And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days.
It begins with Supporting Actor. When I gave you my first picks in 2024, it yielded one eventual nominee. That happened to be the winner with Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. Under the 10 other possibilities, I correctly called another contender in Culkin’s Succession costar Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice). Yura Borisov (Anora), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), and Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) were not identified at this early juncture.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor. And there will be movies were not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.
This premiere post projects that Colman Domingo will earn his third nod in as many years after lead actor attempts for Rustin and Sing Sing as troubled Jackson family patriarch Joseph in Michael. We could also see Star Wars legend Mark Hamill nab a slot for Toronto Film Festival Audience winner The Life of Chuck and Adam Sandler see his first recognition for Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly.
Here’s the first snapshot with Supporting Actress up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
Blogger’s Update (04/03): On the eve of its premiere, a very significant update as Minecraft tracking is going through the roof. I’m upping my projection from $57.5 million to a whopping $92.5 million (!)
A Minecraft Movie starring Jason Momoa and Jack Black looks to dominate the charts while The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 hopes to capture a hefty portion of the audience that witnessed Part 1 this past weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Minecraft, based on the best selling video game of all time, should outgross the rest of the top five combined. However, that’s with a caveat. My mid to high 50s estimate isn’t exactly a robust number for this IP and would be considered a slight disappointment.
The rest of the top 5 is a little tricky. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 encompasses episodes 3-5 of the popular faith-based TV show. Part 1 easily outpaced expectations (more on that below). The follow-up shows should see diminishing returns, but it could still be good enough for second or third place. According to the info I’ve seen, Part 1 should still be in multiplexes and it might remain in the top five.
As for holdovers, Jason Statham’s A Working Man clocked a surprising #1 start and it may lose around half its audience while Disney’s dud Snow White may lose slightly more.
Here’s how I have the chart playing out:
1. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $92.5 million
2. A Working Man
Predicted Gross: $8 million
3. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
4. Snow White
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (March 28-30)
In an upset, A Working Man capitalized on the ho-hum Snow White reception and was first with $15.5 million. The action thriller rose above my $13.9 million prediction and is another decent hit for Mr. Statham.
Disney’s Snow White live-action retelling tumbled 66% to $14.3 million, below my $16.4 million projection. The ten-day take is $66 million as it tries to reach $100 million domestically.
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1, as mentioned, easily rose above forecasts in third with $11.7 million. That soars past my $6.4 million call and is quite a heavenly result for the Fathom Events distributed property.
Horror flick The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler debuted in fourth with $9.3 million, surpassing my $6.7 million estimate. With a C- Cinemascore, the sophomore drop should be substantial. Lucky for it, the budget is reportedly a meager $12 million.
The biggest disappointment of the week besides Snow‘s fall was Death of a Unicorn. In fifth place, the horror comedy with Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega took in just $5.7 million compared to my $8.8 million prediction.
A quartet of newcomers hope to populate spots 2-5 this weekend with Snow White looking to cling to first place after a muted debut. We have the Jason Statham action pic A Working Man, Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega in the horror comedy Death of a Unicorn, more serious scary movie The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler, and the first two episodes of the popular faith-based program The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Snow White had the lowest modern-day premiere for any of the Mouse House live-action adaptations (more on that below). To add insult to injury, its B+ Cinemascore grade is also the worst of the sub genre. The similarly performing Dumbo from 2019 plummeted 60% in its sophomore frame. I would expect a similar result for Snow White and that should mean a mid-teens gross.
That might keep it in first place as I have A Working Man in the low teens for a runner-up showing (it has an outside shot of being #1). I am placing Unicorn just below $10 million with Yard and Chosen both in the mid single digits. Considering the sad state of affairs at multiplexes financially, that should mean 80% of the high 5 is fresh product.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Snow White
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
2. A Working Man
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
3. Death of a Unicorn
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
4. The Woman in the Yard
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
Box Office Results (March 21-23)
Pick your cliched headline – it was a sleepy opening… it was a ho-hum debut…
They apply to Snow White which, as mentioned, experienced the weakest unveiling of any Disney live-action rendering at $42.2 million. That’s below my $49.6 million take and it’s a pretty impossible spin job for its studio to attempt. Some articles have correctly pointed out that Mufasa: The Lion King premiered to lower numbers but legged out nicely. The difference is that Mufasa rolled out over the holidays where drop-offs are insignificant. I don’t expect that to be the case here.
As I suspected, slots 2-6 were separated by just over a million bucks. That made it tricky to know where the pics would land. Black Bag stayed in second place with $4.2 million, on target with my $4 million prediction. Steven Soderbergh’s spy tale sits at $14 million after ten days.
Captain America: Brave New World was third with $4 million, in line with my $4.1 million call. The MCU entry is nearing $200 million with $192 million in the bank after six weeks.
