And it has come down to this. On Thursday, the Academy (barring no further delays) is expected to unveil the contenders for their 97th ceremony. For nearly a year, I’ve been speculating about who and what will be nominated. Over the past few days, I penned deep dives on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Now it’s time for the speculation to end.
Thank you, blog readers, for perusing dozens and dozens of forecast updates and individual posts on the pictures in contention.
Let’s get to it! Here are my predictions for all feature-film categories with a runner-up named in each.
BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
A Real Pain
The Substance
Wicked
Runner-Up: Sing Sing
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Edward Berger, Conclave
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Runner-Up: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Runner-Up: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Runner-Up: Daniel Craig, Queer
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariane Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Runner-Up: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance
Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Kneecap
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Vermiglio
Runner-Up: Flow
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Moana 2
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Daughters
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Sugarcane
Will & Harper
Runner-Up: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST FILM EDITING
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Anora
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist
Challengers
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
Runner-Up: The Wild Robot
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
“Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
Runner-Up: Gladiator II
BEST SOUND
Blitz
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Wicked
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Twisters
Runner-Up: Wicked
That works out to a final tally of these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Conclave
7 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Wicked
5 Nominations
Anora, Nosferatu, The Substance
3 Nominations
A Real Pain
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Gladiator II, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio
I will, of course, have reaction up Thursday with how I did and some commentary.
Nominations for the 78th BAFTA Awards, airing February 16th, were unveiled today and we have another key Oscar precursor to pontificate about. I went 91 for 123 with Conclave (as I forecasted) leading all pictures in contention. It even managed to get 12 nods and that’s ahead of my call of 11. Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some general commentary.
Best Film
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez
How I Did: 4/5
I predicted The Substance over Unknown, which continues its highly impressive precursor run. This should come down to The Brutalist vs. Conclave unless the Brits really fall for Anora or Pérez.
Outstanding British Film
Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
How I Did: 9/10
I thought Civil War would make the cut instead of Love Lies Bleeding. As the only Best Film contender in this bunch, Conclave has an obvious edge.
Outstanding Debut By a British Writer, Director or Producer
Oof. I went with Bring Them Down, Grand Theft Hamlet, and The Taste of Mango over Hoard, my alternate Monkey Man, and Sister Midnight. This is a pretty easy pick with Kneecap out front.
Children’s and Family Film
Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/4
I went with Young Woman and the Sea over Kingdom. This new category could go to Robot, but watch out for Flow or even Wallace.
Film Not in the English Language
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
How I Did: 4/5
I called a bit of an upset with La Chimera popping up in this quintet instead of Fig. The safe money is on Pérez for the victory.
Documentary
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
No Other Land has dominated early critics groups and is the favorite.
Animated Film
Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/4
Like Children’s and Family Film, this could be a three-way battle between Flow, Wallace, and Robot. I predicted Memoir of a Snail instead of Inside Out 2.
Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
How I Did: 5/6
I feel like Villeneuve needed this to say viable in the Oscar convo and he gets in over my pick of Payal Kapadia for All We Imagine as Light. Even if it doesn’t win Best Film, Corbet is likely in the lead. Yet I wouldn’t discount Berger with the nomination leading Conclave.
Original Screenplay
Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This is where Anora could get a prize.
Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
How I Did: 4/5
Sing Sing joins the party over Wicked. This should be a Conclave win.
Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)
How I Did: 5/6
I wouldn’t ignore the possibility of a surprise with Jean-Baptiste, but should be between Madison and Moore. Ronan finally gets some precursor attention over my pick of Kate Winslet in Lee.
Actor
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/6
Mr. Grant makes the sextet over the rather unexpected omission of Daniel Craig in Queer. Expect either Brody or Chalamet for the gold.
Supporting Actress
Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 4/6
Saldaña is the frontrunner. Curtis (fresh off her SAG nod) and Gomez compete instead of Michele Austin (Hard Truths) and Margaret Qualley (The Substance). Except for Grande and Saldaña, the battle for the three slots in this race at the Oscars is fascinating with several performers in contention.
Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/6
I thought maybe Denzel Washington would get his (somehow) first BAFTA nomination for Gladiator II. It didn’t happen and went to Clarence Maclin instead. Culkin is the frontrunner with Pearce as a potential spoiler.
