Tag: Havana Rose Liu

Oscar Predictions: The Debut

Musical comedy The Debut is Jesse Eisenberg’s follow-up to 2024’s A Real Pain which was nominated for Best Original Screenplay and earned Kieran Culkin a Best Supporting Actor victory. It probably came awfully close to a Best Picture spot. Based on its Telluride premiere before its December 11th stateside release, The Debut‘s Oscar haul should be more substantial. Julianne Moore stars as a bored New Jersey housewife cast in a community theater production with Paul Giamatti as her challenging director. The supporting cast includes Eisenberg, Halle Bailey, Havana Rose Liu, and Bernadette Peters.

Distributed by A24 (who will have a busy season with The Invite and Primetime as well), early WOM is electric. Metacritic stands at 90 while the 8 RT write-ups are all fresh. Don’t be surprised if this is the studio’s most viable contender in several races. This is also the type of subject matter that should hold major appeal to the Academy.

That is especially true in Actress and Supporting Actor. Before the Telluride bow, I had Moore and Giamatti listed 1st in their respective derbies. Frankly, I felt more confident about Giamatti’s placement. There is an overdue factor with the veteran actor and this seemed like a perfect vehicle for recognition. He was likely close to win status in supporting for 2005’s Cinderella Man and lead for 2023’s The Holdovers. He could certainly maintain his pole position status in my next update.

Yet it’s Moore who is generating career best notices. She is going for her sixth nom from the Academy. After being up in supporting for 1997’s Boogie Nights, lead for The End of the Affair (1999) and Far from Heaven (2002), and supporting for 2002’s The Hours, Moore was a Best Actress winner for Still Alice in 2014. I basically had her as a placeholder in lead for The Debut, but Telluride buzz has shown her as a huge threat to make a second trip to the podium a few months down the line.

Eisenberg appears poised for another Original Screenplay shot while his inclusion in Best Director is more of a question mark. I do feel The Debut‘s reaction sets it up for a Best Picture slot. Editing, Casting, Original Score, and Original Song are also on the table. A24 is expected to tout a track titled “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” sung by Moore and Peters. Eisenberg, Moore, and Giamatti are going to be busy on the awards circuit for the 99th ceremony and my Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Her Private Hell

Danish auteur Nicolas Winding Refn generated critical acclaim early in his career for the Pusher trilogy, Bronson, and stateside breakthrough Drive with Ryan Gosling in 2011. His footprint with Academy voters, however, is limited to Drive‘s lone Sound Editing nom. The filmmaker’s follow-ups Only God Forgives and The Neon Demon received mixed to negative reactions.

His latest is Her Private Hell and it’s out this weekend in limited engagements. The sci-fi thriller stars Sophie Thatcher and Charles Melton with a supporting cast including Havana Rose Liu, Kristine Froseth, Shioli Kutsana, Aoi Yamada, Dougray Scott, Diego Calva, and Hidetoshi Nishijima.

Hell was met with far from a heavenly reception when it premiered at Cannes. With 48% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 44 Metacritic, it represents the weakest overall numbers for Refn. Any hopes of being an awards contender in any fashion evaporated immediately. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Tuner

Daniel Roher’s 2022 documentary Navalny made waves with Oscar voters by winning the top prize for its genre. The filmmaker ventures into fictional storytelling with the crime thriller Tuner this weekend. Leo Woodall stars as a piano tuner whose skillset brings him into the world of safecracking. Costars include Havana Rose Liu, Lior Raz, Tovah Feldshuh, Jean Reno, and Dustin Hoffman. Out in limited fashion this weekend, Tuner was first screened last fall at the Telluride and Toronto fests.

With 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 69 Metacritic, critics are kind to the caper. This doesn’t seem like an awards contender, but an exception could be made if Black Bear Pictures mounts an effective campaign in Best Sound. It’s a major part of the plot and the Academy could reward the sonic design. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Power Ballad

Power Ballad is the latest musical dramedy in the genre that Irish filmmaker John Carney specializes in. Slated for a June 5th stateside bow, the Lionsgate release features Paul Rudd as a wedding singer who scores an unexpected hit via a fading boy band star (Nick Jonas). The supporting cast includes Peter McDonald, Marcella Plunkett, Haley Rose Liu, and Jack Reynor. Months before the summer premiere, it has been screened this month at the Dublin International Film Festival and South by Southwest.

Carney is best known for 2007’s Once with follow-ups including Begin Again and Sing Street. It sounds like he might have another crowdpleaser on deck. Ballad has scored 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with 82% on Metacritic. Some reviews are calling it one of Rudd’s strongest performances.

While awards prospects are likely limited, both Once and Begin Again landed Original Song noms at the Oscars. The song at the center here is “How To Write a Song (Without You)” and it could be a track worth monitoring several months down the line. If Lionsgate puts up a decent campaign in Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes (where Sing Street vied for Best Motion Picture), both the movie and Rudd could contend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

AfrAId Box Office Prediction

Sony and Blumhouse are counting on horror fans to show up for AfrAId when it debuts over Labor Day weekend. From director Chris Weitz (whose varied filmography includes About a Boy, The Golden Compass, and The Twilight Saga: New Moon), the cast includes John Cho, Katherine Waterston, Havana Rose Liu, Lukita Maxwell, David Dastmalchian, and Keith Carradine.

At a brisk 84 minutes, the tale of an AI assistant gone rogue is Blumhouse’s latest hope for a genre breakout. They had a banner year in 2023 with M3GAN and Five Nights at Freddy’s. 2024 has been rougher with disappointments Night Swim and Imaginary.

AfrAId is unlikely to bring many real viewers in. For the extended holiday frame, it may struggle to reach double digits. I’ll say it does not.

AfrAId opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million (Friday to Monday projection)

For my Reagan prediction, click here:

Reagan Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Bottoms

After receiving kudos when it screened at South by Southwest in the spring, Emma Seligman’s Bottom raucous teen comedy Bottoms is up in limited release this weekend. It marks the director’s second feature after her acclaimed 2020 debut Shiva Baby, which made its way to a few critical best of lists. Rachel Sennott, who starred in Baby, headlines here. The supporting cast includes Ayo Edebiri, Havana Rose Liu, Kaia Gerber, Nicholas Galitzine, Dagmara Domińczyk, and former NFL star Marshawn Lynch.

As summer 2023 closes out at the box office, this is currently an unlikely winner for best Rotten Tomatoes score of the season at 99%. A number of reviews are calling it an instant classic of its genre.

For awards prospects, a best case scenario could be an Original Screenplay nod or some love in the Musical/Comedy Film competition at the Globes. Like other classics of its genre, a more likely scenario is no attention from voters of those branches as it seeks to achieve cult status. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…