Novocaine slid from 1st to 4th with $3.6 million, a tad below my $4.1 million projection. The two-week take is $15 million.
Mickey 17 rounded out the top five with $3.6 million. My estimate? $3.6 million! The three-week earnings are an underwhelming $40 million.
Finally, critically panned Robert De Niro (and Robert De Niro) Mob saga The Alto Knights was flat in sixth with $3.1 million (I said $3.7 million).
Jack Quaid is unconventional hero Novocaine, Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender carry the romantic thriller Black Bag from Steven Soderbergh, and Daffy Duck and Porky Pig headline The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the new trio here:
It could be a battle for the #1 spot. I’m projecting no feature will top $10 million though I believe Novocaine has the best shot and that it manages first place with only mild bragging rights.
I foresee Mickey 17 suffering a significant drop in its sophomore frame after a so-so start (more on that below). A mid to high 50s plummet would put it in second or maybe even third.
Black Bag, generating impressive reviews, could outdo my third place number but the adult drama should face trouble bringing in a younger crowd.
Speaking of younger crowds, Looney Tunes hopes to cash in on its well-known animated stars. Yet this seems to be severely under marketed and I have it in fifth behind Captain America: Brave New World.
Here’s how I have the high five shaking out:
1. Novocaine
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
2. Mickey 17
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
3. Black Bag
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million
4. Captain America: Brave New World
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
5. The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
Box Office Results (March 7-9)
Bong Joon-ho’s Mickey 17 ended Captain America‘s three-week #1 reign with $19 million. Given the reported price tag of around $120 million, that’s not a result to brag about. However, the sci-fi satire with Robert Pattinson did surpass my $17.9 million prediction.
Captain America: Brave New World fell to second with $8.3 million. I was on target at $8.4 million. The MCU adventure now stands at $176 million.
Last Breath was third with $4 million, a bit lower than my $4.6 million forecast for the survival flick. The two-week take is $14 million.
The Monkey was fourth with $3.9 million (I said $3.4 million) for $31 million after three weeks.
Paddington in Peru rounded out the top five at $3.7 million and I incorrectly had it outside the leading quintet. The sequel’s four-week gross is $36 million.
Finally, Rule Breakers from Angel Studios stumbled in ninth with a paltry $1.5 million. I was far more generous at $3.7 million.
After months of speculation and a whole lotta blog posts covering the various competitions, the 97th Academy Awards is now in the history books. It was a history making night for Anora maker Sean Baker. His four statues tie for the most Oscars received in a single evening. He’s in iconic company. The other individual to achieve it is Walt Disney.
Anora was the story of the night with five victories. I went 17 for 20 in my predictions and the three I missed is where I didn’t pick Anora. I correctly called it in Best Picture and Original Screenplay (wins 1 and 2 for Baker). I incorrectly selected Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) over Baker in director (win 3). Conclave was my wrong pick for Film Editing when went to Baker (win 4). Mikey Madison’s work in the title role was my third misstep as she took gold over Demi Moore (The Substance). Just as Everything Everywhere All at Once dominated the show two years back and Oppenheimer did so a year ago, it was Anora‘s night to shine.
The ceremony itself only ran about 15 minutes over with first-time host Conan O’Brien doing a solid if unspectacular job at the helm. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande kicked things off in soaring fashion with their performance of “Defying Gravity” from Wicked. That was a high point. A rather pointless 007 tribute was a bit of a head scratcher. Overall the show was fine with a heartfelt Gene Hackman tribute from Morgan Freeman being another memorable moment.
Let’s run down what I got right quickly. That includes the other three acting derbies as Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) is now a two-time Best Actor with Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) completing their supporting sweeps.
Frankly, I didn’t think I’d pull off the hat trick of International Feature Film, Animated Feature, and Documentary Feature. I managed it with the respective winners I’m Still Here, Flow, and No Other Land.
Other than the aforementioned Film Editing, all other down the line contests were correct calls: Cinematography and Original Score to The Brutalist; Costume Design and Production Design for Wicked; The Substance in Makeup and Hairstyling; “El Mal” as Original Song for Emilia Pérez; Sound and Visual Effects to Dune: Part Two.
The win counts were as follows for the following pictures:
5 Wins
Anora
3 Wins
The Brutalist
2 Wins
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
1 Win
Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain, The Substance
Now it’s time to shift focus to the 98th. So keep an eye on this blog for all the speculation that fits…
This is it. After months upon months of speculation and scores of individual Oscar Prediction posts…
After 35 Case Of entries making the argument for and against every Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor nominee…
After trying to pick up clues based on what happened at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, PGA, DGA, and more…
After changing and re-changing my mind right up until I type these final words…
These are my final prediction for the 97th Academy Awards airing Sunday with Conan O’Brien hosting!
