No one can do Cannes like Neon. The indie film production company has ruled the French festival for six years straight when it comes to the Palme d’Or winner. That list consists of Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora. The first and last movies in that quintet went onto win Best Picture at the Oscars with Triangle and Anatomy nabbing nominations.
Neon once again had contenders to spare at this year’s competition and many assumed the grand prize would go to Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. That acclaimed family drama immediately established itself as an Oscar contender. Yet the Cannes jury (headed by Juliette Binoche) instead chose another Neon property in Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. It marks another festival triumph for the Iranian filmmaker. His 2000 feature The Circle took top honors in Venice while 2015’s Taxi was awarded best of at the Berlin Fest. Accident now enters the conversation for a BP mention from the Academy and it certainly is a major contender for International Feature Film.
As for the more favored Value, it settled for the Grand Prix designation which is basically runner-up (it went to BP nominee The Zone of Interest in 2023). As mentioned, Neon has high hopes for its future in the coming months.
The Jury Prize (which Emilia Pérez took last time around) was shared between Spanish/French coproduction Sirât from Oliver Laxe and Mascha Schilinski’s German generational tale Sound of Falling (which is also a sturdy hopeful in IFF).
Another major player for Neon is The Secret Agent, the 1970s set Brazilian political thriller. Kieber Mendonça Filho received the Director trophy while Wagner Moura is Best Actor. Look for Agent to have a potential presence in IFF while Moura’s lead campaign could be a real threat for Academy inclusion.
Nadia Melliti is your Best Actress for the French coming-of-age drama The Little Sister. The young actress emerged over heavy hitter Jennifer Lawrence from Die, My Love. Nevertheless Lawrence did strengthen her shot at a fifth Oscar play months down the road.
Some had pegged Richard Linklater’s Nouvelle Vague (which recounts the shooting of French classic Breathless) for some Riviera prizes, but it wasn’t to be. Other high profile premieres not found among the victors are Iranian drama Woman and Child (where Parinaz Izadyar was considered viable in Actress), Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme, and Julia Ducournau’s Titane follow-up Alpha.
Keep an eye on the blog as I continue to write individual posts for movies screened at Cannes. I hadn’t even gotten to Accident yet! As for next year, look to see what Neon’s backing when figuring out the favorites…
Blogger’s Update (05/21/25): I am upping my Lilo & Stitch estimate considerably from $118.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $143.7 million from Friday to Monday to $159.7 million for the three-day and $196.6 million for the four-day. That would easily be a new Memorial Day weekend record.
Hollywood hopes moviegoers make it their mission to go to the movies over the long weekend as Disney’s Lilo & Stitch looks to rule the charts with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning placing second. There’s also The Last Rodeo from faith-based Angel Studios debuting and Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd’s dark comedy Friendship expanding wide. My detailed prediction posts on the quartet can be accessed here:
Nostalgia and the Mouse House’s marketing muscle should propel Lilo & Stitch to more impressive heights than, say, Snow White from earlier this year. I have the live-action version of the 2002 animated tale reaching just under $120 million for the Friday to Sunday portion of Memorial Day weekend and just over $140 million for the four-day.
Tom Cruise should easily achieve runner-up status with the eighth and (final?) pic in his nearly 30-year-old franchise. I am estimating that The Final Reckoning will somewhat capitalize on its finale status with a three-day near $60 million (edging predecessor Dead Reckoning) and north of $70 million counting Monday.
The Last Rodeo could place sixth while I have Friendship in 7th place. Either has the chance to over perform, but I doubt it considering the amount of competition.
As for holdovers, Final Destination Bloodlines got off to a terrific start (more on that below), but should experience the hefty decline that usually greets horror titles. Holdovers The New Avengers, Sinners, and Minecraft should see minimal declines as is custom over this particular holiday.
And with that, here’s my top 8 take and keep in mind that grosses for returning flicks are a Friday to Monday forecast:
1. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $196.6 million (Friday to Monday); $159.7 million (Friday to Sunday)
2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $80.8 million (Friday to Monday); $64.4 million (Friday to Sunday)
3. Final Destination Bloodlines
Predicted Gross: $24.9 million
4. Sinners
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million
5. The New Avengers
Predicted Gross: $14 million
6. The Last Rodeo
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (Friday to Monday); $6.4 million (Friday to Sunday)
7. Friendship
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (Friday to Monday); $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday)
8. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
Box Office Results (May 16-18)
As mentioned, Final Destination Bloodlines logged a far better than anticipated gross with $51.6 million. That’s easily the best premiere in the 25-year-old franchise and should kickstart plenty more Destination‘s to come. It surpassed my $42.2 million prediction and represents another success story for WB behind A Minecraft Movie and Sinners.
