Tag: Finding Nemo

Inside Out 2 Box Office Prediction

Disney/Pixar hope for a reversal of recent fortunes when Inside Out 2 arrives in theaters June 14th. A sequel to the 2015 megahit Animated Feature Oscar winner, Kelsey Mann takes over directorial duties from Pete Docter. Returning voices include Amy Poehler, Phyllis Smith, Lewis Black, Diane Lane, and Kyle MacLachlan. Replacing Bill Hader from the original is Tony Hale while Liza Lapira, Maya Hawke, Ayo Edebiri, Adéle Exarchopoulos, Paul Walter Hauser, and Kensington Tallman as the now teenage Riley join the cast.

Nine summers ago, the original made $90 million in its premiere frame with an eventual domestic tally of $356 million. That stands as the fifth largest opening of all time for Pixar and the sixth heftiest overall final take.

As mentioned, the studio has dealt with its own emotional rollercoasters as of late. 2022’s Lightyear was a high profile flop with a lowly (for Pixar) $118 million total. Last summer, Elemental fared better with $154 million while that’s still a ways from their typical numbers.

This sequel should brighten their emotions. Part 1 is well-regarded and family audiences should be primed for a second helping. Estimates have this making around what the predecessor accomplished out of the gate. It might manage slightly more. Each Toy Story, for instance, improved with the first weekend figures. Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory dwarfed the starts of their precursors.

I’ll go glass half full and say this just manages to outdo the original while not reaching nine digits in its first three days.

Inside Out 2 opening weekend prediction: $92.4 million

Oscar Watch: Incredibles 2

This should come as no surprise, but reviews out today for Incredibles 2 (out Friday) are pretty encouraging. The sequel from Pixar/Disney arrives 14 years after the original, which stands as one of the vaunted studio’s high marks. The current Rotten Tomatoes score for part 2 stands at 97%.

As I would with any Pixar offering, we turn to its Oscar viability and that takes us on a trip down memory lane. The Best Animated Feature category at the Academy Awards has been around since 2001. That means the first three Pixar tales (Toy Story, A Bug’s Life, Toy Story 2) existed in a time when the category did not. I would say all three would have been nominated had the race been around (and the Toy stories likely both would have been victorious).

Since 2001, Pixar pics have won 9 times and they are as follows:

2003: Finding Nemo

2004: The Incredibles

2007: Ratatouille

2008: Wall-E

2009: Up

2010: Toy Story 3

2012: Brave

2015: Inside Out

2017: Coco

There have been two occasions where a Pixar movie was nominated and lost. In 2001, Monsters Inc. couldn’t get over Shrek. In 2006, Happy Feet took the prize over Cars. 

Five Pixar features have failed to garner a nomination. Four were sequels. The only outlier is 2015’s The Good Dinosaur. The others:

2011: Cars 2

2013: Monsters University

2016: Finding Dory

2017: Cars 3

Which brings us back to Incredibles 2. So where does this stand? Note that this sequel is the only one to a predecessor that won before. And seeing that early reviews are overwhelmingly glowing (even though some say it doesn’t match #1), I’ll predict this Pixar sequels makes the final five come next year. The director, Brad Bird, is also responsible for two of the Pixar statues (The Incredibles and Ratatouille). There will certainly be competition (Isle of Dogs was already released and seems assured a spot) and its possibility to win is still a giant question mark. Yet these superheroes seem primed for a return engagement down the red carpet.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3lhNu7ci5g

Incredibles 2 Box Office Prediction

Disney/Pixar is back on the summer scene as Incredibles 2 blasts into theaters next weekend. The superhero comedy sequel is the follow-up to the studio’s sixth blockbuster that opened in November 2004. Fourteen years later, this is Pixar’s 20th assured mega grosser. Brad Bird, who made the original, is back in the director’s seat after shepherding live-action pics Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol and Tomorrowland. Returning voices from the original cast include Craig T. Nelson, Holly Hunter, Samuel L. Jackson, Sarah Vowell, and John Ratzenberger. Fresh voices for part 2 include Jonathan Banks, Bob Odenkirk, Catherine Keener, Isabella Rossellini, and Sophia Bush.

The question mark here is not whether Incredibles 2 is another huge hit for Pixar (it will be). Rather, the question is whether it sets the all-time opening record for the Mouse Factory’s multi-billion dollar subsidiary. In order to do so, it would need to surpass the current one held by 2016’s Finding Dory. That sequel earned $135 million in the same weekend two summers ago.

For some context, the predecessor to Dory (2003’s Finding Nemo) made $70 million out of the gate with an eventual gross of $339 million. As for the first Incredibles? It did exactly the same in its first weekend ($70 million) and went on to earn $261 million domestically. Of course, most Pixar titles take on long shelf lives and introduce themselves to a new generation of youngsters. The Incredibles is no exception and stands as one of the most appreciated studio offerings.

