Guillermo del Toro’s previous three directorial efforts have either won Best Picture (2017’s The Shape of Water), been nominated for BP (2021’s Nightmare Alley), or won Best Animated Feature (Pinocchio). So it’s no surprise that his passion project – the filmmaker’s version of Frankenstein – is seen as a hopeful in numerous categories at the 98th Academy Awards. The two and a half hour gothic rendering of Mary Shelley’s novel has screened at Venice (with Toronto up next). It hits theaters October 17th in limited fashion before a Netflix streaming start on November 7th. Oscar Isaac is Dr. Frankenstein with Jacob Elordi as the Creature. Costars include Mia Goth, Christoph Waltz, Felix Kammerer, Lars Mikkelsen, David Bradley, Charles Dance, and Christian Convery.
Reaction from Italy could be described as respectful for what del Toro has accomplished without being overzealous in the praise. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with Metacritic at 73. That’s in the neighborhood of where Nightmare Alley was and Netflix could pull off a BP nod if their campaign is well executed. Of the cast, only Elordi (in supporting) seems like a potential threat for inclusion. I wouldn’t count on del Toro’s direction or adapted screenplay being honored.
Where Frankenstein is expected to pop up is tech derbies like Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling (a shoo-in), Production Design (same), Sound, Visual Effects, and Alexandre Desplat’s score. This may not nab the monster haul of all those categories, but it should definitely be noticed in some. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Of the 23 Best Animated Feature Oscar winners (the category didn’t start until 2001), Disney/Pixar has taken 11 of them. The Mouse Factory itself has picked up an additional four through their traditionally animated tales. One of the Pixar winners is 2015’s Inside Out and the sequel is out this weekend. Kelsey Mann makes his directorial debut with a voice cast including Amy Poehler, Phyllis Smith, Lewis Black, Tony Hale, Liza Lapira, Maya Hawke, Ayo Edebiri, Adéle Exarchopoulos, Paul Walter Hauser, Kensington Tallman, Diane Lane, and Kyle MacLachlan.
Due to Disney and Pixar’s aforementioned track record, it’s no surprise that Inside Out 2 was the frontrunner for gold sight unseen. With the review embargo lifted, is that still true? Probably, but it’s not a slam dunk.
Reviews are unsurprisingly positive with a 91% RT score. Some of the reaction has critics in their feels as they say it’s on par with the original that managed a 98% Fresh rating. Other write-ups, while mainly of the thumbs up variety, say it doesn’t match its predecessor.
Disney has lost the Academy’s animated prize for two years running. In 2022, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio defeated Turning Red. Last year, The Boy and the Heron flew by Elemental. If the Oscars were held today, Inside Out 2 would likely emerge victorious. However, the year is only half over and other contenders are hoping to challenge it in the months to come. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Orion and the Dark is streaming as of today on Netflix. Produced by DreamWorks Animation and marking the directorial debut of Sean Charmatz, the animated fantasy deals with themes of existentialism and fear. This is not too surprising considering the script comes from Charlie Kaufman, adapting Emma Yarlett’s children’s book. The voice cast includes Jacob Tremblay, Colin Hanks, Paul Walter Hauser, Angela Bassett, Ike Barinholtz, Natasia Demetriou, Nat Faxon, Carla Gugino, and Werner Herzog.
Kaufman is no stranger to the genre. He wrote and directed 2015’s Anomalisa. That critically acclaimed effort was up for Animated Feature at the Oscars, ultimately losing to Pixar’s Inside Out. Netflix knows how to get their animated material awards attention. Recent nominees include The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Sea Beast, the victorious Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, and Nimona.
Orion is getting a warm reception so far with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. We don’t know yet what this category’s landscape will look like several months down the road. However, I wouldn’t underestimate the chances for this to make it in. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It was indeed a slap free almost four hours of TV at the Oscars Sunday night. However, half of the Best Picture nominees were smacked down with zero victories: The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, The Fabelmans, Tár, and Triangle of Sadness.
There’s no doubt that Everything Everywhere All at Once was the massive winner of the proceedings, emerging victorious in seven of its 11 nods. It was also a loudly pleasing reception for All Quiet on the Western Front with a better than anticipated four trophies.
As for my numbers, I went 13 for 20. Over the past half decade, I’ve had far stronger showings in the odd numbered years than even numbered ones and my 2022 results were again on the lower end of the spectrum.