The New Avengers/Thunderbolts* fell to second after two weeks on top with $16.6 million, a tad shy of my $18.1 million prediction. The MCU adventure sits at $155 million after three weeks.
Sinners was third with $15.2 million (I said $15.9 million) as it has now bitten off $240 million in its five weeks.
A Minecraft Movie was fourth with $5.9 million compared to my $5.2 million call as the mega blockbuster has made $416 million after seven weeks.
The Accountant 2 rounded out the top five with $4.7 million, on target with my $4.6 million number. The sequel’s total is $58 million in four weeks.
Finally, critically drubbed Hurry Up Tomorrow starring The Weeknd stumbled in sixth with $3.3 million and that’s under my $4.5 million projection.
The movie formerly known as Thunderbolts* looks to rule the box office once again with Sinners firmly in the runner-up position in this second May frame. That’s because there’s no new wide releases to challenge them and the top five should look similar to the month’s first weekend.
The MCU’s 36th entry Thunderbolts* (we’ll get to that asterisk) opened similarly to 2021 franchise titles Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75 million) and Eternals ($71 million). Shang dropped in the mid-50s in its sophomore outing while Eternals fell a steeper 62%. With solid word-of-mouth and scant competition, a low to mid 50s decline is where I see this ending up.
Sinners looks to continue its meager drops and should see mid-20s in its fourth go-round while A Minecraft Movie, The Accountant 2, and Until Dawn should all hold at 3-5.
Back to that asterisk. So… (spoiler alert?… but not really) Disney/Marvel revealed today that Thunderbolts* is actually titled The New Avengers and it is listed that way on official materials. This all makes sense after you’ve seen it. Therefore I will honor the studio’s wishes and call it that moving forward.
Here’s how I see the high 5 shaking out:
1. The New Avengers
Predicted Gross: $33.8 million
2. Sinners
Predicted Gross: $24 million
3. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
4. The Accountant 2
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
5. Until Dawn
Predicted Gross: $2.2 million
Box Office Results (May 2-4)
Thund…,errr, The New Avengers came in at the lower end of its anticipated range with $74.3 million, falling shy of my $79.3 million call. It’s not a bad result for the superhero tale, but it is several million short of what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February and nowhere near the earnings of previous sagas with the word Avengers in it.
Sinners hauled in another $33.1 million, in line with my $34 million forecast. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick has amassed $179 million in three weeks.
A Minecraft Movie was third with $13.7 million, slightly topping my $12.5 million projection. The Warner Bros smash is just under $400 million at $398 million after four weeks.
The Accountant 2 saw its numbers plummet 61% in weekend #2 with $9.4 million. That’s below my more generous $12.8 million prediction. The ten-day tally is $41 million.
Video game based horror pic Until Dawn rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.4 million) for $14 million in its two weeks.
On rare occasions, the need arises to update my Oscar prognosis on a particular picture if warranted. When I penned my post for Ryan Coogler’s Sinners on April 13th, I didn’t discount its awards potential. I wrote of its solid chances in down-the-line competitions including Ludwig Goransson’s lauded score and the sound and production design.
However, I also wrote this:
So could Sinners score above-the-line mentions? I think it’s possible, but I wouldn’t predict it at the moment. Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay could materialize depending on how competition shakes out in the months ahead.
I don’t need to wait until the months ahead to revise my remarks. Sinners has taken the box office by storm in addition to its critical acclaim. When my initial write-up was published nearly three weeks ago, the vampire drama stood at 100% on RT. It barely lost any steam with 98% at press time, a 97% audience score and 84 on Metacritic.
On the financial front, Coogler’s latest has taken in $123 million domestically after less than two weeks and it should reach $250 million or higher. Sinners has become part of the cultural zeitgeist and that’s a recipe for a strong showing this awards season.
