This weekend, Harold Cronk (director of God’s Not Dead and its first sequel) has the faith-based war drama God Bless the Broken Road opening in theaters. Next weekend, the busy filmmaker releases Unbroken: Path to Redemption. It is deemed a “spiritual sequel” to 2014’s Unbroken. Pure Flix Entertainment is the distributor and I have a feeling we are about to see one of the largest opening weekend disparities from predecessor to follow-up.
Four years ago, Angelina Jolie made the first entry. It opened on Christmas Day and took in $46 million over the holiday weekend with an eventual domestic haul of $115 million. None of the principles behind that hit are back. Samuel Hunt takes over the lead role that Jack O’Connell played and the supporting cast includes Merritt Patterson, Vanessa Bell Calloway (most known as Eddie Murphy’s arranged wife 30 years ago in Coming to America), Bob Gunton, Gary Cole and evangelist Will Graham (who plays his late grandfather Billy).
I’m not so sure moviegoers are even aware of this sequel’s existence. Redemption is currently slated to premiere on a rather low 1200 screens. I have this weekend’s Harold Cronk movie (Broken Road) estimated at $2.1 million. I’ll bump this one a tad bit more, but not by much.
Unbroken: Path to Redemption opening weekend prediction: $2.5 million
This Friday, the faith-based military drama GodBlesstheBrokenRoad parks in approximately 1200 theaters. To say the pic has an eclectic mix of participants is an understatement. Harold Cronk directs and he’s responsible for distributor Freestyle Releasing largest hit God’sNotDead and its sequel. It’s based on a song made known by country band Rascal Flatts (which automatically causes me to point out that they hail from my home of Columbus, Ohio). And the cast includes Lindsay Pulsipher, Jordin Sparks, Robin Givens, and former NFL superstar LaDainian Tomlinson.
Quite the grouping, huh? The low number of theaters certainly limits its prospects. That said, pics geared toward Christian audiences can often surprise. We all saw a huge example of that earlier this year when ICanOnlyImagine (also based on a song) demolished all expectations.
I don’t see this happening. I think the road for this ends with $3 million as a likely ceiling and I’ll go under that.
GodBlesstheBrokenRoad opening weekend prediction: $2.1 million
This Easter weekend, God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness debuts in theaters. It is the third Christian themed drama in a franchise that began four years ago. Michael Mason directs a cast that includes David A.R. White, John Corbett, Shane Harper, Ted McGinley, Jennifer Taylor, Tatum O’Neal, rapper Shwayze, and Cissy Houston (mother of Whitney).
The Pure Flix release finds itself in direct competition with some similar genre fare. This is the third faith-based release in as many weeks. I Can Only Imagine will be in its third weekend and Paul, Apostle of Christ in its second. In 2014, God’s Not Dead premiered to $9.2 million and legged out splendidly to a $60 million domestic gross. Two years later, God’s Not Dead 2 couldn’t match it with a $7.6 million debut and only a $20 million overall total.
Even with the advantage of the Easter opening, the competition and dwindling fortune of part 2 could hinder this. I’ll predict it continues that downward trajectory.
God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million
Over Memorial Day weekend this year, Disney’s Alice Through the Looking Glass opened to an abysmal $33 million over the holiday weekend, immediately making it one of the biggest bombs of 2016. How poor was that opening? It’s the sequel to 2010’s Alice in Wonderland, which made $116 million in its first weekend (which was a three-day frame, not a four-day one). Looking Glass will be lucky to make $80M in its entire domestic run, nearly $40M under what Wonderland earned in its premiere weekend. Ouch.
Is there an easy explanation? Did Disney take too long with the six year hiatus between franchise entries? Perhaps. Did the negative tabloid publicity surrounding star Johnny Depp hurt? Maybe.
Yet another explanation is likely part of the equation. In 2016, moviegoers have seemed to catch a case of “sequelitis” and their symptoms have been affecting box office grosses for a number of pictures already this year.
Over that same Memorial Day weekend, X-Men: Apocalypse ruled the charts with a $79 million debut. That would seem impressive, except X-Men: Days of Future Past made $110 million over the same weekend just two years earlier.
This story has repeated itself repeatedly in recent months. Ride Along 2 was expected to build on its predecessor’s opening weekend. The 2014 original cruised to a $41M opening. The sequel: $35M. When all was said and done, the first Ride made $44M more than its follow-up.
Other comedies have suffered the same fate. 2001’s Zoolander actually only made $45 million in its initial run, but became a major cult hit in subsequent years. It’s long gestating sequel would surely earn more. It didn’t. Just $28M.
2002’s My Big Fat Greek Wedding became the unexpected smash of that year with $241M stateside. Part 2? $59 million (to be fair, this was on the higher end of many expectations, but still just 25% of what the first Wedding did).
2014’s Neighbors? $150 million. Last month’s Neighbors: Sorority Rising? It should top out at around $60M.
Barbershop: The Next Cut will make $55 million, under the $75M and $65M of its predecessors (though still not bad).
The action crowd has showed their ambivalence. London Has Fallen earned a just OK $62 million compared to Olympus Has Fallen‘s $98M.
