The culmination of this iteration of Laurie Strode (Jamie Lee Curtis) battling Michael Myers arrives on October 14th with Halloween Ends. Said to be Curtis’s final appearance in the 44-year-old franchise (though I’m sure Myers will manage to return in some form), David Gordon Green is back directing along with cowriter Danny McBride. It comes a year after Halloween Kills and four years behind Halloween which began the trilogy. It’s the 13th overall entry in the series overall. Costars include James Jude Courtney and OG Nick Castle doubling up again as the iconic slasher, Andi Matichak, Will Patton, and Kyle Richards.
2018’s Halloween was a juggernaut with a $76 million opening and $159 million eventual domestic haul. Kills still killed, but to a lesser degree with a $49 million start and $92 million overall take. Like its predecessor, Ends will be simultaneously available on Peacock.
In addition to the streaming option that could siphon away viewers, horror fans have had plenty to enjoy lately (Barbarian and Smile for example). That said, there’s obviously a built-in base here.
I do expect diminishing returns though not close to the disparity between 2018 and 2021. Mid to high 40s is where I see it and considering the reported $20 million budget, that’s a profitable cut for Universal.
Halloween Ends opening weekend prediction: $47.6 million
In the turbulent months that followed the terrorist attacks of 9/11, domestic audiences needed some escapism at the box office. In the Christmas season of 2001, they found it with Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone and Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring.
By summer 2002, moviegoers turned out in record-setting droves for the first big screen treatment of an iconic superhero.
20 years later, that’s one thing that hasn’t changed as Spidey continues to dominate the charts. It all started with a memorable upside down kiss. Before we go there, there’s plenty more to discuss for the cinematic summer of two decades past.
As I do every season on the blog, I’m recounting the top 10 hits, other notable features, and flops from 30, 20, and 10 years ago. If you missed my post covering 1992, it’s right here:
When Adam Sandler remade Frank Capra, the result was another blockbuster for the star and a needed one after his previous pic Little Nicky was a rare commercial flop.
9. Minority Report
Domestic Gross: $132 million
The first and still only collaboration between Tom Cruise and Steven Spielberg is a prescient sci-fi tale and its reputation has grown since its release. It’s my personal favorite film of 2002.
8. xXx
Domestic Gross: 142 million
Riding high off the success of the previous summer’s The Fast and the Furious, Rob Cohen and Vin Diesel reunited for this over the top action flick. A sequel would follow three years later without Diesel’s involvement (Ice Cube starred instead), but Vin would return to the role in 2017.
7. Lilo & Stitch
Domestic Gross: $145 million
This Disney animated effort performed just fine (if not in the stratosphere of some 90s gems) and spawned numerous direct-to-video follow-ups. A live-action version is being planned.
6. Scooby-Doo
Domestic Gross: $153 million
Critics might have thought it was a dog, but crowds lapped up this live-action/animated hybrid based on the very 1970s cartoon. Scoob and the gang would return two years later for part 2. Fun fact: James Gunn of Guardians of the Galaxy fame wrote the script.
5. Men in Black II
Domestic Gross: $190 million
Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones teamed up again for the sci-fi comedic spectacle from Barry Sonnenfeld. This fell short of the original’s $250 million domestic haul and the reviewers weren’t impressed, but that didn’t prevent a third offering that will be discussed in my summer of 2012 post.
4. Austin Powers in Goldmember
Domestic Gross: $213 million
Mike Myers continued to flex his box office mojo alongside Beyonce, Michael Caine, and Mini-Me in this threequel that I believe surpassed the quality of predecessor The Spy Who Shagged Me.
3. Signs
Domestic Gross: $227 million
After the more mixed reaction that Unbreakable garnered, M. Night Shyamalan’s Signs with Mel Gibson and Joaquin Phoenix was more of a return to crowd favorite status. What followed was several pics from him that drew considerably more ambivalent to negative vibes.
2. Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones
Domestic Gross: $302 million
$302 million is just dandy for nearly any movie, but this second prequel from George Lucas fell well short of the $431 million achieved by The Phantom Menace three summers prior. Many consider this the worst of the nine officials episodes. I’m one of them.
