Tag: Jacob Elordi

98th Academy Awards: FINAL Winner Predictions

It is time to make my final predictions for the 98th Academy Awards airing Sunday evening with Conan O’Brien returning as host. The first word that comes to mind… ugh. This is tough. Not every category. Some are quite easy to forecast as is normally the case.

The ones that aren’t? I would say five of the top six competitions could go in different directions and that’s unique. As readers of my blog know, there are scores of individual write-ups talking about the Oscar chances of various films. There are multiple posts ranking the possibilities of pics, performers, directors, writers, and all kinds of crew members. It’s now time to put pencils down and write down my selections in pen for the 21 (now that Best Casting has joined the lineup) feature-length races.

Let’s get to it as I’ll select a winner and runner-up in each! And you can bet I’ll have a recap up Sunday night with reaction and how I did!

Best Picture

Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams

This is a head vs. gut call. The head says One Battle After Another which has taken PGA, the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. That kind of combo would normally be undeniable in BP. Yet Sinners is more of the gut prediction. Having just won Best Ensemble at SAG Actor, Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale seems to be peaking at the right time as voters finalize ballots. The record haul of 16 noms is an obvious bonus.

I cannot stress enough how much of a coin flip this is. I may look foolish on Sunday by betting against the kind of hardware that Battle has achieved in the precursors. However, for several days, the momentum of Sinners has me leaning in its direction.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

2021 was the last year where there was a BP/Director split with CODA taking the grand prize and Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) winning Director. Mr. Anderson has swept the precursors including the Directors Guild of America (DGA) which rarely differs from Oscar. A better night for Sinners than even I’m projecting could cause Ryan Coogler to become the first African-American to make this particular podium trip. In this case, my head and gut say PTA.

WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

Someone other than Jessie Buckley had to win Actress in a Musical or Comedy at the Globes. That was Rose Byrne. Therefore she gets runner-up status. Make no mistake. Of the major categories, this is by far the easiest as Buckley has won everything else.

WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

For a while, Critics Choice and Globe winner Timothée Chalamet was looking almost as certain as Buckley. BAFTA and SAG changed that dynamic and they are the last two precursors heading into Oscar voting. At the British ceremony, the not Academy nominated Robert Aramayo (I Swear) was triumphant. At SAG, it was Michael B. Jordan. There’s also Golden Globe Best Drama in a Drama recipient Wagner Moura. All three are viable. Heck there’s even prognosticators making arguments for DiCaprio and Hawke. This is an example where I’m ultimately buying the Sinners mojo though Chalamet still has a stronger shot than some are giving him credit for.

WINNER: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

This one has been all over the place. The Globe went to Teyana Taylor, Amy Madigan took Critics Choice and SAG Actor, and Wunmi Mosaku grabbed BAFTA. Madigan’s performance is so singularly memorable that a win makes plenty of sense. Like Actor, I’m going with where I think the winds are blowing.

WINNER: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Runner-Up: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

Like Supporting Actress, a head scratcher. Critics Choice went to Jacob Elordi with Stellan Skarsgård getting the Globe. The latter seems more probable and, yes, Sinners love could extend to Lindo. BAFTA and SAG flipped the script by going with Sean Penn who would be picking up the rare third Oscar. This is a case where Battle has the late breaking momentum.

WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners

While most of the races above are tricky, the screenplay ones are not. Value stands the best chance at an upset but Sinners is the easy pick.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: Sentimental Value

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

Repeat everything I said for Original Screenplay and replace Battle for Sinners and Hamnet for Value.

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best International Feature Film

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

At one time, Accident was seen as a potential frontrunner. The competition has morphed to a showdown between Value and Agent. This could definitely go either way, but I’ll give the edge to Value achieving something with its nine nominations.

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: The Secret Agent

Best Animated Feature

Arco, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

Zootopia 2 becoming 2025’s largest grossing blockbuster right as voting was occurring cannot hurt. It’s just hard to ignore the cultural juggernaut that KPop is.

WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: Zootopia 2

Best Documentary Feature

The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

This is a category capable of surprises and I could see Alabama, Good Light, and especially BAFTA winner Putin getting called up. Neighbor got lots of attention via its Netflix release and I’ll say the true crime doc squeaks through.

WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor

Runner-Up: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Best Casting

Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners

The inaugural year of the Casting contest is consists of five BP nominees and I’m going with the one I’m seledting as the winner.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

Train Dreams has notched some precursors and is a real threat and the same logic certainly applies to Battle. Either could win. So could Sinners with that BP momentum. This is one I think Battle could manage to get and I’ll give it a slight edge over my BP selection

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Costume Design

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners

While we’re still wondering what Avatar is doing here, this is one of three races that Frankenstein is likely to collect.

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Film Editing

F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

F1 could zoom past the competition and Battle might be the safer bet. I’ll go with my BP pick for this one.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister

This is the second Frankenstein victory unless Sinners has a truly amazing evening.

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Sinners is anticipated to emerge here rather easily.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Original Song

“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

The Sinners tune could score the upset though “Golden” should be just that.

WINNER: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners

Best Production Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Frankenstein Oscar #3 expected with Sinners looming.

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Sound

F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt

One of the trickiest down the line categories as Sinners could absolutely prevail and a Sirāt upset is feasible. I do think the autotunes of F1 gets it by a nose.

WINNER: F1

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners

The first two Avatar flicks nabbed VE as should the third.

WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Runner-Up: F1

That equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of victories:

7 Wins

Sinners

4 Wins

One Battle After Another

3 Wins

Frankenstein

2 Wins

KPop Demon Hunters

1 Win

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Hamnet, The Perfect Neighbor, Sentimental Value

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The final entrant in Best Supporting Actor is Swedish veteran Stellan Skarsgård in Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. If you missed my posts covering the others, they can found here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Delroy Lindo in Sinners
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sean Penn in One Battle After Another

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Stellan Skarsgård:

He’s a well-respected thespian who finally nabbed a role with big screen awards attention. As film director Gustav Borg, Skarsgård joins costars Renate Reinsve, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass as nominees. He received the Golden Globe where seven of the past ten winners have matched with Oscar. Additionally, nominations came at Critics Choice and BAFTA.

The Case Against Stellan Skarsgård:

Surprisingly, he did not make the cut at SAG Actor. The last Oscar winner to not show up at SAG was Christoph Waltz for 2012’s Django Unchained. That’s the only time where the Academy’s honoree didn’t contend at SAG. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) has the momentum with prizes at BAFTA and SAG while Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) took Critics Choice.

The Verdict:

Skarsgård could pull the upset, but he’s behind Penn for sure. While he might have the best shot among the Value quartet, he’s still a long shot.

My Case Of posts will continue the fifth contender in Best Director – Chloé Zhao for Hamnet…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sean Penn in One Battle After Another

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The fourth entrant in Best Supporting Actor is Sean Penn as the villainous Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. If you missed my posts covering the first three thespians in the race, they can be accessed here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Delroy Lindo in Sinners

Previous Acting Nominations:

1995 – Actor (Dead Man Walking) – lost to Nicolas Cage for Leaving Las Vegas; 1999 – Actor (Sweet and Lowdown) – lost to Kevin Spacey for American Beauty; 2001 – Actor (I Am Sam) – lost to Denzel Washington for Training Day; 2003 – Actor (Mystic River) – WON; 2008 – Actor (Milk) – WON

The Case for Sean Penn:

The six-time nominee and two-time winner is peaking at the right time. Penn has taken the previous major precursors via BAFTA and SAG Actor. While he’s been a mainstay at the Oscars, it’s been 17 years between nominations and this is seen as his meatiest role in quite some time. He would entered rarified territory as only the 8th actor to have more than two gold statues joining Katherine Hepburn with four and the following performers with three – Ingrid Bergman, Walter Brennan, Daniel Day-Lewis, Frances McDormand, Jack Nicholson, and Meryl Streep.

The Case Against Sean Penn:

As you can see above, it’s no easy task to get a trio of Oscars. He could vote split with his costar Benicio del Toro. The early precursors did not go his way with Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) taking Critics Choice and the Globes selecting Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value). Unlike some his fellow nominees, he’s not big on campaigning.