Casting
Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap
How I Did: 2/5
This unpredictable race proved to be just that. I went with Blitz, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked and not The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, and Kneecap. The winner? Your guess is as good as mine. Let’s say Anora for now.
Cinematography
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu
How I Did: 4/5
Perez over Anora with The Brutalist or perhaps Conclave out front.
Costume Design
Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 2/5
Ouch. I said Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, and Gladiator II and not Blitz, A Complete Unknown or Conclave. This should be Wicked.
Editing
Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Kneecap
How I Did: 3/5
Predicted Challengers (which was blanked) and The Substance over Dune and Kneecap. Conclave could take this.
Make-Up and Hair
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
Pérez over Beetlejuice as The Substance seeks the victory.
Original Score
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/5
Nosferatu and Robot over Blitz and The Substance. Like Best Film, this might be between The Brutalist and Conclave.
Production Design
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
The Brutalist over Gladiator II (which had a poor showing today). This could be Wicked.
Sound
Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 2/5
Some real surprises here as Civil War, A Complete Unknown, and Emilia Pérez are out with Blitz, Gladiator II, and Wicked in. This should be Dune.
Special Visual Effects
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
Wicked instead of Alien: Romulus as Dune should get this (though Better Man has slight upset potential).
And there you have it! Keep an eye on the blog as we get closer to final Oscar predictions coming Sunday…
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
This third write-up brings us to Best Supporting Actress. If you missed the previous two posts covering Actress and Supporting Actor, you can find them here:
I often refer to the “pen” theory on this blog when discussing my Oscar forecasts. Those are performers and pictures whose nominations can be written in pen. For the 97th Academy Awards in Supporting Actress, I believe there’s two surefire selections.
Pop star Ariana Grande’s turn as Glinda has bewitched audiences worldwide. She’s received a key quartet of noms at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and the BAFTA long list. Her inclusion appears assured.
The same can be said for Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez and I have her placed in 1st. That’s because Saldaña has also achieved the aforementioned precursors with a victory at the Globes.
And then it’s a bit of a free for all with 8 performers, in my view, vying for 3 slots. Before we discuss them, let’s take a moment to mention some actresses whose nods once seemed possible. Then their pictures debuted and either the movies were looked at as disappointments or their roles weren’t significant enough to warrant awards buzz. I’m talking about Lady Gaga from Joker: Folie à Deux, Toni Collettee in Juror #2, Lashana Lynch from Bob Marley: One Love, and Hong Chau in Kinds of Kindness, to name a few.
Despite making the BAFTA long list, don’t look for Adriana Paz in Emilia Pérez to contend with the focus on cast mates Karla Sofia Gascón in lead and Saldaña and Selena Gomez (we’ll get to her shortly) here. Emily Watson also made the BAFTA cut in Small Things like These but isn’t expected to factor into the Academy derby. Same with Michele Austin in Hard Truths.
The next group were once seen as viable and have not made it to the precursors. Their nominations are not totally impossible. However, they would be rightly seen as major spoilers. I would include Joan Chen (Dídi), Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters), Saoirse Ronan (Blitz), and Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown) in this lot.
We return to the 8 performers circling three Oscar chairs. They are: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?
Monica Barbaro’s performance as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown has only popped up in one of the 4 previously discussed precursors. In her favor… it’s the most recent at SAG and Unknown has generally been over performing this season. I don’t have her predicted at press time and she’s 5th out of these 8 possibilities.
Jamie Lee Curtis, two years after winning this prize for Everything Everywhere All at Once, is in the mix once again for The Last Showgirl. She could also benefit from recency bias. While she didn’t factor in at the Globes or Critics Choice, her name has been called in the last few days with the BAFTA long list and SAG. I have her 6th out of the 8 possibilities.
Danielle Deadwyler has the disadvantage of The Piano Lesson not being a Best Picture contender or being a threat for a nomination anywhere else. The SAG nod this week kept her in the conversation and she also received Critics Choice. Two years ago, she was notably snubbed for her lead performance in Till and that could assist her now. I have her 3rd out of the 8 possibilities and just getting in.
