Twisters storms into theaters nearly 30 years after the blockbuster original and it should easily rule the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the weekend’s newcomer here:
My hunch is to take the over on its anticipated range and my forecast puts Twisters in the low 70s.
The rest of the top 5 should consist of holdovers. I see Despicable Me 4, after two weeks in the top spot, dropping to second in the low to mid 40s percent arena. Another animated sequel, Inside Out 2, may hold in third.
That’s because I have it dipping in the mid t0 high 30s and current #2 Longlegs experiencing a fall in the 50% range (more on that pic’s impressive start below). A Quiet Place: Day One will probably round out the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $72.3 million
2. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $24.8 million
3. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Longlegs
Predicted Gross: $11 million
5. A Quiet Place: Day One
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
Box Office Results (July 12-14)
Illumination Entertainment lit up the charts once again as Despicable Me 4 repeated in first. The sequel took in $43.5 million in its sophomore outing and that exceeds my $36.4 million prediction. Since its holiday weekend debut, it has amassed $210 million.
Neon had the largest premiere in its history (and then some) with the serial killer thriller Longlegs. Featuring a heavily made up Nicolas Cage as the title character, it held the runner-up spot with $22.4 million. That nearly doubles my $11.6 million projection and quadruples the studio’s previous record holder Immaculate from earlier in the year. It is certainly one of 2024’s biggest over performers.
Inside Out 2 was third with $19.9 million, a tad more than my $17.7 million take. The Pixar follow-up stands at $571 million after five weeks.
A Quiet Place: Day One was fourth with $11.3 million (I said $10.1 million) for a three-week tally of $115 million.
Finally, the star power of Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum wasn’t enough to lift Fly Me to the Moon to stellar results. The space race rom com was fifth with $9.4 million compared to my $12.2 million call.
Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum are hoping to land a third place showing behind the current animation domination with Fly to the Moon this Friday. We also have the critically acclaimed horror thriller Longlegs with Maika Monroe and Nicolas Cage and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
A low double digits premiere might get Moon to third after Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2. The former got off to a holiday weekend start in line with expectations while Inside continues its enormously financially potent run. I have Despicable dropping in the low 50s range with Out easing in the lower to mid 40s.
The worst case scenario for Moon would be fifth depending on how Longlegs debuts and A Quiet Place: Day One holds up in weekend 3. Longlegs is a wild card and it could exceed expectations. I have it just topping $10 million and that would put it in a close race with its genre competitor and perhaps even Moon. I’ll give the newcomer an edge over Quiet, but spots 3-5 will be a fascinating watch this time around.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:
1. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $36.4 million
2. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $17.7 million
3. Fly Me to the Moon
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
4. Longlegs
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
5. A Quiet Place: Day One
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million
Box Office Results (July 5-7)
As mentioned, Illumination Entertainment performed as anticipated with Despicable Me 4. Having opened on Wednesday the 3rd, the four-quel (and sixth entry in the series when counting the Minions titles) made $75 million from Friday to Sunday and $122.6 million when counting its two extra days. That’s slightly below my respective estimates of $79.4 million and $126.3 million and certainly enough to keep this money minting franchise going.
Inside Out 2 dropped to second after three weeks atop the charts with $30.3 million, a tad under my $32.6 million take. The four-week gross is $534 million.
A Quiet Place: Day One tumbled a somewhat troubling 61% in third with $20.6 million. I was more generous at $24 million. The two-week tally is nearing nine digits with $93 million.
Ti West’s third pic in his horror trilogy MaXXXine was fourth with a so-so $6.7 million. That does top my $5.7 million forecast and it is higher than predecessors X and Pearl. This should fade quickly.
Bad Boys: Ride or Die rounded out the top five with $6.6 million (I said $6.8 million) for a five-week $177 million haul.
Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 was sixth in its sophomore outing with $5.3 million, in line with my $5.4 million prediction. The Western’s underwhelming total is $22 million.
Inside Out 2 has been responsible for animation domination and kickstarting the summer season for the past three weeks. Now it’s time for a new sequel to take over as Despicable Me 4 debuts Wednesday and looks to rule the holiday frame. We also have Ti West’s horror trilogy capper MaXXXine out Friday. My detailed prediction posts on both can be accessed here:
While not setting a franchise record like other follow-ups lately, I have Despicable Me 4 from Illumination Entertainment premiering in line with other entrees. That means a three-day near $80 million with over $125 million when counting Wednesday and Independence Day.
As for MaXXXine, my readers think I’m low. However, I’m struggling to see why it would debut too much higher than predecessors X and Pearl. I have it slated for a fifth place showing, but perhaps I’m not being generous enough.