Everything took home the most above the line awards (6) of any picture in Academy history: Picture, Director (Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert), Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), and Original Screenplay (also the Daniels). It also won Film Editing. I correctly called all of those except for Supporting Actress where I went with Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin). This is the first pic in (get this!) 46 years to nab three of the four acting races. That’s since Network in 1976.
When Elvis lost to The Whale for Makeup and Hairstyling (which I got wrong), prognosticators across the Twitterverse and beyond knew that it could be a sign Brendan Fraser may take the gold over Austin Butler. And indeed that’s what happened – meaning I missed two of the four acting derbies. Let it be noted, by the way, that the Academy exactly matched SAG in those four competitions.
All Quiet grabbed International Feature Film and Cinematography as predicted. It additionally took Production Design (over my Babylon call) and Original Score (over my pick of The Fabelmans). I projected Quiet for Sound, but instead it marked the only victory for Top Gun: Maverick.
Animated Feature and Documentary Feature went, as anticipated, to Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio and Navalny. Song was “Naatu Naatu” from RRR and Avatar: The Way of Water in Visual Effects (correct picks) with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever in Costume Design over my Elvis pick.
And it was Sarah Polley in Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking. As far as the 95th Academy Awards, we’ll be talking about a historic night for one film in particular. It didn’t win everything, but it did so everywhere it was expected to and beyond. And it was also an evening filled with some genuinely heartfelt speeches and touching wins capped off by Indiana Jones embracing Short Round nearly 40 years later!
After nearly a year of speculation on the blog and the new podcast (look up Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite pod platform, folks!), the time has come to make my final picks for the winners at the 95th Academy Awards. The ceremony comes our way Sunday night with Jimmy Kimmel hosting and here’s hoping the presenters are given the correct envelopes and that no one gets slapped.
For some context, here’s how I did in the previous four Oscars (note that there were 21 races through 2019 because the sound competitions were divided into Editing and Mixing until their combination).
2018: 14/21
2019: 18/21
2020: 13/20
2021: 17/20
Note that I seem to do better in the odd numbered years. That could repeat for 2022 as three of the four acting derbies are highly tricky to pick and there are other down-the-line competitions that could go in different directions. As for Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Animated Feature, and International Feature Film… not so much.
Let’s go through them one by one and I’ll give you my winner and runner-up projection!
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
The tricky part isn’t picking the victor. It’s picking the runner-up. That’s because Everything has taken, well, nearly everything. PGA. DGA. WGA. SAG Ensemble. Critics Choice.
OK, so All Quiet received the BAFTA and The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin were your respective Drama and Musical/Comedy recipients at the Golden Globes. Yet the momentum has been with Everything for some time and it is the easy pick for the biggest prize of the night.
Given that a screenplay and acting statue are legitimately in play, Banshees has the strongest argument for a package of trophies that could include BP. It’s a distant runner-up.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Director
Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
I suppose the voters could go the Globe route and bestow their honor on the legendary Spielberg. Doubtful. Look for the Academy to match the DGA and Critics Choice selections of Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert.
Predicted Winner: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Runner-Up: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett (Tár), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Now it gets tough. Blanchett’s towering work could be undeniable as it was to BAFTA and Critics Choice (similar to how Anthony Hopkins from The Father managed a win over Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom two years ago). The BP momentum and SAG could push Yeoh over the line. This is a coin flip and I’m siding with the momentum.
Predicted Winner: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Best Actor
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)
A three-person race dwindled when Farrell lost the BAFTA. It went instead to Butler and he also won the Globe (over Fraser). SAG and Critics Choice went to Fraser. I have gone back and forth on this endlessly. If Fraser won, he would break a precedent of the victorious Actor’s movie being up for Best Picture. You have to go back to 2009 and Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) to find the last one whose film wasn’t in the BP lineup. I cannot stress enough that this is 50.5/49.5.
Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis
Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Unlike Actress and Actor, this is between three nominees. Curtis surprisingly nabbed SAG while Bassett took Critics Choice and the Globe. Both are actresses whose wins could double as career achievement honors. I have a suspicion that the Academy may instead look at BAFTA winner Condon as their best opportunity to throw Banshees a bone.
Predicted Winner: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Keoghan is the #2 since he unexpectedly won BAFTA. That said, this is the simplest acting race to project as Quan has won everything everywhere else.
Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking
If All Quiet over performs (and it might), it could emerge here. The smart money is on Sarah Polley and WGA honored script for Talking.
Predicted Winner: Women Talking
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
Here’s another category where voters could single out Banshees. Still – I’m not going against the strong BP frontrunner.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red
del Toro’s version of the classic tale has taken all precursors that matter. This is one of the uncomplicated calls.
Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Best International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, EO, The Quiet Girl
This might even be more automatic than Animated Feature. As your lone BP contestant, All Quiet will make noise here.
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Argentina, 1985
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, A House Made of Splinters, Navalny
Tough pick. Breathes and Beauty are viable. I’ve picked Fire of Love over Navalny twice in Critics Choice and PGA and missed both times. Not again.
Predicted Winner: Navalny
Runner-Up: Fire of Love
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front, Bardo, Elvis, Empire of Light, Tár
When perceived favorite Top Gun: Maverick shockingly failed to make this quintet, the race opened up. Elvis could make history and have the first female winner in Mandy Walker. It’s tempting to pick her, but I’ll go with Quiet.
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Elvis
Best Costume Design
Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
On the other hand, here’s one where Elvis could take the gold. I wouldn’t count out Panther or even Everything if its sweep branches into upsets.
Predicted Winner: Elvis
Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
Maverick is in the mix, but Everything should extend its haul.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale
The Whale and Western are possible. I’m giving this one to The King, however.
Predicted Winner: Elvis
Runner-Up: The Whale
Best Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
This is one of the most open categories. I don’t see Banshees landing this. All 4 others are possible. Babylon or Western might be the smart pick, but this is the one true upset I’m selecting and projecting a Fabelmans/John Williams appreciation victory.
Predicted Winner: The Fabelmans
Runner-Up: Babylon
Best Original Song
“Tell It Like a Woman” from Applause, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
I don’t believe this is cut and dry. The star power of Gaga and Rihanna or an Everything expansion everywhere could make it interesting. “Naatu Naatu” has dominated the precursors and I’m not going with two upsets in the musical competitions.
Predicted Winner: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Runner-Up: “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
Best Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans
This is where Babylon should be Oscar winner Babylon though Elvis lurks.
Predicted Winner: Babylon
Runner-Up: Elvis
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
And this is where Top Gun: Maverick should get its Oscar. Yet I’m going with a minor upset pick with Western. That means I’m projecting Maverick ends up 0 for 6.
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick
No real Maverick shot in VE because Avatar is one of the automatic category picks.
Predicted Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
That equates to these movies achieving these numbers of wins:
6 Wins
Everything Everywhere All at Once
3 Wins
All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis
1 Win
Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Navalny, RRR, Women Talking
I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening or Monday on the blog and the podcast!
A weekend of awards precursors was a blessing for Everything Everywhere All at Once. It stormed tonight’s SAG Awards and won the top prize at PGA the evening before. Make no mistake – Everything is now an even stronger frontrunner to take BP at the Oscars.
At PGA, Everything emerged as predicted. Some prognosticators went with Top Gun: Maverick as an upset pick. It wasn’t to be. The Producers Guild also went with Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio in the animated field. This is just as all other major precursors have done. It appears on a glide path for the Academy statue.
My PGA miss was in Documentary Feature as they chose Navalny over Fire of Love. Given that it’s won BAFTA and PGA, Navalny is the favorite. I don’t think it’s automatic (like I do with Pinocchio in Animated), but the odds are certainly in its favor.
Now… let’s get into SAG. Wow. I went 3 for 6. I correctly selected Everything for Best Ensemble. I nailed Stunt Ensemble for Top Gun: Maverick. And Ke Huy Quan made it a near sweep (though BAFTA went with Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin) with tonight’s Supporting Actor win. His acting race is the easiest to project for the Oscars.
The other three? They got more interesting. And I missed them all tonight!
By far, the biggest surprise is Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything) being named Supporting Actress over Critics Choice and Golden Globe winner Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), who I predicted and BAFTA winner Kerry Condon (Banshees), who was my runner-up. That potentially makes it a three-person derby at the Oscars. It is worth noting that 9 of the past 10 Supporting Actress SAG victors became the Oscar recipient. So… discount Curtis at your own peril.
In the lead acting races, my runner-ups crossed the SAG finish line. It was Michelle Yeoh (Everything) in Actress over Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) instead of Austin Butler (Elvis), who did get some airtime graciously escorting various winners up the steps. Best Actor and Actress at the Oscars are now legit two-person competitions and I’ll be mulling them over before making final predictions. They’re coming March 8th ahead of the March 12th ceremony!
