Tag: film

98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 27th Edition

Over the past couple of weeks, the biggest developments in the Oscar estimating game has come courtesy of lineup announcements for the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. Some of these updates are cosmetic – Ann Lee is now The Testament of Ann Lee, The Ballad of a Small Player has dropped the The. Some titles including Anemone, Ella McKay, Is This Thing On?, and Klara and the Sun might be skipping the fest circuit altogether. Perhaps some of them will move to 2026. It appears Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is foregoing the circuit prior to its September bow, but PTA is known for skipping them. Same goes for Marty Supreme though that’s not too surprising considering the Christmas release. It’s worth noting any of the aforementioned titles could pop up in London or New York or Telluride. Some of these festival premieres are receiving release dates while trailers continue to roll out including Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt.

There are changes to discuss:

  1. In BP, it is Avatar: Fire and Ash back in along with Hikari’s Rental Family for the first time. They take out Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident and Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.
  2. In Director, two changes with Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) and Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) in my top five with Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt) and Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) dropping.
  3. In Supporting Actress, Ayo Edebiri’s work in After the Hunt elevates to #1 over Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), sliding to second. Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) enters the projected quintet with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) now on the outside looking in.
  4. A similar story in Supporting Actor with Akira Emoto (Rental Family) now predicted and Jeremy Strong from Springsteen now outside the high five.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Rental Family (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 20) (+5)

16. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (-2)

17. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (-1)

18. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (+1)

19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)

20. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-3)

21. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (-3)

22. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (+3)

23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)

25. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (-4)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Emma Mackey, Ella McKay (PR: 10) (-1)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (-2)

13. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 12) (+6)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)

12. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (-2)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)

14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nouvelle Vague

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)

7. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Late Fame (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Highest 2 Lowest

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6, Sirât (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-1)

10. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)

4. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Scarlet (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (E)

10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)

5. Deaf President Now! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Timestamp (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Alabama Solution

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-2)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Bugonia (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)

5. F1 (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Christy (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

9. F1 (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 8) (+1)

8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 4) (-4)

9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Mother Mary

“Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Warfare (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Superman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-3)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Bugonia, Frankenstein

6 Nominations

After the Hunt

5 Nominations

Marty Supreme, Rental Family

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

2 Nominations

F1, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Kpop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Dead President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, Tron: Ares, Zootopia 2

July 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Superheroes will continue to rule the summer box office charts with Marvel’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps taking the top spot from DC’s Superman. The MCU reboot is the sole wide release newcomer this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps Box Office Prediction

Estimates are a bit all over the map for Steps. The general consensus is that it will top $100 million. Some projections have it eclipsing the $125 million that Superman accomplished just two frames ago. I have it coming in a tad lower, but think it has a better shot at over-indexing than under.

The comic book competition could mean another low 50s decline for the Man of Steel in its third outing with Jurassic World Rebirth sliding from second to third.

Slots 4-6 could be interesting as I Know What You Did Last Summer should suffer a heftier plummet than Smurfs or F1.

Here’s how I see 1-6 shaking out:

1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $122.4 million

2. Superman

Predicted Gross: $28 million

3. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

4. F1

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

5. Smurfs

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

6. I Know What You Did Last Summer

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (July 18-20)

Superman from DC Studios continued to fly high at #1 for the second week in a row with $58.4 million, slightly exceeding my $56.2 million call. James Gunn’s franchise restart has amassed $236 million after ten days.

Jurassic World Rebirth was second with $23.7 million, ahead of my $19.1 million call. The dino pic is up to $276 million following three weeks of play.

While I Know What You Did Last Summer was the biggest grossing newbie, the long gestating horror sequel came in the lower end of its range with $12.7 million in third. That’s under my $17.7 million forecast as viewers weren’t hooked by the return of the late 90s series.

Same goes for Smurfs which flopped in fourth with $11 million compared to my $12.4 million guesstimate. The animated tale with voice work from Rihanna couldn’t find its intended family audience.

F1 rounded out the top five by easing only 24% with $9.8 million, zooming past my $7.5 million take. The four-week total is $153 million.

Finally, Ari Aster’s COVID Western Eddington with Joaquin Phoenix and the ubiquitous Pedro Pascal was seventh with a weak $4.2 million (though it did manage to outdo my $3.4 million prediction).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Best Picture 2023: The Final Five

As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted two years and in 2011, it switched from anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic number for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set 10.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

For the 96th Academy Awards, we know Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer would have been one of them. It dominated the show by winning Best Picture, Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.

Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five is less obvious. And I really mean it this time because, with one exception, selecting the others was tough. Here’s my best speculation.

American Fiction

Cord Jefferson’s dramedy performed better than anticipated with five nominations including a win in Adapted Screenplay over heavy hitters Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and The Zone of Interest. Other nods were Jeffrey Wright in Actor, Sterling K. Brown for supporting, and Original Score.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes, but I went back and forth on this one and came very close to saying no. Gods and Monsters from 1998 is the last Adapted Screenplay winner to not be nominated for BP so that’s what gives this a slight edge.

