September 29-October 1 Box Office Predictions

After the worst box office weekend of 2023, Hollywood hopes to rebound with a quartet of new releases. We have sci-fi action pic The Creator from Gareth Edwards, the return of Jigsaw in Saw X, animated canine sequel PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie, and the wide expansion of the GameStop stock dramedy Dumb Money. My detailed prediction posts on all of them can be accessed here:

The newcomers should manage to populate the 1-4 slots. The Creator seems poised for #1 though I’m projecting it’ll fall under $20 million for a so-so high teens start.

As for the runner-up position, it could be either of the sequels. The Saw franchise seems to have run out of steam in recent years. My low double digits estimate means a third place start as I see PAW getting into the low teens.

Dumb Money has done fair business in limited release and the expansion might mean mid single digits for fourth position. The lone holdover in the top five should be unlikely three-week champ The Nun II.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. The Creator

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million

2. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

3. Saw X

Predicted Gross: $15.7 million

4. Dumb Money

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

5. The Nun II

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

Box Office Results (September 22-24)

Neither Hercule Poirot last weekend nor Jason Statham and Sylvester Stallone could dethrone The Nun II from a third weekend atop the charts. The horror sequel edged Expend4bles with $8.5 million, a little above my $7.5 million take. The three-week total is $69 million.

Expend4bles was a huge disappointment in second with only $8 million compared to my $12.8 million prediction. The nine year break between sequels probably didn’t help, but I would’ve thought it could at least hit $10 million.

A Haunting in Venice had a scary 56% drop for third in its sophomore frame with $6.3 million. I was a bit more generous at $7.2 million. The ten-day tally is a weak $25 million.

The Equalizer 3 was fourth with $4.9 million, on target with my $4.7 million forecast for $81 million overall.

Barbie rounded out the top five with $3.2 million (I said $3.1 million) for a 2023 best $630 million in ten weeks.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 was sixth with $3 million. I went with $2.6 million and the romantic comedy threequel has grossed $23 million after three weeks.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

September 22-24 Box Office Predictions

Jason Statham and Sylvester Stallone look to top the charts as Expend4bles, the fourth entry in the action franchise, is the only new wide release this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

I have it just under the teens and that’s a far cry from the mid 30s/high 20s premieres that parts 1 and 2 achieved. It’s also below the $15.8 million that The Expendables 3 made in 2014. That said, given the weak box office frame happening, it should be enough for a #1 debut.

Just as the competition for #1 was a photo finish this past weekend (more on that below), The Nun II and A Haunting in Venice should duke it out for the runner-up spot.

Nos. 4 and 5 should go to holdover threequels The Equalizer 3 and My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3. However, Barbie might manage to stay fifth depending on the Greek drop and the fact that it’s playing on IMAX screens this weekend.

Here’s how I think it’ll shake out from 1-6:

1. Expend4bles

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

2. The Nun II

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

3. A Haunting in Venice

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

4. The Equalizer 3

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

6. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (September 15-17)

In a minor upset, The Nun II managed to remain #1 for a second weekend. That upends the conventional wisdom that A Haunting in Venice would claim the top slot. With a better than expected 55% fall (decent for the horror genre), The Nun II made $14.5 million compared to my $10.9 million projection. The scary sequel has made $56 million in two weeks.

A Haunting in Venice, the third Kenneth Branagh entry in his Hercule Poirot series, was a close second with $14.2 million. That’s right on track with my $14.6 million take. Considering last year’s Death on the Nile struggled as well, I wouldn’t anticipate seeing the mustachioed detective for a fourth mystery.

The Equalizer 3 was third with $7.2 million, in line with my $7 million call. Denzel Washington’s alleged capper to his franchise has made $73 million in three weeks.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 saw a sophomore frame decline above 50% with $4.7 million (I was more generous at $5.9 million). Total is just $18 million.