The Verdict:

Momentum matters. A month ago, Penn looked like a long shot. Now he’s the favorite and hard to bet against.

My Case Of posts will continue with fourth director for consideration – Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value…

March 6-8 Box Office Predictions

Disney/Pixar looks to jump to the top of the box office charts with Hoppers while Warner Bros hopes moviegoers RSVP for The Bride!, Maggie Gyllenhaal’s take on The Bride of Frankenstein starring Jessie Buckley and Christian Bale. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Hoppers Box Office Prediction
The Bride! Box Office Prediction

Recent original Pixar titles (Elemental, Elio) have struggled out of the gate with openings below $30 million. With encouraging reviews, I suspect that won’t be the case with Hoppers and I’m going with a start in the mid 40s.

As for The Bride!, I am forecasting a subpar premiere barely topping $10 million. As I mentioned in my post, the second weekend of Scream 7 and especially similar subject matter being covered in Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein on Netflix could hinder this.

Speaking of Scream 7, it had a terrific debut (more on that below) that easily set a franchise record. The horror genre usually sees substantial declines in their second frames and I envision a mid to high 60s plummet for the latest adventures of Ghostface. Goat and Wuthering Heights should round out the top five.

Here’s I how I envision it shaking out:

1. Hoppers

Predicted Gross: $43.6 million

2. Scream 7

Predicted Gross: $19.5 million

3. The Bride!

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

4. Goat

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

5. Wuthering Heights

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (February 27-March 1)

As mentioned, Scream 7 had no trouble making loud noises at multiplexes with a series best $63.6 million, trouncing the $44 million that 2023 predecessor Scream VI pulled in. It also eclipsed my meager $47.6 million prediction for the best start yet in 2026.

Goat dropped to second with $12 million, down only 29% for a three-week tally of $73 million. I went a little lower at $10.8 million.

Wuthering Heights was third with $6.7 million (I said $6.9 million) and its three-week total is $72 million. The Margot Robbie-Jacob Elordi romance should fall a bit short of nine digits.

I did not have the rest of the high five being populated with music docs, but that was the result. Twenty One Pilots: More Than We Ever Imagined was fourth with $3.7 million. The King was fifth as EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert made $3.5 million to bring its earnings to nearly $8 million. Crime 101 was sixth with $3.7 million. I didn’t do a prediction for it and it’s made $30 million after three weeks.

I Can Only Imagine 2 fell a sharp 59% after a disappointing debut to $3.1 million in seventh. I forecasted a bit more at $4 million. The faith-based sequel stands at $13 million after ten days.

Send Help was eighth with $2.8 million (I went with $2.6 million) for a five-week gross of $59 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

32nd Actor Awards Winner Predictions

The ceremony formerly known as the SAG Awards is now the Actor Awards and the 32nd edition of the ceremony airs Sunday, March 1st. Kristen Bell returns to host a show that is tough to predict, especially in the supporting fields where no frontrunner has emerged via the precursors. Will the Screen Actors Guild help make it clearer or muddy it up even more?

Let’s walk through the six movie races with my thoughts and a winner and runner-up projection. I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with initial thoughts and how I did.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Over the past 10 years, this ensemble award has matched the Academy’s Best Picture half the time
(Spotlight, Parasite, CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Oppenheimer). I would definitely say the two pics with a shot to win are Battle and Sinners, the two BP favorites. While the former may have an edge with the Academy, my hunch is that SAG goes with Ryan Coogler’s sprawling cast.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

This category has matched Oscar 6 out the last 10 years. Actress is the only competition where the possibility of a sweep is still open. Jessie Buckley has triumphed everywhere else and I see no compelling reason why this guild would change that.

WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

The idea of a Chalamet sweep was halted when BAFTA unexpectedly rolled with Robert Aramayo in I Swear (who isn’t nominated here or at the Oscars). My hesitation to pick Chalamet has less to do with that and more to do with the fact he won SAG Actor last year for A Complete Unknown. I could see Hawke taking this prize for his showy role or the voters selecting Jordan. Ultimately I’m not pulling the trigger on the upset, but don’t discount the possibility. There is a 7 for 10 Actor/Oscar match over the past decade.

WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

Ugh… this is a tough one. There is no consistency among the precursors – Critics Choice went with Madigan, the Globes honored Taylor, and BAFTA picked Mosaku. One could certainly argue that Mosaku has the momentum and that if Sinners takes Best Ensemble, it increases the chances of a solo acting victory. Taylor could solidify her status as Oscar favorite with this award. This is essentially a three-way coin flip. Madigan could certainly emerge as this branch has shown the ability to honor the horror genre in a way the Academy doesn’t (see Demi Moore last year for The Substance). My gut says Sinners gets that one solo prize though I cannot stress enough that I almost went with Taylor. There is a 9 for 10 match with this branch and Oscar since 2015.

WINNER: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Miles Caton (Sinners), Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

There’s a 9 for 10 match here as well and this is just as wide open as Supporting Actress. Critics Choice called Elordi as their winner, Globes picked Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value (not nominated here), and BAFTA went with Sean Penn. In this case, I am going with the BAFTA momentum though his costar del Toro might pose the realest threat.

WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Tom Cruise’s franchise is known for stunts so I wouldn’t bet against it.

WINNER: Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Runner-Up: F1

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Delroy Lindo in Sinners

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Delroy Lindo is our third possibility in Supporting Actor for Sinners. If you missed my posts covering the first two, they can be accessed here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Delroy Lindo:

As Delta Slim in Ryan Coogler’s blockbuster, Lindo is a well-respected veteran in a movie that could win Best Picture. There is also a feeling that he was snubbed in 2020 for his lead work in Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods. Supporting Actor is wide open this year with different winners at the Globes (Stellan Skasgård in Sentimental Value), Critics Choice (Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein), and BAFTA (Sean Penn in One Battle After Another).

The Case Against Delroy Lindo:

Notice you don’t see his name as a recipient anywhere. In fact, you won’t because Lindo missed out on nominations at SAG, the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. It is extremely rare for someone to nominated (let alone win) without being up at any of those precursors. You have to go back to Marcia Gay Harden in Pollock 25 years ago to find the last one. The voters can honor the Sinners cast elsewhere via Michael B. Jordan and especially BAFTA winner Wunmi Mosaku.

The Verdict:

With the absence of noms everywhere else, logic would dictate that Lindo isn’t a threat to take gold. However, this Supporting Actor derby is unpredictable enough that I wouldn’t completely discount it. The chances increase if Sinners can pry BP away from One Battle.

My Case Of posts will continue with the third filmmaker contending for Best Director, Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme…

79th BAFTA Awards Reaction

I didn’t anticipate mentioning the 2000 feature Billy Elliot in my BAFTA recap covering 2025 pictures, but these voters are dancing to the beat of a different drum so here we are! That’s one surprise of several that developed at the British equivalent of the Academy Awards. It was not surprising that Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another led the way and (yes) won one BAFTA after another. However, the outcome of the acting races provided legit unexpected results and might have a hand in reshaping what happens at the 98th Oscars.

As far as results, I went 14 for 23 in my projections and 1 for 4 in the acting derbies. I correctly forecasted Best Film and Director BAFTAs for One Battle After Another and its maker Anderson. Same goes for its victories in Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography. It also took the Editing prize where I had F1.

In Supporting Actor, Battle‘s Sean Penn emerged in a field where I picked Stellan Skasgård as the winner and had Penn’s costar Benicio del Toro as the runner-up. We now have 3 different Supporting Actor victors in the three highest profiles precursors – Penn at BAFTA, Skarsgård at the Globes, and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) at Critics Choice. Let’s see what SAG Actor does next weekend as this race is wide open.

Battle did nothing but help its status as BP Oscar frontrunner. Yet Sinners didn’t take a significant hit. It won Original Screenplay and I went with Sentimental Value. I correctly picked it for Original Score.