So what’s the best case scenario for this? The ceiling has undeniably gotten higher. I now believe that Sinners will be nominated for Best Picture with Director and Original Screenplay as major possibilities. In addition to the aforementioned Score, Production Design, and Sound, there are other below the line categories where it could pop up. That includes the new Casting race, Original Song (where the track “I Lied to You” from cast member Miles Caton might stand the best shot), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. Regarding that new casting competition, I’m confident this will be in a sturdy position to vie for Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards next year.
I didn’t discuss the actors involved in mid-April because I wasn’t seriously considering their inclusion. That has changed. Michael B. Jordan could factor into the Best Actor race. In Supporting Actress, it could be Hailee Steinfeld or Wunmi Mosaku (with the former probably having an edge to nab her second nod after 2010’s True Grit). For Supporting Actor, there’s Delroy Lindo, Caton, or Jack O’Connell. Some of this may come down to who Warner Bros mounts campaigns for. The narrative for Lindo might be tempting. Five years ago, he probably narrowly missed the cut for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods. He’s a well-respected veteran actor who’s never been nominated and the Academy could look to rectify that.
Back to that best case scenario. If all went perfectly, that would be 16 nominations and the record stands at 14 (shared by Titanic, All About Eve, and La La Land). Do I think that’ll happen? No. Would 12 or 13 nods surprise me? No.
Some prognosticators may think it’s too early to think anything has secured one of the ten BP slots. And there’s always the matter of a horror movie making the cut. Yet Get Out and The Substance brought the genre into the big dance in the past decade. As for the timeline, it was rather clear that Dune: Part Two was going to be a Warner Bros hopeful at this juncture in 2024 and that turned out to be accurate. Another counterargument is that WB will focus on Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. Time will tell on that one, but there’s no reason the studio can’t have two contenders and I’m skeptical (based on the trailer) that Battle is a surefire play over Sinners.
Three weeks ago I wasn’t predicting Sinners for BP and beyond “at the moment”. That moment arrived quickly for me to reconsider. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The summer 2025 box office season gets underway with Marvel’s Thunderbolts*. The 36th franchise entry looks to make noise atop the charts and you peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
With solid early buzz, my high 70s projection gives it about $10 million less than what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February. The debut would put it in line with general expectations as it’ll hope to leg out impressively throughout May.
Sinners was #1 once again for a second frame following an astonishing hold (more on that below). The MCU competition should mean a heftier slide than the sophomore outing, but I still have it only easing around 25%. That would mean a third weekend north of $30 million.
Third place could be a close contest between holdovers The Accountant 2 and A Minecraft Movie. I have the former dropping close to 50% with Minecraft experiencing a mid 40s decline.
Fifth place should belong to Until Dawn with around a high 50s to 60% plummet (typical for the horror genre).
Here’s how I have that high five playing out:
1. Thunderbolts*
Predicted Gross: $79.3 million
2. Sinners
Predicted Gross: $34 million
3. The Accountant 2
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
4. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
5. Until Dawn
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
Box Office Results (April 25-27)
Multiplexes were packed as four features topped $20 million in sales with Sinners shocking prognosticators with a mere 5% drop. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick with Michael B. Jordan sucked up another $45.7 million, blasting past my $33.1 million prediction. In ten days, the Oscar contender stands at $123 million with $300 million domestic potentially in its sights.
The rerelease of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith for its 20th anniversary landed one of the best reissue premieres of all time with $25.4 million in a surprise second That edges past my $22.6 million call. The third feature (and best reviewed) of the second trilogy returned to theaters for a one-week engagement (that’s why you don’t see it reflected in my projections for next weekend). A nostalgia factor clearly helped Sith as it almost tripled what The Phantom Menace‘s rerelease in February 2024 earned for its start. The $25 million in extra coin for Sith pushed the total domestic haul to $405 million over two decades.
The highest grossing truly new film was The Accountant 2 as the Ben Affleck action sequel was third with $24.5 million. I was right on target at $24.3 million, but I thought it would be #2. Its opening gross is right in line with the 2016 original.
A Minecraft Movie was fourth in weekend #4 with $22.7 million (I said $21.4 million) as the Warner Bros video game adaptation has collected $379 million.
New horror pic Until Dawn (also based on a video game) rounded out the top five with $8 million. The unimpressive figure is on pace with my $7.8 million forecast.
Blogger’s Update (04/23): I am now factoring in the re-release of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith and projecting a third place showing with $20M+. I am also lowering my The Account 2 estimate from $28.6 million to $24.3 million.