Barbie rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.6 million) to bring its nine-week haul to $625 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Expend4bles Box Office Prediction

Over nine years have passed since the seasoned action stars of The Expendables franchise have been onscreen. That changes on September 22nd with the rather strangely titled Expend4bles. It is the fourth entry of the series that’s seen diminishing returns with each release. Scott Waugh directs and cast members reprising their roles are Jason Statham, Sylvester Stallone, Dolph Lundgren, and Randy Couture. New players to the mix include Curtis “50 Cent” Jackson, Megan Fox, Tony Jaa, Iko Uwais, Jacob Scipio, Levy Tran, and Andy Garcia.

In 2010, the original feature exceeded expectations with a nearly $35 million opening weekend and $103 million overall domestic tally. Two years later, part 2 ebbed slightly with a $28 million start and $85 million total. By 2014, audiences were growing weary and it didn’t help that part 3 had a PG-13 rating. The Expendables 3 made just over $15 million in its premiere and only $39 million when all was said and done.

It’s a little surprising that the franchise is coming back at all. The R rating from the first two is back, but the grosses should still be rocky. Expend4bles may be lucky to make what its predecessor did out of the gate. I think it will probably fall short.

Expend4bles opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million

Meg 2: The Trench Box Office Prediction

Keeping up with the summer 2023 traditions of dropping the The from its title (Haunted Mansion) and being a follow-up to a 2018 predecessor (Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, Insidious: The Red Door, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One), Meg 2: The Trench is in theaters on August 4th. Ben Wheatley takes over directorial duties from Jon Turteltaub with Jason Statham reprising his role as a battler of giant ocean creatures. Costars include Wu Jing, Sophia Cai, Page Kennedy, Sergio Peris-Mencheta, Skyler Samuels, and Cliff Curtis.

Five summers ago, The Meg premiered in August and easily exceeded expectations. Despite so-so reviews, audiences were ready for a shark fix. It opened with $45 million and an eventual $145 million domestic haul. When factoring in bountiful international earnings, The Meg made more than half a billion.

Warner Bros is probably banking on overseas cash for profitability. I’m not sure stateside crowds are exactly chomping at the bit for this sequel. While it should do respectable biz, it may lose some of its demographic to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. I’m expecting that to have a stronger opening than this. The Trench might be lucky to take in $30 or even $25 million.

Meg 2: The Trench opening weekend prediction: $24.5 million

For my Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem prediction, click here:

Fast X Box Office Prediction

Heroes from the MCU and DCEU join the large Furious family when Fast X speeds into multiplexes on May 19th. The tenth official feature in the franchise (11th counting spin-off Hobbs & Shaw) arrives less than two years behind F9. Those newcomers to the fold are Captain Marvel Brie Larson and Aquaman Jason Momoa. Another fresh face to the series is director Louis Letterier, best known for The Transporter and Now You See Me. The many returnees include Vin Diesel, Michelle Rodriguez, Tyrese Gibson, Chris “Ludacris” Bridges, Nathalie Emmanuel, Jordana Brewster, John Cena, Jason Statham, Sung Kang, Scott Eastwood, and Charlize Theron. Rita Moreno also joins the party.

Fast X is the penultimate pic with the (allegedly) final installment hitting in 2025. In 2015, Furious 7 had the high dollar peak when it premiered with $147 million and an eventual $353 domestic gross. Part of that franchise best performance was because it paid tribute to the late Paul Walker (who co-headlined with Diesel in four previous entries). In 2017, The Fate of the Furious started with $98 million and ended with $225 million. Predecessor F9 from 2021 managed $70 million out of the gate and $173 million overall.

One could argue that F9 was hindered two summers ago by the COVID pandemic. That could be proven if X is marked by a larger opening. My hunch is that it’ll kick off on pace with it and maybe even a little behind. That would give it the lowest series beginning (excluding the $60 million from Hobbs & Shaw) since 2006’s The Fast and the Furious: Toyko Drift.

Fast X opening weekend prediction: $67.8 million

March 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Ghostface terrorizes NYC in Scream VI, Adam Driver fights dinosaurs in 65, and Woody Harrelson is ordered to coach a basketball team with intellectual disabilities in Champions. They are the newcomers hitting screens this Friday and my detailed prediction posts on the trio can be accessed here:

Just as Creed III smashed its franchise best record this past weekend (more on that below), Scream VI could be poised for the same. To do so, it would need to slash past the $34 million achieved by Scream 3 in 2000. I’m projecting it will do so with room to spare.