Anatomy of a Fall

The French legal drama was inexplicably not selected for International Feature Film, but nabbed a quintet of nods that included Director (Justine Triet), Actress (Sandra Hüller), Film Editing, and a victory in Original Screenplay (over The Holdovers and Past Lives).

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but I went back and forth on this one and came very close to saying yes. Like with Fiction, there’s a screenplay component at play. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind from 2004 was the previous Original Screenplay winner to not be nominated for BP. In this case, the case for some other pics was just a tad stronger.

Barbie

Greta Gerwig’s smash hit had six other nods in Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, 2 Original Songs, and Production Design. The sole victory was for Billie Eilish’s ballad “What Was I Made For?”.

Does It Make the Final Five?

I went back and forth on this one… you get the idea. I’m going with no with its glaring omission for Gerwig’s direction and Margot Robbie’s snub to a lesser degree. That said, it is certainly feasible that AMPAS could’ve made room had this been a quintet.

The Holdovers

Alexander Payne’s dramedy was a winner in Supporting Actress for Da’Vine Joy Randolph with Paul Giamatti nominated in Actor and nods for Film Editing and Original Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. If Giamatti had taken lead actor or the screenplay been victorious, this would be a tougher choice. I think it’d be on the outside looking in.

Killers of the Flower Moon

Martin Scorsese’s historial epic had ten overall nominations behind Oppenheimer and Poor Things – directing, Actress (Lily Gladstone), Supporting Actor (Robert De Niro), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Production Design. It went 0 for 10 on the night.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes, but I don’t think it’s automatic. No nods for the adapted screenplay or Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor make me questions its inclusion. So do the zero trophies. Yet Scorsese’s clout causes me to grant it a spot.

Maestro

Bradley Cooper’s biopic of Leonard Bernstein is a seven-time nominee for Actor (Cooper), Actress (Carey Mulligan), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Sound. It did not pick up any of the hardware.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but it did perform quite well as far as nods. Cooper’s exclusion from Best Director was my deciding factor.

Past Lives

Celine Song’s romance was the least nominated of the BP contestants with Original Screenplay as its only other nom.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No and this was the easiest of the five to decide considering the amount of nominations.

Poor Things

The multi-genre experience from Yorgos Lanthimos was second only to Oppenheimer in terms of mentions with 11 including wins for Emma Stone in Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design. Other nods: director, Supporting Actor (Mark Ruffalo), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes and this was the easiest of the nine to leave in due to its volume of noms and victories.

The Zone of Interest

The wartime drama from Jonathan Glazer, with Anatomy of a Fall out of competition, easily took International Feature Film while also grabbing a Sound win and noms for direction and Adapted Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

I don’t think it is automatic, but yes. I nudged it just past Fall considering the IFF gold.

And that means my final 2023 five would be:

American Fiction

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

I plan to post my selection for 2024 in the near future!

July 4-6 Box Office Predictions

Dinosaurs seek to rule the Independence Day weekend courtesy of the seventh feature in the 32-year-old franchise with Jurassic World Rebirth. It is the only wide release newcomer stomping into multiplexes over the holiday and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Jurassic World Rebirth Box Office Prediction

The Jurassic series has proven itself to be critic proof in recent years and that should come into play with the new installment starring Scarlett Johansson. An opening weekend in nine figures is unlikely since it premieres on Wednesday (the last three World‘s achieved $100M+ out of the gate but debuted on traditional Friday to Sunday frames). I’m projecting a three-day in the $80 million ballpark with $130M+ when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday.

After a sizzling start, F1 with Brad Pitt will drop to second. With an A Cinemascore grade and appeal to adult moviegoers, you can expect impressive holds in the weekends to come. This may only ease around 30% and don’t be shocked if it’s even a little less for a strong runner-up position.

Holdovers will populate 3-6 with How to Train Your Dragon firmly in third and the lackluster Elio in fourth. Numbers five and six could be close between sequels 28 Years Later and M3GHAN 2.0, which short-circuited over the weekend.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $80.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $133 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. F1

Predicted Gross: $39.7 million

3. How to Train Your Dragon

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

4. Elio

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

5. 28 Years Later

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

6. M3GAN 2.0

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (June 27-29)

F1 or F1: The Movie, Joseph Kosinski’s follow-up to Top Gun: Maverick, revved up impressive results with $57 million, lapping my $46.2 million prediction. It also performed with top-notch earnings overseas. As mentioned, word-of-mouth should keep this in the zeitgeist over the weekends to come. A sequel is already in the planning stages.

How to Train Your Dragon, after two weeks atop the charts, was second with $19.5 million. That’s in line with my $19.1 million forecast as the live-action remake has fired up $200 million in three weeks.