2014’s Divergent made $150 million. 2015’s Insurgent: $130 million. This year’s Allegiant: a troubling $66 million.
Then there’s The Huntsman Winter’s War, which may not even reach $50 million. It’s the sequel to Snow White and the Huntsman, which made $155 million.
Just this weekend, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows took in $35 million in its debut, which is a shell of the $65 million that the first made two summers ago.
Faith based audiences propelled God’s Not Dead to a heavenly $60 million gross in 2014. Part 2? $20 million.
Kung Fu Panda 3 performed decently with $143 million, but couldn’t match part 1’s $215M or part 2’s $165M.
Seeing a trend here, folks?
There have been rare exceptions in 2016 so far. 10 Cloverfield Lane managed $72 million. Even though that’s below the $80M of Cloverfield, it’s still a solid gross and a profitable venture for its studio.
And Captain America: Civil War was widely expected to outdo the respective $176M and $259M earnings of the first two entries. This was due to it basically being The Avengers 3. It did and will top $400M domestically.
Coming this weekend: two more sequels will try to avoid the 2016 trend and both actually have a decent chance of succeeding. The Conjuring 2 is receiving positive reviews and its studio is hoping the goodwill left over from the 2013 original will propel it to similar grosses (I’m predicting it’ll make $42 million for its start, slightly above the first).
Now You See Me 2 is hoping to match the $29 million made by the 2013 original for its beginning. I’m predicting $24M.
If both of these titles come in below expectations, that may truly show that crowds are just plain sick and tired of seeing roman numerals and numbers behind titles. Looking over the remainder of the 2016 calendar, there’s a heap of sequels that could also struggle to match what came before them. They include:
The Purge: Election Year. Bridget Jones’s Baby. Underworld: Blood Wars. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back. Ouija 2. Bad Santa 2.
Even this month’s Independence Day: Resurgence is an iffy proposition to capitalize on the nostalgia factor from the 1996 original. It appears unlikely to match the $306M earned 20 years ago by the first one.
Next month’s Star Trek Beyond could have trouble matching the $228M made by part 2 in 2013.
Inferno, the third Tom Hanks thriller based on Dan Brown’s novels, is a question mark to match the $133M that Angels & Demons made in 2011 and certainly won’t approach The Da Vinci Code‘s $217M a decade ago.
When it comes to 2016 sequels, it might not all be bad news. Finding Dory (out June 17) shouldn’t have much trouble topping the $70M that Nemo made in 2003 (though whether it reaches its eventual gross of $380M is a mystery).
And July’s Jason Bourne should benefit from having Matt Damon return to the franchise after nine years away. It should manage to outpace the $113M made by Jeremy Renner’s The Bourne Legacy in 2012. However, could it approach the $227M earned by Damon’s last one, 2007’s The Bourne Ultimatum? Probably not.
Perhaps these disappointing results for so many sequels will cause studios to give us more original programming, but don’t hold your breath. Next year is already packed with follow-ups and some of them already look like they could be in trouble.
For instance, it’s probably safe to assume Disney is sweating over the fifth Pirates of the Caribbean flick, Dead Men Tell No Tales. Same goes for Lionsgate with their final Divergent pic, Ascendant.
Some of the 2017 sequels that may not have much to worry about: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. Fast 8. And, of course, Star Wars: Episode VIII.
Yet given the recent trends, who knows? No one thought Alice or Huntsman or Allegiantwould do that poorly and it’s contributed to a bad… and maybe badly needed downturn for sequels in 2016.
Melissa McCarthy’s latest comedy The Boss will look to demote Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice to the runner-up spot when it opens this weekend. Additionally, the video game like action pic Hardcore Henry debuts. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of the newbies here:
I have The Boss opening a bit under what some recent McCarthy pictures have accomplished over the last three years. Still, considering the hefty sophomore decline that BvS experienced this past weekend (more on that below), it could create a photo finish for the top spot. My estimates have the Caped Crusader and Man of Steel slightly ahead for a narrow three-peat, as I see it dipping just over 50% in weekend 3.
As for the rest of the top five, Zootopia should easily manage a third place showing, as long as Hardcore Henry doesn’t rather significantly exceed expectations. I actually have Henry in a tight battle with My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 for the four spot and have it a bit ahead.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Predicted Gross: $24.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. The Boss
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million
3. Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 23%)
4. Hardcore Henry
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
5. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 35%)
Box Office Results (April 1-3)
All eyes were on the second weekend of Batman v Justice: Dawn of Justice, which had a terrific opening but was subjected to so-so audience word of mouth and many harsh reviews. The drop was even more significant than most prognosticated as it fell a steep 69% to $51.3 million (below my $59.1M prediction). The Warner Bros. tent pole has taken in $260 million in 10 days and while those numbers are nothing to sneeze at, the studio has to be at least a little concerned with a fall that massive.
Zootopia easily held the #2 spot with $19.3 million in its fifth weekend, zooming past my $14.9M estimate. The Disney animated smash has earned $275M so far.
