50 years after parlaying its “little movie that could” status to a Best Picture Oscar victory over heavyweights like All the President’s Men, Network, and Taxi Driver, a movie about its making looks to punch its own ticket with awards voters. Peter Farrelley’s I Play Rocky has debuted at the Toronto Film Festival prior to a November release with Anthony Ippolito as Rocky star and writer Sylvester Stallone. Costars include AnnaSophia Robb, Toby Kebbell, P.J. Byrne, Stephan James, Jay Duplass, Tracy Letts, and Matt Dillon.

Word-of-mouth from our northern neighbor indicates that this Rocky recounting, like the source material, is quite the crowdpleaser. Critics are more mixed. The early RT score is 60%. Eight years ago, Farrelly’s Green Book premiered in Toronto, ended up taking the coveted audience prize, and eventually took home Best Picture at the 91st Academy Awards. It is a BP win that is now considered one of the weaker results in recent ceremonies.

I Play Rocky is a fascinating case study for prognosticators. The reviews aren’t overly strong. However, if this can nab the same TIFF hardware that Farrelly’s earlier title did, all bets are off and this could materialize in BP. An impressive box office run could assist and that’s certainly a possibility.

I’m skeptical that it makes the cut right now. If it does, Adapted Screenplay or Casting nods could follow. Where Rocky may have its best shot is Best Actor where Ippolito’s work is said to rise far above just an impersonation. He would face off against a seemingly crowded ring of competitors. I doubt I’ll have this predicted in BP or Actor in my imminent next update though it’ll be ranked higher in both than any time before. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…