As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Actress and that’s Karla Sofia Gascón for Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez. If you missed my post on Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), it’s linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Karla Sofia Gascón:
The Spanish actress has been nominated in the key quartet of precursors with the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. Playing the title character in the most nominated picture, a Gascón victory would be history making as she’s the first transgender performer nominated in the category.
The Case Against Karla Sofia Gascón:
Well… it’s voluminous but let’s start with the non-obvious. There’s been no precursor wins of note and she lost to Demi Moore (The Substance) at the Globes and Critics Choice. While she may play the titular role, her costar Zoe Saldaña has been the focus of attention in Supporting Actress. Then there’s the headline making controversy. Last month, a number of Gascón’s social media posts from a few years back resurfaced containing troubling comments. The firestorm was enough for Netflix to essentially drop any campaign for her in Best Actress and refocus all attention on its other nominations.
The Verdict:
Gascón wasn’t a real threat to win before the scandal and is even less so now.
My Case Of posts will continue with the second contender in Best Actor and that’s Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown…
Captain America: Brave New World isn’t the sole fourth franchise entry seeking viewers over the holiday weekend. Renée Zellweger returns as the title character in Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy. It premieres on Peacock stateside tomorrow and has international theatrical distribution on Friday. Michael Morris directs with Hugh Grant, Colin Firth, and Emma Thompson reprising their roles from earlier installments. Newcomers to the series are Chiwetel Ejiofor, Leo Woodall, and Isla Fisher.
Reviews are providing mostly solid marks with 86% on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic at 71. Back in 2001, Bridget Jones’s Diary earned Zellweger Academy Award and Golden Globes nods in lead Actress (she respectively lost to Halle Berry in Monster’s Ball and Nicole Kidman from Moulin Rouge!). 2004 sequel Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason saw Zellweger get another nomination at the Globes for Actress in a Musical or Comedy where she fell short to Annette Bening (Being Julia). 2016’s Bridget Jones’s Baby received no significant awards play.
I wouldn’t rule out Zellweger (a two-time Oscar winner for 2003’s Cold Mountain and 2019’s Judy) getting some attention from Globes voters, but that will depend on competition. An Academy nom seems out of reach. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The 78th edition of the BAFTAs, the U.K.’s version of the Academy Awards, occur this Sunday and it could help shape an already topsy-turvy awards season.
I’m going to give you a winner and runner-up prediction for each feature film race. I won’t spend much time pontificating as I do enough of that for the Oscars. However, it is worth noting BAFTA’s Best Film and the Academy’s Best Picture have matched just twice in the past 10 ceremonies (2020’s Nomadland, last year’s Oppenheimer). With victories at Critics Choice/PGA/DGA last weekend, Anora has anointed itself the Oscar frontrunner. And you could argue that it makes it easier not to select Sean Baker’s pic for BAFTA’s biggest prize.
That’s what I’m doing as I believe Conclave and The Brutalist could battle for BAFTA and I’m giving the slight edge to the former. We’re talking coin flip territory. Don’t get me wrong. Anora could take this and solidify its status even more so. I just have a hunch otherwise.
BAFTA/Oscar matches improve in other major races. For Director and Supporting Actress, it’s 7 out of the past 10. For Actor and Supporting Actor, it is 8 and we have 9/10 in Actress. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice have elevated Demi Moore, Adrien Brody, Zoe Saldaña, and Kieran Culkin to favorited status. The smart money is on that quartet and I’m not projecting an upset.
Here’s my rundown and I’ll have recap up Sunday!
BEST FILM
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
Predicted Winner: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Edward Berger, Conclave
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)
Predicted Winner: Demi Moore, The Substance
Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Runner-Up: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance
Predicted Winner: Anora
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Predicted Winner: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Runner-Up: Flow
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper
Predicted Winner: No Other Land
Runner-Up: Daughters
BEST FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Predicted Winner: Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: I’m Still Here
BEST CASTING
Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: Anora
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu
Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST EDITING
Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST MAKE UP & HAIR
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
Predicted Winner: The Substance
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot
Predicted Winner: The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST SOUND
Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two
Runner-Up: Wicked
BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
Predicted Winner: Better Man
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
Outstanding British Film
Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Predicted Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: Kneecap
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Predicted Winner: The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
EE Rising Star Award
Marisa Abela, Jharrel Jerome, David Jonsson, Mikey Madison, Nabhaan Rizwan
Predicted Winner: Mikey Madison
Runner-Up: Marisa Abela
And that leaves us with these pictures generating these numbers of victories:
5 Wins
Conclave
4 Wins
The Brutalist
2 Wins
Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked
1 Win
Anora (two if you count Madison’s Rising Star victory), Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kneecap, No Other Land, A Real Pain, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Director and that’s Sean Baker for Anora.
Previous Oscar Directing Nominations:
None
The Case for Sean Baker:
After winning Best Picture at PGA and Critics Choice last weekend, Anora became the frontrunner for the same prize at the Oscars. For Mr. Baker, his chances went way up after taking the Directors Guild of America (DGA) award on Saturday. For context, 21 of the 24 DGA victors in the 21st century have taken done the same from the Academy. He scored noms at BAFTA, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes.