In third was My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 with $11.2 million in its second weekend (I went a little under with $9.4M) for a $36M total. While it won’t even reach a third of its predecessor’s $241M domestic haul from 14 years ago, it’s still doing respectable business.
Faith based sequel God’s Not Dead 2 couldn’t match the opening of its predecessor two years ago. It made $7.6 million (I predicted $9.6M), which is under the $9.2M achieved by the original (which only debuted on half the number of screens).
Another Christian themed feature, Miracles from Heaven, rounded out the top five with $7.2 million, ahead of my $5.7M prognosis for a three-week gross of $46M.
Finally, the weekend’s other debut – the Mike Epps Purge spoof Meet the Blacks – exceeded most expectations in 8th place with $4 million, just ahead of my $3.7M projection.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
After a record-breaking Easter weekend for two iconic superheroes, the first weekend of April brings a slowdown as only two non major studio pics debut. They are faith-based sequel God’s Not Dead 2 and Mike Epps’ Purge parody Meet the Blacks. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Let’s get the newbies out of the way first. I look for God’s Not Dead 2 to open within the same range as its predecessor two years ago. That should leave it in a close battle with the second weekend of My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, which I have falling by almost half.
As for Meet the Blacks, it’s only opening on about 1000 screens and I believe it will be lucky to reach $5 million. My $3.7 million estimate for it leaves it outside the top five.
Zootopia should continue its smallish declines and retain the #2 position. Miracles from Heaven should round out the top five, as long as Blacks doesn’t exceed my estimate.
That leaves the biggest question of the week: how much will Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice drop in its sophomore weekend? Down below, you can read all about its record-setting debut. Critics have not been kind and its B Cinemascore grade indicates that even audiences aren’t exactly loving it. Here’s how some other tent poles dipped in their second weekends (all of these titles made between $147-$191M out of the gate):
Avengers: Age of Ultron – 59%
Iron Man 3 – 58%
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 – 72%
The Dark Knight Rises – 61%
Spider-Man 3 – 61%
Furious 7 – 59%
Then there’s 2013’s Man of Steel, which serves as Justice‘s predecessor. It didn’t have the greatest buzz either and dropped 64% after a $116 million debut.
So where does that leave us? I actually believe BvS is going to fall right around with where Man of Steel did (63-65 percent).
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Predicted Gross: $59.1 million (representing a drop of 64%)
2. Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 38%)
3. God’s Not Dead 2
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
4. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million (representing a drop of 47%)
5. Miracles from Heaven
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 41%)
Box Office Results (March 25-27)
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice accomplished having the seventh largest opening of all time and kick starting Warner Bros. Justice League features and intended spin-offs to the tune of a $166 million debut. My prognosis? $166.4M! Pretty happy with this one. While critics were mostly not kind (a 29% Rotten Tomatoes score), audience anticipation was clearly peaked. It just missed being its studio’s biggest opener (the final Harry Potter did $169M), but it did set the record for the month of March and highest Easter performer. The big question, as mentioned above, is how far it falls in weekend #2 and I’m predicting it’ll be rather precipitous.
Zootopia took the runner-up spot with $24 million (in line with my $23.4M estimate) for a four-week tally of $241 million.
Opening in third and with higher than anticipated numbers was long gestating comedy sequel My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 with $17.8 million, above my $13.1M projection. This is a positive result considering reviews were poor and it had been 14 years since the mega hit original. This was never expected to approach the amazing $241M the first Wedding pocketed and it certainly won’t, but overall this is a fine result.
In a close battle for fourth among features in their second weekends, Miracles from Heaven edged out The Divergent Series: Allegiant. The faith-based Heaven capitalized on the Easter weekend with $9.6 million (a bit below my $10.9M estimate) for a total of $34M. Allegiant continued its plummet with $9.4 million (under my $12.7M projection) for an overall gross of $46M. It may top out at just around $65M – its two predecessors made $150M and $130M, respectively. Ouch.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
Two years ago, the faith based drama God’s Not Dead turned into quite the sleeper hit. After opening with a surprisingly robust $9.2 million, it held firmly in subsequent weekends to the tune of a $60 million overall gross.
Now we have a sequel opening next weekend and God’s Not Dead 2 has plenty of similarities to the original. For one – a rather eclectic cast. Part one boasted both TV’s Hercules (Kevin Sorvo) and Superman (Dean Cain). The sequel has Melissa Joan Hart of “Sabrina, the Teeange Witch” fame, “Desperate Housewives” alum Jesse Metcalfe, the late Tennesse Senator and actor Fred Thompson, Mike Tyson’s ex Robin Givens, and fourth Ghostbuster Ernie Hudson. I wasn’t kidding, folks!
The original was made on a reported $2 million budget and while I couldn’t find a reported price tag for this, it’s probably not much and it shouldn’t have much trouble turning a profit. However, that doesn’t mean it’ll earn as much as its predecessor. There has been a bunch of similar genre pics in recent weeks (Miracles from Heaven, Risen, The Young Messiah) and that could have some effect.
I look for this to open in the same range as the first and perhaps just above it, but it may not have the legs to get to an eventual $60M domestic tally.
God’s Not Dead 2 opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million