Oscar Predictions: The Liberation

Israeli filmmaker Guy Nattiv is an Oscar winner for his 2018 short film Skin and he hopes to be back in the awards conversation with his feature-length drama The Liberation. It premiered at Telluride before its limited November release and wide January rollout via Bleecker Street.

Carrie Coon stars in the 1980s set tale of a woman lured into a cult. The supporting cast includes Bella Ramsey, Odessa Young, Lily James, and Coon’s real-life hubby Tracy Letts. Rotten Tomatoes is at 90% with a 73 on Metacritic.

Much of the critical praise is trained on Coon, who has picked up Critics Choice awards and Emmy nods for her TV work in The Leftovers, Fargo, The Gilded Age, and The White Lotus. She has yet to get the Academy’s attention. Her performance here could be that ticket, but I’m not confident Bleecker Street will mount the campaign necessary for that to occur. Coon will need a precursor or two to increase her visibility. If that happens, I wouldn’t discount her though I’ve yet to have her anywhere near my predicted five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Golda

Well ahead of its scheduled late August debut stateside, Golda was unveiled this week at the Berlin Film Festival. From Guy Nativ (whose 2018 short film Skin won the Academy Award in that category), the biopic casts four-time nominee and one time winner Helen Mirren as Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir. Costars include Camille Cottin, Ed Stoppard, and Liev Schreiber.

Mirren is, of course, no stranger to playing leaders of nations. For her work as Queen Elizabeth II in 2006’s The Queen, she was crowned Best Actress. The other nods are for Supporting Actress in 1995’s The Madness of King George and 2001’s Gosford Park and in lead for 2009’s The Last Station.

The handful of Golda reviews thus far are mixed and it holds just a 40% Rotten Tomatoes rating. That said, praise for Mirren is present. It is entirely possible that this is ignored altogether a few months down the road by awards voters.

Another potential path is one taken by 2021’s The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Despite its middling critical reaction, Chastain landed an Oscar nod and win. It also picked up a Makeup and Hairstyling victory. Golda is being heralded for its makeup work to make Mirren resemble the PM. Unlike Tammy, I don’t think this has a shot of winning either category. Nominations aren’t out of the question. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…