Oscar Predictions: What’s Love Got to Do with It?

What’s Love Got to Do with It? is not a remake of the Tina Turner biopic nearly three decades after the original. Instead it’s a rom com about arranged marriage from Shekhar Kapur, best known for directing Cate Blanchett to two Oscar nominations for Elizabeth (1998) and its follow-up The Golden Age (2007). Lily James, Shazad Latif, Emma Thompson, and Taj Atwal are among the cast.

The film premiered at Toronto to a middle of the road reaction with 67% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. At the moment, Love is slated for a UK opening in January and it’s not clear if an awards qualifying run is happening for 2022.

I don’t think it matters. This might’ve been a pic that could make waves at the Globes in the Musical/Comedy races, but even that seems like a stretch. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Ticket to Paradise

These posts about the awards viability of many pictures might be called “Oscar Predictions”. Sometimes it’s more of a Golden Globe predictions centered type of thing. That’s the case with Ticket to Paradise. The rom com has heavy star wattage with George Clooney and Julia Roberts as a divorced couple trying to prevent the pending nuptials of their daughter (Kaitlyn Dever). Ol Parker, who last made Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, directs. Costars include Maxime Bouttier, Billie Lourd, and Lucas Bravo.

Paradise is out in many parts of Europe next week before its October 21st domestic booking. Many reviews are out and the Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 67%. Academy attention is a non-starter. However, I do wonder if The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) will take a look at Clooney or Roberts in the lead races in Musical/Comedy at the Globes. It remains to be seen how competitive those competitions are for 2022.

If the Globes want some big celebs in the mix as they return to the airwaves next year, you could do a lot worse. It’s just as possible that won’t happen, but I wouldn’t count it out. My Oscar (or Globe) Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Lost King

Focused on the 2012 discovery of King Richard III’s remains, dramedy The Lost King premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its October 7th UK release. Domestic distribution is still undetermined. Stephen Frears directs a cast led by Sally Hawkins, Steve Coogan (who cowrote the script with Jeff Pope), and Harry Lloyd.

Critics are mixed on King and it stands at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes. I never really figured this as an Academy contender, but thought the Globes could take notice in the Musical/Comedy races if it garnered enough praise. It’s not out of the question that Hawkins could find her way into the Globes Actress derby if competition is light. It’s also (perhaps more) likely that this is ignored altogether. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Menu

Mark Mylod’s The Menu is receiving mostly positive orders after premiering in Toronto before its November 18th domestic release. Will awards voters find it appetizing? The black comedy stars Anya Taylor-Joy, Nicholas Hoult, Ralph Fiennes, Hong Chau, Janet McTeer, Judith Light, and John Leguizamo.

The Searchlight Pictures release stands at 89% on Rotten Tomatoes with plenty of critics praising the screenplay. Perhaps the original script from Seth Reiss and Will Tracy could contend. Fiennes, in particular, is being singled out and a Supporting Actor nod is potentially in the mix.

Yet I suspect the Palme d’or winning Ruben Ostlund’s Triangle of Sadness, with its similar subject matter, might achieve Academy attention instead of this. There could be room for both, but I’m uncertain. Where The Menu could make a play is at the Golden Globes in the Musical/Comedy Best Picture derby. That’s also where Taylor-Joy may surface in Best Actress. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

The critics certainly don’t have their knives out for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. This is the eagerly awaited follow-up to Rian Johnson’s 2019 comedic murder mystery which grossed over $300 million worldwide and gave Daniel Craig another franchise. Johnson and Craig are back with a new supporting cast that includes Edward Norton, Janelle Monae, Kathryn Hahn, Leslie Odom Jr., Jessicas Henwick, Madelyn Cline, Kate Hudson, and Dave Bautista.

Slated for select cinemas in November before a December 23rd Netflix bow, Onion has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival with reviews saying it’s quite appealing. Some even claim it improves on the original. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.

Three years ago, Knives had a sliver of hope to nab a Best Picture nomination, but it never materialized. An Original Screenplay mention was the reward for its success. This time around, it would contend in Adapted Screenplay since it’s based on existing IP. That could happen though let’s see how competitive that race is over the remainder of the year. I suspect if we see a sequel nominated for Best Picture in 2022, it’ll be Top Gun: Maverick and not this… and we still don’t know how solid Avatar: The Way of Water is. As for performances, Monae is being singled out in several write-ups as the MVP. However, Supporting Actress is already starting to looked stacked.

Where Onion could sizzle is at the Golden Globes with a Musical/Comedy Best Motion Picture nod and Best Actor in that category for Craig. That occurred in 2019 and could happen again. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Bros

Bros has made quite the splash in its premiere at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its September 30th stateside rollout. This is the first rom com to feature a primarily LGBTQ+ cast. Nicholas Stoller, who’s helmed successful genre fare like Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Neighbors, directs. Billy Eichner and Luke Macfarlane are the lead couple with a supporting cast including Ts Madison, Monica Raymond, Guillermo Diaz, Guy Branum, Amanda Bearse, Bowen Yang, and Debra Messing.

Early word out of Canada is that this is an entertaining and alternately sweet and raunchy romp (something I can confirm having been at the world premiere last night). The Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at 89%. I’m not sure Bros is as much an Oscar player (where there’s a comedic allergy) as it is a Globes contender. Since they differentiate between Drama and Musical/Comedy, I could easily see the Hollywood Foreign Press nominating this for Best Picture and for Eichner in Best Actor.