Spider-Man
Domestic Gross: $403 million
When Sam Raimi’s spin on the webslinger kicked off the summer, it did so with the largest opening weekend of all time at $114 million (breaking a record that had just been set by the first Potter). Two sequels followed for the Tobey Maguire/Kirsten Dunst trilogy and, as we all know, the character has never left us. Spider-Man: No Way Home recently brought all 3 Spideys (Maguire, Andrew Garfield, Tom Holland) into its MCU Multiverse.
Now let’s move to some other notable titles from the season:
The Bourne Identity
Domestic Gross: $121 million
While outside the top ten, Paul Greengrass’s action thriller with Matt Damon as an amnesiac spy is more influential than the bulk of the flicks above it. Damon would return to the role three times.
The Sum of All Fears
Domestic Gross: $118 million
Right behind Damon is his buddy Ben Affleck who took over the role of Jack Ryan (previously played by Alec Baldwin and Harrison Ford) in the Tom Clancy adapted hit.
Road to Perdition
Domestic Gross: $104 million
His follow-up to Best Picture winner American Beauty, the Depression era crime drama from Sam Mendes cast Tom Hanks against type as a hitman with Paul Newman as his underworld boss. This only nabbed a Cinematography Oscar, but reviews were mostly strong. It also provides a juicy role for pre-007 Daniel Craig.
Insomnia
Domestic Gross: $67 million
Hanks wasn’t the only legend stretching in a villainous turn. Robin Williams memorably did the same as he was pitted against Al Pacino’s detective in this chilly thriller from Christopher Nolan (three years before Batman Begins).
Unfaithful
Domestic Gross: $52 million
Adrian Lyne made a movie about another fatal attraction and Unfaithful earned Diane Lane an Oscar nomination as the cheating wife of Richard Gere.
And now for some movies that didn’t perform so well…
Reign of Fire
Domestic Gross: $43 million
This dragon centered fantasy arrived before Matthew McConaughey and Christian Bale would be Oscar winners a few years later. Critics weren’t kind and the box office failed to generate much fire.
Windtalkers
Domestic Gross: $40 million
John Woo’s financial win streak blew over with this World War II action drama headlined by Nicolas Cage that only managed 32% on Rotten Tomatoes.
K-19: The Widowmaker
Domestic Gross: $35 million
Seven years before her Oscar winning The Hurt Locker, Kathryn Bigelow’s 1960s set submarine thriller with Harrison Ford was a pricey disappointment.
Halloween: Resurrection
Domestic Gross: $30 million
Michael Myers and Jamie Lee Curtis’s Laurie Strode are about to team up for the final (?) time in Halloween Ends in October. In 2002, this was the sequel to the successful Halloween H20 from 1998. This one was not so successful and it’s considered by many aficionados as the weakest of the whole franchise.
Bad Company
Domestic Gross: $30 million
One is a double Oscar winner and the other is one of greatest stand-ups of all time, but this cinematic pairing of Anthony Hopkins and Chris Rock in Joel Schumacher’s action comedy was met with a shrug.
Blood Work
Domestic Gross: $26 million
Ten years after Unforgiven won Best Picture after its summer release, Clint Eastwood’s mystery didn’t work for critics or crowds.
The Adventures of Pluto Nash
Domestic Gross: $4 million
Speaking of legendary stand-ups, Eddie Murphy reached a career low point as sci-fi comedy Nash stands as one of cinema’s most notorious flops. Its budget was a reported $100 million and that’s not a misprint above… it made an embarrassing $4 million.
My updated weekly Oscar predictions goes from 6 categories to 8 with the inclusion of both screenplay derbies! It’s the first time we’ve seen some titles in my possibilities such as Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Nope, The Greatest Beer Run Ever, and Bones & All.