Inside Out 2 will slide to second with perhaps a low to mid 40s percentage ease considering the Despicable competition. A Quiet Place: Day One may experience a 50-55% drop after its series best start (more on that below). The 4 slot (barring a MaXXXine over performance) should go to Bad Boys: Ride or Die with Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 in sixth after its so-so unveiling.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $79.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $126.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $32.6 million
3. A Quiet Place: Day One
Predicted Gross: $24 million
4. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
5. MaXXXine
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
6. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
Box Office Results (June 28-30)
Despite the aforementioned loud opening from A Quiet Place: Day One, Disney/Pixar ruled the roost for a third weekend with Inside Out 2. It took in $57.5 million (just below my $61.5 million prediction) for a three-week haul of $469 million. The sequel also crossed a billion bucks worldwide.
Day One was second with $52.2 million, eclipsing my estimate of $46.3 million and the $50.2 million that A Quiet Place earned back in 2018. I do think its sophomore weekend dip will be more pronounced than part 1 (which only fell by a third). Either way it’s a fine result for a franchise that looks to keep chugging along.
The news wasn’t as good for Kevin Costner as his Western epic Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 lassoed $11 million in third compared to my $14.8 million projection. Reportedly self-funded by its star/writer/director, this is on the lower end of its range and troubling considering the rumored $100 million price tag.
Bad Boys: Ride or Die was fourth with $10.3 million (I said $11.2 million) for a four-week gross of $165 million.
Indian sci-fi tale Kalki 2898 AD was fifth with $5.2 million and I incorrectly had it outside the high five and didn’t do a forecast.
The Bikeriders plummeted 66% to sixth with $3.3 million (I was generous at $4.6 million) for a mere $16 million in ten days.
Finally, Yorgos Lanthimos’s anthology Kinds of Kindness was ninth on just under 500 screens with $1.5 million. I thought it might get a bit more with a $3.2 million call.
The Despicable Me/Minions has been a financial force over the past decade and a half, but not so much with awards voters. Despicable Me 4 is out this Wednesday from director Chris Renaud. Vocal work is provided by Steve Carell, Kristen Wiig, Pierre Coffin, Joey King, Miranda Cosgrove, Stephen Colbert, Steve Coogan, Sofia Vergara, Chloe Fineman, and Will Ferrell.
The three direct predecessors and the two spinoff Minions titles have eaxg grossed $250 million or higher domestically since 2010. Only Despicable Me 2 generated any Oscar nods. Those were in Animated Feature and Original Song (the Pharrell smash “Happy”) and Frozen beat it out in both races (the latter with its signature tune “Let It Go”).
Part 4 of the franchise has a 63% RT rating. That’s lower than part 1 (80%) and 2 (75%) and Minions:The Rise of Gru (70%) while slightly above part 3 (58%) and Minions (56%). In short, this does appear primed to enter the series back in the Oscar mix. Lucky for it, the dollars should continue to flow. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Universal and Illumination Entertainment have posted great results through five pictures in the Despicable Me franchise and they look to extend their luck with part 4 on July 3rd. The animated comedy is directed by Chris Renaud with Steve Carell, Kristin Wiig, Pierre Coffin, Joey King, Miranda Cosgrove, Stephen Colbert, Steve Coogan, Sofia Vergara, Chloe Fineman, and Will Ferrell providing voiceover work.
This has been a highly durable series in its nearly decade and a half of existence. Despicable Me debuted with $56 million in July of 2010 with an eventual $251 million domestic gross. Part 2 arrived on Wednesday, July 3, 2013 and therefore had the same release pattern as this entry. It took in $84 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday three-day with $143 million when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday (the 4th). The final tally was $368 million. Despicable Me 3 came in with $72 million in July 2017 and $264 million overall.
I didn’t forget the Minions. The spin-off tale tallied $115 million out of the gate in July 2015 with $336 million domestically. Two summers ago, sequel Minions: The Rise of Gru banked $107 million en route to $370 million total.
Animation brought summer 2024 out of the doldrums via Inside Out 2 which vastly exceeded expectations. It’ll still be making money over the holiday frame, but Despicable should fall in range with some of its predecessors. I don’t foresee a premiere as high as part 2 (though no one thought Inside Out 2 would amass over $150 million in weekend 1).
A mid to high 70s Friday to Sunday should mean a five-day in the $125 million plus space for another Despicable victory.
