Blogger’s Note (04/11): On the eve of its premiere, revising this down from $13.2M to $11.7M
The studio Laika is back with their brand of critically acclaimed animated films next weekend with MissingLink. The stop-motion adventure follows an explorer tracking a Bigfoot with Hugh Jackman voicing the explorer and Zach Galifianakis as the creature. Other recognizable faces behind the mic include Zoe Saldana, Emma Thompson, Stephen Fry, Timothy Olyphant, and Matt Lucas. Chris Butler, who made the company’s 2012 effort ParaNorman directs.
All four Laika titles in the past decade have grossed between $12-$17 million for their starts. On the high-end, there’s 2014’s TheBoxtrolls with just over $17 million. On the low-end is 2016’s KuboandtheTwoStrings with $12.6 million. I see no reason why Link wouldn’t fall in that same range.
Reviews have been positive as this currently stands at 90% on Rotten Tomatoes. Of the new releases out next weekend, it actually opens widest on approximately 3500 screens (more than Hellboy).
I don’t believe this will top Boxtrolls, but a premiere between $13-$14 million is certainly possible.
MissingLink opening weekend prediction: $11.7 million
Jason Reitman’s TheFrontRunner is a true political story that transfixed the nation three decades ago. The Presidential campaign of Colorado Senator Gary Hart (Hugh Jackman) happened at a time just as cable was set to dominate how we get our news. Newspapers could see it coming and The MiamiHerald, for better or worse, got ahead of the curve by venturing into tabloid territory. The WashingtonPost here is uncertain whether they should veer in that direction. However, they see the sensationalism train beginning to roll and can’t be the highbrow publication to pump the brakes.
It was The Post that exploited a massive Commander-in-Chief scandals a few years prior with Watergate. Here it’s the extramarital activities of Hart. We first witness him in 1984 conceding to Democratic nominee Walter Mondale, who would lose badly to President Reagan. Yet his run wasn’t wasted as he becomes the film’s title four years later. He appears set to top the ticket until three wild weeks occur in 1987. It involves his relationship with a young woman Donna Rice (Sara Paxton) and the media’s fixation on it. The days of reporters looking the other way when it comes to extracurricular activity is finished.
In this screenplay from Reitman, Matt Bai, and Jay Carson, Hart is alternatively seen as a sympathetic figure while not completely ignoring that he was a lousy spouse. Vera Farmiga is wife Lee and she’s given a few moments to shine as his conflicted partner. Her performance, while more limited in time, is the strongest. She emerges as the most fascinating character, but the marriage is given short treatment. This film is more geared towards critiquing our feeding frenzy media landscape. And while the times were a-changin’ thirty years ago, the script never finds an angle to shed any meaningful light on it.
Candidate Hart himself didn’t see the tide turning and felt his personal life was just that. As played by Jackman, he’s an enigma focused on policy proposals and not the show biz acumen that comes with the territory (let’s not forget he’s attempting to succeed the first movie star POTUS). It frustrates staff including his campaign manager (J.K. Simmons). They believe in him, but realize he gets in his own way.
TheFrontRunner tries to say Important Things about a campaign that’s influenced all that have followed. Hart’s foibles in our current environment may be considered quaint. That said, the pic rarely makes its points seem bold or fresh. There’s been fictional politico tales such as PrimaryColors and Bulworth that were more entertaining and perceptive in their take on this particular universe. This lies toward the back of the pack in the genre.
As one year turns to the next in short order, it got me thinking. What are some examples of actors and directors who had remarkable calendar frames over the past few decades? The guidelines are pretty simple – the individual must have had two (and in a couple of cases, three or more) pictures that made an impact during 19(fill in the blank) or 20(fill in the blank).
And wouldn’t you know it? My ruminations quickly turned into a lengthy list that I’ve paired down to a top 25. Let’s call this Best Year’s Ever and count down from #25 to #1!
25. Channing Tatum (2012)
It was a busy year for the performer to say the least. Tatum was in Steven Soderbergh’s Haywire, but three major roles made him the star he is today. There was the hit romance TheVow, hit comedy 21JumpStreet, and his signature and semi-autobiographical title role in the summer sleeper MagicMike (also from Mr. Soderbergh).
24. John Travolta (1996)
Two years following his major comeback in PulpFiction and a year following his Golden Globe nominated lead in GetShorty, Travolta’s hot streak continued with three hits: John Woo’s action thriller BrokenArrow and fantasy dramas Phenomenon and Michael.
23. Clint Eastwood (1971)
The last two months of 1971 were fruitful for the legend. In November, he made his directorial debut with the well-reviewed psychological thriller PlayMistyforMe. This began a career of dozens of behind the camera works, including Best Picture winners Unforgiven and MillionDollarBaby. In December, Eastwood starred as DirtyHarry which spawned his lucky cop franchise.
