September 24-26 Box Office Predictions

Marvel’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings looks to make it a clean sweep at #1 for the month of September this weekend. The only competitor standing in its way is Dear Evan Hansen, the adaptation of the hit Broadway musical. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Dear Evan Hansen Box Office Prediction

The fact that Hansen is garnering mixed reviews has me questioning whether it reaches double digits. I’m guessing no and that should put it in the runner-up position behind Rings, which may only drop in the low 30s.

Holdovers will populate the rest of the five as we await some potential October behemoths starting with Venom: Let There Be Carnage and continuing with No Time to Die, Halloween Kills, and Dune.

Until then, expect a rather quiet end to this month at multiplexes. Here’s how I envision the top five:

1. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million

2. Dear Evan Hansen

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

3. Free Guy

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

4. Cry Macho

Predicted Gross: $2.8 million

5. Candyman

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million

Box Office Results (September 17-19)

Shang-Chi steamrolled the rest of the weak competition in its third frame with $21.6 million. That’s just above my $20.1 million projection as the MCU juggernaut has amassed $176 million thus far with $200 million easily in its sights.

Free Guy dipped a scant 9% for second place in its sixth weekend with $5 million (I said $4.2 million). It has crossed the nine digit mark at $108 million.

The weekend’s top newcomer was Clint Eastwood’s Cry Macho with a ho-hum $4.4 million compared to my more generous $6.4 million estimate. Perhaps its intended older demographic opted to view it on HBO Max or, with its mixed reviews, not at all.

Candyman was fourth with $3.5 million, holding up better than my $2.6 million take. Total is $53 million.

Keeping with the horror theme, Malignant dropped 50% in its sophomore weekend with $2.7 million. That’s decent for its genre and it’s generated plenty of chatter (good and bad) that might have assisted in a curiosity factor. In two weeks, it’s made $9 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.

That’s because Gerard Butler’s latest action thriller Copshop (despite a decent critical response) tanked with only $2.3 million in sixth. I went with $4.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 17-19 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Note (09/16): I am revising my prediction for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. It appears to be in more of a limited release than I anticipated so my estimate goes from $3.4 million to $1.7M. That puts it outside of the top five and allows Candyman the five spot.

A trio of newcomers are out Friday, but none stand much of a chance at dethroning Marvel’s sizzling Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings. We have Clint Eastwood’s Cry Macho, Gerard Butler’s action thriller Copshop, and the Jessica Chastain led biopic The Eyes of Tammy Faye. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

Cry Macho Box Office Prediction

Copshop Box Office Prediction

The Eyes of Tammy Faye Box Office Prediction

I’m not projecting any of the newbies will hit double digits, but I’ll say Eastwood’s latest comes closest. I’m hedging a bit since Macho will stream on HBO Max. However, it should make enough to overshadow Copshop (though Butler has over performed in the past).

The Eyes of Tammy Faye is a tricky one since there’s no screen count available at press time. The pic is garnering Oscar buzz for Chastain. My estimate could fluctuate. For now, I have it in a battle with Free Guy for the four spot.

As mentioned, Shang-Chi should have no issue making it three weeks on top. A low 40s drop might put it just over $20 million.

And with that, my take on the top 5:

1. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Predicted Gross: $20.1 million

2. Cry Macho

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

3. Copshop

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

4. Free Guy

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

5. Candyman

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (September 10-12)

It was a glorious weekend for Shang-Chi as it achieved the best sophomore frame of any feature during COVID. The MCU blockbuster took in $34.7 million, a tad below my $36.4 million prediction. The ten-day is up to an impressive $144 million. While Rings fell short of Black Widow‘s pandemic era best start, it held up considerably better for the follow-up.

Free Guy was second with $5.5 million as it crossed the century mark at $101 million. My projection? $5.5 million!

Despite plenty of internet chatter over the weekend due to its wild twists, James Wan’s horror flick Malignant stalled with audiences (though many may view it on HBO Max). It was third at $5.4 million, falling under my $7.6 million take.

Candyman held the four spot at $4.7 million (I said $5.1 million) as its made $47 million.