Despicable Me 4 opening weekend prediction: $79.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $126.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
The first box office weekend of the new year has Universal and Blumhouse diving in with their supernatural horror flick Night Swim. It’s the only newcomer out amongst holiday leftovers. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
My mid teens estimate for Swim puts it in contention for the top spot. If it underperforms, that could allow Wonka another frame atop the charts. There’s also the distinct possibility that it exceeds expectations as M3GAN did for the same studio and production company one year back. I landed on it coming in q a bit behind Wonka.
With Wonka holding the runner-up spot, Migration should stay in third with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom sliding to fourth and Anyone but You rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $16.3 million
2. Night Swim
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million
3. Migration
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
4. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
5. Anyone but You
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
Box Office Results (December 29-31)
Wonka was the top confection for audiences with $22.6 million in its third frame as 2023 wrapped up. That’s right on target with my $22.4 million call as the musical origin tale has amassed $133 million thus far and stands as the holiday pic of the season.
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, as expected, fell to second with $18.2 million in its sophomore outing. A slight improvement over my $16.8 million forecast, it faces choppy waters compared to the massive grosses of its 2018 predecessor. Overseas grosses are fairly decent and it stands at $76 million stateside.
Migration had a nice hold in third with $17 million, on pace with my $17.9 million projection. The animated adventure from Illumination has formed a tally of $54 million after two weeks.
After a loud Christmas Day start, The Color Purple is settling down. It managed $11.7 million in its first full weekend in fourth, falling under my $15.4 million prediction. The musical has taken in $44 million since 12/25.
Rom com Anyone but You rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it in that spot. With $8.7 million, it has surpassed estimates with $24 million in two weeks.
Another holiday offering that has exceeded anticipation is George Clooney’s The Boys in the Boat. The period piece sports drama was sixth with $8.4 million (I said $7.9 million) for $21 million total since Christmas Day.
Migration is the latest animated offering from Illumination and it arrives in theaters this Friday. The comedic adventure is directed by Benjamin Renner with a voice cast including Kumail Nanjiani, Elizabeth Banks, Awkwafina, Keegan-Michael Key, David Mitchell, Carol Kane, and Danny DeVito.
With its review embargo lifted, the Rotten Tomatoes meter is a fair though far from overwhelming 71%. This is Illumination’s 14th big screen effort that began with Despicable Me back in 2010. While the studio’s product usually succeeds in being a box office winner, only Despicable Me 2 in 2013 managed a Best Animated Feature Oscar at the Oscars.
Don’t look for Migration to be the second. Precursors like Critics Choice and the Globes have already ignored it. Illumination does have another 2023 contender in the financial behemoth The Super Mario Bros. Movie. The chances are stronger (if still unlikely) that it makes the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (12/21): I am increasing my The Color Purple one-day projection from $7.9M to $12.9M
With Christmas falling on a Monday this year, this is one of the most jam packed Yuletide box office seasons in memory. There’s a whole bunch of cinematic gifts that studios hope open well. On Friday (December 22), Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom looks to top the charts and reverse the misfortunes of the DCU in 2023. Joining Aquaman for the long weekend are Illumination Entertainment’s animated Migration, wrestling biopic The Iron Claw with Zac Efron, Indian Telugu-language action epic Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire, Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell’s rom com Anyone but You, and the nationwide expansion of Oscar hopeful Poor Things with Emma Stone. On Christmas Day, they are joined by The Color Purple (adapting the Broadway musical which adapted the 1985 Spielberg pic which adapted the acclaimed novel), Michael Mann’s Ferrari with Adam Driver, and the George Clooney directed Olympic period piece The Boys in the Boat. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all nine (yes, nine) right here:
Even Aquaman himself, Jason Momoa, recently stated in an interview that the future of the franchise is murky at best. Despite the 2018 original making over a billion bucks worldwide, expectations for the sequel are underwater after the DCU’s year that included flops Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle. The worst case scenario is that this opens second to Wonka. On the bright side: Warner Bros gets the #1 slot either way. A low to mid 40s beginning from Friday to Monday is nothing to brag about, but that should get it to first place.
Wonka got off to a pretty sweet start at the top of its anticipated range (more on that below). Since I’m doing predictions from December 22-25, it may only decline from the high 30s to the mid to high 20s with bright weekends ahead (especially over New Year’s).
Therefore Wonka might be the family choice over Christmas and that could put Migration in third with a high teens or low 20s output. For Illumination, the silver lining should be small declines in subsequent frames.
I’m expecting a fourth place finish for The Iron Claw as wrestling fans could turn out to the tune of high single digits.
As for the three features out on Christmas Day, this obviously means I’m only doing a one-day projection. The Color Purple, with its well-known source material, should do best among that trio and I have its single day managing a fifth place showing.
Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire could over perform, but I have it in ninth. The newcomers should dominate the top ten as I have Anyone but You in sixth with the Poor Things expansion in seventh.
I do have holdovers The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes and Trolls Band Together finishing out the top ten.
That means my single day estimates for Ferrari ($2.1 million) and The Boys in the Boat ($1.1 million) leave them outside the top ten.
Truth be told, this is a highly unpredictable Christmas weekend with lots of moving parts. Here’s my best attempt at that top 10 and keep in mind that this is for Friday-Monday:
1. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
Predicted Gross: $42.8 million
2. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $31.4 million
3. Migration
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
4. The Color Purple
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
5. The Iron Claw
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
6. Anyone but You
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
7. Poor Things
Predicted Gross: $5 million
8. Salaar: Part One – Ceasefire
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
9. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
10. Trolls Band Together
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
Box Office Results (December 15-17)
Warner Bros might face choppy waters ahead with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, but the Wonka opening went swimmingly. Timothee Chalamet’s take on the iconic chocolatier was treated to a $39 million start. That’s slightly ahead of my $36.4 million prediction as the family pic should have a robust road ahead this season.
It was the only newcomer this past weekend (which makes sense considering the onslaught ahead). The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes stayed put in second with $5.8 million, a smidge under my $6.6 million call. The prequel is up to $145 million after five weekends.
The Boy and the Heron, after its better than anticipated bow, dropped from 1st to 3rd with $5.5 million. That’s lower than my $7 million forecast as the ten-day take is $23 million.
Godzilla Minus One was fourth with $5 million (I said $5.7 million) for $34 million after three weeks.
Trolls Band Together rounded out the top five with $3.9 million compared to my $4.6 million projection. The threequel is approaching nine figures after five weeks with $88 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Have a wonderful holiday and until next time…
Universal and Illumination Entertainment hope families flock to Migration when it debuts over the long holiday weekend on December 22nd. The animated comedic adventure is directed by Benjamin Renner with a voice cast including Kumail Nanjiani, Elizabeth Banks, Awkwafina, Keegan-Michael Key, David Mitchell, Carol Kane, and Danny DeVito.
This studio knows how to put out blockbusters with the Despicable Me and Minions franchises. They had one of the biggest hits of the year with The Super Mario Bros. Movie. During Christmastime at multiplexes, films geared toward kids can start out a little slower than they normally would. However, they tend to leg out impressively over the weekends to come.
That might be the case with Migration. A high teens or lows 20s start sounds about right.
Migration opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:
This little blog of mine is over 10 years old now and a summer tradition has been to highlight the cinematic seasons of 30, 20, and 10 years ago. We saw recaps of 1992, 2002, and 2012 around this time in 2022. Now this site is aged enough that I shall only look back at a decade ago. Therefore let’s shine a light on 2013 and the offerings between May and August.
Here’s how it works. I’ll recount the top 10 grossers domestically as well as other notable features and noteworthy flops. It was the summer after The Avengers dominated and Tony Stark still managed to rule in his own franchise.
Let the countdown begin!
10. The Great Gatsby
Domestic Gross: $144 million
Baz Luhrmann’s second collaboration with Leonardo DiCaprio may have drawn mixed critical reaction, but audiences turned up and it won both Oscars it was nominated for (Production Design and Costume Design). It is still the stylish filmmaker’s largest worldwide earner even with last year’s success of Elvis.
9. We’re the Millers
Domestic Gross: $150 million
Jennifer Aniston and Jason Sudeikis headlined this raunchy comedy from Dodgeball maker Rawson Marshall Thurber. Like Gatsby, critics weren’t overly kind but crowds liked what they saw.
8. The Heat
Domestic Gross: $159 million
Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy (hot off Bridesmaids) teamed up for this buddy cop laugher from Paul Feig and it became the summer’s hottest live-action movie in its genre. Bullock would have a massive earner and Oscar nod in the fall with Gravity.
7. World War Z
Domestic Gross: $202 million
Some had it pegged as a potential financial disappointment, but this would turn out to be the biggest grossing zombie flick ever. Despite Brad Pitt’s presence and plenty of development rumors, a planned sequel has yet to materialize.
6. Star Trek Into Darkness
Domestic Gross: $228 million
JJ Abrams helmed this sequel two and a half years before taking on Star Wars: The Force Awakens. It holds the title of best global earning movie of the franchise.
5. Fast & Furious 6
Domestic Gross: $238 million
Vin Diesel and Paul Walker revved the series to unforeseen moneymaking heights at the time though part 7 would outdo it two years later. Six months after 6‘s release, Walker perished tragically in auto accident.