As for changes in the other races, I’m putting Rustin back in BP and that means Empire of Light drops from the top ten. Danielle Deadwyler (Till) returns to my top five in Actress over Cate Blanchett in Tar.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Son (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. She Said (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Empire of Light (PR: 10) (-1)
12. White Noise (PR: 20) (+8)
13. Broker (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Amsterdam (PR: 14) (E)
15. Poor Things (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Decision to Leave (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 17) (-1)
19. Tar (PR: 16) (-3)
20. Elvis (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Next Goal Wins (PR: 22) (+1)
22. Thirteen Lives (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Till (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Aftersun
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (+1)
My first Oscar predictions in the six major categories for the month of June sees Top Gun: Maverick rising 3 spots to #17 in the BP derby. My ten predicted nominees remain the same as do the five estimated individuals in Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. There are changes in Actress with Cate Blanchett (Tar) in my five over Danielle Deadwyler (Till) and in Supporting Actress with Hong Chau (The Whale) being elevated over Vanessa Kirby in The Son. You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Son (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. She Said (PR: 9)
9. The Whale (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Rustin (PR: 11) (E)
12. Broker (PR: 12) (E)
13. Poor Things (PR: 18) (+5)
14. Amsterdam (PR: 14) (E)
15. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Tar (PR: 24) (+8)
17. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 20) (+3)
18. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Thirteen Lives (PR: 16) (-3)
20. White Noise (PR: 15) (-5)
21. Elvis (PR: 17) (-4)
22. Next Goal Wins (PR: 23) (+1)
23. Aftersun (PR: 25( +2)
24. Till (PR: 22) (-2)
25. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Armageddon Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
As May comes to a close and the Cannes Film Festival wraps up, I’m giving you a fresh update in the six major Oscar categories!
In Best Picture, I’m elevating Empire of Light from Sam Mendes into the top ten and that takes Rustin out. The Daniels from Everything Everywhere All at Once vault into Director to the detriment of Sarah Polley for Women Talking.
Empire of Light also benefits in Best Actress with Olivia Colman in over Carey Mulligan from She Said. While Actor and Supporting Actress remain unchanged, there’s two alterations in Supporting Actor with Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere…) and Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) in over John David Washington (Amsterdam) and Tom Hanks (Elvis).
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Son (PR: 5) (E)
6. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Bardo (PR: 8) (+1)
8. She Said (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Empire of Light (PR: 16) (+7)
10. The Whale (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Rustin (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Amsterdam (PR: 11) (-3)
15. White Noise (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Thirteen Lives (PR: 21) (+5)
17. Elvis (PR: 20) (+3)
18. Poor Things (PR: 14) (-4)
19. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (-4)
20. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Armageddon Time (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Till (PR: 18) (-4)
23. Next Goal Wins (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Tar (PR: 17) (-7)
25. Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Don’t Worry Darling
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 15) (+6)
10. Hirokazu Kore’eda, Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 8) (-4)
13. David O. Russell, Amsterdam (PR: 13) (E)
14. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
George C. Wolfe, Rustin
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (E)
9. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 14) (E)
15. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
Tilda Swinton, Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Song Kang-Ho, Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 7 (-3)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 8) (-5)
14. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Joaquin Phoenix, Disappointment Blvd.
Idris Elba, Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 13) (+5)
9. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Whoopi Goldberg, Till (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rooney Mara, Women Talking
Margaret Qualley, Poor Things
Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+4)
Coming off terrific reviews and a sizzling limited rollout, Everything Everywhere All at Once debuts in wide release on April 8th. The sci-fi action comedy comes from Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (known as Daniels) with an acclaimed leading performance from Michelle Yeoh. The supporting cast includes Ke Huy Quan (Short Round from Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and Data from The Goonies!), Stephanie Hsu, Jenny Slate, Harry Shum Jr., James Hong, and Jamie Lee Curtis.
Sporting a 97% Rotten Tomatoes rating, Everything grossed just over half a million bucks on only 10 screens last weekend (that’s a $50k average). It’s fair to assume that the A24 tale will play stronger on the coasts than in between.
That said, the buzz that began at South by Southwest should result in this earning its reported $25 million budget back domestically. I’ll project $7-10 million for the expansion.