Creed III should fall to second in round 2. A mid to high 50s decline could give it a clean $25 million after its fantastic start.

65 appears likely for a third place start. Yet I’ve got the dino action pic barely topping $10 million. Considering its reported $90 million price tag, that would be a troubling premiere for the Sony property.

I’m not anticipating much out of Champions and my estimate ties it with the third frame of Jesus Revolution. That would mean holdovers Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and Cocaine Bear would be in a close contest for the four and five spots.

Here’s how I envision it looking:

1. Scream VI

Predicted Gross: $42.6 million

2. Creed III

Predicted Gross: $25 million

3. 65

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million

4. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

5. Cocaine Bear

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

6. Jesus Revolution

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

7. Champions

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

Box Office Results (March 3-5)

The month of March began with a potent punch at multiplexes as Creed III amassed $58.3 million. I way lowballed it at $39.2 million. Marking the directorial debut of its star Michael B. Jordan, it easily outpaced its predecessors. For context – Creed II, over the five-day Thanksgiving frame in 2018, made $55 million. In a month filled with potential blockbusters, the return of Adonis a promising pace.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania fell to second after two weeks on top with $12.8 million. I was more generous at $14.6 million. The 60% drop was another troubling development for the threequel. Its total is $187 million.

Cocaine Bear was third with $11.1 million in its sophomore outing compared to my $13.2 million take. The 52% decline isn’t too shabby for its genre as the ten-day tally is $41 million.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village started in line with expectations in fourth with $10.1 million. I was close with $9.8 million. Expect a hefty dip in the range of 70% or more coming up.

Jesus Revolution rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $8.4 million. I had it raised higher at $11.3 million. The $30 million two-week gross remains rock solid.

Finally, Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre re-teaming Guy Ritchie and Jason Statham meekly rolled out in seventh with $3.1 million (I said $4 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 3-5 Box Office Predictions

Creed III looks to KO all competitors as the Japanese animated episodic effort Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village and Guy Ritchie’s action comedy Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Michael B. Jordan makes his directorial debut in the third feature in the Creed franchise and ninth in the Rocky cinematic universe. It is the first not to feature Rocky himself Sylvester Stallone. However, reviews are strong and I see no reason why this wouldn’t continue the muscular grosses. The first two Creed flicks opened over long Thanksgiving frames. Part III could manage the highest three-day start at just under $40 million.

Swordsmith is a head scratcher. In 2021, Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba the Movie: Mugen Train astonished forecasters with $21 million in its first weekend. Swordsmith is not a sequel. Instead it combines episodes from a TV show related to the franchise. I’ve yet to see a theater count so that could alter my take. If it manages close to half of what Train accomplished, it would place in the top five.

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre, the latest collaboration between Ritchie and Jason Statham, seems like it is being dumped into multiplexes and my meager $4 million projection leaves it in sixth.

As for holdovers, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania experienced a massive second weekend dip (more on that below). The third frame drop-off shouldn’t be as disastrous (perhaps a bit over 50%). Cocaine Bear and Jesus Revolution both over performed in their premieres. The Revolution sophomore decline may only be in the high 20s with Cocaine being cut in the low to mid 40s.

Here’s how I envision the top six looking:

1. Creed III

Predicted Gross: $39.2 million

2. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

3. Cocaine Bear

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Jesus Revolution

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

5. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

6. Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre

Predicted Gross: $4 million

Box Office Results (February 24-26)

The #1 spot came without bragging rights as Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania suffered the largest second frame fall of all the 31 MCU entries. At 70%, the Paul Rudd threequel made $31.9 million. I was slightly more generous at $34.2 million. The ten-day tally is $167 million and it will be the best earner of the Ant-Man trilogy. It still scored a record that Disney/MCU can’t be thrilled about.