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor in Nickel Boys has only shown up at Critics Choice and the movie itself may or may not make the BP dance. While her standing in the eventual quintet looks shaky, I wouldn’t totally discount her and she’s 7th out of the 8 possibilities.
Selena Gomez is undoubtedly in the shadow of costar Saldaña though she’s in the BAFTA long list and was nominated at the Globes. A SAG nod would have caused her to be higher, but she’s 8th out of the 8 possibilities.
Felicity Jones made BAFTA and Globes and was a surprise no-show at Critics Choice and SAG. I suspect The Brutalist‘s eventual standing at Oscar helps and I have her 1st among these 8 possibilities.
Margaret Qualley is nowhere near as guaranteed an Academy invite as her Substance lead Demi Moore. Of the four precursors, she has only missed SAG. I didn’t predict her there and I currently have her 4th of these 8 possibilities. That would leave her barely on the outside looking in.
Finally, despite a short amount of screen time in Conclave, Isabella Rossellini also only missed SAG. Unlike Qualley, I have her 3rd of the 8 hopefuls and just making the quintet.
OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Supporting Actress for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a deep dive into Best Actor up next!
Though it’s been less than two weeks since my previous Oscar forecast, a lot has occurred in that relatively short time frame. The Golden Globes aired. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled. SAG Awards nominations came out as did the DGA. These developments and more (including various critics groups announcing winners) have reshaped the race as we approach Oscar nomination morning.
Those nominations will be known on Sunday, January 19th. That is two days after the planned January 17th announcement and the delay was made due to the wildfires ravaging southern California. This is no surprise as the fires have also delayed PGA nominations and the airdate of the Critics Choice Awards.
The first Oscar predictions of 2025 will be my penultimate one and the last one that ranks contenders in the various categories. My plan is to have my final predictions up on Wednesday, January 15th.
So what are the biggest developments over the last few days? Demi Moore’s Golden Globe victory in Actress (Musical or Comedy) for The Substance causes me to elevate her to #1 in my Actress rankings over Mikey Madison (Anora), who had been perched in the top position for many weeks. The Directors Guild usually matches the Oscars 4 for 5, but the fact that they left off Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) helps cement his Oscar exclusion. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), fresh off his Globe victory, returns to #1 position over Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) who missed at SAG.
There are performers who could benefit from SAG love. They include Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis from The Last Showgirl, Jonathan Bailey in Wicked, and Jeremy Strong from The Apprentice. There are snubbed performers from SAG or who lost at the Globes whose Oscar inclusion seems more doubtful. The most notable example is Angelina Jolie (Maria) but the list also includes Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II), and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).
Indeed the Best Actress derby has been dramatically reshaped with Moore elevating from 3rd to 1st, Jolie dropping from 2nd to 6th, and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) entering my predicted quintet over Jolie and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths).
More changes are present in Supporting Actor as Yura Borisov (Anora) enters my five with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) out. I have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) still clinging to a nod though Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) appears hot on his heels.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)
6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sing Sing (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)
12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (+2)
13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)
14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)
8. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Different Man
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hit Man
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Kneecap (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Flow (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dahomey (PR: 10) (+1)
10. From Ground Zero (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daughters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Dahomey (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Union (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hollywoodgate (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maria (PR: 4) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Wicked
Best Costume Design
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Substance (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)
10. September 5 (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)
4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Challengers (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emila Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Blitz (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)
4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Emila Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Wild Robot (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Alien: Romulus (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alien: Romulus (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Twisters (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)
That works out to these movies receiving these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Conclave
8 Nominations
Wicked
6 Nominations
Anora, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two
5 Nominations
The Substance
4 Nominations
Gladiator II, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
I’m Still Here, A Real Pain, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Porcelain War, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Prior to its February 23rd airdate on Netflix with host Kristen Bell, nominations for the 31st SAG Awards were unveiled this morning. The planned in-person event revealing the nominees was scuttled due to the wildfires in southern California and were delivered via press release instead.
