Na Hong-jin’s South Korean action sci-fi spectacle Hope looks to post impressive domestic grosses when it debuts September 9th. Reportedly the widest stateside release from its nation since 2019’s Parasite, the film originally premiered at Cannes before hitting South Korean venues in July. Hwang Jung-min, Zo In-sung, and Hoyean lead the cast along with Taylor Russell, Cameron Britton, Alicia Vikander, and Michael Fassbender.
Hope drew passionate reactions at Cannes with many reviews lauding the filmmaker’s directorial flourishes while being more critical of other aspects. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with a 68 Metacritic. Neon is handling North American distribution. With a Wednesday start, I could see its grosses being front-loaded and I think the five-day could approach low double digits or even low teens.
Hope opening weekend prediction: $7.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $12.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
It’s been over three weeks since I’ve updated my Oscar predictions in the six major categories of Picture, Director, and the four acting races. A little thing called the Cannes Film Festival happened in between. In the past few cycles, you can usually count on 2-3 films screened in the French Riviera to eventually make the Best Picture cut at the Academy Awards.
Some features like Na Hong-jin’s Hope and James Gray’s Paper Tiger saw their fortunes take a hit. I would say there are four titles that standing the best chance at finding themselves in the Oscar mix: Cristian Mingiu’s Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or), Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Fatherland from Pawel Pawlkowski, and especially The Black Ball from Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the those Cannes titles and more on the blog from the past few days. There’s others that could gain momentum including Minotaur, Coward, and Club Kid.
Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day didn’t screen at Cannes, but is readying release on June 12th. Influencers who’ve seen it are highly positive. That said, it is a wise practice to wait until the real review embargo lapses to get a clear picture of its awards viability. For now, I have the movie, Spielberg, and Emily Blunt just on the outside looking in.
The horror flick Obsession drew rave critical reactions and fantastic box office numbers that are continuing to grow. This has truly opened the door for Inde Navarrette to snag an acting nod and, in a best case scenario, BP inclusion (still seems like a long shot but you never know). It’s a legit question as to whether Navarrette competes in lead Actress or Supporting Actress. For now, I’m slotting her as a possibility (though not yet a nominee) in the former. Focus Features will clear it up as some point though it might be a while.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have the next update available in mid-June!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Fjord (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. No One Cares (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)
12. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Fatherland (PR: 7) (-6)
14. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+2)
15. A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Werwulf (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 25) (+8)
18. Jack of Spades (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Behemoth! (PR: 23) (+4)
20. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (+1)
21. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Michael (PR: 24) (+2)
23. Josephine (PR: 17) (-6)
24. Saturn Return (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hope
Paper Tiger
A Long Winter
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Javier Calva and Javier Ambrossi, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Na Hong-jin, Hope
James Gray, Paper Tiger
Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Raked)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Penélope Cruz, Bunker
Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 15) (+3)
13. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (-9)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning
Adam Driver, Paper Tiger
Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Adele, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down
Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter
Gemma Chan, Josephine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 15) (+8)
My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.
The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.
In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.
Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.
We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.
You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)
5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)
13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)
15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)
16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)
17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)
18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)
19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)
Taylor Swift will not be performing an Oscar nominated track at this April’s ceremony. Sonic the Hedgehog will not be the Oscar nominated Sonic the Hedgehog. Sacha Baron Cohen’s makeup team from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm who transformed him into former President Donald Trump will not see their work recognized.
These are some of the headlines from today’s unveiling of shortlists in six categories covering feature films from the Academy. On the positive side for its respective studios, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey could contend in at least three races. A documentary about refugees from Chechnya is a Visual Effects hopeful. And Borat is still on the board for his song “Wuhan Flu”. There were mixed results from the announcements for features such as Hillbilly Elegy, The Invisible Man, and The United States vs. Billie Holiday.
Let’s break this all down and what it means for my weekly predictions, shall we?
Best Documentary Feature
Fifteen films were shortlisted today as follows:
76 Days
All In: The Fight for Democracy
Boys State
Collective
Crip Camp
Dick Johnson Is Dead
Gunda
MLK/FBI
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Notturno
The Painter and the Thief
Time
The Truffle Hunters
Welcome to Chechnya
Analysis:
There are two docs I had in my top ten that missed the cut: The Dissident, which I had ranked all the way up in second and Totally Under Control, which I had sixth. This is a pretty open race in 2020 and I had Time in first position two days ago. All In and Dick Johnson are sturdy contenders as well.
Best International Feature Film
Fifteen films were shortlisted today as follows:
Another Round
Better Days
Charlatan
Collective
Dear Comrades!
Hope
I’m No Longer Here
La Llorona
The Man Who Sold His Skin
The Mole Agent
Night of the Kings
Quo Vadis, Aida?
A Sun
Sun Children
Two of Us
Analysis:
My only top ten hopeful falling out was my #10 Notturno (which made the Documentary list). No real surprises with Another Round as a soft frontrunner to win.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Ten films were shortlisted as follows:
Birds of Prey
Emma
The Glorias
Hillbilly Elegy
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
The Little Things
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
One Night in Miami
Pinocchio
Analysis:
Two of my predicted nominees from my last round had their possibilities cease today: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and The United States vs. Billie Holiday (ranked fourth and fifth respectively). Also dropped: The Trial of the Chicago 7 (#7), News of the World (#8), and Mulan (#9). Ma Rainey will probably remain in my #1 spot with Hillbilly and Mank following.
Best Original Score
Fifteen films were shortlisted as follows:
Ammonite
Blizzard of Souls
Da 5 Bloods
The Invisible Man
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
The Life Ahead
The Little Things
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Minari
Mulan
News of the World
Soul
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis:
My #6 entry Hillbilly Elegy was a rather notable miss here while my other nine entries are still in the mix. This race could come down to Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor competing against themselves with Soul and Mank.
Best Original Song
Fifteen films were shortlisted as follows:
“Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy
“See What You’ve Done” from Belly of the Beast
“Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
“Never Break” from Giving Voice
“Make It Work” from Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
“Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah
“Seen” from The Life Ahead
“Rain Song” from Minari
“Show Me Your Soul” from Mr. Soul!
“Loyal Brave True” from Mulan
“Free” from The One and Only Ivan
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
“Green” from Sound of Metal
“Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis:
As mentioned, no Taylor Swift for her track “Only the Young” from Miss Americana. Yet a larger omission was “Over the Moon” from the animated Rocket to the Moon, which I had ranked at #4. Another to miss the cut: “Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holiday, which achieved a Golden Globes nod. “Speak Now” might have an edge, but I wouldn’t count out “Seen”.
Best Visual Effects
Ten films were shortlisted as follows:
Birds of Prey
Bloodshot
Love and Monsters
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Soul
Tenet
Welcome to Chechnya
Analysis:
Some genuine shockers in VE with my #3 The Invisible Man and #4 Greyhound out of contention. Also missing: Wonder Woman 1984 (#7), Sonic the Hedgehog (#8), and The Call of the Wild (#10). In their places are pics I didn’t have on my radar like Bloodshot and Love and Monsters (the Chechnya nod was at least spoken of in recent days). Soul getting in certainly gives it a solid shot at inclusion, but Tenet and The Midnight Sky still appear to be the heavyweights.
Today’s news will certainly alter what you see when I update my estimates this weekend! Stay tuned…
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