. From director Thomas Bezucha, Diane Lane and Kevin Costner headline as a couple mourning the loss of their son and trying to save their grandchild from a dangerous situation. Costars include Lesley Manville, Will Brittain, and Jeffrey Donovan.

Originally slated for August before the inevitable COVID-19 delay, Go has screened for critics and the results are pretty positive. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 74% based on nearly 20 reviews. Costner has been particularly visible as of late with strong ratings for his Paramount Network TV show Yellowstone. In a different reality, the pic could serve as shrewd counter programming for older viewers who might turn out.

The obvious question: will they do so during these times? The decent critical reaction might help, but I question whether this gets beyond $2 million out of the gate. I’ll put it right at that number and anything above would likely be considered a pleasant surprise.

Let Him Go opening weekend prediction: $2 million

Honest Thief Box Office Prediction

Liam Neeson is a notorious bank robber trying to go good in the aptly titled Honest Thief, one of the few major theatrical releases hitting screens this month (and 2020 for that matter). The action pic is directed by Mark Williams with a supporting cast including Kate Walsh, Robert Patrick, Anthony Ramos, Jeffrey Donovan, and Jai Courtney.

The Open Road production should see a decent number of screens (probably 2000+) as there’s just not much fresh product in the marketplace. Neeson, of course, began a run of similar genre fare over a decade ago with the release of the surprise hit Taken. The grosses have dwindled in recent years. 2019’s Cold Pursuit managed just $11 million for its start.

We are in different times with smaller expectations in this COVID world. For example, this weekend’s The War with Grandpa starring Robert De Niro appears headed for an opening weekend take in the $3-4 million range. I’m not sure Thief makes off with quite that amount, but it might be close.

Honest Thief opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

Oscar Watch: Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil, and Vile

An eagerly anticipated premiere at the Sundance Film Festival occurred yesterday with the screening of Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil, and Vile. Set for release on Netflix this year, the true life crime thriller casts Zac Efron as notorious serial killer Ted Bundy. Joe Berlinger, who’s known primarily for documentaries (his sole fictional work is the maligned horror sequel Book of Shadows: Blair Witch 2) directs. The filmmaker also made an extensive documentary about Bundy that’s up on the aforementioned streaming service this weekend. Costars in Vile include Lily Collins, Kaya Scodelario, Jeffrey Donovan, Jim Parsons, and John Malkovich.

Early reviews are mixed and its Rotten Tomatoes score is presently at 67%. Yet critics seem to agree on one thing and that’s the terrific work of Efron in the lead. Some suggest it could be a career changing performance. I know that the concept of Efron nabbing an Oscar seems far-fetched. Yet if Netflix can put together a solid campaign and depending on how competition plays out in 2019, you never know. The company did prove in 2018 that they’re now a factor with the Academy (see multiple nominations for Roma and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs).

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch – Sicario: Day of the Soldado

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom isn’t the only high-profile sequel to a 2015 release coming to a theater near you this month. Sicario: Day of the Soldado follows up on the critically acclaimed Denis Villeneuve crime drama that garnered three Oscar nominations in that year. Soldado debuts a week from tomorrow and reviews are already out.

The verdict? Somewhat mixed as it stands at 65% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time. That’s a pretty far cry from the 93% that its predecessor earned. Interestingly, I’ve seen at least two critical reactions that compare it to Rambo: First Blood Part II. Go figure. Even with its great buzz from reviewers, 2015’s Sicario missed out on the big nominations, including Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and Benicio del Toro for Supporting Actor. The pic did receive nods for the Cinematography of Roger Deakins, the late Johann Johannsson’s Score, and Sound Editing. Deakins does not return here and he finally won a long deserved statue for last year’s Blade Runner 2049. Villeneuve was busy with 2049 as well and Stefano Sollima takes over directorial duties here.

Bottom line: the Soldado reaction leaves it as an extreme long-shot for any recognition, while part 1 found itself more in the mix.

Sicario: Day of the Soldado Box Office Prediction

Not your traditional summer sequel involving superheroes, dinosaurs or animated characters, Sicario: Day of the Soldado arrives in theaters next weekend and hopes to serve as counter programming to said seasonal blockbusters. The pic is a follow-up to 2015’s Sicario, Denis Villeneuve’s critically acclaimed crime thriller that garnered three Oscar nominations. Benicio del Toro and Josh Brolin (this summer’s reigning sequel king) reprise their roles from the original, though Emily Blunt does not appear (she’s been busy with A Quiet Place and Mary Poppins Returns). New costars include Isabela Moner, Jeffrey Donovan, Catherine Keener, and Matthew Modine. As for Villeneuve, he’s moved onto Arrival and Blade Runner 2049 and Italian director Stefano Sollima is now on board. The original’s screenwriter, Taylor Sheridan (who also is responsible for Hell or High Water and Wind River), is back penning this sequel.

Sicario opened in the fall of 2015 and its first wide release weekend brought in $12.1 million with an eventual gross of over $46 million domestically (it earned $85 million total worldwide against a reported budget of $30 million). Soldado may manage to slightly outpace that debut number of part 1 and a sequel is apparently already in the works. That premiere could put it in a battle for third place with the weekend’s other newcomers (Uncle Drew) and behind Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2.

Sicario: Day of the Soldado opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million

For my Uncle Drew prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/19/uncle-drew-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: LBJ

More Toronto Film Festival action as Rob Reiner’s LBJ has screened. The biopic of our 36th President casts Woody Harrelson in the title role with Jennifer Jason Leigh as Lady Bird. Other cast members include Richard Jenkins, Bill Pullman, and Jeffrey Donovan as JFK. The pic has yet to secure to a fall 2016 release date, but it will likely get some sort of qualifying awards run before year’s end. It will probably come up fruitless.

LBJ has received decent reviews, but they don’t suggest it will be any sort of player in Picture or Director. Any Oscar chatter for this political drama was more geared toward the performances. Early reviews have suggested Harrelson does a commendable job in the role, even if more than one critic has pointed out a total lack of physical resemblance. Leigh was nominated last year for Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight and a consecutive nod seems doubtful.

Where LBJ could suffer most in the minds of voters is that it could be looked at as the second best film this year about the man. HBO’s All the Way with Bryan Cranston earned plenty of Emmy nominations. The big screen version of LBJ faces an improbable road to do the same.

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