Bottom line: Everywhere did everything it needed to this weekend and then some while three acting races added real intrigue. Stay tuned!
Ahead of Sunday evening’s Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, it’s the producers turn on Saturday night. The 34th PGA Awards winner for their best in show has matched the Oscar Picture victor 70% of the time in the previous decade. The times they diverged were 2015 with PGA naming The Big Short instead of Spotlight, 2016 with La La Land over Moonlight, and 2019 when 1917 took the producer prize as opposed to Parasite. PGA also has animated and documentary competitions. I’m walking through them one by one with a winner and runner-up projection.
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
There’s a 7 for 10 correlation with the PGA contenders and the BP hopefuls from the Academy. The former has Black Panther, Glass Onion, and The Whale up while the Oscars went with All Quiet on the Western Front, Triangle of Sadness, and Women Talking. The PGA is known for favoring blockbusters over some smaller pics from time to time. Previous examples that didn’t make the Academy’s cut include Bridesmaids, Skyfall, Gone Girl, Straight Outta Compton, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, and Crazy Rich Asians.
This helps explain why some prognosticators are favoring Maverick to take PGA’s highest award. Another explanation is that pundits are attempting to make the race more exciting than it actually is. I do believe Everything Everywhere All at Once is still most likely to emerge. Maverick does warrant runner-up status.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Guillermo del Toro’s Netflix rendering of the classic tale has cleaned up with precursors and there’s no reason to believe it won’t with PGA.
Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Runner-Up: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees:
All That Breathes
Descendant
Fire of Love
Navalny
Nothing Compares
Retrograde
The Territory
I wrongly picked Fire of Love to win the BAFTA instead of Navalny. Have I learned my lesson? Nope! I’m doubling down and saying a Fire PGA victory will make the Oscar quintet more competitive.
Predicted Winner: Fire of Love
Runner-Up: Navalny
I’ll have a recap up Saturday evening or Sunday ahead of the SAG show. If you missed my SAG predictions, they can be accessed here:
The past 24 hours have likely been impactful when it comes to figuring the puzzle that is Oscar prognosticating. The BAFTAs and the DGAs announced their winners. The latter went as expected. The Brits, on the other hand, showed they are still capable of surprises.
Across that pond, Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front made a lot of noise. The German WWI epic won 7 out of its 14 nominations. This includes Best Film and Director. I predicted those categories would go to The Banshees of Inisherin and the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Side note – I went 13 for 22 overall on the BAFTA picks. Quiet also took Adapted Screenplay over my favored Living. The other four were Film Not in the English Language, Cinematography, Original Score, and Sound. I called 3 of those 4, but had Babylon listed in Score instead. Ironically I picked Quiet to take Production Design. That went to Babylon.
While this is a great BAFTA performance for Quiet, I don’t believe it dramatically changes its dynamic at the Oscars. I still don’t view it as a threat to emerge victorious in Best Picture. It’s important to remember that just 3 out of the past 10 BAFTA winners ended up nabbing the biggest race at the Academy Awards. Nomadland (from 2020) is the only match of the previous 8 ceremonies. And, of course, Berger isn’t even nominated in Director for the Oscars.
In the lead acting derbies, I correctly called the victors with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Austin Butler (Elvis). This solidifies each as the frontrunners and it especially hurts Colin Farrell for Banshees. I would say he needed this to have any real shot at Best Actor on March 12th (unless he somehow manages an upset at SAG next weekend).
Banshees made up for the Best Film and Actor losses in the supporting fields. Kerry Condon is Supporting Actress which I projected. She has emerged as the alternative to Oscar favorite Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. One of the massive upsets is Barry Keoghan winning Supporting Actor over the heavily favored Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once (who was sweeping until today). I still believe Quan is looking good for Oscar.
Further races I got right: Banshees in Original Screenplay; Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio as Animated Film (continuing its sweep); Elvis in Costume Design; Everything Everywhere for Editing; Avatar: The Way of Water‘s Visual Effects; Banshees for Outstanding British Film; and Aftersun for Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer.
Where I went wrong: Navalny is Best Documentary over Fire of Love and Elvis took Casting instead of Everything Everywhere and won Make-Up & Hair over The Whale. That means Banshees and Elvis each earned 4 statues. Nothing else won more than one.
