Box Office Predictions: October 28-30

For the previous two weekends at the box office, we’ve seen a total of seven features roll out in wide release. As the final frame of October is upon us, we just have one to close the month out – Inferno. This is the third teaming of director Ron Howard with Tom Hanks in adapting Dan Brown’s Robert Langdon novels to the screen. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Inferno Box Office Prediction

While Inferno should have no trouble debuting at #1, just how much it makes is a legit question. I’ve got it pegged at just over $30M, though my blog readers tend to disagree with 64% saying my prediction is Too High. 23% think I’m Just About Right with 13% believing I’m Too Low.

As for holdovers, Boo! A Madea Halloween had a much larger than anticipated debut last weekend (more on that below). Similar Madea titles that opened in the same range dropped about 60% in their second weekend. Could Halloween dip a bit lower since, you know, this is Halloween weekend coming up? Perhaps, but probably not by much.

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back should lose close to half its audience. Same for Ouija. The Accountant in weekend #3 has been experiencing good worth of mouth and its drop may not be quite as pronounced (I have it leaping over Evil).

And with that – the top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Inferno

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

2. Boo! A Madea Halloween

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 55%)

3. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. The Accountant

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million (representing a drop of 36%)

5. Ouija: Origin of Evil

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 48%)

Box Office Results (October 21-23)

In an unexpected box office twist, Tyler Perry outpaced Tom Cruise this weekend as Boo! A Madea Halloween scored a terrific debut with $28.5 million, more than double my meager $12.5M estimate. This marks the third highest debut for a Madea titled pic and ensures this character will be having other holiday fun (Thanksgiving’s probably next) into the future.

It was expected to top the charts, but Madea blocked that as Jack Reacher: Never Go Back debuted in second with $22.8 million (just below my $23.9M estimate). The Tom Cruise sequel suffered from middling reviews and it was following up a predecessor that isn’t exactly beloved. It should struggle to make the $80M earned by the first Reacher and it probably won’t.

Ouija: Origin of Evil didn’t scare up as much business as its predecessor, taking in $14 million for third place (I predicted $15.2M). With a lackluster C Cinemascore grade (same as the first one), it should fade fast, but may not have too calamitous a drop next weekend due to the Halloween holiday.

With all the newbies premiering, The Accountant slipped to fourth with $13.6 million. My prediction? $13.6M! At least I got something right this weekend! Its total stands at $47M.

The Girl on the Train was fifth with $7.1 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The thriller has grossed $58M in three weeks.

The Zack Galifianakis led comedy Keeping Up with Joneses had to settle for seventh place with a poor $5.4 million, well below my $10.1M forecast. It actually performed worse than the star’s comedy from earlier this month, Masterminds. 

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Jack Reacher Movie Review

A list actor Tom Cruise dives into B pulp movie territory with Christopher McQuarrie’s Jack Reacher, a film with style to spare but plenty of flaws to go along with it.

Reacher is based on a series of novels by Lee Child, which I’ve never read. Apparently the character in the novel is 6’5″, which is a bit of a stretch for Tommy boy who is like 4’3″ in real life (give or take). When a group of five random people are gunned down by a sniper in Pittsburgh, the arrested perp instructs defense attorney Helen (Rosemund Pike) to “get Jack Reacher”. Turns out Reacher is an ex-military cop who has a history with the arrested party and doesn’t believe the shooting massacre is as open and shut as the evidence suggests.

The picture follows Cruise along on his investigation to get to the truth. Per usual, no one can be trusted, from the detective heading the case (David Oyelowo) to the district attorney (Richard Jenkins) who happens to be Helen’s dad. There’s also a shadowy character named The Zec (Werner Herzog), a Russian gangster and his band of thugs.

For a good portion of Reacher‘s running time, McQuarrie keeps us intrigued with his polished direction and often effective B movie dialogue. McQuarrie has some credibility in this field as the screenwriter of 1995’s B movie classic The Usual Suspects (he also co-wrote Cruise’s solid 2008 thriller Valkyrie).

However, the plot of Reacher ends up not being terribly engrossing. The character of The Zec is a truly fascinating one who is given virtually no screen time, but famed German director Herzog makes the most of his limited role. None of the other supporting performances are bad but they’re not memorable either. I had to rack my brain trying to remember what else I’d seen Rosemund Pike in. Turns out she was a Bond love interest in the worst 007 flick ever, Die Another Day. She didn’t leave much of an impression there and she doesn’t here either.

By the time Robert Duvall shows up as a grizzled old Ohio gun range owner who helps Jack out, I found myself reaching for my cell phone to check the time. Duvall’s role is ultimately kinda pointless and seems written in simply to reunite the stars of Days of Thunder.

This is Cruise’s show and he acquits himself nicely. While he may not resemble the character in the books, Cruise is first-rate and believable in the role. McQuarrie and Cruise hold our attention for quite a while, but Jack Reacher turns out not worthy of its bloated 130 minute running time. If you’re a Cruise fan, I’d recommend a view just to see something a little different from the star. Be prepared to be a little disappointed though, as I was.

**1/2 (out of four)