Lionsgate is hoping the Jesus Revolution picks up plenty of followers when it debuts February 24th. The faith based drama set in the 1970s is directed by Jon Erwin and Brent McCorkle. Erwin, along with his brother Andrew, are responsible for making such genre successes as Woodlawn, I Can Only Imagine, and American Underdog. The cast includes Joel Courtney, Anna Grace Barlow, Jonathan Roumie, Kimberly Williams-Paisley, and Kelsey Grammer.
Christian themed pics are tricky to predict. They can often exceed expectations, but there’s a few that don’t match forecasts. The track history of the Erwins is more with the former. A gross exceeding $10 million is certainly doable. Underdog, focused on the rise of quarterback Kurt Warner, made $5.9 million in its premiere. However, it opened during Christmas weekend of 2021 when competition was fierce. I’ll say Revolution tops that figure while not hitting double digits.
Jesus Revolution opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million
**Blogger’s Update (01/18): Already souring on this and revising estimate from $3.2 million to $2.4 million
A historical romance set during the California gold rush, Redeeming Love will attempt to cash in with a female crowd on January 21st. It’s directed by D.J. Caruso, trying on a different genre after helming thrillers and action fare such as Disturbia and xXx: Return of Xander Cage. The cast is headlined by Abigail Cowen and Tom Lewis with a supporting cast including Logan Marshall-Green, Famke Janssen, Nina Dobrev, and Eric Dane.
Love is based on a 1991 novel by Francine Rivers (her and the director share screenplay credit). Pinnacle Peak Pictures is the distributor, known for their faith-based efforts like God’s Not Dead and Do You Believe? The production team is responsible for the sleeper hit I Can Only Imagine.
Slated to premiere on around 1800 screens, the combo of appeal to women and the possibility of Christian audiences turning out could cause this to over perform. We’ve seen it before (Pinnacle’s Unplanned from 2019 made over $6 million in its first weekend). I do question how widely this has been promoted and the relatively small screen count could be a hindrance. Redeeming might manage a gross of over $5 million, but I’ll say $3-4 million is more likely.
Redeeming Love opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million
For my The King’s Daughter prediction, click here:
American Underdog tells the story of Kurt Warner, who went from undrafted quarterback to Super Bowl winner in his first season as a starter. It comes from directors Andrew and Joe Erwin, who have found success with faith based dramas like Woodlawn (another true life gridiron tale) and I Can Only Imagine. Zachary Levi of Shazam! fame is Warner with Anna Paquin as his wife and Dennis Quaid playing Coach Dick Vermeil.
Opening Christmas Day (a Saturday), Underdog will indeed be just that considering the holiday competition. The Erwin brothers have a commendable track record, but whether this registers with a Christian fanbase is an open question.
Underdog could surprise and reach double digits, but a gross of $6-8 million for its (rare) two-day opening weekend is likely where this plays.
American Underdog opening weekend prediction: $7.2 million
For my The Matrix Resurrections prediction, click here:
Two years after their faith-based drama centered on a song shocked box office prognosticators, the brothers Andrew and Jon Erwin are back with I Still Believe. This follow-up is also catering to Christian audiences and has a musical inspiration. A biographical story focused on singer Jeremy Camp, the pic finds KJ Apa playing him with a supporting cast including Britt Robertson, Gary Sinise, and Shania Twain.
The aforementioned feature from the Erwins was I Can Only Imagine and it certainly impressed moviegoers much. Released in the same mid March frame, Imagine took in an unexpected $17 million out of the gate and $83 million overall domestically. That was with a meager $7 million budget.
Believe hits IMAX screens next Wednesday with the traditional wide release on Friday. Faith-based flicks are hard to project and we have seen examples of over and under performances in recent times. Yet with the pedigree involved, I can easily believe this gets close or matches to what Imagine accomplished 2018. With the two extra days of release on the giant screen format, I’ll put it just under.
I Still Believe opening weekend prediction: $14.6 million
This Friday, the faith-based military drama GodBlesstheBrokenRoad parks in approximately 1200 theaters. To say the pic has an eclectic mix of participants is an understatement. Harold Cronk directs and he’s responsible for distributor Freestyle Releasing largest hit God’sNotDead and its sequel. It’s based on a song made known by country band Rascal Flatts (which automatically causes me to point out that they hail from my home of Columbus, Ohio). And the cast includes Lindsay Pulsipher, Jordin Sparks, Robin Givens, and former NFL superstar LaDainian Tomlinson.
Quite the grouping, huh? The low number of theaters certainly limits its prospects. That said, pics geared toward Christian audiences can often surprise. We all saw a huge example of that earlier this year when ICanOnlyImagine (also based on a song) demolished all expectations.
I don’t see this happening. I think the road for this ends with $3 million as a likely ceiling and I’ll go under that.