Jungle Cruise rounded out the top five with $2.3 million (I was right there at $2.4 million) and it sails in with $109 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Copshop Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (09/16): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my estimate down from $6.4 million to $4.5M

Open Road Films is hoping that moviegoers stop, drop everything and help open up Copshop to solid numbers when it debuts September 17th. The action thriller from Joe Carnahan is headlined by Gerard Butler. Costars include Frank Grillo and Alexis Louder.

The pic will essentially rely solely on Butler’s star power. He’s often found his niche in the genre. This includes the trilogy where something (be it Olympus, London or Angel) has fallen. There were also low to mid teens starts for Den of Thieves and Geostorm. Butler’s recent Greenland did well on VOD services. On the other hand, 2018’s Hunter Killer only achieved $6.6 million out of the gate.

Butler has shown the ability to get rather generic seeming titles to decent debuts. Copshop hitting double digits wouldn’t be a huge surprise, but I’m thinking a debut more in the Hunter Killer range is the right call.

Copshop opening weekend prediction: $4.5 million

For my Cry Macho prediction, click here:

Cry Macho Box Office Prediction

For my The Eyes of Tammy Faye prediction, click here:

The Eyes of Tammy Faye Box Office Prediction

Angel Has Fallen Box Office Prediction

In 2913, Olympus Has Fallen surprised box office prognosticators with a gross of $98 million stateside, eclipsing the earnings of the similarly themed and higher profile White House Down from that same year. The Gerard Butler action thriller has now spawned two sequels with Angel Has Fallen rising in cinemas next weekend.

Butler’s Secret Service agent now finds himself framed for the attempted assassination of Morgan Freeman’s character. Ric Roman Waugh, best known for directing Dwayne Johnson in Snitch, is behind the camera. Costars include Jada Pinkett Smith, Lance Reddick, Tim Blake Nelson, Piper Perabo, Danny Huston, and Nick Nolte.

As mentioned, Olympus was a sleeper hit that soared out of the gate with $30 million. 2016 follow-up London Has Fallen couldn’t match those numbers with a $21 million start and $62 million eventual tally.

My expectation is that the third edition will continue the downward trend. Mid to possibly high teens is likely. In the dog days of August, that might be enough for an unremarkable #1 debut.

Angel Has Fallen opening weekend prediction: $15.2 million

For my Overcomer prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/14/overcomer-box-office-prediction/

For my Ready or Not prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/16/ready-or-not-box-office-prediction/

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Box Office Prediction

Dreamworks Animation closes out its animated trilogy next weekend with the release of How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World. The critically acclaimed franchise began in 2010 with a sequel that followed four years later. Dean DeBlois, maker of the first two, returns to direct the third installment that comes with a reported budget of nearly $130 million. Actors providing voices include Jay Baruchel, America Ferrera, Cate Blanchett, Craig Ferguson, Gerard Butler, F. Murray Abraham, Jonah Hill, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, and Kristin Wiig.

Nearly a decade ago, the original Dragon debuted to $43 million and legged out nicely to an overall $217 domestic gross. The 2014 follow-up topped the opening of part 1 with $49 million. However, it ended up taking in $177 million total. While the studio certainly hopes for robust stateside sales, the series has been a juggernaut overseas (Dragon 2 made $621 million worldwide). The Hidden World is out in numerous foreign markets already and taken in $85 million thus far.

I’ll project this threequel gets in the range of what preceded it and put it in the middle of what they accomplished.

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World opening weekend prediction: $44.7 million

For my Fighting with My Family prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/02/14/fighting-with-my-family-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch – How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

We are just two days into the new year, but it’s already time for my first Oscar Watch post of 2019. That’s because How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World comes out in Australia tomorrow before its stateside release on February 22. Early reviews are out and the third and final installment of the Dreamworks Animation franchise is receiving solid ones. The action fantasy sequel stands at 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.

In 2010, the original Dragon nabbed a Best Animated Feature nod at the Oscars. Four years later, part 2 accomplished the same. Both pictures lost to titles coming from the mighty Mouse Factory – Toy Story 3 and Big Hero 6, respectively. The Disney competition will be fierce this year with Toy Story 4 and Frozen 2.

That said, even at this extraordinarily early date, the latest Dragon already looks like a serious contender for a nomination given the history of the series. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Hunter Killer Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (10/25/18): On the eve of its premiere, I am revising my estimate down from $10.2 million to $8.2 million

Gerard Butler headlines the action thriller Hunter Killer next weekend alongside Gary Oldman, Common, Linda Cardellini, and Toby Stephens. The submarine set pic comes out in the Halloween frame – which is typically a slow one at the box office. It will, at best, come in second to sophomore weekend for Halloween.