Everything Everywhere All at Once opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million
For my Sonic the Hedgehog 2 prediction, click here:
Prior to its theatrical release on March 25th, Everything Everywhere All at Once has premiered at South by Southwest over the weekend. The sci-fi comedy comes from directors Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, who are collectively known as Daniels. This is the follow-up to their acclaimed 2016 surrealist debut Swiss Army Man with Paul Dano and Daniel Radcliffe. Everything features Michelle Yeoh experiencing numerous multiverses of action with a supporting cast including Ke Huy Quan, Stephanie Hsu, Jenny Slate, James Hong, and Jamie Lee Curtis. Quan, by the way, you may know as Short Round from Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and Data from The Goonies.
When the Internet chatter broke last night, lots of bloggers were raving about this unconventional pic with particular praise toward Yeoh. The veteran actress has had acclaimed performances in Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Crazy Rich Asians, but she’s yet to surface for awards attention. The original screenplay (from the filmmakers) is also being touted for its boldness.
That said, this could be a prime example of a movie that has its fervent champions and doesn’t materialize in Oscar discussions (despite inevitable Twitter talk). The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 67% with both Variety and Hollywood Reporter logging so-so reviews. If A24 does mount a campaign, they’ll have supporters but that may not be enough. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Laurie Strode (Jamie Lee Curtis) spends the 12th Halloween experience laid up in a hospital bed after her near mortal injuries incurred from the 11th one. In that sense, Halloween Kills is quite similar to the first official sequel from 1981. The samesies comparisons don’t stop there as this is an inferior follow-up to what came before it. The difference is that the 1978 original was a slasher classic to which all followers have been judged. 2018’s Halloween was not and therefore the letdown isn’t as steep.
Kills takes place (like Halloween II) during the immediate events after its predecessor. Laurie, daughter Karen (Judy Greer), and granddaughter Allyson (Andi Matichak) had left Michael Myers (James Jude Courtney) to burn at her tricked out house. Unsurprisingly, it turns out to be mission unaccomplished as the masked one escapes that space and leaves plenty of dead firefighters in his wake.
While Laurie is recovering from her own stabbing, Michael has his knives out for plenty of other townsfolk in Haddonfield. As you may recall, we are on our third iteration of the killer’s most famous prey reuniting with her predator. The 1981 sequel continued John Carpenter’s storyline and revealed that Laurie is Michael’s little sister. 1998’s Halloween: H20 set their sibling rivalry 20 years later.
By the time David Gordon Green and company came around and another two decades passed, 2018’s Halloween ignored all of that. The familial connection was slashed in favor of Laurie becoming a survivalist and waiting for escaped booby hatch patient Myers to find her. Kills allow for other figures in the ’78 pic to return – Tommy Doyle (who Laurie babysat) is now Anthony Michael Hall. Kyle Richards reprises her role as Lindsey, one of the other kids tormented that night. And we catch up with Sheriff Bracket (Charles Cyphers) and Nurse Chambers (Nancy Stephens). We also spend some unnecessary time with flashbacks to 40 years before that don’t add much (though if you want CG Donald Pleasance, you’re in luck).
The phrase “Evil Dies Tonight” is repeated ad nauseam as the denizens of our Illinois murder spot (led by Tommy) seek to end Michael’s return engagement. Of course, we know that ain’t happening. Halloween Kills is the second of a trilogy that will end (?) with next year’s ambitiously titled Halloween Ends. This has the feel of stopgap viewing with no real payoffs and our star player relegated to the sideline. There are a few garish highlights. I was entertained by the couple Big John (Scott MacArthur) and Little John (Michael McDonald… not that one) who live in Michael’s childhood house of horrors and probably should’ve upped their homeowners insurance. A hospital set scene where the residents chase down another of the escaped mental patients is shot effectively.
Ultimately Halloween Kills, for most of its running time, feels painfully average. It’s more violent than part one… which was actually part II if you ignore that other part II. So I suppose this is part III when ignoring nine other movies. The gimmick of Laurie coming back (again) had its pleasures in 2018. Tommy and Lindsey coming back in the mix doesn’t really cut the mustard. Michael cuts the tracheas and tendons with dutiful impassioned restraint. It seldom rises above the mediocrity where most of this series has dwelled since part one (the real one).
