Oscar Predictions: Deep Water

Adrian Lyne’s erotic thriller Deep Water was supposed to surface in theaters way back in November 2020 before its COVID delays. It marks the director’s first feature in 20 years since Unfaithful. The multiplex release was scrapped and a year and a half later, it’s slated for a Hulu streaming debut on Friday. The cast includes former couple Ben Affleck and Ana de Armas along with Tracy Letts, Lil Rel Howery, Dash Mihok, Finn Wittrock, and Kristen Connolly.

The embargo is up. Some critics have called it a worthy throwback to 80s/90s era psychosexual dramas. Others aren’t as kind as evidenced by the 47% Rotten Tomatoes rating.

Lyne’s previous efforts have yielded awards attention. 1983’s Flashdance garnered 4 down the line nominations with a win for that title song. 1987’s Fatal Attraction nabbed six including Picture, Actress (Glenn Close), and Supporting Actress (Anne Archer). Diane Lane received a Best Actress mention for the aforementioned Unfaithful two decades back.

So it’s not unreasonable to think of Lyne’s work as Oscar bait. It just won’t happen here as Water‘s critical reaction won’t give this any oxygen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Before I Fall Box Office Prediction

Looking for the teen dramatic thriller version of Groundhog Day? It appears you can find it next weekend when Before I Fall debuts. Based on a 2010 YA bestseller by Lauren Oliver, the pic centers on a teen (Zoey Deutch) living the final day of her life repeatedly. Costars include Halston Sage, Logan Miller, and Jennifer Beals (yep, the star of Flashdance!).

Fall premiered at the Sundance Film Festival to some positive reviews and it sits at 64%  currently on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, the Open Roads release isn’t expected to rise much with audiences. The marketing campaign has been rather low key and I suspect a mid to possibly high single digits opening is the probable result.

Before I Fall opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million

For my Logan prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/23/logan-box-office-prediction/

For my The Shack prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/24/the-shack-box-office-prediction/