GodBlesstheBrokenRoad opening weekend prediction: $2.1 million
A quartet of newcomers roll into the marketplace this weekend looking to make some noise at the box office. We have the critically acclaimed horror pic A Quiet Place, critically acclaimed raunchy comedy Blockers, true-life sports drama The Miracle Season, and true-life political drama Chappaquiddick. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
A Quiet Place seems primed for a healthy debut and my plus $30 million estimate places it firmly in first place. Blockers certainly has breakout potential with its positive word-of-mouth and it could manage to climb higher than my low to mid teens projection. That would put it in third place behind the second weekend of Ready Player One, which I’m thinking will lose close to half its audience in its sophomore frame.
As for The Miracle Season and Chappaquiddick, my respective estimates of $3.8 million and $2.3 million put both of them outside the top 5.
Acrimony (which was 2nd over the Easter holiday) is likely to suffer a hefty decline in weekend #2 and that could leave it battling Black Panther for the five-spot. I’ll give Marvel’s superhero the edge. In fact, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that I Could Only Imagine could place fifth, pushing Acrimony to sixth.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. A Quiet Place
Predicted Gross: $31.2 million
2. Ready Player One
Predicted Gross: $21.8 million
3. Blockers
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
4. Black Panther
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
5. Acrimony
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
Box Office Results (March 30-April 1)
Ready Player One easily ruled the charts over Easter weekend. It met expectations and delivered Steven Spielberg his largest opener in a decade since 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (and fifth largest ever not adjusted for inflation). The sci-fi adventure grossed $41.7 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, topping my $36.7 million estimate and $53.7 million since its Wednesday evening roll out (just ahead of my $50.8 million projection).
The Tyler Perry directed psychological thriller Acrimony exceeded my expectations, opening in second with a solid $17.1 million compared to my $13.2 million projection. As mentioned, a large second weekend dip is probable.
Black Panther placed third with $11.4 million to bring its jaw dropping total to $650 million. My prediction? $11.4 million!!
Surprise hit I Can Only Imagine was fourth with $10.4 million, just under my $11.2 million prediction for $55 million overall.
Last week’s #1 Pacific Rim Uprising fell to fifth with a massive 67% drop and $9.3 million, under my $11.7 million estimate. The sequel has made $45 million in two weeks.
Finally, faith-based sequel God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness stumbled out of the gate with a meager $2.6 million debut in 12th place, just over half of my $5.1 million forecast.
Three new films try to fill their box office Easter baskets with dollars this weekend as Steven Spielberg’s futuristic sci-fi adventure Ready Player One, Tyler Perry’s thriller Acrimony with Taraji P. Henson, and faith-based threequel God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness all open. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Ready Player should have no trouble being number one out of the gate. The big budget and well-reviewed pic opens wide on Thursday (a bit odd for a roll out), meaning it will have Wednesday night previews as well. I’ve got it slated for a mid 30s debut over the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend with a $50 million haul when factoring in the extra day. I will note that my projection has steadily risen since last week and we’ll see if I revise it up again before Wednesday evening.
The battle for #2 could be more interesting. Similar genre themed entries as Acrimony have grossed anywhere between low teens and mid 20s. I’ve got Acrimony on the lower end of that spectrum and that should still give it the runner-up spot in my view.
That’s because I’m anticipating a hefty sophomore weekend drop for Pacific Rim Uprising, the current #1. Its 2013 predecessor suffered a 57% dip in its second frame and I expect this to follow suit.
Percentage drop-offs should be much smaller for both Black Panther and I Can Only Imagine. I’m anticipating a photo finish between numbers 3-5.
My $5.1 million estimate for God’s Not Dead leaves it well outside the top 5.
And with that, here’s my top five Easter predictions:
1. Ready Player One
Predicted Gross: $36.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $50.8 million (Thursday to Sunday)
2. Acrimony
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
3. Pacific Rim Uprising
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million
4. Black Panther
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. I Can Only Imagine
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
Box Office Results (March 23-25)
Pacific Rim Uprising nabbed the top spot over the weekend with $28.1 million, above my $23.4 million prediction. While my estimate was low, its debut was quite a bit less than the $37 million achieved by its 2013 Guillermo del Toro directed predecessor. Look for it to see a big dip this weekend.
After five weeks perched at #1, Black Panther finally fell to second with $17 million (I said $17.9 million). Marvel is surely celebrating, however, as Panther is now the highest grossing Marvel Cinematic Universe film of all time with a total of $631 million – surpassing the $623 million made by 2012’s The Avengers.
I Could Only Imagine continued its highly impressive run in third place with $13.6 million (I was close at $13 million) to bring its two-week tally to $38 million. I look for it to experience a small decline over the Easter holiday.
Animated sequel Sherlock Gnomes had trouble detecting a solid family audience, opening in 4th place with a weak $10.6 million compared my $13.7 million projection. The seven-year gap between its predecessor Gnomeo and Juliet and this probably didn’t help.
Tomb Raider rounded out the top five in its disappointing run with $10.1 million (I was a touch higher at $11.2 million) for a ten-day tally of just $41 million.
Biblical drama Paul, Apostle of Christ failed to reach its intended audience in an 8th place opening at $5.1 million, on pace with my $5.5 million prediction.
YA romance Midnight Sun had a lackluster start with $4.1 million in 10th place, on target with my $4 million take.
Finally, the Steven Soderbergh iPhone shot thriller Unsane debuted in 11th place with $3.7 million, in line with my $3.9 million estimate.