22. Sigourney Weaver (1988)
Weaver won two Golden Globes 30 years ago – Best Actress (Drama) for GorillasintheMist and Supporting Actress for WorkingGirl. She would be nominated for two Oscars as well, but come up short. All part of a remarkable decade that included Ghostbusters and Aliens.
21. Joe Pesci (1990)
Pesci won an Oscar for his unforgettable supporting work in Martin Scorsese’s GoodFellas. That same fall, he was a burglar terrorizing Macaulay Culkin in the holiday classic HomeAlone.
20. Kevin Spacey (1995)
Current scandals aside, there’s no denying Spacey was the movie villain of 1995. He won an Academy Award as (spoiler alert!) Keyser Soze in TheUsualSuspects and as a demented serial killer in Seven. Earlier in the year, he costarred with Dustin Hoffman and Morgan Freeman in Outbreak and headlined the critically approved indie comedy SwimmingwithSharks.
19. Nicolas Cage (1997)
LeavingLasVegas awarded Cage his Oscar two years prior. By the summer of 1997, he was a full-fledged action hero with two blockbusters in the same month: ConAir and Face/Off.
18. Will Ferrell (2003)
Ferrell’s transformation from SNL favorite to movie star happened here with the spring’s OldSchool as Frank the Tank and in the winter as Buddy in Elf.
17. Morgan Freeman (1989)
The nation’s Narrator-in-Chief had a trio of significant roles nearly three decades ago – his Oscar nominated chauffeur in the Best Picture winner DrivingMissDaisy, a dedicated and stern principal in LeanonMe, and a Civil War officer in Glory.
16. Steven Soderbergh (2000)
The prolific filmmaker made two Best Picture nominees with ErinBrockovich and Traffic (he would win Best Director for the latter). Both surpassed the century mark at the box office and Julia Roberts won Best Actress for Brockovich and Benicio del Toro took Supporting Actor in Traffic.
15. Halle Berry (2001)
Ms. Berry had a revealing role in the summer action fest Swordfish. She then became the first (and thus far only) African-American to win Best Actress for Monster’sBall. This was all sandwiched between X–Men hits.
14. Hugh Jackman (2017)
Berry’s X–Men cast mate Jackman retired his Wolverine character to critical and audience admiration with Logan in the spring. At the end of the year, his musical TheGreatestShowman was an unexpected smash.
13. Leonardo DiCaprio (2002)
Five years after Titanic, the jury was still out as to whether DiCaprio’s leading man status would hold up. His roles in Martin Scorsese’s GangsofNewYork and Steven Spielberg’s CatchMeIfYouCan left little doubt. He’s been one of Hollywood’s most dependable stars since.
12. Francis Ford Coppola (1974)
In 1972, Coppola made perhaps the greatest American film of all time with TheGodfather. Two years later, its sequel came with enormous expectations and exceeded them. Like part one, it won Best Picture. As if that weren’t enough, he made another Picture nominee in ‘74 with the Gene Hackman surveillance thriller TheConversation.
11. Michael Douglas (1987)
His signature role as greedy tycoon Gordon Gekko in Oliver Stone’s WallStreet won him an Oscar and gave him one of the most famous cinematic speeches ever. He also lit up the screen in the blockbuster thriller FatalAttraction, which was the year’s second largest grosser.
10. Julia Roberts (1999)
She started the decade with a smash star making turn in PrettyWoman. Julia Roberts ended it with two romantic comedy summer $100 million plus earners: NottingHill with Hugh Grant and RunawayBride (which reunited her with Pretty costar Richard Gere). She’d win her Oscar the next year for ErinBrockovich.
9. Tom Cruise (1996)
1986 wasn’t too shabby either with TopGun and TheColorofMoney. Yet it’s a decade later that serves as Cruise’s year with the franchise starter Mission: Impossible in the summer and Cameron Crowe’s JerryMaguire, which earned Cruise a Golden Globe award and an Oscar nod. They were the third and fourth biggest hits of the year, respectively.
8. Sandra Bullock (2013)
Nearly two decades after her breakout role in Speed, Bullock had a banner 2013 alongside Melissa McCarthy in the summer comedy TheHeat and her Oscar nominated turn as a stranded astronaut in the fall’s Gravity.
7. Sylvester Stallone (1985)
Sly was the undisputed champion of the box office (not to mention sequels and Roman numerals) in 1985, notching the second and third top hits of the year behind BacktotheFuture. They were for his two signature characters with Rambo: FirstBloodPartII and RockyIV.
