Back to Black Box Office Prediction

Focus Features hopes audiences don’t say no no no to Back to Black when it arrives stateside on May 17th. Sam Taylor-Johnson, best known for making Fifty Shades of Grey, directs the Amy Winehouse biopic with Marisa Abela as the late crooner. Jack O’Connell, Eddie Marsan, and Lesley Manville costar.

Despite middling reviews (only 38% on RT), Black premiered in the #1 spot in the UK about a month ago. Of course, its earnings should be more impressive across the pond. Stateside audiences might be more ambivalent and the shaky word-of-mouth won’t help.

Rolling out on approximately 2000 screens, this could open similarly to last fall’s Priscilla. It did $5.1 million in its wide release and I’ll forecast that this gets just under that.

Back to Black opening weekend prediction: $4.5 million

For my IF prediction, click here:

For my The Strangers: Chapter 1 prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Back to Black

Back to Black doesn’t hit domestic venues until May 17th, but the biopic is out this weekend in the U.K. and reviews are available for download. Focused on the life of British crooner Amy Winehouse, Fifty Shades of Grey helmer Sam Taylor-Johnson directs with Marisa Abel as the late singer. Jack O’Connell, Eddie Marsan, and Lesley Manville costar.

Critical reaction is decidedly mixed. Trades like Variety and Hollywood Reporter are mostly positive while plenty of across the pond publications are panning it. The current result is 52% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Like another 2024 musical biopic about a legend gone too soon (Bob Marley: One Love with Kingsley Ben-Adir in the title part), notices for its headliner are stronger than the picture itself. Abel is being praised and she’s at least a slight threat to contend in Best Actress. Like Ben-Adir, it might be a stretch to make the final cut. Perhaps BAFTA is more doable. Don’t expect Black to factor in anywhere else. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Ferrari Box Office Prediction

Michael Mann’s first feature in nearly a decade zooms into multiplexes on Christmas Day with Ferrari. Adam Driver plays the automative entrepreneur with a supporting cast including Penélope Cruz, Shailene Woodley, Sarah Gadon, Gabriel Leone, Jack O’Connell, and Patrick Dempsey.

The Neon release (with a budget reportedly approaching $100 million) premiered at the Venice Film Festival early in the fall. Buzz was pretty decent (it’s at 75% on RT), but it hasn’t managed to become a serious awards contender. That kind of chatter could help its numbers. Yet it didn’t materialize.

My suspicion is that Ferrari will fail to make a significant dent in the holiday box office. Competition is fierce and this could get lost in the shuffle. Since it is out on Christmas Day (falling on Monday), this estimate is for that date only.

Ferrari opening day prediction: $2.1 million (Christmas Day estimate only)

For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:

For my Migration prediction, click here:

For my The Iron Claw prediction, click here:

For my Anyone but You prediction, click here:

For my Poor Things prediction, click here:

For my The Color Purple prediction, click here:

For my The Boys in the Boat prediction, click here:

For my Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Ferrari

It’s been eight long years since Michael Mann has been behind the camera and Ferrari marks his first picture since the 2015 cybercrime flop Blackhat. The Heat maker casts Adam Driver in the 1950s set biopic of Enzo Ferrari and it scored a Venice premiere prior to a Christmas Day theatrical release. Penélope Cruz, Shailene Woodley, Gabriel Leone, Sarah Gadon, Jack O’Connell, and Patrick Dempsey costar.

Early reviews are mostly fresh and it sits at 76% on Rotten Tomatoes. They may not be quite strong enough for it to be a significant awards player. It could sneak into Best Picture depending on competition in the weeks and months ahead. I doubt you’ll see it in my top 10 at my next update on Labor Day. There are openings elsewhere. The Sound (especially), Film Editing, and Cinematography are all possibilities.

