Tag: Gemini Man

November 1-3 Box Office Predictions

The November box office kicks off with Arnold Schwarzenegger’s signature character back in theaters and three other newcomers vying for attention. In addition to Terminator: Dark Fate, we have the historical biopic Harriet, animated comedy Arctic Dogs, and Edward Norton’s period piece crime drama Motherless Brooklyn. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/22/terminator-dark-fate-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/26/harriet-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/23/arctic-dogs-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/23/motherless-brooklyn-box-office-prediction/

I’ll begin with the low hanging fruit that I don’t expect to place in the top five. Dogs comes from the upstart Entertainment Studios, which has no track record with family fare. My $4.5 million forecast reflects its lack of visibility among kiddos and their parents. Brooklyn was looked at as a potential awards contender before festival screenings and its mixed reaction killed that notion. Premiering in a smallish 1250 theaters, I’m projecting a meager $3.2 million.

There is little doubt that Dark Fate (reuniting the former California Governor with his Terminator 2: Judgment Day costars Linda Hamilton and Edward Furlong) will top the charts, but its range of possibility is the real question mark. My high 30s estimate gives it a so-so start that outdoes 2015 predecessor Genisys.

It was a photo finish last weekend between Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and Joker. However, even though Arnold serves as more direct competition for the latter, I expect Joker will experience a lower decline than Evil and maintain its #2 standing for the third frame in a row.

Like Brooklyn, Harriet also lost its hoped for Oscar luster once reviews came out. My mid single digits projection gives it a slight edge in fourth over The Addams Family.

And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Terminator: Dark Fate 

Predicted Gross: $38.1 million

2. Joker

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

3. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

4. Harriet 

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

5. The Addams Family 

Predicted Gross: $7 million

Box Office Results (October 25-27)

It doesn’t get much closer than this as Disney edged out Warner Bros for supremacy with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil clinging to #1 at $19.3 million, just under my $20.4 million prediction. The underperforming sequel stands at $66 million.

The supremely over performing Joker was second with $19.2 million, just over my $18.6 million projection for a tally of $277 million.

The Addams Family held up well and placed third with $12 million (I said $11.2 million). Total is $73 million.

Just behind in fourth and dropping hard in weekend #2 was Zombieland: Double Tap with $11.8 million. I went higher at $13.8 million. The two week earnings are $47 million.

The weekend’s highest newcomer was horror pic Countdown, rounding out the top five with $8.8 million (not hitting my $10.3 million take).

Black and Blue was sixth, premiering with $8.3 million. I didn’t give it enough credit with my $4.8 million estimate.

Finally, the long delayed The Current War was ninth with a dim $2.6 million. It did manage to build upon my $1.7 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… I’ll be back!

2019 Oscar Predictions: October 25th Edition

My latest round of Oscar predictions brings the following developments:

  • Little Women has held industry screenings and greatly improved its chances at multiple nominations. It’s back in my predicted ten Best Picture contenders and that’s bad news for Ford v Ferrari.
  • Speaking of Ferrari, it was announced that Christian Bale will contend for Best Actor and not supporting, which is where I’ve had him predicted for weeks. This designation significantly decreases his shot and I have him ranked in 8th. The benefactor in Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe for The Lighthouse.
  • Back to Little Women. The standout is said to be Florence Pugh, so I now have her down for Supporting Actress, knocking out Shuzhen Zhou in The Farewell.
  • Speaking of The Farewell, my fifth spot in Actress continues to change as that picture’s Awkwafina slides to sixth with Alfre Woodard (Clemency) in.
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood nabs the #1 slot in Picture over The Irishman. It’s a razor thin margin.

Let’s get to it!

BEST PICTURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 2)

2. The Irishman (PR: 1)

3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

4. Parasite (PR: 3)

5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

6. 1917 (PR: 5)

7. Bombshell (PR: 9)

8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)

9. Little Women (PR: 12)

10. Joker (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

11. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

12. The Farewell (PR: 11)

13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)

14. Waves (PR: 14)

15. Richard Jewell (PR: 15)

BEST DIRECTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 2)

4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)

5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

8. Jay Roach, Bombshell (PR: 10)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

10. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lulu Wang, The Farewell

Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory 

BEST ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)

3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)

5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)

8. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting)

9. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)

10. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems 

BEST ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)

2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 2)

3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 3)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)