6. Robert Downey Jr. (2008)
A decade after all the wrong kind of headlines for his drug addiction, Downey Jr. pulled off perhaps the most impressive comeback in movie history. 2008 saw him as Tony Stark in IronMan, the film that kicked off the MCU in grand fashion. Later that summer came Ben Stiller’s TropicThunder, which earned Downey a rare Oscar nod for a comedic performance.
5. Tom Hanks (1993)
There’s more than one year to consider for Hanks… 1995 (Apollo13, ToyStory) comes to mind. Yet 1993 saw him with Meg Ryan in the now classic SleeplessinSeattle and winning an Oscar in Philadelphia as a lawyer diagnosed with AIDS. His status as a romantic and dramatic lead was solidified in a matter of months. A consecutive Academy Award followed in 1994 for ForrestGump.
4. Mel Brooks (1974)
The director managed to make two of the most beloved comedies of all time in one year… BlazingSaddles and YoungFrankenstein. The two features combined contain some of the funniest scenes ever filmed.
3. Jennifer Lawrence (2012)
Already an Oscar nominee two years prior for Winter’sBone, Lawrence’s road to superstardom was paved in 2012. In March came TheHungerGames, the year’s third top earner that spawned three sequels. In December came SilverLiningsPlaybook, where she won Best Actress.
2. Jim Carrey (1994)
In 1993, Carrey was known as a great cast member of Fox’s groundbreaking sketch show “In Living Color”. By the end of 1994, he was the most bankable comedic star in America as AceVentura: PetDetective, TheMask, and DumbandDumber all hit screens.
1. Steven Spielberg (1993)
In a list filled with lots of choices, the #1 selection was rather easy. The highest grossing filmmaker of all time’s 1993 was astonishing. Dino tale JurassicPark in the summer was a marvel technical achievement that began a franchise. At the time of its release, it became the largest grosser in history with the top opening weekend yet seen. Six months later, Holocaust epic Schindler’sList won seven Academy Awards (including Picture and for Spielberg’s direction).
I hope your New Year is your best yet, readers! Have a happy one…
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are updated! Here’s some developments from last week to this one:
On the Basis of Sex screened at the AFI Fest and I believe its Oscar hopes in all categories took a significant dip. We’ll see if it can rebound, but it’s dropped out of contention in Picture, Supporting Actor (Armie Hammer), and Original Screenplay with Felicity Jones falling to #10 in Actress.
Speaking of AFI Fest, Mary Queen of Scots debuts this evening at the fest. By this time next week, I’ll have a much better idea as to its prospects.
Both Supporting categories experienced a change. I’ve moved Sam Rockwell (Vice) back in the top 5 with Adam Driver out. I’ve also put Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) in the predicted nominees with Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) out.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 3)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. First Man (PR: 7)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Widows (PR: 10)
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
12. Boy Erased (PR: 15)
13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 14)
14. The Mule (PR: 13)
15. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
On the Basis of Sex
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 4)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)
9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 2)
3. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 3)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)
5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)
7. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)
10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)
8. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
9. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
10. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)
4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)
5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 10)
10. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 3)
4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 5)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 9)
10. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Widows (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Man (PR: 6)
7. Boy Erased (PR: 8)
8. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
9. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
10. Black Panther (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 3)
2. Green Book (PR: 1)
3. Roma (PR: 2)
4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)
5. Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Reformed (PR: 7)
7. Private Life (PR: Not Ranked)
8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 7)
10. The Mule (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
On the Basis of Sex
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Girl (PR: 4)
5. Capernaum (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Burning (PR: 6)
7. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)
8. Never Look Away (PR: 7)
9. The Guilty (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Border (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Dogman
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)
4. Mirai (PR: 4)
5. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Smallfoot (PR: 7)
7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 6)
8. Early Man (PR: 5)
9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)
10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Grinch
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 3)
2. Free Solo (PR: 1)
3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
4. RBG (PR: 4)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amazing Grace (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dark Money (PR: 7)
8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)
9. Jane Fonda in Five Acts (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Quincy (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Science Fair
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Best Film Editing
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
5. Vice (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 8)
7. Widows (PR: 6)
8. The Favourite (PR: 5)
9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)
10. Green Book (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)
4. The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 7)
7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)
8. Widows (PR: 6)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Cold War (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Green Book
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. First Man (PR: 4)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
7. Roma (PR: 9)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 7)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 8)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colette (PR: 5)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
8. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)
10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
A Star Is Born
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther (PR: 2)
2. The Favourite (PR: 1)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)
5. Vice (PR: 4)
6. Colette (PR: 7)
7. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 8)
8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
10. Vox Lux (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Suspiria
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)
5. Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)
7. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)
9. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Avengers: Infinity War
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)
4. Black Panther (PR: 3)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)
7. Roma (PR: 6)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
9. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Avengers: Infinity War
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
4. Black Panther (PR: 4)
5. Annihilation (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
7. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
9. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 7)
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Best Original Score
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 5)
7. Green Book (PR: 10)
8. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 9)
9. Roma (PR: 7)
10. Colette (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Suspiria
Best Original Song
1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
3. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)
4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 9)
5. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)
7. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 5)
8. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
9. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
10. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud (PR: 8)
And that provides the following breakdown of nominations for each picture:
12 Nominations
A Star Is Born
9 Nominations
First Man, The Favourite
8 Nominations
Black Panther, Roma
6 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice
5 Nominations
Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns
4 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Mary Queen of Scots
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, RBG
1 Nomination
Annihilation, At Eternity’s Gate, Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Boy Erased, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Ready Player One, Widows, The Wife, Cold War, Shoplifters, Girl, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Free Solo, Three Identical Strangers, Minding the Gap.