The Case Against Sean Baker:
He lost that Golden Globe to Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) and Jon M. Chu (Wicked) was the unexpected recipient at Critics Choice. While Chu isn’t nominated for the Oscar, voters could opt for Corbet’s more epic in nature project and honor Baker in Original Screenplay. Since he is the editor of Anora, he could also win that gold statue so that’s another at bat.
The Verdict:
For quite some time, it looked like Baker would be a first-time Academy honoree in Screenplay and perhaps Screenplay only. Now he’s in contention for four in one night with Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Editing. His chances for the filmmaking competition skyrocketed after DGA.
My Case Of posts will continue with our second hopeful in Best Actress and that’s Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Yura Borisov in Sean Baker’s Anora.
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
None
The Case for Yura Borisov:
As sympathetic henchman Igor to Mikey Madison’s title character, the Russian actor has run the table with nominations in significant precursors including the Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and SAG. After a weekend in which his picture won top prizes at Critics Choice and PGA and Baker’s direction took DGA, Anora has become the Academy’s frontrunner and perhaps those coattails could sweep him in.
The Case Against Yura Borisov:
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is the Globe and Critics Choice recipient and could sweep through the season. If he doesn’t, Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) and Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) are in BP nominees as well and both possess veteran careers that could lead to an overdue feeling.
The Verdict:
A victory isn’t much of a real possibility unless he surprises at BAFTA or SAG.
My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Best Director and that’s Sean Baker for (you guessed it) Anora…
For this upcoming Valentine’s/Presidents Day weekend, Captain America: Brave New World hopes for the love from MCU fans while Paddington in Peru looks for a commanding runner-up start. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Obviously America, with Anthony Mackie donning the shield in place of Chris Evans, will easily reach first. I don’t expect it to reach anywhere near the heights of other MCU predecessors including 2016’s Captain America: Civil War. A four-day gross around $90 million seems feasible.
Paddington in Peru has already done impressive business overseas. My Friday to Monday estimate puts it in the high teens. That’s in range with the 2015 original and stronger than the 2018 sequel.
It is common for holdovers to experience small declines during this February four-day frame. Sometimes there’s even increases. I anticipate current champ Dog Man to post similar grosses to its sophomore outing (more on that below) while Mufasa may also have a minor bump. Heart Eyes could see its second weekend fortunes fall in the 25% range.
And with that, here’s my outlook on the weekend ahead and keep in mind that my figures for returning titles are for Friday-Monday:
1. Captain America: Brave New World
Predicted Gross: $78.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $90.7 million (Friday to Monday)
2. Paddington in Peru
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17 million (Friday to Monday)
3. Dog Man
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million
4. Heart Eyes
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
5. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $5 million
Box Office Results (February 7-9)
Multiplexes got defeated about as bad as the Kansas City Chiefs with the Super Bowl and a lack of enticing newcomers causing moviegoers to stay home. Dog Man from DreamWorks Animation remained in 1st with $13.8 million, but the 62% plummet was far more than I figured. I called it at $19.4 million and it’s made $54 million thus far.
Horror rom com Heart Eyes didn’t impress in 2nd with $8.3 million, below my $10.8 million take. Despite solid reviews, audiences didn’t bite.
Same goes for critically reviled action comedy Love Hurts with Ke Huy Quan. It stalled with $5.8 million compared to my $7.1 million forecast.
Mufasa: The Lion King was fourth with $4 million (I said $4.6 million) for an eight-week haul of $235 million.
Companion, another scary pic with impressive critical reaction, nevertheless nosedived 68% in its sophomore weekend for fifth. The $3 million gross was well under my $4.9 million prediction as its ten-day take is $15 million.
Finally, buddy comedy One of Them Days was sixth at $2.8 million. I was more generous at $4.4 million and the four-week total is $39 million.
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Monica Barbaro in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown.
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
None
The Case for Monica Barbaro:
As Bob Dylan’s on and off again flame Joan Baez, Barbaro has a breakout role as the legendary folk singer. The SAG awards put her in their mix and the picture itself scored an impressive eight nominations overall.
The Case Against Monica Barbaro:
Folks making up the voting branches at Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes did not nominate her. Zoe Saldaña from Emilia Pérez has dominated the precursors.
The Verdict:
Of Unknown‘s three acting nominees – Timothée Chalamet in Actor, Edward Norton in Supporting Actor, and here – I would rank Barbaro third in terms of winning possibility.
My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Yura Borisov from Anora…
The Producers Guild of America (PGA) provided a weekend hat trick for Sean Baker’s Anora as it won their top award over my pick of The Brutalist. This is the same narrative that occurred Friday evening when it took Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards over Brady Corbet’s epic immigrant drama. Also on Saturday night, Baker was selected as the Directors Guild of America recipient over Corbet. As discussed in the blog post recounting that ceremony, the DGA and Oscar’s Best Director nearly always match.