Jamie Lee Curtis is back battling Michael Myers in Halloween Kills while Ridley Scott’s medieval drama The Last Duel with Matt Damon, Ben Affleck, Jodie Comer, and Adam Driver also debuts. These are the new offerings in the mid October frame as No Time to Die enters its sophomore frame following a less than expected start. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the fresh offerings here:
It has been two straight weeks of me either grossly underestimating (Venom) or significantly overestimating (Die) the newbies. So let’s see what happens with Halloween, shall we? I’m going with a low to mid 40s take and that would be well under the $70M+ that its 2018 predecessor made (Kills is curiously available for streaming on Peacock). Of course, given my October track record, watch it make $60 million or more. I gotta get something on the money in October though… right??
As for The Last Duel, the less than anticipated haul for 007 was further evidence that pictures geared toward older viewers continue to struggle. With scant awards buzz, I’m projecting Duel barely gets to double digits and that should mean a fourth place showing.
Back to Bond. 2015’s Spectre dropped 52% in its second frame and I see no reason why Craig’s finale wouldn’t dip about the same. Venom may fall in the mid 50s in weekend 3 with The Addams Family 2 rounding out the top five with the smallest decline (mid to high 30s) of the bunch.
Here’s how I see the top 5 looking:
1. Halloween Kills
Predicted Gross: $41.2 million
2. No Time to Die
Predicted Gross: $25.8 million
3. Venom: Let There Be Carnage
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million
4. The Last Duel
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million
5. The Addams Family 2
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
Box Office Results (October 8-10)
Well, we all get carried away sometimes. The fantastic premiere for Venom and the hoopla surrounding Craig’s swan song got me thinking No Time to Die was capable of achieving a COVID era best start of $94.1 million. I was dead wrong. Die managed just the fourth best output of its star’s five features. The $55.2 million debut didn’t approach the vicinity of Skyfall ($88 million), Spectre ($70 million), or Quantum of Solace ($67 million). Only Casino Royale‘s $40 million fell under it. Theories will abound. Was six years (COVID delays were abundant) too long a break? Perhaps. As mentioned, it likely didn’t help that older moviegoers are still seemingly reluctant for a multiplex engagement. Die‘s saving grace is overseas grosses in line with expectations. Yet it’s hard to spin the fact that the 25th 007 adventure came in at the absolute lowest range numbers that prognosticators foresaw.
Venom: Let There Be Carnage was second with $31.7 million, not quite hitting my $33.7 million estimate. The $141 million ten-day tally is very impressive as it looks to reach $200 million by the end of its domestic run.
The Addams Family 2 took in $10.1 million in its second weekend, ahead of my $9.2 million projection for $31 million overall.
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings was fourth with $4.3 million (I said $3.4 million) and it’s up to $212 million.
Finally, The Many Saints of Newark crumbled after its weak beginning. The $1.4 million gross (I went with $1.8 million) brought its puny earnings to $7 million.
Arriving one year after its COVID delay, Halloween Kills stalks theaters October 15th. The 12th film in the nearly 45-year-old franchise, it’s a direct sequel to 2018’s Halloween, which served as a follow-up to 1978’s original (therefore ignoring everything that came in between). Got all that? David Gordon Green returns to direct. So do Jamie Lee Curtis, Judy Greer, Andi Matichak, Will Patton, and, of course, Nick Castle as Michael Myers. Anthony Michael Hall, Thomas Mann, and Kyle Richards are newcomers.
Three Octobers ago, Halloween blew away expectations with a $76 million opening gross and $159 million overall domestically. The debut weekend alone made it the highest earning feature in the series.
Universal Pictures recently made the surprising choice to simultaneously release this in cinemas and on the Peacock streaming service. I’m not so sure how much that hurts its chances in multiplexes (Peacock still isn’t on the level of its better known competitors). However, it doesn’t help.
Reviews for Kills aren’t as laudatory as part 1… err part 2 (or part 11… I suppose). The 2018 effort nabbed 79% on Rotten Tomatoes while this sits at 57%. Critical reaction shouldn’t determine its fate either. I do think the buzz surrounding Curtis’s return has dissipated. This should contribute to a lower premiere and I suspect low to mid 40s is where this ends up.
Halloween Kills opening weekend prediction: $41.2 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 