Universal, on the other hand, can celebrate their marketing campaign for Cocaine Bear as it paid off with $23.2 million for second place. That’s well above the rosiest predictions and considerably beyond my call of $14.3 million.

Faith-based drama Jesus Revolution continued over performances for the genre at $15.8 million in third. I was more skeptical with only $8.7 million. With an A+ Cinemascore, this could be blessed with smallish declines in the coming weeks.

Avatar: The Way of Water was fourth with $4.8 million (I said $5.4 million) to bring the eleven week gross to $665 million.

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish rounded out the top five with $4.1 million. I went with $4.6 million and the animated sequel has amassed $173 million.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre Box Office Prediction

Guy Ritchie and Jason Statham’s violently comedic cinematic partnership continues on March 3rd with Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre. The spy pic reunites the director and lead nearly two years after their fourth collaboration Wrath of Man. Costars include Aubrey Plaza, Josh Hartnett, Cary Elwes, Bugsy Malone, and Hugh Grant (who has appeared in Ritchie’s The Man from U.N.C.L.E. and The Gentlemen).

Fortune has not been paved with a smooth road to domestic release. It was first slated for stateside distribution in early 2022. However, the film’s depiction of Ukrainian baddies scuttled the premiere due to the nation’s conflict with Russia. Lionsgate picked up the rights and recently announced the early March output. It has already been out in numerous territories with $30 million in the bank. Reviews are so-so with 65% on Rotten Tomatoes.

This hasn’t had much time for a spirited marketing campaign. In May of 2021, Wrath of Man managed just over $8 million when theaters were deep in the midst of the pandemic. However, it debuted on nearly 3000 screens while Fortune is pegged for around 2000.

There’s also Creed III which should siphon away plenty of potential moviegoers. I believe the tale of Fortune‘s gross will be a mid single digits start.

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre opening weekend prediction: $4 million

For my Creed III prediction, click here:

For my Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village prediction, click here:

F9 Review

Make no mistake. We don’t watch the Fast and Furious movies because they have any resemblance to the real world. For a franchise that I cannot imagine was envisioned to reach nine entries deep, we can park our logic immediately and settle in for a thrill ride. Surprisingly it’s a formula that’s usually worked (certainly at the box office and often with the quality of the product). In F9, the luster has gathered rust. This is the first Fast feature since part 4 that I wouldn’t recommend as a guilty pleasure. We’ve reached the long-lost brother stage of the storyline. We also have characters blasting into outer space. So it’s time to stop being polite about what’s going on in this fading fantasy world.

Returning director Justin Lin (who made parts III-VI) and his cowriter Daniel Casey have swapped out ex-wrestlers turned thespians. Gone is Dwayne Johnson (a result of a feud with Vin Diesel), who brought a jolt starting in Fast Five. Tagging in is John Cena as the aforementioned and previously never mentioned sibling Jakob Toretto. As we are told in overdramatic and overlong flashbacks, he played a role in the late 80s racing death of his father. This doesn’t sit well with brother Dom (Diesel) and the two haven’t been on speaking terms since. Jakob reacts as most would with the family estrangement by becoming an international mercenary and obtaining a deadly computer system that will wreak global havoc. His employer is the son of a dictator (Thue Erstad Rasmussen) who’s working with part 8’s hacker bad girl Cipher (Charlize Theron).

The return of the banished brother causes Dom to interrupt his farm life seclusion with wife Letty (Michelle Rodriguez) and their 5-year-old son. The band, including Roman (Tyrese Gibson), Tej (Chris Bridges), and Ramsey (Nathalie Emmanuel) reassemble for the forthcoming sequences where automobiles do things they have no earthly business doing. Also back are the thought to be dead Han (Sung Kang) and a trio of street racers from Tokyo Drift who are now (somehow) rocket scientists. Jordana Brewster (as Dom and Jakob’s sister Mia) hops a flight home. This is where I’ll address a sensitive issue. When Paul Walker died in 2013, the filmmakers were faced with the unenviable task of dealing with his character Brian who served as co-lead for the previous entries. They handled it deftly in Furious 7. However, in a saga that constantly beats the drum of helping your teammates, the explanation of Brian simply being retired and not taking part in the action strains credibility. We’re told he’s babysitting while wife Mia is away. I know it might seem silly to discuss credibility in a Fast flick, but it is an unfortunate minor distraction.