My weekly Oscar predictions have arrived once again! Some important developments from last week to this one:
Green Book rises and First Man falls. While I still have the latter receiving a Picture nomination, I’ve put in Peter Farrelly (Green Book) over Man maker Damien Chazelle in Director. In Best Actor, Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) gets the nod over Ryan Gosling’s work. In Adapted Screenplay, it’s Widows in and First Man out. With Green Book, it now rises to the #1 spot in Original Screenplay over Roma.
The AFI Fest premieres tonight with the world debut of On the Basis of Sex. We’ll have a lot more info on its Oscar viability in just hours. The same festival will bring us the first screening and buzz for Mary Queen of Scots next week.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 5)
4. The Favourite (PR: 3)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
7. First Man (PR: 6)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Widows (PR: 12)
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
12. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 14)
13. The Mule (PR: 13)
14. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 11)
15. Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mary Queen of Scots
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 5)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
3. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)
5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 5)
7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 6)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
10. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)
9. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Robert Forster, What They Had
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)
4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
9. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 6)
10. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Widows (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Man (PR: 5)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
8. Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Hate U Give (PR: 8)
10. Black Panther (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Leave No Trace
Best Original Screenplay
1. Green Book (PR: 3)
2. Roma (PR: 1)
3. The Favourite (PR: 2)
4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)
5. Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 6)
7. First Reformed (PR: 7)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
9. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)
10. The Mule (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Girl (PR: 4)
5. Capernaum (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Burning (PR: 6)
7. Never Look Away (PR: 9)
8. Border (PR: 10)
9. Birds of Passage (PR: 7)
10. Dogman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Guility
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)
4. Mirai (PR: 4)
5. Early Man (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 5)
7. Smallfoot (PR: 10)
8. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Grinch (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Night is Short, Walk on Girl
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
Best Documentary Feature
1. Free Solo (PR: 1)
2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
3. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 3)
4. RBG (PR: 4)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)
7. Dark Money (PR: 7)
8. Science Fair (PR: 5)
9. Quincy (PR: 10)
10. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Price of Everything
Best Film Editing
1. Roma (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 3)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 6)
7. Vice (PR: 5)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)
10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
July 22
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
4. The Favourite (PR: 6)
5. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 9)
7. Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Cold War (PR: 5)
9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Mary Queen of Scots
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
4. First Man (PR: 3)
5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)
8. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Roma (PR: 7)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Colette
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
5. Colette (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 8)
10. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
A Wrinkle in Time
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. The Favourite (PR: 3)
2. Black Panther (PR: 1)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
4. Vice (PR: 5)
5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
7. Colette (PR: 9)
8. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 10)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
10. Suspiria (PR: 8)
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
5. Roma (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)
7. Incredibles 2 (PR: 5)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
9. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 7)
10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Annihilation
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. Black Panther (PR: 4)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
5. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Roma (PR: 7)
7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
9. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ready Player One
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 4)
4. Black Panther (PR: 3)
5. Annihilation (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
7. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 8)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
9. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ant-Man and the Wasp
Best Original Score
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
5. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Roma (PR: 4)
8. Suspiria (PR: 9)
9. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 10)
10. Green Book (PR: 5)
Dropped Out:
Incredibles 2
Colette
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. “The Places Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
8. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud (PR: 10)
9. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 9)
10. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 6)
And that breaks down the following number of nominations for each film:
12 Nominations
A Star Is Born
11 Nominations
The Favourite
9 Nominations
First Man
8 Nominations
Black Panther, Roma
6 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
5 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Green Book
4 Nominations
Mary Queen of Scots, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Poppins Returns
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, Bohemian Rhapsody, Widows
1 Nomination
At Eternity’s Gate, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Eighth Grade, Colette, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Annihilation, The Hate U Give, Cold War, Shoplifters, Girl, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Early Man, Free Solo, Three Identical Strangers, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, RBG, Minding the Gap
My look back at the major Oscar categories from 1990 to the present arrives at Best Actor today! If you missed my posts covering Actress and the Supporting races, you can find them here:
As with those previous entries, I am picking the three least surprising winners of the last 28 years, along with the three biggest upsets. Additionally, you’ll see my personal picks for strongest and weakest fields overall.