5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 7)

8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)

9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)

10. Isabelle Huppert, Frankie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)

3. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 8)

4. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)

5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 5)

7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 6)

9. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)

10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Meryl Streep, Little Women 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 4)

4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 3)

5. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)

7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 8)

8. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 9)

9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)

10. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (moved to lead)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)

3. Little Women (PR: 6)

4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)

5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker (PR: 5)

7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)

8. Judy (PR: 8)

9. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)

10. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)

3. Parasite (PR: 3)

4. The Farewell (PR: 4)

5. Bombshell (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pain and Glory (PR: 8)

7. Waves (PR: 6)

8. 1917 (PR: 7)

9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)

10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Booksmart 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parasite (PR: 1)

2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)

3. Les Miserables (PR: 4)

4. Those Who Remained (PR: 6)

5. Monos (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Atlantics (PR: 3)

7. Beanpole (PR: 7)

8. And Then We Danced (PR: 8)

9. A White, White Day (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Traitor (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Papicha

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)

2. Frozen II (PR: 2)

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)

4. Weathering with You (PR: 5)

5. I Lost My Body (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Missing Link (PR: 4)

7. Abominable (PR: 7)

8. Funan (PR: 9)

9. Okko’s Inn (PR: 10)

10. Klaus (PR: 8)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. American Factory (PR: 2)

2. Apollo 11 (PR: 1)

3. One Child Nation (PR: 4)

4. The Cave (PR: 5)

5. Maiden (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)

7. Diego Maradona (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Knock Down the House (PR: 10)

9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 7)

10. Western Stars (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Aquarela

Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story By Martin Scorsese 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 2)

2. 1917 (PR: 1)

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

4. A Hidden Life (PR: Not Ranked)

5. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)

7. Joker (PR: 9)

8. Parasite (PR: 4)

9. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Marriage Story 

Jojo Rabbit 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

2. Little Women (PR: 3)

3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)

4. Downton Abbey (PR: 1)

5. Rocketman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Irishman (PR: 7)

7. Judy (PR: 6)

8. 1917 (PR: 9)

9. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Aladdin 

Jojo Rabbit 

BEST FILM EDITING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 5)

5. 1917 (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parasite (PR: 6)

7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)

9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joker (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Ad Astra 

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bombshell (PR: 2)

2. The Irishman (PR: 1)

3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)

4. Judy (PR: 3)

5. Joker (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rocketman (PR: 9)

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)

8. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)

9. Little Women (PR: 5)

10. Cats (PR: 10)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)

3. Little Women (PR: 3)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

5. A Hidden Life (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)

7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)

8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

9. Joker (PR: 9)

10. Ad Astra 

Dropped Out:

Waves

BEST ORIGINAL SONG 

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)

2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)

3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: Not Ranked)

4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)

5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 6)

7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 5)

8. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 4)

9. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell (PR: 8)

10. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

”Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 4)

3. Little Women (PR: 5)

4. 1917 (PR: 2)

5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Cats (PR: 6)

8. Downton Abbey (PR: 10)

9. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Ford v Ferrari 

Aladdin 

BEST SOUND EDITING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

3. 1917 (PR: 1)

4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 8)

5. Ad Astra (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Irishman (PR: 7)

7. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)

8. Rocketman (PR: 4)

9. Cats (PR: 9)

10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Lion King 

BEST SOUND MIXING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

3. 1917 (PR: 2)

4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)

5. Ad Astra (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rocketman (PR: 4)

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)

8. The Irishman (PR: 8)

9. Cats (PR: 7)

10. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Lion King 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)

2. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)

3. The Irishman (PR: 1)

4. The Lion King (PR: 4)

5. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)

7. Ad Astra (PR: 8)

8. Gemini Man (PR: 7)

9. 1917 (PR: 9)

10. Dumbo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Godzilla: King of the Monsters 

And that equates to the following films getting the following number of nominations:

10 Nominations

The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

8 Nominations

1917, Marriage Story 

7 Nominations

Little Women 

5 Nominations

Bombshell 

4 Nominations

Parasite, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes 

3 Nominations

Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Joker

2 Nominations

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, A Hidden Life, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Rocketman 

1 Nomination

Alita: Battle Angel, American Factory, Apollo 11, Cats, The Cave, Clemency, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, Harriet, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Those Who Remained, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You

October 25-27 Box Office Predictions

The end of October at the box office looks to be a rather quiet one as holdovers should dominate. There are three newcomers to consider: techie horror pic Countdown, action thriller Black and Blue, and long delayed historical drama The Current War. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/16/countdown-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/17/black-and-blue-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/20/the-current-war-box-office-prediction/

Let’s get Current out of the way first, shall we? Theater count is still uncertain and that might change my estimate, but my measly $1.7 million prediction leaves the former Weinstein Company property well outside of the top five.