The Accountant 2 with Ben Affleck looks to challenge the second weekend of Sinners for box office supremacy while horror pic Until Dawn also debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Over Easter weekend, I predicted a close race between A Minecraft Movie and Sinners with the former coming out on top. I underestimated Sinners (more on that below) and it toppled Minecraft. This time it could be a photo finish between Sinners and The Accountant 2.
My high 20s projection for Affleck’s action thriller sequel could be enough for #1. However, due to its A Cinemascore grade and sizzling reviews, I’m thinking Sinners only dips in the mid 30s and that could give it north of $30 million for a repeat performance on top.
A mid 40s drop would give Minecraft $20M+ and third place. The battle for fifth could be interesting. While faith-based The King of Kings held even better than I figured over the holiday, the third weekend slide should be heftier in the mid 50s. That could still leave it in fourth as I have little faith in Until Dawn.
Here’s how I have the high six playing out:
1. Sinners
Predicted Gross: $33.1 million
2. The Accountant 2
Predicted Gross: $24.3 million
3. Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith re-release
Predicted Gross: $22.6 million
4. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $21.4 million
5. The King of Kings
Predicted Gross: $8 million
6. Until Dawn
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
Box Office Results (April 18-20)
It was a smoking Easter frame for Ryan Coogler’s Sinners with the best debut for an original picture since Jordan Peele’s Us from 2019. As mentioned, glowing reviews helped build buzz to a $48 million start. That tops my $44.8 million forecast and the Michael B. Jordan vampire saga looks to hold up well based on that word-of-mouth (in addition to being a likely awards contender).
After two weeks atop the charts, A Minecraft Movie slipped to second with $40.4 million (not matching my $46.1 million estimate). Nevertheless Warner Bros was able to claim legit bragging rights with Sinners and this each exceeding expectations. The three-week total is $343 million.
The King of Kings eased a scant 9% for third with $17.5 million, rising above my $12.7 million prediction. The ten-day tally is $45 million.
The Amateur was fourth with $7 million and I went a bit higher at $8.6 million. The Rami Malek spy flick stands at $27 million after two weekends.
Finally, Warfare rounded out the top five with $4.8 million (I said $5.4 million) for $17 million total in its second outing.
A month and change after the 97th ceremony, it is time for my first ranked predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies! I gave you my first numbered looks around the same juncture in 2023 and 2024. Two years ago, my April outlook yielded the winners being mentioned in Picture and Director (Oppenheimer and Christopher Nolan), Actress (Emma Stone for Poor Things), Actor (Oppenheimer‘s Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer). Last year… not so much.
Neither Anora, its maker (Sean Baker), or Anora herself (Mikey Madison) were named in April of 2024. The film would debut a month later at Cannes and vault itself into contention. The Brutalist also wasn’t on my radar so no mention of Adrien Brody in Actor. In the supporting fields, Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez was initially ranked 11th while Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) was listed in fourth. Hindsight is 20/20 for 2024, but I had Steve McQueen’s Blitz in first position in Best Picture exactly one year ago. It would go onto receive 0 nominations (pressure is on… After the Hunt).
Let’s get some key caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. Some of the pictures will get pushed back to 2026. Obviously there will be movies that turn out underwhelming and disappear from the awards conversation. Festival titles not listed today will rise up and contend.
You can expect these predictions will be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post (probably in the late summer or early fall when festival season goes into overdrive).
This inaugural preview comes as Ryan Coogler’s Sinners rules the box office with terrific reviews and word-of-mouth. At the moment, its Oscar future looks bright. Let’s see how that sentence reads several months down the line.
With all that out of the way – here are my first ranked takes!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. After the Hunt