This Easter weekend, God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness debuts in theaters. It is the third Christian themed drama in a franchise that began four years ago. Michael Mason directs a cast that includes David A.R. White, John Corbett, Shane Harper, Ted McGinley, Jennifer Taylor, Tatum O’Neal, rapper Shwayze, and Cissy Houston (mother of Whitney).
The Pure Flix release finds itself in direct competition with some similar genre fare. This is the third faith-based release in as many weeks. I Can Only Imagine will be in its third weekend and Paul, Apostle of Christ in its second. In 2014, God’s Not Dead premiered to $9.2 million and legged out splendidly to a $60 million domestic gross. Two years later, God’s Not Dead 2 couldn’t match it with a $7.6 million debut and only a $20 million overall total.
Even with the advantage of the Easter opening, the competition and dwindling fortune of part 2 could hinder this. I’ll predict it continues that downward trajectory.
God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million
We have a quintet of pictures entering the marketplace this weekend and it may mean Black Panther is dethroned after five weeks atop the charts. They are: sci-fi sequel Pacific Rim Uprising, animated sequel Sherlock Gnomes, Biblical drama Paul, Apostle of Christ, YA romance Midnight Sun, and psychological thriller Unsane. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all of them here:
Even though I have the Pacific follow-up generating less coin than its 2013 predecessor, its haul should be enough to have it rise to the top. That said, Black Panther has continually defied expectations and held off other high-profile titles such as A Wrinkle in Time and Tomb Raider from getting to first place.
Sherlock Gnomes is a question mark in my view. Its predecessor – 2011’s Gnomeo and Juliet – had a solid $25 million opening, but that was seven long years ago. My lower teens estimate may nab it a third place showing.
If Sherlock fails to meet expectations, it could allow Tomb Raider or I Could Only Imagine to place third. The second weekend of Imagine should particularly be interesting to watch as it significantly topped all expectations and could be set for a small drop based on word-of-mouth. Raider, on the other hand, should lose arouns half its audience after a disappointing start.
Paul, Apostle of Christ is slated to open on only about 1400 screens and my $5.5 million estimate for it puts it outside the top 5. I also expect the other two newbies to debut weakly with Midnight Sun predicted at $4 million and Unsane at $3.9 million.
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:
1. Pacific Rim Uprising
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million
2. Black Panther
Predicted Gross: $17.9 million
3. Sherlock Gnomes
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million
4. I Can Only Imagine
Predicted Gross: $13 million
5. Tomb Raider
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
Box Office Results (March 16-18)
Black Panther held off Lara Croft and was #1 for the fifth consecutive weekend. It’s the first picture to accomplish that feat since Avatar eight years ago. The Marvel behemoth grossed $26.6 million (in line with my $25.7 million projection) to bring its total to $605 million. It currently sits at 7th on the all-time domestic earners list and this coming weekend, it should supplant The Avengers at #5 to become the highest grossing comic book adaptation ever in the United States.
Tomb Raider had to settle for the runner-up position with $23.6 million, shy of my $26.4 million prediction. The franchise reboot got off to a shaky start and future sequels appear questionable at best.
The box office story of the weekend was faith-based musical drama I Can Only Imagine, which astonished predictors like me with a third place opening of $17.1 million. I was, um, a bit lower at $5.4 million. Imagine has clearly captivated Christian audiences and it posted the largest per screen average of any pic in the top 10. With the Easter holiday approaching, it could be in for a bountiful road ahead.
A Wrinkle in Time dropped to fourth with $16.2 million (I said $16.4 million) in weekend #2, bringing its lackluster tally to $60 million. At this point, it appears questionable that it will reach $100 million domestically.
Love, Simon took the five spot with $11.7 million, a bit under my $13.3 million estimate. The coming-of-age drama did receive positive reviews and audience word-of-mouth is strong, so it could experience small declines in coming weekends.
I incorrectly had Game Night at #5 until Imagine upended that, but it grossed $5.6 million for sixth. My prediction? $5.6 million!
Finally, 7 Days in Entebbe failed to bring in an audience, debuting in 13th place with $1.5 million. On the bright side (?), it did top my $972,000 forecast.
Blogger’s Note (03/19): The reported 1400 theater count has caused me to downsize my Apostle prediction from $10.3 million to just $5.5 million.
Rising in theaters a week before the Easter holiday frame is Paul, ApostleofChrist. The Biblical drama casts Jim Faulkner as Saint Paul and Jim Caviezel as Saint Luke. The supporting cast includes Olivier Martinez and Joanne Whalley. Andrew Wyatt directs.
Faith based pictures are often tricky to project, but its pre Easter release date should only help. It also doesn’t hurt that Caviezel starred in the highest grossing (by far) genre entry, 2004’s ThePassionoftheChrist.
There is some competition for the same audience as the more contemporary Christian themed ICanOnlyImagine will be in its sophomore weekend. A decent comp for Apostle could be 2016’s Risen, which earned $11.8 million for its beginning. I’ll put it a bit under that.
Paul, ApostleofChrist opening weekend prediction: $5.5 million
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