Same goes for Blue with my $4.8 million projection as I don’t see much buzz for it either. Countdown should have no trouble being the largest grossing newcomer, but my barely double digits forecast has it rounding out the top five.

I whiffed on predicting that Joker would hold onto the top position for the third frame in a row over Maleficent: Mistress of Evil. While Disney claimed the #1 spot, it did so in an unimpressive fashion (more on that below). I do think Evil and Joker will be closer this weekend, but I’ll give Angelina a slight edge over Joaquin this time around.

Zombieland should stay third with The Addams Family in fourth. Due to the upcoming Halloween frame, the latter may experience the smallest decline of the bunch.

And with that, my vision of the weekend ahead:

1. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 

Predicted Gross: $20.4 million

2. Joker

Predicted Gross: $18.6 million

3. Zombieland: Double Tap 

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

4. The Addams Family

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

5. Countdown 

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

Box Office Results (October 18-20)

Disney’s streak of live action renderings of their animated catalog topping the charts didn’t end this weekend as Maleficent: Mistress of Evil was first with results that weren’t magical. It grossed $36.9 million and while that did exceed my $32.3 million prediction, that’s way under the $69 million achieved by its 2014 predecessor.

Joker slipped to second and lost more volume than I anticipated with $29.2 million compared to my $34.2 million forecast. It’s up to an astonishing $247 million and is already #9 on the list of biggest R rated earners.

Zombieland: Double Tap matched most expectations in third with $26.8 million, shooting past my $23.7 million projection. That’s a slight improvement over the near $25 million that its 2009 predecessor made, but not really when accounting for inflation.

The Addams Family was fourth with $16.3 million (I said $18.4 million) for a two-week tally of $57 million.

Will Smith’s flop Gemini Man was fifth and tumbled nearly 60% in its sophomore frame to $8.3 million, just below my $9.4 million take. Total is $36 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

2019 Oscar Predictions: October 17th Edition

My weekly Oscar predictions this Thursday brings a whole lot of changes in that I’m  including every category covering feature films! Additionally, there’s now only 15 listed possibilities in Best Picture and ten in all other races.

For this format, my projections show The Irishman garnering the most nominations with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, and Marriage Story not far behind. Besides the cosmetic changes, here’s what else has transpired in the past seven days:

  • Bombshell, the true life of Fox News and the downfall of Roger Ailes, had its first industry screenings. The film immediately vaulted itself into contention in Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay (as well as Makeup & Hairstyling).
  • My inclusion of Bombshell in Best Picture means The Farewell has been taken out with The Two Popes and Joker as other on the bubble entries.
  • Not only does Charlize Theron’s work in Bombshell enter my Best Actress projections, but she comes in at #2. That drops Cynthia Erivo in Harriet out of the top five for the first time.
  • Margot Robbie’s performance in the picture puts her in and she bumps… Margot Robbie in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. 
  • In non Bombshell news, South Korean import Parasite had the best per screen average of 2019 in limited release. It’s the best reviewed movie of the year and its numbers game improves in Picture and Director this week.

BEST PICTURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Parasite (PR: 6)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)

5. 1917 (PR: 4)

6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)

7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

8. The Two Popes (PR: 9)

9. Bombshell (PR: 18)

10. Joker (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Farewell (PR: 8)

12. Little Women (PR: 12)

13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)

14. Waves (PR: 13)

15. Richard Jewell (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Pain and Glory 

Judy

Just Mercy 

A Hidden Life 

Rocketman 

The Report 

Booksmart 

The Good Liar 

Dark Waters 

Ad Astra 

BEST DIRECTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 4)

3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 3)

5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)

8. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 7)

9. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 13)

10. Jay Roach, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes 

Greta Gerwig, Little Women 

Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 

Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life

Todd Phillips, Joker

Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell

BEST ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)

3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 5)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)

8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)

9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)