We’ve had endless chatter on this blog so let’s get to it. For each race, I’m giving you my winner pick with a runner-up and some brief commentary.
BEST PICTURE
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked
Unlike last year where Oppenheimer was the obvious pick to win, there is real suspense heading into the last category of the night. Anora took Critics Choice/DGA/PGA, Conclave nabbed BAFTA/SAG Best Ensemble while The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez won their respective Drama and Musical or Comedy competitions at the Globes.
Due to its recent controversies, Pérez is out of the hunt. I honestly could see The Brutalist still emerging. I had it placed at #1 in my overall predictions for a long time during my weekly updates. That said, it’s probably third in the running. Even though one heckuva argument can be made for Conclave and recent momentum, I’m going with Anora.
PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
It is very dangerous to go against the DGA winner and that’s Sean Baker. Oscar/DGA match nearly every year. If you’re betting on this competition, probably go Baker. Yet Corbet took the Globe and BAFTA. Jon M. Chu (as an outlier) was the Critics Choice honoree. I could see Corbet still pulling this off.
PREDICTED WINNER: BRADY CORBET, THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
Torres (Globe winner for Actress in a Drama) isn’t impossible, but it’s a long shot. This is a real nail biter between Madison and Moore. The former was the surprise BAFTA recipient while Moore’s comeback narrative yielded her the Globe (Musical or Comedy), Critics Choice, and SAG. Had Madison taken SAG, I’d probably be predicting her. I’m sticking with Demi in what could be the closest race of the evening.
PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE
Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Chalamet certainly made this race more intriguing when he took SAG, but Brody has the Globe/Critics Choice/BAFTA combo.
PREDICTED WINNER: ADRIEN BRODY, THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
It was once thought that this could turn into a Grande v. Saldaña showdown. The latter has instead swept through the season. Saldaña appears immune to the Pérez negative publicity.
PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisvov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
It’s rare for the Supporting Actor winner not to come from a BP nominee, but Culkin has swept thus far and anyone else taking this would be a major upset at this juncture.
PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
This is not the slam dunk that I once assumed with Anora. Both A Real Pain and The Substance have picked up unexpected precursor prizes. I’m still going with my BP.
PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA
Runner-Up: A Real Pain
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
Conclave should get this though a Nickel Boys upset is feasible.
PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE
Runner-Up: Nickel Boys
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
This will be the largest test as to how much controversy truly hurt Pérez. A few weeks ago, I would’ve easily picked it. Then came bad press and I’m Still Here sneaking in the BP ten with Torres up in Best Actress. Pérez could still pull this off, but I’m saying Here.
PREDICTED WINNER: I’M STILL HERE
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Flow and Robot have both picked up precursors. So did Gromit, but that was BAFTA and they honored their own. This feels like a coin flip between Flow and Robot and my gut says the former in a squeaker.
PREDICTED WINNER: FLOW
Runner-Up: The Wild Robot
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane
The doc branch is truly unpredictable and that’s compounded by precursors being all over the place. In fact, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story picked up a couple honors and it’s not listed here. No Other Land was once thought of as a sweeper and that didn’t materialize. I’ll still say it wins with Porcelain as the most significant threat.
PREDICTED WINNER: NO OTHER LAND
Runner-Up: Porcelain War
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu
Maria and Nosferatu are possible but I’ll say the epic Brutalist.
PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Nosferatu
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
Academy voters should ride with Wicked.
PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED
Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown
BEST FILM EDITING
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
This is a tough one between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave. The Brutalist is tempting and so is going with the BP pick Anora. This feels like a dart board selection and I’m landing on BAFTA honoree Conclave.
PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE
Runner-Up: Anora
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
All signs point to The Substance.
PREDICTED WINNER: THE SUBSTANCE
Runner-Up: Wicked
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
I wouldn’t rule out Conclave, but The Brutalist is the pick.
PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
Who knows? Maybe the Academy just goes with Elton John. They could also finally honor songwriter Diane Warren after 15 nomination and zero wins. And this is another test for Pérez with Globe winner “Mi Camino”. I’ll say “Camino” in a pick ’em.
PREDICTED WINNER: “MI CAMINO” FROM EMILIA PÉREZ
Runner-Up: “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
If The Brutalist over performs and takes BP, I could see this happening. Wicked is the safer pick.
PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST SOUND
A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
The musicals could surprise. Dune: Part Two is likelier.
PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO
Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
This should be Dune‘s other victory.
PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO
Runner-Up: Better Man
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening and here’s the breakdown of win totals for the pictures…
4 Wins
The Brutalist
2 Wins
Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked
1 Win
Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our final entry in Best Director and that’s James Mangold for A Complete Unknown. If you missed my posts covering the other nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Directing Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for James Mangold:
After a long career with varied projects like Cop Land, Girl Interrupted, Walk the Line, Logan, Ford v Ferrari, and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic is his first entry into Best Director. He made the quintet at DGA. The Academy could honor him for the overall body of work.