I see no reason why Incredibles 2 wouldn’t perform very similarly to Dory. That said, I’m reluctant to project that it will get to $150 million plus or anything in that stratosphere. I’ll say this just manages to achieve a personal Pixar high. In doing so, just as Nemo and Incredibles got to the same number in weekend 1, so essentially will the sequels.

Incredibles 2 opening weekend prediction: $138.1 million

For my Tag prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/05/tag-box-office-prediction/

For my Superfly prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/07/superfly-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Coco

Ahead of its Thanksgiving weekend stateside debut, Pixar’s Coco has screened for critics and as is par for the course for the studio, reviews are exceedingly positive. The concept of the latest creation is centered around Mexico’s Day of the Dead holiday. Early critical reaction suggests it brings Pixar’s typical blend of heart and humor. Lee Unkrich, who co-directed Monsters Inc. and Finding Nemo and branched out solo with Toy Story 3 is behind the camera. Voices included Anthony Gonzalez, Gael Garcia Bernal, Benjamin Bratt, and Edward James Olmos.

Since 2001 when the Academy created the Best Animated Feature category, Pixar has won eight times. The most recent was two years ago for Inside Out. So let’s get this out of the way right now – Coco is unquestionably the major front runner not just for a nomination in that race, but to win.

The real question is whether or not it stands a chance at sneaking into the Best Picture race. Only two of the studio’s works have – Up in 2009 and Toy Story 3 the following year. The answer is probably not. While notices out this weekend are strong, it will likely follow the normal path of contending only in the animated portion of the evening’s festivities.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Finding Dory

When it come to their movies getting nominated for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars, Pixar is in a class by itself. This specific category was created in 2001. Of the 15 pictures that have won, 8 have come from Pixar. They include 2004’s The Incredibles, 2007’s Ratatouille, 2008’s Wall-E, 2009’s Up, 2010’s Toy Story 3, 2012’s Brave, and 2015’s Inside Out.

And the first Pixar pic to claim the prize? 2003’s Finding Nemo and its long in the works sequel Finding Dory is out Friday. Will Dory become the 9th studio entry to take home the gold statue? After all, it has a glowing 94% Rotten Tomatoes score and could be the summer’s biggest hit.

Well… Not so fast. It’s also worth noting that in 2013 and 2014, two traditional Disney animated flicks took the Oscar with Frozen and Big Hero 6. While Finding Dory will unquestionably score a nomination, its main competition appears now to be Zootopia. That Disney animated traditional title, released in March, became a box office phenomenon itself (a billion worldwide) and holds an even better 98% RT rating. I would maintain that the animals of Zootopia currently hold the edge, with Dory swimming a bit behind it.

http://youtu.be/TUYgWVmHTUU

 

Finding Dory Box Office Prediction

Thirteen years after the original made a major splash at the box office, Finding Dory hits theaters next weekend and looks to reinvigorate a somewhat slumping marketplace. The Disney/Pixar release is, of course, the sequel to 2003’s now classic Finding Nemo. Director Andrew Stanton is back, as are the voices of Ellen DeGeneres and Albert Brooks. Plenty of other familiar faces make their voices heard here – Diane Keaton, Bill Hader, Idris Elba, Eugene Levy, Kate McKinnon, Ty Burrell, Ed O’Neill, and Dominic West among them.

The summer of 2016 has seen a host of sequels not matching up to their originals. Some of them have been family programming, like Alice Through the Looking Glass and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows.

It is highly likely that Dory will not suffer the same fate. In fact, the real question seems to be whether or not this will score Pixar’s largest opening weekend in its now 21 year history. That honor currently belongs to another sequel, 2010’s Toy Story 3, which debuted with $110.3 million. Dory is currently said to be tracking a bit above that. I believe it will surpass that number, but probably not by much (though with the sequelitis occurring recently, I do feel a touch of nervousness with this prediction). Still, if anything can break through – it’s this.

In order for it to score the second biggest animated premiere in history, it’d need to top the $115.7 million earned by last summer’s Minions. To get to #1, Dory would have to swim past the $121.6 million gross of Shrek the Third from 2007. It’s possible that it could achieve either one of those records.

I’ll predict Dory falls below Shrek and just above Minions to earn the #2 animated debut stateside and also set the Pixar record. That would go a long ways toward washing the bad taste out of the Mouse Factory’s mouths for Looking Glass and last fall’s The Good Dinosaur, which was the first Pixar title to lose money.

Finding Dory opening weekend prediction: $117.3 million

For my Central Intelligence prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/08/central-intelligence-box-office-prediction/