In Supporting Actress, it represented a One Battle miss and a Sinners pickup. I went with Teyana Taylor, but Wunmi Mosaku lodged her first major recognition. Like Supporting Actor, we now have a trio of recipients among the precursors – Mosaku at BAFTA, Taylor at the Globes, and Amy Madigan (Weapons) at Critics Choice. Once again, SAG Actor will be closely viewed in another wide open acting derby. Simply put, I can’t remember the last time both supporting fields were this unpredictable.

That’s not the case in Actress where Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) predictably did a podium walk as her chances at a seasonal sweep are looking strong.

We will not be seeing a Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) sweep. I had him taking Actor with Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) as runner-up. BAFTA went their own way with Robert Aramayo (I Swear). He was additionally named the BAFTA Rising Star. Aramayo is not nominated at Oscar. The last time a BAFTA Best Actor wasn’t among the Academy’s quintet? That would be Jamie Bell in the title role of… you guessed it (!) Billy Elliot.

Here’s where I managed to get it right – Hamnet for Outstanding British Film and Sentimental Value having a subpar day with its sole win for Film Not in the English Language. I was correct in calling Zootopia 2 as Best Animated Film. Same goes for Frankenstein with the trio of Costume Design, Makeup & Hair, and Production Design and F1 in Sound and Avatar: Fire and Ash in Special Visual Effects.

Here’s where I whiffed. I will pat myself on the back for predicting The Perfect Neighbor would not be the documentary that BAFTA selected. Unfortunately I went with 2000 Meters to Andrivka and not Mr. Nobody Against Putin. Could it emerge as a spoiler to a Neighbor Oscar prize?

Pillion looked like the pick for Outstanding British Debut by a Writer, Director or Producer, but BAFTA chose My Father’s Shadow. Same with Children’s & Family Film where Zootopia 2 looked probable, but Boong was listed in the envelope. In Casting (always a tough race to project), I Swear emerged over Sentimental Value and my runner-up One Battle.

So what’s the biggest takeaway? I’d say the chaos occurring in the supporting competitions and that Battle vs. Sinners appears to still be a battle.

Today’s ceremony bestowed these numbers of wins for these movies:

6 Wins

One Battle After Another

3 Wins

Frankenstein, Sinners

2 Wins

Hamnet, I Swear

1 Win

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Boong, F1, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, Sentimental Value, Zootopia 2

I’ll have winner predictions up for SAG Actor (happening a week from today) on the blog soon!

79th BAFTA Winner Predictions

The 79th BAFTAs (Britain’s version of the Academy Awards) occur this Sunday and they are often a reliable precursor to what Oscar voters will do. For example, they are 8 for 8 in the past two cycles in forecasting the acting races. On the flip side, in 2022, none of the four BAFTA acting recipients took the Oscar. The previous five cycles has seen the BAFTA Best Film match with Best Picture only twice (Nomadland, Oppenheimer). In 2021, the Brits honored The Power of the Dog over CODA (which wasn’t nominated). The following year it was All Quiet on the Western Front instead of Everything Everywhere All at Once. Last year, BAFTA selected Conclave and not Anora.

That’s why it’s very tempting to go with Hamnet over arguable frontrunners One Battle After Another and Sinners in the top competition. I almost did so, but ultimately decided with roll with Battle (with a low degree of confidence). Let’s walk through each race one by one with my winner projections and a runner-up.

Best Film

Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Best Actor

Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)

WINNER: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

WINNER: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay

I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Outstanding British Film

28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die My Love, H is for Hawk, Hamnet, I Swear, Mr Burton, Pillion, Steve

WINNER: Hamnet

Runner-Up: Pillion

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman

WINNER: Pillion

Runner-Up: My Father’s Shadow

Best Film Not in the English Language

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: The Secret Agent

Best Animated Film

Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

WINNER: Zootopia 2

Runner-Up: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Best Children’s & Family Film

Arco, Boong, Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2

WINNER: Zootopia 2

Runner-Up: Arco

Best Documentary

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

WINNER: 2000 Meters to Andrivka

Runner-Up: The Perfect Neighbor

Best Casting

I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Costume Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Editing

F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

WINNER: F1

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Make Up & Hair

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Production Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Sound