The Case Against James Mangold:
It hasn’t played out that way in precursors as Sean Baker (Anora) and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) have been your winners. Mangold additionally didn’t make the cut at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, or Critics Choice.
The Verdict:
Mangold’s first nod will be just that and not a victory.
My Case Of posts have concluded just five days before the 97th Academy Awards. My final predictions for the ceremony will be posted tomorrow…
In what should be a quiet box office weekend, survival thriller Last Breath with Woody Harrelson and Simu Liu hopes to find an audience while Captain America: Brave New World seeks to three-peat. You can find my detailed prediction post on Breath here:
Despite a troubling 68% sophomore plummet, Captain America should manage a third weekend atop the charts due to lack of competition. It may, however, not even reach low teens this time around.
The best case scenario for Breath would be second place, but it could place anywhere from runner-up to fifth depending on drops of holdovers.
The Monkey, with a C+ Cinemascore grade, is likely to experience a heftier decline over family fare offerings Paddington in Peru and Dog Man (though it could remain in second).
Here’s how I see the top five shaking out in a cinematic frame where audiences might be more transfixed by the Oscars:
1. Captain America: Brave New World
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
2. The Monkey
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
3. Last Breath
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
4. Paddington in Peru
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
5. Dog Man
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
Box Office Predictions (February 21-23)
As mentioned, the MCU’s 35th feature Captain America: Brave New World cratered in its second outing with a near 70% fall. It made $28.1 million, in line with my $29.6 million call, for a $141 million ten-day overall take.
Horror comedy The Monkey performed toward the lower end of its expected range at $14 million. I was more generous at $18.2 million. Look for it to fade quickly like Companion did.
Holdovers generally went under my forecasts with Paddington in Peru third at $6.5 million compared to my $8.9 million estimate. The two-week total is an underwhelming $25 million.
Dog Man was fourth with $5.8 million, under my $7.1 million prediction for $78 million in its four weeks of release.
Ne Zha 2 rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it listed. The Chinese animated fantsy took in $3 million to bring its two-week tally to $14 million.
Heart Eyes was sixth with a ginormous 73% dip to $2.7 million in its third weekend for $26 million in the bank.
Finally, The Unbreakable Boy with Zachary Levi was another snoozer for Lionsgate in 8th. It made $2.3 million and I projected it at $3 million.
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fifth and final entry in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Zoe Saldaña in Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez. If you missed my posts covering the other nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Zoe Saldaña:
After a career mostly known for appearances in the Star Trek, Avatar, and Guardians of the Galaxy franchises, Saldaña’s work as a singing defense attorney to the title character has earned across the board precursor victories. That includes the Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA.
The Case Against Zoe Saldaña:
If the controversy regarding costar Karla Sofia Gascón’s past social media postings translate to all Pérez categories, Saldaña could be in trouble.
The Verdict:
Saldaña appears immune to the Gascón firestorm and the sweep appears assured. Anyone other than her winning on Sunday evening would constitute a major upset.
My Case Of posts will continue with the final hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice…
The 31st SAG Awards added to the unpredictability of Oscar night in one week by crowning Conclave as the Best Ensemble recipient. This occurs seven days after it got BAFTA’s largest prize. The correlation between the Academy’s Best Picture and SAG ensemble is 6/10 in the past decade. Conclave still may not be the frontrunner next Sunday but its chances are looking better.
I predicted Wicked would take Ensemble while plenty of others went with Anora. Had the latter emerged victorious, it would’ve solidified frontrunner positioning in BP. Now Oscar night’s biggest race appears to be a three-way contest between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave with genuine suspense as to what will come out on top.
Ensemble was the only category I missed as I went 5/6 in my projections. I’ll gladly take that in this unpredictable season. Both lead acting derbies were coin flips where I managed to make the right call. Demi Moore (The Substance) won and she now has SAG, Critics Choice, and the Globe with Mikey Madison (Anora) claiming BAFTA. I am still deciding who will take the Oscar.
For Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) picked up his first major trophy over Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). I had a hunch this might happen as the SAG voters ignored Brody’s costars Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce and nominated Chalamet’s cast mates Monica Barbaro and Edward Norton. I’m not convinced the Academy will follow suit, but it’s surely more of a two-way race now.
The supporting fields appear set in stone as Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) have now swept the season. Anyone other than them making podium trips next Sunday would be a rather shocking upset at this juncture.
Finally, The Fall Guy nabbed Best Stunt Ensemble as I figured the movie about stunt performers would.
Keep an eye on the blog as I wrap up my Case Of posts with those final predictions (!) coming Wednesday.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 