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sentimental Value
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Sinners
6. The Rivals of Amziah King
7. Hamnet
8. Jay Kelly
9. The Life of Chuck
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another
12. Frankenstein
13. Bugonia
14. Deliver Me from Nowhere
15. The Smashing Machine
16. No Other Choice
17. The Ballad of a Small Player
18. Michael
19. Die, My Love
20. Highest 2 Lowest
21. Kiss of the Spider Woman
22. F1
23. Is This Thing On?
24. Ann Lee
25. Alpha
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt
2. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
4. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King
5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Other Possibilities:
6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
7. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
8. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly
12. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
13. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me From Nowhere
14. Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck
15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
8. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda
11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
13. Jodie Foster, Vie privée
14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead
15. Olivia Colman, The Roses
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player
10. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
12. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael
14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
15. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Other Possibilities:
6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
8. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
10. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
12. Emily Watson, Hamnet
13. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
14. Nia Long, Michael
15. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Colman Domingo, Michael
5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
11. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest
12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
13. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love
14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
15. Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme
You can expect another update shortly before the Cannes Film Festival kicks off where contenders like Sentimental Value, The Phoenician Scheme, Alpha, Eddington, Eleanor the Great, and Highest 2 Lowest will get their initial screenings.
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
We are a month and change removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They have been unfolding on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my takes for the four acting races and director and they can be accessed here:
That brings us to the biggest race of all – Best Picture. When I did my first projections for BP for the 97th ceremony back in April of 2024, I correctly named two of the eventual ten nominees in Conclave and Dune: Part Two. Three others – Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, and Wicked – were listed in Other Possibilities. Five other contenders – winner Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, I’m Still Here, and The Substance – were not yet on my radar screen.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system much like Anora, Pérez, The Substance, and The Brutalist last time around.
This premiere post predicts part two of Wicked and part 3 of Avatar among the ten hopefuls as well as last year’s Toronto Film Festival People Choice’s winner The Life of Chuck. Unlike most prognosticators, I currently have Paul Thomas Anderson’s high profile One Battle After Another on the outside looking in. And while I don’t have Sinners in my ten, the 99% RT rating is really making me wonder. I came close to including it.
My initial ranked predictions in the six major races (as well as the screenplay competitions) will be posted soon. In the meantime, here’s the first glimpse at BP.
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST PICTURE AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
Sinners, which reunites Michael B. Jordan with his Creed and Black Panther director Ryan Coogler, looks for a strong Easter weekend showing at multiplexes. Seeking to challenge A Minecraft Movie for the top spot, you can peruse my detailed prediction post on the vampire flick here:
It could be a real photo finish for the #1 slot. Sinners is holding at a remarkable 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and that should help build buzz. My mid 40s projection might equal box office supremacy.
Yet I have Minecraft barely managing bragging rights with a low 40s percent ease for a third week in first. The separation is less than $1.5 million between the leaders.
Holdovers in their sophomore frames should populate the rest of the top five via The King of Kings, The Amateur, and Warfare.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $46.1 million
2. Sinners
Predicted Gross: $44.8 million
3. The King of Kings
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
4. The Amateur
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
5. Warfare
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
Box Office Results (April 11-13)
A Minecraft Movie mastered the charts once again with $78.5 million, on pace with my $77.9 million call. The video game based smash has amassed $278 million in just two weeks of release.
Five newcomers filled the next spots with animated The King of Kings from Angel Studios outpacing its competitors. With an A+ Cinemascore, it was runner-up with $19.3 million. That’s falling shy of my $21.4 million estimate, but it’s still a terrific result.
The Amateur with Rami Malek was third with $14.8 million. That’s at the top of the anticipated range for the spy thriller and outdoes my $11.9 million prediction.
Warfare from Alex Garland and Iraq War vet Ray Mendoza managed fourth with $8.3 million, on target with my $8.5 million projection.
Blumhouse thriller Drop was fifth with a meh $7.3 million. I was close at $7.6 million. The B Cinemascore is decent for its genre though I’d look for this to fade quickly.
Finally, The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 took sixth with $6 million, I was a tad lower at $5.5 million.
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
It is just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They have been unfolding on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the acting fields and they can be found here:
That brings us to Best Director. This is the one major race of these first six where I named none of the eventual nominees for 97th ceremony back in April of 2024. That means the winner Sean Baker (Anora) and the other quartet of contenders (Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez, Brady Corbet for The Brutalist, Coralie Fargeat for The Substance, James Mangold for A Complete Unknown) had yet to reach my radar screen. Two years ago, I already had eventual recipient Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) in my high five during the inaugural guesstimate.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system much like Anora, Pérez, The Substance, and The Brutalist last time around.
This premiere post projects a return to competition for previous honoree Chloe Zhao with heavy hitters like Paul Thomas Anderson and Guillermo del Toro on the outside looking in.
Here’s the first snapshot with Best Picture up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
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