Bottom line – I went 22 for 30 in my predictions and there were some genuine shockers (particularly in the supporting contests). Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some commentary.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Pretty happy about this result! Unlike most SAG years, all five contenders here should make the list of the 10 BP hopefuls at the Oscars. Considering that Wicked led all pictures in terms of nominations, it could be out front though I wouldn’t discount Pérez.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
How I Did: 4/5
Angelina Jolie (Maria) is having a tough season lately and her Oscar chances are in serious jeopardy. She didn’t make the BAFTA long list and fell short to Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) at the Golden Globes in the dramatic lead actress competition. Now she misses the cut with SAG and it’s Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) getting in. Could Moore’s momentum after her Globes victory continue here or will it be Madison emerging victorious?
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Clarence Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
How I Did: 4/5
The core four (Brody, Chalamet, Domingo, Fiennes) are present but it is Daniel Craig getting the nod over my pick of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice. That fifth slot is up for grabs at Oscar while Brody and Chalamet could compete for the ultimate prize.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 3/5
The supporting races are where SAG really provide some surprises this time around with Barbaro and Curtis. They’re in over my forecasted nominees Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave). I would’ve figured Margaret Qualley (The Substance) and Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) had better shots than Barbaro/Curtis so this is a bit out of left field. Expect this to be between Saldaña and Grande.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 2/5 (oof)
And we’re even more in unanticipated territory with Supporting Actor as Bailey, Borisov, and Strong (who was my alternate) are in with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) out. I genuinely am surprised that SAG left out Pearce and Washington. The former is considered Culkin’s main competitor this season. That may no longer be the case as Culkin could sweep the upcoming ceremonies. Side note – not a great morning for The Brutalist with Brody being the pic’s sole nominee.
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
I went with Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga over Wicked. I would think The Fall Guy, which is about stunt performers, could be the selection.
And there you have it, folks! Keep an eye on the blog for all Oscar precursor chatter…
The Last Showgirl has hit the Toronto Film Festival with an iconic Canadian actress in the limelight. From director Gia Coppola (granddaughter of Francis, niece of Sofia), Baywatch star Pamela Anderson headlines as an aging Vegas performer. The supporting cast includes Jamie Lee Curtis, Dave Bautista, Brenda Song, Billie Lourd, and Kiernan Shipka.
Early word-of-mouth indicates Anderson nails her leading role. It’s safe to say she’s come a long way since Barb Wire nearly 30 years ago. Showgirl has yet to find a stateside buyer so there’s no guarantee that it’s out by the end of 2024. Assuming it does make the domestic cut this year, Anderson’s viability in Best Actress could depend on who picks up distribution. A spirited campaign could put her in the mix. Curtis is also being called a scene stealer. However, her win only two ceremonies back for Everything Everywhere All at Once might hinder her exposure.
Reviews for the picture itself are more mixed. Anderson is probably on the outside looking in, but let’s see how this plays out before passing final judgment. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Before you laugh at me for putting “Oscar Predictions” in front of Borderlands (out tomorrow), the sci-fi action spectacle based on a popular video game series has plenty of special effects. Therefore Eli Roth’s rendering of the source material could theoretically play in Visual Effects.
It won’t. The cast includes two-time Academy Award recipient Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jack Black, Édgar Ramirez, Ariana Greenblatt, Florian Munteanu, and recent Supporting Actress winner Jamie Lee Curtis. However, this is shaping up to be one of the biggest box office bombs of 2024. With a budget reportedly in the $120 million vicinity, I don’t even have it reaching $10 million during opening weekend.
Then there’s the reviews. Oof. The embargo was lifted hours before its release and now we know why. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 3% with a grand total of one positive(ish) write-up (here’s looking at you Grace Randolph)!
You can safely assume Borderlands won’t resonate with the Academy’s voters. On the other hand, it is the likely frontrunner for the Razzie Awards early next year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (08/08): On the eve of its premiere, I’m downsizing my estimate from $11.3 million to $8.1 million
For quite some, “based on a video game” was a kiss of death for cinematic adaptations. Some of the massive failures include 1993’s live-action Super Mario Bros., Double Dragon, Wing Commander, and Max Payne. That trend has reversed in recent years with hits like Uncharted, last year’s animated The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Five Nights at Freddy’s. So where Eli Roth’s Borderlands land? I suspect it might fail to break out.
The sci-fi action comedy is spawned from one of the most successful game franchises that began 15 years ago. An impressive cast includes Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jack Black (doing voiceover work), Edgar Ramirez, Ariana Greenblatt, Florian Munteanu, Gina Gershon, Haley Bennett, Bobby Lee, and Jamie Lee Curtis.