While there doesn’t seem to be much buzz for it, Butler has seen his recent efforts make a little more than anticipated. This includes Den of Thieves from earlier this year, which took in over $15 million. Even last year’s costly flop Geostorm still managed to make nearly $14 million.

I don’t see that kind of performance here, but I do think Killer could top double digits. On the other hand, it could debut on pace with something like Operation Finale from August. That action thriller didn’t even make $8 million over the long Labor Day frame.

This could be a bit high, but I’ve learned to spot Butler a couple million lately. I’ll say a gross between $10-$11 million is the likely scenario.

Hunter Killer opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million

For my Johnny English Strikes Again prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/17/johnny-english-strikes-again-box-office-prediction/

For my Indivisible prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/22/indivisible-box-office-prediction/

Den of Thieves Box Office Prediction

Den of Thieves hopes to steal away some box office bucks next Friday. The heist thriller is headlined by Gerard Butler with a supporting cast including 50 Cent, O’Shea Jackson Jr., and Pablo Schreiber. Christian Gudegast, who wrote the screenplay for Butler’s sequel London Has Fallen, directs.

Butler’s box office drawing power has been mixed since he broke out in 2007’s 300. Films ending in the words “has fallen” have performed well, as have The Bounty Hunter and Law Abiding Citizen. Others like Gamer and Gods of Egypt have not.

Thieves doesn’t look like a candidate to be a breakout. Action competition is a factor as 12 Strong opens the same day and Proud Mary and The Commuter will be in their sophomore frames.

I’ll predict this struggles to open in double digits and misses the mark.

Den of Thieves opening weekend prediction: $6.1 million

For my 12 Strong prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/10/12-strong-box-office-prediction/

Geostorm Box Office Prediction

Next weekend we will find out if Geostorm is a direct hit or disaster at the box office… or somewhere in the middle. The disaster pic marks the directorial debut of Dean Devlin, known most for producing efforts from Roland Emmerich, including Stargate, Independence Day and its sequel, and 1998’s Godzilla. Gerard Butler headlines a cast that features Ed Harris, Abbie Cornish, Jim Sturgess, Andy Garcia, and Richard Schiff.

The film was originally scheduled by Warner Bros for release over a year and a half ago. That kind of delay usually doesn’t inspire confidence. There are also movies debuting against it that could siphon some audience away, including Only the Brave and The Snowman. 

I’ll predict Geostorm doesn’t even reach the teens for a muted start.

Geostorm opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million

For my Boo 2! A Madea Halloween prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/11/boo-2-a-madea-halloween-box-office-prediction/

For my Only the Brave prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/11/only-the-brave-box-office-prediction/

For my The Snowman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/12/the-snowman-box-office-prediction/

London Has Fallen Box Office Prediction

In 2013, there was a showdown of terrorism at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave pics between Olympus Has Fallen and Roland Emmerich’s White House Down. It is the latter that was expected to win the contest, but it didn’t turn out that way. Olympus debuted to $30.3 million on its way to a $98M domestic haul in the spring while its competitor opened at $24.8 million with a disappointing $73M overall gross.

While we won’t see Channing Tatum and Jamie Foxx in White House Down Again, we do have London Has Fallen out next weekend. The sequel returns Gerard Butler’s Secret Service agent, Aaron Eckhart’s POTUS, Melissa Leo’s Secretary of Defense and the soothing sounds of Morgan Freeman as the Speaker of the House alongside new cast members Angela Bassett and Jackie Earle Haley.

Olympus was well liked by critics and audiences, though I’m not totally confident that a follow-up is being clamored for. I have doubts that it will match the $30M achieved by its predecessor and it probably won’t reach its reported $105 million budget domestically. I’ll say a premiere in the lower to mid 20s is the safest bet.

London Has Fallen opening weekend prediction: $24.6 million

For my Zootopia prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/zootopia-box-office-prediction/

For my Whiskey Tango Foxtrot prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/whiskey-tango-foxtrot-box-office-prediction/

For my The Other Side of the Door prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/the-other-side-of-the-door-box-office-prediction/