As a primer, here are the winners from 1990 to now:
1990 – Jeremy Irons, ReversalofFortune
1991 – Anthony Hopkins, TheSilenceoftheLambs
1992 – Al Pacino, ScentofaWoman
1993 – Tom Hanks, Philadelphia
1994 – Tom Hanks, ForrestGump
1995 – Nicolas Cage, LeavingLasVegas
1996 – Geoffrey Rush, Shine
1997 – Jack Nicholson, AsGoodAsItGets
1998 – Roberto Benigni, LifeisBeautiful
1999 – Kevin Spacey, AmericanBeauty
2000 – Russell Crowe, Gladiator
2001 – Denzel Washington, TrainingDay
2002 – Adrien Brody, ThePianist
2003 – Sean Penn, MysticRiver
2004 – Jamie Foxx, Ray
2005 – Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
2006 – Forest Whitaker, TheLastKingofScotland
2007 – Daniel Day-Lewis, ThereWillBeBlood
2008 – Sean Penn, Milk
2009 – Jeff Bridges, CrazyHeart
2010 – Colin Firth, TheKing’sSpeech
2011 – Jean Dujardin, TheArtist
2012 – Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
2013 – Matthew McConaughey, DallasBuyersClub
2014 – Eddie Redmayne, TheTheoryofEverything
2015 – Leonardo DiCaprio, TheRevenant
2016 – Casey Affleck, ManchesterbytheSea
2017 – Gary Oldman, DarkestHour
Let’s begin with the three that I’m deeming as the non-surprise winners. Whittling this down to that number was a challenge. The double wins by Hanks and Penn and even last year’s winner Oldman could’ve easily been named here, too. Here goes…
3. Al Pacino, ScentofaWoman
The legendary thespian was 0 for 6 when it came to nominations and wins entering 1992. He picked up his 7th and 8th nods that year with his supporting role in GlengarryGlenRoss and lead role as a blind former colonel in this Martin Brest directed drama. By Oscar night, it was clear he was finally going to make that trip to the podium.
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, TheRevenant
Like Pacino, DiCaprio had been an Academy bridesmaid before… four times. His fifth nod for TheRevenant guaranteed he’d finally be a winner against weak competition (more on that below).
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
I could have named the Method actor’s victory in 2007 for ThereWillBeBlood as well, but his win five years later as the nation’s 16th President edges it out. From the moment the Steven Spielberg project was announced, Day-Lewis was the odds on favorite and it never changed.
Now – my selections for the upsets:
3. Anthony Hopkins, TheSilenceoftheLambs
While it might seem an obvious win nearly 30 years later, Nick Nolte’s work in ThePrinceofTides had nabbed him the Golden Globe. Additionally, there was some controversy about Sir Anthony’s inclusion in the lead race due to his approximate 16 minutes of screen time. This is truly evidence of a performance so towering that it couldn’t be ignored.
2. Roberto Benigni, LifeisBeautiful
The Italian director/writer/actor was an underdog against competition that included Nick Nolte (once again) for Affliction and Ian McKellen in GodsandMonsters. Mr. Benigni seemed a bit shocked himself when his name was called, as he famously bounded exuberantly to the stage.
1. Adrien Brody, ThePianist
The smart money in 2002 was with Jack Nicholson in AboutSchmidt or Daniel Day-Lewis in GangsofNewYork. Brody’s win was pretty shocking, as was the giant smooch he planted on presenter Halle Berry.
When it comes to overall fields, I’m going recent history with both. For strongest, I’ll give it to 2012. That’s the year Day-Lewis won for Lincoln. All other nominees were rock solid as well with Bradley Cooper (SilverLiningsPlaybook), Hugh Jackman (LesMiserables), Joaquin Phoenix (TheMaster), and Denzel Washington (Flight).
For weakest, I’m picking 2015. This is the aforementioned year of DiCaprio’s overdue win. The rest of the field, however, was a bit lacking. It consisted of Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Matt Damon (TheMartian), Michael Fassbender (SteveJobs), and Eddie Redmayne (TheDanishGirl).