In one weekend, Anora became the Academy’s frontrunner for Best Picture. There’s no other logical way to look at it. With Emilia Pérez significantly weakened due to Karla Sofia Gascón’s recent controversies and A Complete Unknown, Conclave, and Wicked yet to grab any major BP precursors, Anora is elevated with CCA/PGA/DGA in a 48 hour period. Wicked still could win SAG in a couple of weeks and so could Conclave. I also feel the latter is a possibility for BP at BAFTA. The Brutalist is also a threat at the British equivalent of the Oscars. In other words, Best Picture isn’t over but Anora is your new leader (or continued leader if you had it in first). I have had The Brutalist in that position for months and that’s no longer the case.
As for the PGA’s other two categories, The Wild Robot is your Animated Theatrical Motion Picture while Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (not up at Oscar) is the documentary victor. I correctly called those two competitions.
Keep an eye on the blog throughout the coming days as I continue to post Case Of Oscar write-ups. I’ll also have BAFTA winner predictions up later this week!
The 30th Critics’ Choice Awards aired this evening and this body had some tricks up their sleeve with some seriously surprising selections. Leading up to Best Picture, you would’ve been right to count out Sean Baker’s Anora. It had emerged victorious nowhere, even in the races where it was supposed to like Original Screenplay. I listed it as my runner-up to The Brutalist. Fun fact: this is your first CCA BP to not receive any other wins.
Let’s not start writing those Anora will take the Oscar BP columns. While it is certainly a possibility, just half of the previous 10 CCA BP recipients repeated with the Academy. If it manages to grab PGA tomorrow, it could rightfully become the soft frontrunner.
I went 13 for 21 overall in my picks. While Anora‘s sole win in BP was unexpected, the biggest shocker was easily in Director. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) was widely anticipated to sweep through the season and then CCA went and named Jon M. Chu for Wicked. He’s not even nominated for the Oscar. When’s the last time the Critics’ pick wasn’t up for the Academy’s trophy? That would be Ben Affleck for Argo and before that, you must go back to 2002 when they gave it to Steven Spielberg for his double feature of Minority Report and Catch Me If You Can.
My against the odds selection was Mikey Madison (Anora) over Demi Moore in The Substance. I should’ve gone bigger with my Anora upset calls. Moore did get Actress just as with the Globes. In fact, all the acting winners are also Globe takers: Adrien Brody in The Brutalist for its sole prize tonight in Actor and supporting players Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez and Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. The Moore/Brody/Saldaña/Culkin combo could absolutely be the Oscar quartet and they are certainly the favorites.
As for other categories, here’s where I was right:
Conclave in Adapted Screenplay; Emilia Pérez as Foreign Language Film and The Wild Robot in Animated Feature; A Real Pain is Best Comedy though it tied with Deadpool & Wolverine (so I guess I was half right); Wicked in Costume Design and Production Design; The Substance for Hair & Makeup, Challengers for Original Score; “El Mal” from Pérez in Original Song; and Dune: Part Two for Visual Effects.
Where I went wrong:
The Substance scored an out of nowhere win over BP Anora in Original Screenplay. Maisy Stella (My Old Ass) is the Best Young Actor/Actress instead of Izaac Wang in Dídi. Conclave is Best Ensemble over Wicked. In Cinematography, it’s Nosferatu and not The Brutalist. Challengers took the Editing category and not Anora.
What’s it all mean for BP? The Brutalist could’ve solidified frontrunner status tonight and it didn’t. The fact that Anora didn’t win anywhere else? Confusing. And we do have 4 legit acting favorites. Let’s see if PGA and DGA can muddy the waters tomorrow…
Here’s the win total for the various pictures in contention
3 Wins
Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked
2 Wins
Challengers, Conclave, A Real Pain
1 Win
Anora, The Brutalist, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, My Old Ass, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered nine of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The final entry in this competition is Jon M. Chu’s Wicked.
The Case for Wicked:
If Best Picture were (ahem) a popularity contest, the adaptation of the iconic stage play would fly away with the gold. The worldwide tally is $722 million and counting and that’s just ahead of Dune: Part Two‘s global take. It tied for the second most Academy nominations at 10 (along with The Brutalist) contending in Actress (Cynthia Erivo), Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande), Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Precursor BP nods were achieved at the Globes, Critics Choice, and PGA and it’s also up for Ensemble at SAG.
The Case Against Wicked:
There are some key misses as BAFTA passed it by and it lost at the Globes in Best Film (Musical or Comedy) to Emilia Pérez (before recent controversy). Despite the double digits noms, the omissions for Chu’s direction and Adapted Screenplay are noteworthy. The voters could figure they can wait until part two coming later this year to honor it.
The Verdict:
Down the line victories in Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound in particular appear doable. I wouldn’t completely discount a Wicked BP win, but it’s a long shot. If it manages to take Ensemble at SAG, expect chatter to rise. I’d still be skeptical.
My Case Of Posts will continue with our first Best Actress hopeful and that’s Cynthia Erivo in Wicked…
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