Some die-hard aficionados of the role-playing first-person shooter series will obviously turn up. Crossover appeal, despite the recognizable cast, could be a tall order. A debut of over $20 million should be considered a win, but I think it might stall out in the low double digits.
Borderlands opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer. Let’s get to it!
It could be considered the capper for one of the most remarkable comeback stories in Hollywood history. In the mid 90s, Downey Jr.’s career appeared over due to drug abuse and legal woes. By 2008, he was starting run as star of the biggest franchise of all time with the MCU and multiple appearances as Tony Stark in the Iron Man and Avengers series. His role as the scheming AEC Chairman Lewis Strauss in Christopher Nolan’s epic biopic has swept the season thus far at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. SAG is likely to follow suit next weekend. This could be seen as a career achievement prize and his peers are probably eager to give it to him (similar to Jamie Lee Curtis last year in Everything Everywhere All at Once).
The Case Against Robert Downey Jr.:
Frankly, it’s difficult to come up with one. Maybe the voters will look at Supporting Actor as a place to honor Barbie and give it to Ryan Gosling. The same logic could apply to Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things or Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon.
The Verdict:
At this point, anything other than a Downey Jr. victory would be a significant upset.
My Case Of posts will continue with the direction of Christopher Nolan in Oppenheimer…
The September triumvirate of high profile festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) is in the rearview mirror. The New York Film Festival is happening now though there’s not a huge number of pictures that didn’t already premiere at earlier fests. One that did – Garth Davis’s Foe – proved to be an awards bust. With a 21% Rotten Tomatoes score, you can assume this is the last time it will be mentioned in these prediction posts.
Truth be told, there are just a few Oscar bait titles left to screen. They include The Color Purple, Napoleon, Disney’s Wish, The Iron Claw, and Wonka (in some tech races).
I thought this might be an opportune time to tell you how my 2022 predictions from this same time of year stood up. Last year, when I did forecasts for the 95th Academy Awards on October 5th, it yielded an impressive 8 of the eventual nominees (winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking). The other two nominees (Avatar: The Way of Water and Elvis) were both listed in other possibilities.
For Best Director, I correctly called three of the five (winners the Daniels for Everything Everywhere, Todd Field for Tár, Steven Spielberg with The Fabelmans). Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Rüben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) were identified as other possibilities.
The #3 also applied to Actress as I named winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everything) along with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans). Ana de Armas (Blonde) was tagged under other possibilities while Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) was not yet on the radar screen. Same goes for Best Actor (3) where I had winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Bill Nighy (Living) in othjer possibilities. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) was outside of the top ten.
In the supporting derbies, my 2022 early October projections gave you only two of the eventual five in Supporting Actress with Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Hong Chau (The Whale). Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) was an other possibility. The winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere) was not yet in my listed ten nor was fellow nominee Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). For Supporting Actor, I correctly had three with winner Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) and Banshees costars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) was in other possibilities while Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) had not entered my mix.
Whew. For those keeping score, that means I predicted 22 of the 35 movies, directors, and actors in those six races at this same juncture in 2022.
My first October projections contain a few alterations from my final September write-up. As much as I don’t like taking Toronto’s People’s Choice Award victor American Fiction out of my BP lineup, I’m doing so with The Zone of Interest back in that list. On the same note, Zone‘s filmmaker Jonathan Glazer returns to my directing quintet with Celine Song (Past Lives) on the outside looking in.
Greta Lee (Past Lives) jumps back in Actress with Margot Robbie (Barbie) omitted. However, Lee’s costar John Magaro is dropped from Supporting Actor in favor of Charles Melton (May December).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)
15. Origin (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, Amerian Fiction (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Teo Yoo, Past Lives
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (E)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4 ) (E)
5. Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. About Dry Grasses (PR: 5) (-1)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Settlers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Teachers’ Lounge
Io capitano
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“High Life” from Flora and Son
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ferrari (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Creator (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (-2)
That means I’m projecting these movies will garner these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
10 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, Maestro
5 Nominations
Past Lives
4 Nominations
The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, The Killer, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 