10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy 

Ian McKellen, The Good Liar 

Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters 

Brad Pitt, Ad Astra 

Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse 

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)

2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 7)

3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)

5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 3)

8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)

9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)

10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Isabelle Huppert, Frankie

Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart 

Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts 

Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell

Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)

4. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

5. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)

7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)

8. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 9)

9. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 13)

10. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Sterling K. Brown, Waves

Alan Alda, Marriage Story 

Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy 

Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit 

Zack Gottsagen, The Peanut Butter Falcon 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 12)

4. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 3)

5. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 6)

7. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

8. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 9)

9. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 8)

10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit 

Jennifer Hudson, Cats

Nicole Kidman, Bombshell 

Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory 

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My Name 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)

3. The Two Popes (PR: 3)

4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)

5. Joker (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Little Women (PR: 6)

7. Just Mercy (PR: 8)

8. Judy (PR: 7)

9. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)

10. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Good Liar 

Dark Waters 

Hustlers

Toy Story 4

Luce 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Parasite (PR: 3)

4. The Farewell (PR: 4)

5. Bombshell (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Waves (PR: 6)

7. 1917 (PR: 8)

8. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)

9. Booksmart (PR: 9)

10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

The Report

Honey Boy 

Dolemite Is My Name 

Knives Out 

Rocketman

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parasite 

2. Pain and Glory 

3. Atlantics 

4. Les Miserables 

5. Monos

Other Possibilities:

6. Those Who Remained 

7. Beanpole

8. And Then We Danced 

9. Papicha

10. The Traitor 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Toy Story 4

2. Frozen II

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 

4. Missing Link

5. Weathering with You

Other Possibilities:

6. I Lost My Body

7. Abominable 

8. Klaus

9. Funan 

10. Okko’s Inn 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Apollo 11

2. American Factory 

3. Maiden

4. One Child Nation

5. The Cave

Other Possibilities:

6. The Biggest Little Farm

7. The Edge of Democracy 

8. Aquarela

9. Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story By Martin Scorsese 

10. Knock Down the House 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917

2. The Irishman 

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

4. Parasite 

5. The Lighthouse 

Other Possibilities:

6. Ad Astra

7. Ford v Ferrari

8. Marriage Story 

9. Joker

10. Jojo Rabbit 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Downton Abbey 

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

3. Little Women

4. Dolemite Is My Name 

5. Rocketman 

Other Possibilities:

6. Judy

7. The Irishman 

8. Aladdin 

9. 1917

10. Jojo Rabbit 

BEST EDITING

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

3. 1917

4. Ford v Ferrari

5. Marriage Story 

Other Possibilities:

6. Parasite 

7. Jojo Rabbit 

8. Joker

9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

10. Ad Astra 

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman 

2. Bombshell

3. Judy

4. Dolemite Is My Name 

5. Little Women 

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

8. The Aeronauts 

9. Rocketman 

10. Cats

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

3. Little Women 

4. Marriage Story 

5. Jojo Rabbit 

Other Possibilities:

6. The Aeronauts 

7. Ford v Ferrari 

8. A Hidden Life 

9. Joker

10. Waves 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II

2. “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” from Rocketman 

3. “Stand Up” from Harriet 

4. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4

5. “Speechless” from Aladdin 

Other Possibilities:

6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4

7. “Spirit” from The Lion King 

8. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell 

9. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn 

10. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

2. 1917

3. Jojo Rabbit 

4. The Irishman 

5. Little Women

Other Possibilities:

6. Cats

7. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

8. Ford v Ferrari

9. Aladdin

10. Downton Abbey 

BEST SOUND EDITING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917

2. Ford v Ferrari

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

4. Rocketman

5. Avengers: Endgame 

Other Possibilities:

6. Ad Astra

7. The Irishman 

8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

9. Cats

10. The Lion King 

BEST SOUND MIXING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ford v Ferrari

2. 1917

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

4. Rocketman 

5. Ad Astra 

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Endgame 

7. Cats

8. The Irishman 

9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

10. The Lion King 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman 

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

3. Avengers: Endgame 

4. The Lion King 

5. Alita: Battle Angel 

Other Possibilities:

6. The Aeronauts 

7. Gemini Man 

8. Ad Astra 

9. 1917

10. Godzilla: King of the Monsters 

So here’s I have the nominations playing out as far as numbers with each film:

10 Nominations 

The Irishman 

9 Nominations 

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

8 Nominations 

1917, Marriage Story 

5 Nominations 

Bombshell, Ford v Ferrari, Little Women, Parasite

4 Nominations 

Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes 

3 Nominations 

The Farewell, Joker

2 Nominations 

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Judy, Toy Story 4

1 Nomination

Ad Astra, Aladdin, Alita: Battle Angel, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, The Cave, Downton Abbey, Harriet, Hustlers, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Les Miserables, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Maiden, Missing Link, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Weathering with You

October 18-20 Box Office Predictions

Two high profile sequels look to displace Joker from its two-week perch atop the charts. Disney’s Maleficent: Mistress of Evil with Angelina Jolie and Zombieland: Double Tap, reuniting Woody Harrelson, Emma Stone, Bill Murray, and others after a decade are the contenders. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/08/maleficent-mistress-of-evil-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/09/zombieland-double-tap-box-office-prediction/

My estimate for Maleficent puts it considerably behind the $69 million earned by its 2014 predecessor. It can be dubious to bet against Disney, but I just don’t see the excitement for this particular follow-up. There’s also family competition from the second weekend of The Addams Family, which performed well out of the gate.

I have Double Tap coming in a million dollars behind 2009’s part one. This sequel does stand a shot at rising above my projection, but a solid third frame for Joker could eat into its potential.

Speaking of, Joker continued its record setting October pace with easily the largest sophomore haul of the month in history. If it drops in the mid to high 30s, I believe it edges Mistress for top billing.

Will Smith’s Gemini Man flopped and a drop of over 50% appears likely. That would place it in high single digits for fifth place.

Here’s my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Joker

Predicted Gross: $34.2 million

2. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 

Predicted Gross: $32.3 million

3. Zombieland: Double Tap 

Predicted Gross: $23.7 million

4. The Addams Family 

Predicted Gross: $18.4 million

5. Gemini Man 

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

Box Office Results (October 11-13)

As mentioned, Joker dominated the weekend, dipping a meager 41% for $55.8 million (towering over my $44.8 million forecast). That brings its tally to $193 million with over $300 million in its sights.

The animated version of The Addams Family was strong in second with $30.3 million, ahead of my $27 million take. With Halloween around the corner, expect sturdy holds throughout the month.

Gemini Man fell victim to mostly poor reviews in third with $20.5 million, a bit under my $22.8 million prediction. I expect both versions of Will Smith to fade quickly from theaters.

Abominable was fourth with $6 million (I said $7 million). It’s earned a so-so $47 million.

Downton Abbey rounded out the top five at $4.8 million compared to my $4.4 million projection for $82 million total.

Lastly, the panned Adam DeVine comedy Jexi languished in ninth with only $3.1 million (I went with $3.5 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

October 11-13 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (10/10): My Joker estimate has risen from $39.8 million to $44.8 million. My   Addams Family estimate is up from $21.7 million to $27 million. My Gemini Man projection has dropped from $24.8 million to $22.8 million.

After a record setting October beginning, Joker looks to repeat in the top spot with more significant competition in its sophomore frame. The contenders for the throne are Ang Lee’s action thriller Gemini Man starring Will Smith and the animated version of The Addams Family. There’s also the Adam DeVine technological comedy Jexi, which will be lucky to hit the top five. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/01/gemini-man-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/01/the-addams-family-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/02/jexi-box-office-prediction/

I am on the lower end of expectations with Gemini and Addams. My respective projections in the mid 20s and low 20s puts them in second and third positions behind Joaquin Phoenix’s villainous character.

So how will Joker fare in the follow-up weekend? Looking to some decent comps, both Logan and Venom fell 56% in their second outings. It seems reasonable that this will drop that much. I don’t see it falling the 68% of, say, Watchmen. I’ll say 58-60% is most feasible.

Abominable looks to place fourth and my $3.5 million forecast for Jexi puts it behind Downton Abbey in the five spot race.

And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Joker

Predicted Gross: $44.8 million

2. The Addams Family 

Predicted Gross: $27 million

3. Gemini Man

Predicted Gross: $22.8 million

4. Abominable

Predicted Gross: $7 million

5. Downton Abbey

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

Box Office Results (October 4-6)

Joker decimated the all-time October premiere record with a sizzling $96.2 million, rising above my $89.6 million projection. The Warner Bros stand-alone comic book pic was not affected by various controversies that preceded it and audience curiosity was clearly at a fever pitch.