And there’s your Actor look back, folks! Keep an eye out for Best Picture soon as the final post in this series…
My first Oscar predictions in the month of November come with reductions and expansions. I am slimming the list of 25 Best Picture possibilities to 15 and the other major categories from 15 to 10. As you can see, I am also including all of the other feature-length races for the first time from Documentary to Animated Feature to Foreign Language Feature and the techs.
So what are the developments worth discussing? Well…
In these initial projections for all races, A Star Is Born and First Man tie for most nominations with 12 apiece. Truth be told, I’m skeptical that First Man will get there. Its poor box office performance could hinder its possibilities in some races. While I’m relatively confident it will score multiples nods in the technical categories, both director Damien Chazelle and star Ryan Gosling are questionable, even though I currently have them both getting honored.
In Best Picture, BlacKkKlansman rises from 6th to 4th in the list of predicted nominees. It’s a good week in general for the Spike Lee pic as I’m including Adam Driver for the first time in the list of predicted Supporting Actor nominees, replacing Sam Rockwell in Vice.
We got a surprise announcement this week as Kenneth Branagh’s All Is True will open in late December for a qualifying run. The director stars as William Shakespeare in the late stages of his life with a supporting cast including Judi Dench and Ian McKellen. I will likely wait for some buzz before possibly listing it as a predicted nominee. In addition to Picture, Director, acting slots, and screenplay – it has the potential in down the line races such as Costume Design and Production Design. It will certainly be one to keep an eye on.
For Foreign Language Feature, Roma is tops in my first predictions while it maintains its #2 spot in Best Picture. Pixar finds itself in familiar territory with Incredibles 2 leading Animated Feature. In what should be a competitive Documentary Feature race, Free Solo starts out at #1 with Three Identical Strangers close behind.
And with that, here’s what November brings as far as Oscar predictions!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
5. Green Book (PR: 4)
6. First Man (PR: 5)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
11. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 13)
12. Widows (PR: 10)
13. The Mule (PR: 12)
14. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 15)
15. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
A Quiet Place
Eighth Grade
Boy Erased
Leave No Trace
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Mary Poppins Returns
The Hate U Give
Cold War
Ben Is Back
Hereditary
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)
5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)
9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Steve McQueen, Widows
Clint Eastwood, The Mule
Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots
John Krasinski, A Quiet Place
Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)
5. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
7. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 7)
9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
10. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 10)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 7)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Kindergarten Teacher
Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
4. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 14)
10. Robert Forster, What They Had (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Vice
Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex
Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 3)
5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 7)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 6)
8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Rachel McAdams, Disobedience
Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun
Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex
Dianne Wiest, The Mule
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 7)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)
8. The Hate U Give (PR: 11)
9. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)
10. Black Panther (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Mary Queen of Scots
Boy Erased
Disobedience
The Sisters Brothers
The Wife
Best Original Screenplay
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)
5. Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
7. First Reformed (PR: 6)
8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 7)
10. The Mule (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ben Is Back
Private Life
Hereditary
Stan and Ollie
Sorry to Bother You
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Shoplifters
4. Girl
5. Capernaum
Other Possibilities:
6. Burning
7. Birds of Passage
8. The Guilty
9. Never Look Away
10. Border
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet
4. Mirai
5. Ruben Brandt, Collector
Other Possibilities:
6. Lu Over the Wall
7. Early Man
8. Night is Short, Walk on Girl
9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
10. Smallfoot
Best Documentary Feature
1. Free Solo
2. Three Identical Strangers
3. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
4. RBG
5. Science Fair
Other Possibilities:
6. Minding the Gap
7. Dark Money
8. Crime + Punishment
9. The Price of Everything
10. Quincy
Best Film Editing
1. A Star Is Born
2. Roma
3. First Man
4. The Favourite
5. Vice
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows
7. If Beale Street Could Talk
8. Black Panther
9. BlacKkKlansman
10. July 22
Best Cinematography
1. Roma
2. First Man
3. A Star Is Born
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Cold War
Other Possibilities:
6. The Favourite
7. Black Panther
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
9. Widows
10. Mary Queen of Scots
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. First Man
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Mary Queen of Scots
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born
7. Roma
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
9. Colette
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Queen of Scots
4. Colette
5. Mary Poppins Returns
Other Possibilities:
6. Crazy Rich Asians
7. A Star Is Born
8. If Beale Street Could Talk
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
10. A Wrinkle in Time
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther
2. Mary Queen of Scots
3. The Favourite
Other Possibilities:
4. Stan and Ollie
5. Vice
6. Mary Poppins Returns
7. A Star Is Born
8. Suspiria
9. Colette
10. A Wrinkle in Time
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. A Quiet Place
4. A Star Is Born
5. Incredibles 2
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
7. Avengers: Infinity War
8. Roma
9. Mary Poppins Returns
10. Annihilation
Best Sound Mixing
1. First Man
2. A Star Is Born
3. A Quiet Place
4. Black Panther
5. Mary Poppins Returns
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. Roma
8. Incredibles 2
9. Avengers: Infinity War
10. Ready Player One
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Black Panther
4. Ready Player One
5. Annihilation
Other Possibilities
6. Mary Poppins Returns
7. A Quiet Place