As I relayed in my DGA prediction, the directorial recipient there has matched the Oscar winning director 19 of 22 times in the 21st century. The Daniels were honorees for Everything Everywhere. Even though Everything won only Editing at BAFTA, I still think it’s the frontrunner for BP at the Oscars (as are the Daniels).
Bottom line: Quiet was loud at BAFTA. Yet the most significant storyline with Academy impact could be Butler and Blanchett firming up their standings.
The BAFTAs, Britain’s version of the Academy Awards, airs this Sunday (February 19) and it can often serve as a preview for where the Oscars will go. That holds true in same races more than others like the acting derbies.
In the past decade, 32 of the 40 winners in Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor became Oscar recipients. That’s 8 out of the past 10 Actresses, 9 for 10 in Actor, 7 for 10 in Supporting Actress, and 8 for 10 in Supporting Actor.
It’s a different story for the grand prize. A mere 3 of 10 Best Film winners at BAFTA are BP victors at the Oscars – Argo, 12 Years a Slave, and Nomadland. The percentage goes up considerably for Director at 7/10.
I’m going to keep it simple here. I’ll give you the nominees and my predicted winner and a runner-up. Let’s get to it!
Best Film
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár
Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Director
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Predicted Winner: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Todd Field, Tár
Best Actressin a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Runner-Up: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)
Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis
Runner-Up: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everywhere All at Once), Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)
Predicted Winner: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Albrecht Schuch (All Quiet on the Western Front), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)
Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, The Quiet Girl, She Said, The Whale
Predicted Winner: Living
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Film
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red
Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Best Film Not in the English Language
All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Corsage, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: The Quiet Girl
Best Documentary
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Moonage Daydream, Navalny
Predicted Winner: Fire of Love
Runner-Up: Navalny
Best Casting
Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Triangle of Sadness
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Elvis
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Empire of Light, Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Elvis
Best Costume Design
All Quiet on the Western Front, Amsterdam, Babylon, Elvis, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Predicted Winner: Elvis
Runner-Up: Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Best Editing
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Make-Up & Hair
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Whale
Predicted Winner: The Whale
Runner-Up: Elvis
Best Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Predicted Winner:Babylon
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Batman, Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Babylon
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Special Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Outstanding British Film
Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Brian and Charles, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, See How They Run, The Swimmers, The Wonder
Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Aftersun
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Aftersun, Blue Jean, Electric Malady, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Rebellion
Predicted Winner: Aftersun
Runner-Up: Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
That equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of wins:
4 Wins
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2 Wins
Elvis
1 Win
Aftersun, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Fire of Love, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Tár, The Whale
It was a glorious performance for Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin with this morning’s Oscar nominations. Both pics were up everywhere they needed to be for everything to potentially win the big prize on March 12th.
There were also strong showings for All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, The Fabelmans, and Top Gun: Maverick. However, it’s fair to say that each missed a key race or two that would’ve helped for their Best Picture viability.
As far as my own showing, I went 79 for 105 in my projections. I’ll take it though it’s slightly under my 82/105 performance from the previous year. One bright spot: no 2 for 5’s as I’d experienced a couple of times in preceding years.
Let’s walk through each race one by one with initial thoughts, shall we?
Best Picture
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
How I Did: 8/10
No real shockers. The movies that I had listed 11th and 12th (Avatar and Women Talking) made it over my selections of Babylon and The Whale. I went a little bold omitting Water in the first place.
As hinted at, I’m seeing this as between Everything and Banshees with Fabelmans as a potential spoiler (and maybe Maverick if I’m feeling bold).
Best Director
The Nominees: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
How I Did: 4/5
The Daniels v. Spielberg is where this may come down to. All Quiet had a solid morning, but Edward Berger missing (I predicted him) likely eliminates it as a BP winner. Ostlund gets in instead.
Best Actress
The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 3/5
In just the last few days, there was an organic (?) campaign launched for Riseborough by plenty of famous faces. She was nowhere near the radar for the bulk of the season. Her inclusion might alter how campaigns look in the future. Williams (who was looking shaky) and Riseborough make it over my predictions of Viola Davis (The Woman King) and Danielle Deadwyler (Till). Both of their pics were shutout completely. As for who makes the podium trip, it’s either Blanchett or Yeoh.