That said, I wouldn’t say its Academy hopes are completely dashed. There’s usually a lone screenplay nominee that receives no other nods and Stoller and Eichner’s original screenplay could fit that particular bill. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Banshees of Inisherin

Officially, The Banshees of Inisherin is Martin McDonagh’s follow-up to 2017’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Five years ago, that pic nabbed 6 Oscar nods including Picture and the playwright/filmmaker’s original screenplay while winning acting trophies for Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell. Yet Banshees, thematically and personnel wise, may feel more like a follow-up to 2008’s In Bruges. That pitch black comedy earned critical raves and a Golden Globe for Colin Farrell in the Musical/Comedy Best Actor race. Mr. Farrell reunites with Brudges costar Brendan Gleeson in this 1920s set tale of Irish feuding friends. Barry Keoghan and Kerry Condon are among the supporting cast.

Early reviews are quite encouraging with some critics already claiming it’s McDonagh’s finest work to date. If that narrative holds, Banshees could be a bigger Oscar player than I had been assuming. It could even be Fox Searchlight’s strongest contender over Empire of Light, which has its ardent admirers but also drew some mixed Venice reaction. I certainly believe Farrell and Gleeson could be in line for their first nominations (I would think in Actor and Supporting Actor respectively). Condon is generating solid ink and could factor into Supporting Actress (though that category is looking increasingly stuffed). Original Screenplay seems a given while the Carter Burwell score could also make the cut.

If much of the above pans out, we could have another legit BP hopeful in Banshees. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Shoulda Been Oscar Contenders: Jim Carrey in The Truman Show

1994’s 1-2-3 comedic punch of Ace Ventura: Pet Detective, The Mask, and Dumb and Dumber vaulted Jim Carrey from In Living Color small screen MVP to one of the biggest movie stars on the planet. $20 million paydays followed and, four years later, the Canadian phenom entered the awards conversation.

For Peter Weir’s prescient satire The Truman Show, Carrey’s performance mixed the funny with the dramatic for the first time in a major role. Solid box office numbers and impressive reviews followed. Ed Harris was nominated for a Supporting Actor Oscar in addition to Weir’s direction and the original screenplay.

Yet a nod for its headliner was inexplicably left on the cutting room floor. This was even after he won Best Actor (Drama) at the Golden Globes. To be fair, other nominations in the main acting derby featured heavy hitters: Tom Hanks (Saving Private Ryan), Ian McKellen (Gods and Monsters), Nick Nolte (Affliction), and Edward Norton (American History X).

If I had a magic wand, I probably would put Carrey in over the somewhat surprise winner – Roberto Benigni for Life is Beautiful. Nearly a quarter century ago, Carrey’s omission stands as another example of actors known more for laughs coming up short. He still has not managed to get on the Oscar radar and lately his cinematic output has been Sonic the Hedgehog related. The Truman Show, in all reality, should’ve been his contender.

Oscar Predictions: Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Sporting a 92% Rotten Tomatoes rating, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris lands in theaters this Friday and Focus Features is hoping for a midsize hit. Based on a 1958 novel by Paul Gallico, Lesley Manville stars a widowed housekeeper who treks to the title city to obtain a Dior dress.

The talented Ms. Manville is no stranger to pictures covering the fashion world. In 2017, she secured an Oscar nod alongside Daniel Day-Lewis in Paul Thomas Anderson’s Phantom Thread. While the reviews are complimentary, Paris is highly unlikely to compete for major above the line categories… with the possible exception of Actress. While I wouldn’t count on it, if the Best Actress derby doesn’t produce many surefire contenders in the coming months, Manville could be a factor. I would, however, say it’s far more feasible that she gets a nod at the Golden Globes in the Musical/Comedy competition. BAFTA recognition is also doable.

Where the picture stands the strongest chance is in Costume Design since that’s a significant focus of the storyline. That category should have its share of upcoming hopefuls – Babylon and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever immediately come to mind. Don’t be surprised if Paris is in that mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five

And now for a new category on my blog that will update itself yearly after 13 initial posts covering 2009-21. It’s a simple concept. In 2009 – the Academy shifted their rules from a set amount of five Best Picture nominees to 10. That lasted for 2 years. In 2011, the number could fluctuate anywhere from 5-10. In most years, the magic number was 8 or 9 (it was never less than 8). Last year, the big race reverted back to a definite 10.

So… what if it hadn’t? What if 5 nominees was never altered? Well, Oscar speculators like yours truly would have to write posts predicting what would’ve been the final five. So that’s what this is all about.

Naturally it begins with 2009. Before that, something from 2008 might’ve contributed to the shift when The Dark Knight famously missed BP even though it was a critical darling and box office smash. A shift to 10 allowed popcorn favorites and smaller titles to make the cut. And they did.

When it comes to whittling down from 10 (or later 8 or 9) to five, there’s plenty of factors in play. What else did the movie get nominated for or win? Some races are more important than others like Director and Editing or the Screenplay derbies.

Yet it’s far from an exact science. This is educated guesswork based on Oscar history. I’ll walk through each title and give an ultimate Yes or No on whether it makes the five. The first is automatic and that’s whatever won. In 2009 that honor belonged to…

The Hurt Locker