8. A Wrinkle in Time
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
10. Ant-Man and the Wasp
Best Original Score
1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. Roma
5. Green Book
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Queen of Scots
7. Incredibles 2
8. Colette
9. Suspiria
10. The Sisters Brothers
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther
3. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born
4. “The Place Where Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns
5. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give
Other Possibilities:
6. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex
7. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born
8. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns
9. “I’ll Fight” from RBG
10. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud
And that breaks down to the following number of nominations for each feature:
12 Nominations
A Star Is Born, First Man
10 Nominations
The Favourite
8 Nominations
Black Panther, Roma
5 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots, Mary Poppins Returns
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, Cold War, Incredibles 2
1 Nomination
Annihilation, At Eternity’s Gate, Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Colette, Eighth Grade, Ready Player One, The Hate U Give, The Wife, Capernaum, Free Solo, Girl, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, RBG, Ruben Brandt, Collector, Science Fair. Shoplifters, Three Identical Strangers, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
We have reached my last weekly Oscar predictions posts in the major categories for the month of October. Next week, we will see some big changes in my estimates! For starters, the listing of Best Picture possibilities will be whittled from 25 to 15. All other categories will be slimmed down from 15 possible nominees to just 10. Additionally, beginning next Thursday, I will be listing all races dealing with feature-length films. That means all tech races, Documentary Feature, Foreign Language Film, and Animated Feature are coming your way for the first time next week.
In the meantime, here’s some developments from last week to this one:
Bohemian Rhapsody, Beautiful Boy, and The Front Runner all fall out the top 25, making room at the bottom of the list for Cold War, Ben Is Back, and Hereditary. My nine predicted Best Picture nominees remain the same. A Quiet Place and Eighth Grade move to their highest rankings yet in 16th and 17th.
In Best Director, John Krasinski has his debut on the listings at #14 for A Quiet Place. The Coen Brothers work in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs falls out.
The mediocre critical reaction for BohemianRhapsody has me greatly questioning whether Rami Malek makes it in Best Actor after all. He drops from 4th to 6th with Willem Dafoe (AtEternity’sGate) now back in the fold.
John C. Reilly returns at #15 for his role in Stan & Ollie in Best Actor, knocking out Lucas Hedges for Boy Erased.
The continued switching between Lady Gaga (AStarIsBorn) and Glenn Close (TheWife) goes on with the latter reclaiming the top spot.
Maggie Gyllenhaal makes her first appearance at #13 in Actress for her role as The Kindergarten Teacher, replacing Carey Mulligan (Wildlife).
Mahershala Ali is back at #1 in Supporting Actor over Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), who falls to third behind Sam Elliot (A Star Is Born). Robert Forster (What They Had) also notches his highest chart placement at #9.
Emma Stone (The Favourite) and Claire Foy (First Man) switch the 2-3 spots in Supporting Actress, with Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) remaining #1.
First Man is back in the top 5 for Adapted Screenplay over Widows.
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Green Book (PR: 4)
5. First Man (PR: 5)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Widows (PR: 11)
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
12. The Mule (PR: 12)
13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 13)
14. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
15. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 15)
16. A Quiet Place (PR: 24)
17. Eighth Grade (PR: 20)
18. Boy Erased (PR: 16)
19. Leave No Trace (PR: 19)
20. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 17)
21. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 18)
22. The Hate U Give (PR: 23)
23. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Hereditary (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bohemian Rhapsody
Beautiful Boy
The Front Runner
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
11. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 11)
12. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 12)
13. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)
14. John Krasinski, A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 5)
5. Willem Dafoe, AtEternity’sGate (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rami Malek, BohemianRhapsody(PR: 4)
7. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 9)
8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)
9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 10)
10. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 8)
11. Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back (PR: 12)
12. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 11)
13. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: 13)
14. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 14)
15. John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, TheWife (PR: 2)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
8. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
10. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 10)
11. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 12)
12. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 11)
13. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Kindergarten Teacher (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 13)
15. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Carey Mulligan, Wildlife
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 2)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)
4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)
9. Robert Forster, What They Had (PR: 14)
10. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)
11. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 11)
12. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 10)
13. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 12)
14. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 13)
15. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 15)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
Back at it again with my weekly Thursday predictions in the major categories for this year’s Oscars! Here’s some tidbits about developments over the past week:
Damien Chazelle’s First Man experienced a lackluster liftoff at the box office this past weekend with just $16 million (about $5 million or so below expectations). Will this alter its course for numerous nominations? Short answer: probably not. However, I do have it dropping spots in Picture, Director, and Actor while still predicting nods for all three. Claire Foy remains at #2 behind Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) for Supporting Actress.