F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare

WINNER: F1

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Special Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus

WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Runner-Up: F1

That adds up to these movies generating numbers of victories:

5 Wins

One Battle After Another

4 Wins

Sentimental Value

3 Wins

Frankenstein

2 Wins

F1, Hamnet, Zootopia 2

1 Win

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Marty Supreme, Pillion, Sinners

I’ll have a recap up Sunday with how I performed and my thoughts on how it might impact the Oscars…

February 20-22 Box Office Predictions

Faith-based sequel I Can Only Imagine 2 looks to top the charts as the weekend’s only significant wide release and stands an excellent shot at doing so. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:

I Can Only Imagine 2 Box Office Prediction

The Lionsgate follow-up to the 2018 sleeper hit hopes to build upon the $17 million premiere that its predecessor made. I have it barely doing so though this will likely be more front-loaded than the original. That should be good enough to nab the #1 slot.

That might depend on the sophomore fall of the animated Goat which met and even slightly exceeded expectations over the long Valentine’s/President’s Day frame. I am confident its second weekend dip will be much smaller than that of current champ of Wuthering Heights (more on its performance below). Goat should stay in second with Heights falling to third.

Crime 101 might lose about half its crowd in weekend #2 with Send Help rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. I Can Only Imagine 2

Predicted Gross: $17.8 million

2. Goat

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million

3. Wuthering Heights

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Crime 101

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

5. Send Help

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

Box Office Results (February 13-16)

As anticipated, Emerald Fennell’s loose adaptation of Wuthering Heights with Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi managed to place first. However, I took the over on it and certainly should’ve went under. It opened below forecasts with $32.8 million from Friday to Sunday and $37.5 million when counting Monday. That’s well below my generous respective predictions of $55 million and $62.1 million. With a B Cinemascore grade, look for it to fade rather quickly. I have it declining in the 60% range this weekend.

Goat was runner-up with a $27.2 million 3-day and $35.1 million 4-day. That’s on target and a bit superior than my calls of $26.7 million and $30.4 million (it had a better Monday that I figured). The future looks bright with its A Cinemascore.

Crime 101 with Chris Hemsworth was a decent third at $14.2 million (Fri-Sun) and $16 million over the long frame. The thriller performed in range with my takes of $13.3 million and $15.2 million.

Sam Raimi’s Send Help was fourth after two weeks in 1st with $8.8 million (3-day) and $10.1 million (4-day), ahead of my $7.4 million and $8.2 million projections. The laudable three-week tally is $49 million.

Solo Mio with Kevin James had a sturdy hold in fifth with $6.3 million (3-day) and $7.2 million (4-day). I said $6.9 million and $7.5 million. The two-week total is $17 million.

Two other newcomers performed in line with and below my guesstimates. Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die from Gore Verbinski was 8th with $3.6 million (3-day) and $4.1 million (4-day) and I was right there at $3.5 million and $4 million.

Finally, horror comedy Cold Storage got a chilly reception in 14th with $966k from Fri-Sun and $1.1 million factoring in Monday. I was more hopeful at $1.7 million and $2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our second write-up among the Supporting Actor five is Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein. If you missed my post covering Benicio del Toro from One Battle After Another, you can find it here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Jacob Elordi:

The Aussie star of Euphoria and Saltburn (and currently #1 movie Wuthering Heights) entered the awards chat as The Monster in Guillermo del Toro’s passion project. He surprisingly nabbed a trophy at first major precursor Critics Choice and was nominated at the Globes and is awaiting word from BAFTA and SAG Actor.

The Case Against Jacob Elordi:

He lost the Globe to Sentimental Value‘s Stellan Skarsgård. All other nominees in the Academy quintet are veteran thespians and voters might think Elordi’s time could come later.

The Verdict:

At the time of this writing, it is definitely a mystery whether that Critics Choice podium trip was a fluke. It will become more clear if Elordi can manage to take BAFTA or SAG Actor. Both are possible and if takes either or both, his stock on Oscar night goes up.

My Case Of posts will continue with the second director in contention and that’s Ryan Coogler for Sinners…