Sense and Sensibility Box Office Prediction

Georgia Oakley’s Sense and Sensibility is the latest update to Jane Austen’s 215-year-old novel and it arrives stateside on October 16th. The director’s follow-up to the acclaimed British debut Blue Jean, Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles lead the cast with supporting turns from Caitriona Balfe, Frank Dillane, Herbert Nordrum, George MacKay, and Fiona Shaw.

The romantic drama is the first major retelling of the source material since Ang Lee’s rendering in 1995 with Emma Thompson and Kate Winslet. It was an awards hit with seven Oscar noms including Best Picture. The box office was strong with just over $40 million domestically and $135 million worldwide.

While reviews are respectful for Oakley’s take, they’re not as glowing as what preceded it three decades ago. Rotten Tomatoes is at 78% with 72 on Metacritic. This is not expected to be a significant Oscar player and that could have assisted with increased word-of-mouth.

I imagine the most dedicated Austen faithful will turn up and that could mean mid single digits.

Sense and Sensibility opening weekend prediction: $6.1 million

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Oscar Predictions: Sense and Sensibility

In 1995, Ang Lee’s take on Jane Austen’s early 19th-century novel Sense and Sensibility picked up seven Oscar nominations including Best Picture, Actress (Emma Thompson), and Supporting Actress (Kate Winslet). It would win Adapted Screenplay for Emma Thompson’s treatment of the source material.

Over two decades later, Georgia Oakley (director of 2022’s acclaimed Blue Jean) is making her version with Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles playing the respective roles that Thompson and Winslet were up for. Costars include Caitriona Balfe, Frank Dillane, Herbert Nordrum, George MacKay, and Fiona Shaw. It hits U.K. venues this Friday with the U.S. premiere on October 16th.

Reviews are calling this a mostly successful retelling of Austen’s work with 82% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 73 Metacritic. The general consensus seems to be that it doesn’t match what Lee and Thompson accomplished. However, if the box office is strong, I could see it at least being a possibility in the same major races as 1995’s Sense. This includes Edgar-Jones in lead Actress though I feel Creed-Miles has a better chance in Supporting Actress (which is a bit of a head scratcher competition at the moment).

Tech categories such as Costume Design and Production Design are more likely and it’s entirely possible that this version only pops up there. The score is also getting some shoutouts. My sense at the moment is putting it in BP seems like a bit of a reach. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…