Speaking of that category, it will finally confirmed this week regarding placement of performers for The Favourite. Olivia Colman will compete in lead Actress with Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz in Supporting. As I have projected for weeks, I think that bodes well for all three actresses in garnering nods.
Beautiful Boy performed very well in limited release last week and I have vaulted Timothee Chalamet back to the #1 spot in the fluid Supporting Actor race.
And with that – here’s where I think Oscar standings are at this moment in time…
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 4)
4. Green Book (PR: 5)
5. First Man (PR: 3)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
11. Widows (PR: 10)
12. The Mule (PR: 12)
13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 15)
14. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 16)
15. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 17)
16. Boy Erased (PR: 14)
17. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 13)
18. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 18)
19. Leave No Trace (PR: 19)
20. Eighth Grade (PR: 22)
21. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 25)
22. Beautiful Boy (PR: 23)
23. The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)
24. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Front Runner (PR: 24)
Dropped Out:
At Eternity’s Gate
The Sisters Brothers
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)
4. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 3)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 10)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
11. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 13)
12. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 12)
13. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
14. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
15. Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)
5. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)
7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)
8. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 9)
9. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
10. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 11)
11. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 10)
12. Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: 15)
14. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 14)
15. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
8. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
10. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 11)
11. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 12)
12. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 10)
13. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 14)
14. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife (PR: 13)
15. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Keira Knightley, Colette
Best Supporting Actor
1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
8. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)
10. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 12)
11. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
12. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 11)
13. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Robert Forster, What They Had (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk
Bradley Cooper, The Mule
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
Back at ya with my weekly Oscar predictions! Here’s some tidbits that have transpired over the past seven days:
While the official review embargo has not lifted, Bohemian Rhapsody has screened and early word-of-mouth is out. Reaction for this film itself seems mixed and it has caused the Freddie Mercury biopic to drop to 25th in my BP rankings and out of my Original Screenplay possibilities. On the other hand, chatter about Rami Malek’s performance is terrific. For the first time, he enters my top 5 predicted Actor nominees, knocking out Willem Dafoe’s work in At Eternity’s Gate. One thing seems certain: the lead actor race is looking very crowded at the moment.
Speaking of that category, it was confirmed that Stephan James from If Beale Street Could Talk will be campaigned for in that category (I’ve had him listed in Supporting previously).
In Best Actress, I have switched Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) back to #1 over runner-up Glenn Close in The Wife. This appears to be a close contest between the two at the moment.
There is still uncertainty about category placement for the three women of The Favourite. Some chatter has Emma Stone as the obvious Actress candidate along with Olivia Colman. Everyone seems to agree that Rachel Weisz will land in Supporting Actress. For now, I’m keeping Colman in Actress with Stone/Weisz in Supporting, but changes could happen.
Also in Supporting Actress, I am now listing Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) at #1 over Claire Foy (First Man).
Widows is just on the outside of my predicted nominees in a number of races including Picture, Actress (Viola Davis), and Supporting Actor (Daniel Kaluuya). I feel it will get nominated for something and I am including it in Adapted Screenplay over First Man.
And with that, let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. First Man (PR: 3)
4. The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Green Book (PR: 5)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Widows (PR: 11)
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
12. The Mule (PR: 15)
13. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 16)
14. Boy Erased (PR: 12)
15. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 14)
16. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)
17. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 17)
18. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 19)
19. Leave No Trace (PR: 23)
20. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 20)
21. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 21)
22. Eighth Grade (PR: 25)
23. Beautiful Boy (PR: 22)
24. The Front Runner (PR: 24)
25. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 18)
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 3)
4. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
9. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 14)
10. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)
11. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
12. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 13)
13. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 11)
14. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 12)
15. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 15)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 5)
4. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 3)
7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
9. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 11)
10. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 10)
11. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 14)
12. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)
13. Stephan James, IfBealeStreetCouldTalk (PR: Not Ranked)
14. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 13)
15. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 15)
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 8)
8. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 11)
10. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 10)
11. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 9)
12. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 13)
13. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife (PR: 14)
14. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 15)
15. Keira Knightley, Colette (PR: 12)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)
4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)
10. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 13)
11. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
12. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 12)
13. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Brian Tyree Henry, IfBealeStreetCouldTalk (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Bradley Cooper, The Mule (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie
Jason Clarke, First Man
David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
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