Best Actor
The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
For most prognosticators, this came down to Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick vs. Mescal for the fifth slot. It wasn’t to be for a fourth Cruise nod. For Mescal and Nighy, it’s an honor to be in the quintet. The race is between Butler and Farrell and Fraser (who have all nabbed key precursors). FYI – this entire lineup is first-time nominees and 16 of the acting nominees are newbies (which is very high).
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 4/5
Hsu, who was my alternate, is in over Triangle‘s Dolly De Leon. If you’d told me De Leon’s movie would get Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay – I would’ve been even more confident she’d make it. With victories already at the Globes and Critics Choice, Bassett is the frontrunner.
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 4/5
Henry gets the unanticipated nod over my pick of Paul Dano in The Fabelmans (many had Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse projected here). This is, frankly, the simplest acting derby to call and it is Quan.
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
The expected five as the Banshees v Everything showdown could be a clue during the night as to what wins BP at the end of it.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking
How I Did: 3/5
Maverick and All Quiet over She Said (which was shut out) and The Whale. Considering Women Talking made it in the BP ten, it could get the gold in this race and this one only since it received the least amount of nods (2) for the BP hopefuls. As an aside, there’s always a screenplay contender that gets no other noms anywhere else. This year it was Glass Onion.
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red
How I Did: 4/5
Pinocchio should take this, but this marks its only nod (it was expected to contend for Song and some techs). I had gone with Netflix’s Wendell and Wild for the fifth spot over Netflix’s The Sea Beast.
Best International Feature Film
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, EO, The Quiet Girl
How I Did: 3/5
Here’s where there was a total surprise with Decision to Leave getting snubbed. I would’ve had it as the runner-up possibility to win over All Quiet (easily the favorite). I didn’t have Close or EO (though neither is unexpected). In addition to Decision, I also had Joyland.
Best Documentary Feature
The Nominees: All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, A House Made of Splinters, Navalny
How I Did: 4/5
Had Descendant instead of Splinters. There’s a path to victory for everything but Splinters in my view.
Best Cinematography
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Bardo, Elvis, Empire of Light, Tár
How I Did: 3/5
Top Gun: Maverick missing is baffling considering it was a major threat to win. It misses along with The Batman in favor of Bardo and Tár. I wouldn’t discount Empire for the victory though Quiet could make noise in this one.
Best Costume Design
The Nominees: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
How I Did: 4/5
Everything‘s over performance is evident. I had The Woman King instead. The first three alphabetically are your possible winners.
Best Film Editing
The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 3/5
In years past, getting an editing nod is often needed if you want to take BP. So it’s bad news for All Quiet and The Fabelmans. Banshees and Tár join the lineup in their place. Elvis, Everything, and Maverick all possibilities.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale
How I Did: 4/5
Had Amsterdam and not Quiet. Elvis or The Whale are most likely.
Best Original Score
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
How I Did: 3/5
Considering it made BP, I didn’t think Women Talking would miss. I also had Pinocchio but it’s All Quiet and Everything. This could be the sole Oscar for Babylon.
Best Original Song
The Nominees: “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
How I Did: 4/5
Had Pinocchio‘s “Ciao Papa” and not the Everything tune. Despite big names like Lady Gaga, Rihanna, and producer Diane Warren in the mix, “Naatu Naatu” has taken the precursors.
Best Production Design
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans
How I Did: 4/5
A rare occurrence as I had Everything projected and it didn’t make it. All Quiet materializes instead. This could be Elvis or maybe a second shot for Babylon.
Best Sound
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 4/5
The sound you hear when the envelope opens might be Maverick‘s only victory (now that Cinematography is impossible). I had EEAAO and not The Batman.
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 3/5
Had the wrong MCU pic with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and not Panther. All Quiet is also in and I had Thirteen Lives. This should be the Avatar trophy.
That means these movies ended up garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
9 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin
8 Nominations
Elvis
7 Nominations
The Fabelmans
6 Nominations
Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water
3 Nominations
Babylon, The Batman, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale
2 Nominations
Living, Women Talking
1 Nomination
Aftersun, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Blonde, Causeway, Close, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, A House Made of Splinters, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Quiet Girl, RRR, The Sea Beast, Tell It Like a Woman, To Leslie, Turning Red
So what’s next? Followers of the blog may recall that I will soon begin my “Case Of” posts. That’s 35 separate write-ups making the case for and against all contenders in Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. Stay tuned!
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