Oscar Predictions: Bad Apples

2026’s edition of the Toronto Film Festival continues through the weekend while Jonatan Etzler’s black comedy Bad Apples is out today after premiering after last year’s festival. Saoirse Ronan stars as a schoolteacher unconventionally dealing with an unruly student. The supporting cast includes Eddie Waller, Nia Brown, Jacob Anderson, Rakie Ayola, Robert Emms, and Sean Gilder.

With Republic Pictures handling distribution rights, Apples was finally picked for stateside distribution a year following its Canadian debut. Some reviews are praising its originality and Ronan’s work. It has 82% on Rotten Tomatoes with a more tempered 65 Metacritic.

A four-time Academy nominee, Ronan’s latest didn’t generate awards buzz in 2025 and is having a quiet rollout in 2026. Don’t expect this to pick up any traction in the season ahead. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Overlord Box Office Prediction

Horror audiences have been treated to lots of zombies over the past few years on the big and small screen. Yet in Overlord, we get to witness the undead in World War II! That’s the basic premise of the J.J. Abrams produced genre pic out next weekend from director Julius Ray. The cast includes Jovan Adepo, Wyatt Russell, Mathilde Ollivier, Pilou Asbaek, Jacob Anderson, and Bokeem Woodine.

Reviews for this exercise have been strong since it premiered at Fantastic Fest last month and it currently holds an 88% score on Rotten Tomatoes. The opportunity for this to be a cult hit is very real, but its initial box office earnings might be just fair. The Girl in the Spider’s Web presents some direct competition while casual horror enthusiasts may have had their fill with Halloween. A decent comp could be both 28 Days Later and 28 Weeks Later, which respectively made $10 million and $9.8 million for their starts. I’ll put this a bit under those.

Overlord opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million

For my The Grinch prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/30/the-grinch-box-office-prediction/

For my The Girl in the Spider’s Web prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/30/the-girl-in-the-spiders-web-box-office-prediction/