Abominable dropped to second place with $11.9 million, in line with my $12.5 million prediction for a two-week tally of $37 million. That’s on the smaller end of the spectrum when it comes to Dreamworks Animation’s early autumn offerings.

Downton Abbey was third with $7.9 million (I said $8 million) for a bountiful $73 million haul thus far.

Hustlers was fourth with $6.3 million, just under my $6.7 million. The Jennifer Lopez hit is nearing the century mark at $91 million.

I incorrectly had It Chapter Two outside of the high five, but it was fifth with $5.3 million to float its gross to $202 million.

Renee Zellweger Oscar hopeful Judy expanded its theater count to over 1400 and was sixth with $4.5 million. I had it making a tad more at $5.9 million. Total is $9 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Addams Family Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (10/10): My estimate has risen from $21.7 million to $26.9 million

Snapping into theaters over a half century after the TV series and over a quarter century after the two film versions of that show, an animated version of The Addams Family debuts next weekend. Originally based on the Charles Addams comics, this iteration of the macabre clan sounds like something Tim Burton should have his fingerprints all over. And indeed, he was once attached to direct it. However, it’s Conrad Vernon and Greg Tiernan (who last made the R rated Seth Rogen/Evan Goldberg toon Sausage Party) shepherding the project. Voices of the family include Oscar Isaac, Charlize Theron, Chloe Grace Moretz, Finn Wolfhard, Nick Kroll, Snoop Dogg, Martin Short, Catherine O’Hara and Bette Midler, in addition to Allison Janney and Elsie Fisher.

Attempting to reach a kiddie audience pre Halloween (and a week before Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is out), it could be a somewhat tough sell for youngsters unfamiliar with the source material. That applies to the small screen 1960s version and the 1990s big screen one. In fact, this may not hit the $24 million achieved by 1991’s first live action Addams out of the gate (1993 sequel Addams Family Values didn’t fare as well).

I do envision this managing a debut of over $20 million, but perhaps not by much. That would likely put it in third place behind Joker and Gemini Man.

The Addams Family opening weekend prediction: $26.9 million

For my Gemini Man prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/01/gemini-man-box-office-prediction/

For my Jexi prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/02/jexi-box-office-prediction/

Gemini Man Box Office Prediction

Arriving just behind his biggest domestic and worldwide grosser Aladdin and just ahead of his long in development sequel Bad Boys for Life, Will Smith headlines the sci fi action thriller Gemini Man next weekend. Itself a project that’s been in the planning for over two decades, double Oscar winner Ang Lee directs this tale of Smith’s aging hitman battling a youthful version of himself. Costars include Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Clive Owen, and Benedict Wong.

Most of the pic’s publicity has centered around its visual effects and de-aging process with the younger Fresh Prince. Yet the Rotten Tomatoes score is anything but fresh at a troubling 22%. That won’t help with word of mouth for Gemini and I believe that could rule out a start north of $30 million (where some projections are).

Despite his recent exposure in Disney’s billion dollar blockbuster and plenty of success for Smith in this genre, I’ll predict this gets off to a middling debut in the low to mid 20s range.

Gemini Man opening weekend prediction: $22.8 million

For my The Addams Family prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/01/the-addams-family-box-office-prediction/

For my Jexi prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/02/jexi-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Gemini Man

Sporting a lowly 29% Rotten Tomatoes ranking prior to its October 11 release, Ang Lee’s Gemini Man is certainly no candidate for Best Picture recognition like the director’s previous works Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Brokeback Mountain, and Life of Pi. The sci fi action thriller casts Will Smith in an effects heavy experience where the actor plays an aging hitman who must battle a younger version of himself.

While it’s no surprise that the pic won’t contend for top line prizes, Gemini has always been eyed as a possibility for Visual Effects. The 3D high frame per second look is one employed by Lee in his last film Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. That drama was seen as awards bait before poor reviews sunk its viability.

Visual Effects nowadays is a race where there’s usually no shortage of contenders. In 2019, we have the upcoming Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker in addition to The Irishman, The Lion King, Avengers: Endgame, and Smith’s own summer blockbuster Aladdin. I believe Gemini could still sneak in the category, but its own negative critical reaction might derail it. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…