I don’t anticipate Driver will be much of a factor in Best Actor. However, Cruz is drawing raves for her work as Enzo’s wife Laura. Neon may have a decision to make whether to campaign for her in lead or supporting (I’m guessing the latter). She could make the cut though competition might be fierce. If she manages a nod, it would mark her fifth after Volver, Vicky Christina Barcelona (for which she won Supporting Actress in 2008), Nine, and Parallel Mothers. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Lady Chatterley’s Lover

In 1928, D.H. Lawrence novel Lady Chatterley’s Lover was banned in the United States and elsewhere due its explicit sexual nature and profanity. Nearly a century later, the latest celluloid version of his work lands in theaters this November before a December Netflix rollout. It played at Telluride over the weekend. This is Laure de Clermont-Tonnerre’s second directorial effort following 2019’s critically appreciated The Mustang. Emma Corrin and Jack O’Connell are the lead lovers with Matthew Duckett and Joely Richardson in the supporting cast.

Early reviews have this at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with particular praise heaped on Corrin/O’Connell’s chemistry (expect to see a lot of them according to the buzz). Corrin is a Golden Globe winner as Princess Di on The Crown and she has a busy autumn as she costars alongside Harry Styles in My Policeman (soon screening in Toronto). I don’t think this is a BP contender, but I’ll be curious to see if Netflix attempts an Actress campaign for their Crown royalty. Perhaps that notion could pick up steam if the streamer feels she’s the best option, but I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Seberg

Kristen Stewart seems to have found another acclaimed indie role with the premiere of Seberg today at the Venice Film Festival. From director Benedict Andrews (best known for Una), the pic casts Stewart as actress Jean Seberg (best known for 1960’s Breathless), whose career was put in jeopardy by her association with an African-American activist played by Anthony Mackie. Costars include Jack O’Connel, Margaret Qualley, and Vince Vaughn.

Reviews for the film itself are a bit shaky. Yet it’s Stewart once again being singled out for her strong work. The Twilight performer has had a run of applauded roles in titles such as Clouds of Sils Maria and Personal Shopper. The Academy has yet to take notice and I’m skeptical they will here considering competitors in higher profile material. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Unbroken: Path to Redemption Box Office Prediction

This weekend, Harold Cronk (director of God’s Not Dead and its first sequel) has the faith-based war drama God Bless the Broken Road opening in theaters. Next weekend, the busy filmmaker releases Unbroken: Path to Redemption. It is deemed a “spiritual sequel” to 2014’s Unbroken. Pure Flix Entertainment is the distributor and I have a feeling we are about to see one of the largest opening weekend disparities from predecessor to follow-up.

Four years ago, Angelina Jolie made the first entry. It opened on Christmas Day and took in $46 million over the holiday weekend with an eventual domestic haul of $115 million. None of the principles behind that hit are back. Samuel Hunt takes over the lead role that Jack O’Connell played and the supporting cast includes Merritt Patterson, Vanessa Bell Calloway (most known as Eddie Murphy’s arranged wife 30 years ago in Coming to America), Bob Gunton, Gary Cole and evangelist Will Graham (who plays his late grandfather Billy).

I’m not so sure moviegoers are even aware of this sequel’s existence. Redemption is currently slated to premiere on a rather low 1200 screens. I have this weekend’s Harold Cronk movie (Broken Road) estimated at $2.1 million. I’ll bump this one a tad bit more, but not by much.

Unbroken: Path to Redemption opening weekend prediction: $2.5 million

For my The Predator prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/05/the-predator-box-office-prediction/

For my A Simple Favor prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/05/a-simple-favor-box-office-prediction/

For my White Boy Rick prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/06/white-boy-rick-box-office-prediction/

Tulip Fever Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (08/25): The reported theater count of only 600 screens has caused my revision to be lowered to $1.9 million.

There’s only new picture opening over the long Labor Day weekend and it’s unlikely to blossom into any sort of hit. Justin Chadwick’s Tulip Fever finally makes it to the big screen with a cast that includes Oscar winner Alicia Vikander, Dane DeHaan, Jack O’Connell, Judi Dench, Christoph Waltz, Zach Galifianakis, Matthew Morrison, and Cara Delevingne.

The reported $25 million production from the Weinstein Company has had a long and delayed journey to the silver screen. Tulip was shot over three years ago and was originally slated to debut in theaters last summer before the studio’s financial woes got in the way. It was then rescheduled for February of this year. Finally, it was supposed to debut this coming weekend before the Weinstein Company chose to release it wide (with little fanfare) just days ago as the sole release over the holiday weekend.