F9 takes too long to get its motor running. The 143 minute runtime (bogged down by those flashbacks of young Dom and Jakob) is a momentum stopper. Part of the intrigue involves a super powerful magnate (think more than fridge quality grade) that whips anything in its path towards it. It’s cool the first time we see the hurling. And then we witness it again and again. Cena has shown considerable comedic chops elsewhere. That magnetism is nowhere to be found here. Dwayne Johnson is missed as is Jason Statham as sparring partner Shaw. Theron, Kurt Russell as government agent Mr. Nobody, and Helen Mirren as Shaw’s mum are barely seen (though the latter’s brief appearance is kind of a hoot).

What we’re left with is a mopey family dynamic that the franchise didn’t need. Roman’s character brings self-reference to the screenplay, often commenting on the ridiculousness of everything – how come no one ever gets a scratch on them? As I said, that doesn’t matter much when we can mindlessly settle in and enjoy it. F9 doesn’t achieve that like the bulk of its predecessors. Put another way, my tank was half full for parts V-VIII and now it’s half empty. By the time Roman and Tej enter moonwalking territory, it should feel ludicrous in a positive way. Instead we’ve had to slog through over two hours of make it up as you go along nonsense to get there.

** (out of four)

June 4-6 Box Office Predictions

The first box office frame of June brings a battle of horror sequels as Hollywood basks in the glow of a profitable holiday weekend. With A Quiet Place Part II surpassing expectations, it should be poised for a loud sophomore frame. The competition comes from The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, the eighth picture in the billion dollar franchise’s cinematic universe. We also have DreamWorks Animation’s Spirit Untamed, a spinoff of the Netflix series and kinda sorta sequel to 2002’s Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron. You can find peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Box Office Prediction

Spirit Untamed Box Office Prediction

It feels a bit strange to predict Devil will experience the lowest overall opening of the entire series, but that’s where I’ve landed. I can’t help but wonder if Warner Bros would want a little more daylight between its debut and the sophomore frame of Quiet if they had a do-over. My forecast of just under $20 million should put it in second place unless Cruella has a remarkable hold.

As for Emily Blunt and company, it’s worth noting that the original Quiet Place fell only 34% in its follow-up outing. The sequel may dip a tad further, but a gross in the mid 20s to even low 30s is on the table. Cruella should be #3 in the lower teens range. I don’t have much faith in Spirit and my meager estimate has it in fourth. Raya and the Last Dragon should round out the top five.

So it’s horror sequels and family entertainment and different kinds of spirits in the top five this weekend and here’s how I see it all transpiring:

1. A Quiet Place Part II

Predicted Gross: $28.4 million

2. The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million

3. Cruella

Predicted Gross: $13 million

4. Spirt Untamed

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. Raya and the Last Dragon

Predicted Gross: $1.6 million

Box Office Results (May 28-31)

Originally slated for March 2020, moviegoers proved they were willing to wait for A Quiet Place Part II. John Krasinski’s critically heralded sequel posted a COVID era best Memorial Day weekend debut of $57 million. That easily outshines my $43.6 million projection. Studios must be rejoicing in this encouraging sign for the summer season ahead.

Disney’s Cruella with Emma Stone also opened to pleasing numbers with $26.5 million (ahead of my $22.7 million estimate). Despite being on Disney Plus as well for a premium price, parents and kids turned out for the Mouse Factory’s latest live-action update of an animated classic.

Holdovers populated the 3-5 slots and it was close. Raya and the Last Dragon was third at $2.8 million (I went lower at $1.6 million). Its total is $51 million. Jason Statham’s Wrath of Man took fourth with $2.7 million (I said $2.4 million) for $22 million overall. Spiral was fifth after two weeks at #1 with $2.6 million (under my $3.2 million prediction) for a $20 million tally.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…