4. Monsters University
Domestic Gross: $268 million
The long gestating sequel to 2001’s Monsters University was a profitable venture for Pixar. It failed to nab an Animated Feature nod from the Academy (rare for the studio), but Disney likely wept into their cash.
3. Man of Steel
Domestic Gross: $291 million
The first picture in the DCEU came with gargantuan expectations with Zack Snyder directing and Henry Cavill donning the S. Reaction from critics and audiences was all over the map. Compared to this summer with the epic failure of The Flash, these were kinda the good ole days for DC.
2. Despicable Me 2
Domestic Gross: $368 million
Illumination dwarfed Pixar in the animated race with this sequel that became parent studio Universal’s most profitable film of all time. It’s also responsible for the season’s ubiquitous ditty “Happy” from Pharrell Williams.
1. Iron Man 3
Domestic Gross: $409 million
Tony Stark’s third solo adventure was generally considered an improvement on #2 as Shane Black handled the behind the camera work. It ended up as the year’s second best grosser behind November’s The Hunger Games: Catching Fire.
Now for some others worthy of discussion:
The Conjuring
Domestic Gross: $137 million
It might be just outside the top ten in 11th, but James Wan’s horror classic spawned a decade’s worth of sequels (two thus far) and spin-offs (Annabelle, The Nun) with no end in sight.
Now You See Me
Domestic Gross: $117 million
The heist pic from Louis Leterrier (who just directed Fast X) was a sleeper smash with a $350 million worldwide haul. A less regarded sequel came in 2016.
The Butler
Lee Daniels helmed this decades spanning tale of Forest Whitaker’s White House employee with Oprah Winfrey as his troubled wife. The studio was likely hoping for more awards attention than it ended up with, but the earnings were impressive.
Pacific Rim
Domestic Gross: $101 million
Guillermo del Toro’s monster mashup didn’t wow with a significant domestic take, but the overseas dollars were enough to spawn a panned 2018 sequel. The international haul makes it the Oscar winner’s personal best.
This Is the End
Domestic Gross: $101 million
This end of the world saga from Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg was a star studded (from Michael Cera to Rihanna) dark comedy with critics on its side.
The Purge
Domestic Gross: $64 million
This dystopian horror pic launched another money minting series and was an early sleeper success for Blumhouse.
Blue Jasmine
Predicted Gross: $33 million
That number marks an impressive one for Woody Allen in the 21st century and this nabbed Cate Blanchett a Best Actress Academy Award.
Fruitvale Station
Domestic Gross: $16 million
Marking the first collaboration between Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan, this indie drama was a critical darling. The pair would achieve colossal success in the years to follow with Creed and Black Panther.
There were lots of hits a decade ago. Yet there’s always the projects that don’t match expectations.
The Hangover Part III
Domestic Gross: $112 million
Audiences were growing weary of The Wolf Pack in the lambasted third entry. It came in well below the previous two.
Elysium
Domestic Gross: $93 million
Neill Blomkamp’s District 9 in 2009 was nominated for Best Picture. This sci-fi follow up with Matt Damon was considered a letdown by not joining the century club.
The Lone Ranger
Domestic Gross: $89 million
I’m gonna go ahead and say you couldn’t green light this $250 million adventure starring Johnny Depp and Armie Hammer today. It turns out Disney shouldn’t have 10 years ago as this came in far under expectations. The box office magic that director Gore Verbinski and Depp created with Pirates of the Caribbean was gone.
White House Down
Predicted Gross: $73 million
Roland Emmerich’s latest with Channing Tatum as a secret service agent and Jamie Foxx as POTUS had its thunder stolen in the spring by the similarly themed and better regarded Olympus Has Fallen (which spawned two sequels).
After Earth
Predicted Gross: $60 million
Moviegoers slapped down M. Night Shyamalan’s sci-fi epic starring the father son duo of Will and Jaden Smith. Reviews were harsh with a 12% Rotten Tomatoes rating.
The Internship
Domestic Gross: $44 million
Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson’s 2005 romp Wedding Crashers was a $209 million earning smash. Eight years later, very few signed up for this forgettable reunion.
R.I.P.D.
Predicted Gross: $33 million
It might have been going for the Men in Black crowd, but audiences shunned this sci-fi comedy with Jeff Bridges and Ryan Reynolds. Somehow a direct to DVVD prequel was commissioned and released last year.
And there you have it! A look back at 2013 in the multiplex. I’ll have a 2014 recap conjured up next summer…
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