This does not bode well for its chances stateside. Even though there’s little competition, I’d say its best scenario is earning the $6.1 million captured by last year’s Labor Day release The Light Between Oceans (also starring Vikander). However, I’m not convinced it even manages that (a theater count when released will help). For now, I’ll say a debut between $4-$5 million is my diagnosis.

Tulip Fever opening weekend prediction: $1.9 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Hazlo Como Hombre prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/28/hazlo-como-hombre-box-office-prediction/

Money Monster Movie Review

A few years back, George Clooney revealed a list of his top 100 films released between 1964 and 1976. It’s an era he considers the best in the history of the medium and that’s certainly a valid hypothesis. In his impressive career, Clooney has appeared in movies that could have come out in that time frame. Good Night, and Good Luck and The Ides of March deal with themes of corporate corruption and dirty politics in ways that entries on his list did more often forty to fifty years ago. Titles like 1976’s Network and George’s all-time #1 All the President’s Men. Both of those features also deal with the positive and negative aspects of journalism and so does Money Monster. In 1976, 24 hour cable news didn’t exist yet. There were no programs like the one in the title where over-the-top host Lee Gates (Clooney) tells viewers how to invest their cash. Think Jim Cramer… except he looks like George Clooney.

Lee is set to tape his Friday show with his trusty director Patty (Julia Roberts) in his ear. Shortly after the cameras roll, Kyle (Jack O’Connell) crashes the set with a gun and explosive laden vest for Lee to don. His beef? He lost his life savings in a company that his now bomb strapped captive heartily endorsed. As millions of ciewees watch the situation live on TV, Monster becomes a rumination on the themes mentioned earlier.

That list Clooney made also correctly included 1975’s Dog Day Afternoon. Like that excellent effort, this is a real-time New York City hostage drama with humor frequently injected. Al Pacino gave one of his richest performances of his filmography in Afternoon and his riveting character made the tension substantial in it. That’s a problem here as the character of Kyle is neither fleshed out enough or believable enough to create any significant suspense. It’s not O’Connell’s fault really. He’s just written that way. And therein lies the film’s biggest drawback.

Often, Monster manages to coast on the considerable charms of its two leads and their nice rapport. We’ve seen plenty of pictures with this one’s “Wall Street is bad” theme but few with the star wattage. The quick running time (99 minutes) is a plus. This is never boring, though it’s credibility does dip in the third act.

The director, by the way, is an actress you may have heard of named Jodie Foster. She appeared in 1974’s Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore and 1976’s Taxi Driver. They both also made that Clooney list. Money Monster probably won’t be listed on anyone’s all-time top 100 of anything. You may not regret investing a short amount of time in it, but there’s lists of similarly themed fare that’s far superior. Even this movie’s star did one.

**1/2 (out of four)

 

Money Monster Box Office Prediction

George Clooney and Julia Roberts headline Money Monster, out next weekend, as this Jodie Foster directed thriller attempts to lure in adults for some early summer counter programming. I’m not confident it’ll work out too well.

The TriStar release, budgeted at a reasonable $30 million, stars Clooney as a financial TV guru held hostage live on air with Roberts as his exec producer. Jack O’Connell and Dominic West costar.

This pic is a rather odd choice for the second weekend in May and might’ve been better suited for a spring or early fall release. If it doesn’t perform well, it won’t be for lack of marketing as the TV spots have been featured heavily on the money monsters we call cable news networks. It could struggle to reach the opening weekends of the two leads lesser performers such as Clooney’s The American ($13.1 million) or Julia’s Duplicity ($13.9 million). And even though Foster has received two Oscars for her acting, her directorial efforts Little Man Tate, Home for the Holidays, and The Beaver have yet to yield a dam hit (get it?).

I’ll predict Money Monster doesn’t reach the teens out of the gate.

Money Monster opening weekend prediction: $12.7 million

For my The Darkness prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/04/the-darkness-box-office-prediction/