Elio, after a worst ever Pixar premiere, didn’t hold up well in third with $10.4 million. I was more generous at $13 million as its sophomore plunge was a steep 50% (especially for its studio). This is undoubtedly one of the summer’s most significant flops.

Same goes for M3GAN 2.0. The sequel eschewed horror for a campier sci-fi tone and audiences rejected it. The fourth place showing was a DOA $10.2 million compared to the original’s $30 million. There’s no spinning that result for Blumhouse.

Finally, zombie threequel 28 Years Later plummeted 67% in its second outing with $9.7 million compared to my $12.6 million take. The ten-day tally is $50 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 13-15 Box Office Predictions

A live-action remake of an animated hit looks to replace another live-action remake of an animated hit for box office supremacy this weekend as How to Train Your Dragon debuts. We also have the rom com Materialists entering the marketplace. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers at these links:

How to Train Your Dragon Box Office Prediction
Materialists Box Office Prediction

Dragon, which updates DreamWorks Animation’s 2010 original, is expected to have a fiery start. At best, it could approach $100 million. I’m playing it a little safe and projecting mid 80s for what would easily be a franchise best kickoff after three previous animated offerings.

Materialists with Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans could reach $10M+ and I’ve got it just over that for third place. It could debut anywhere between 3-5 as it’ll hope to leg out well in subsequent weekends based on solid reviews.

As for holdovers, Disney’s Lilo & Stitch will relinquish its crown after three weeks atop the charts. The Dragon competition could mean a 50% range drop.

Ballerina didn’t impress in its opening (more on that below) and I’m guesstimating a mid to high 50s slide in its sophomore frame. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning should remain in the high five.

Here’s how I envision it playing out:

1. How to Train Your Dragon

Predicted Gross: $84.3 million

2. Lilo & Stitch

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million

3. Materialists

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

4. Ballerina

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $9 million

Box Office Results (June 6-8)

Lilo & Stitch once again held bragging rights as the family tale held in first with $32.3 million, in line with my $31.9 million call. The Mouse House hit has amassed $335 million after three weeks.

That means my prediction that John Wick spinoff Ballerina would be #1 was off base. The action extravaganza with Ana de Armas stalled in second with $24.5 million, well under my $36.8 million take. It’s a rare financial misstep for a series that had yet to experience such a thing.

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was third with $14.8 million, nearly matching my $15 million forecast as Tom Cruise’s eighth appearance as Ethan Hunt has made $149 million after its third outing.

Karate Kid: Legends was fourth with $8.5 million. My guess? $8.5 million! The 58% decline in its second weekend means the sequel has kicked up an unimpressive $35 million.

Final Destination Bloodlines rounded out the top five with $6.4 million and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. The four-week tally is $123 million.

That’s because I had Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme performing better. The auteur’s latest was sixth at $6.2 million. I went higher for the national expansion with $8.7 million. Counting its coastal release the previous weekend, Scheme stands at $7 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Neon Lights Up Cannes

No one can do Cannes like Neon. The indie film production company has ruled the French festival for six years straight when it comes to the Palme d’Or winner. That list consists of Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora. The first and last movies in that quintet went onto win Best Picture at the Oscars with Triangle and Anatomy nabbing nominations.

Neon once again had contenders to spare at this year’s competition and many assumed the grand prize would go to Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. That acclaimed family drama immediately established itself as an Oscar contender. Yet the Cannes jury (headed by Juliette Binoche) instead chose another Neon property in Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. It marks another festival triumph for the Iranian filmmaker. His 2000 feature The Circle took top honors in Venice while 2015’s Taxi was awarded best of at the Berlin Fest. Accident now enters the conversation for a BP mention from the Academy and it certainly is a major contender for International Feature Film.

As for the more favored Value, it settled for the Grand Prix designation which is basically runner-up (it went to BP nominee The Zone of Interest in 2023). As mentioned, Neon has high hopes for its future in the coming months.

The Jury Prize (which Emilia Pérez took last time around) was shared between Spanish/French coproduction Sirât from Oliver Laxe and Mascha Schilinski’s German generational tale Sound of Falling (which is also a sturdy hopeful in IFF).

Another major player for Neon is The Secret Agent, the 1970s set Brazilian political thriller. Kieber Mendonça Filho received the Director trophy while Wagner Moura is Best Actor. Look for Agent to have a potential presence in IFF while Moura’s lead campaign could be a real threat for Academy inclusion.

Nadia Melliti is your Best Actress for the French coming-of-age drama The Little Sister. The young actress emerged over heavy hitter Jennifer Lawrence from Die, My Love. Nevertheless Lawrence did strengthen her shot at a fifth Oscar play months down the road.

Some had pegged Richard Linklater’s Nouvelle Vague (which recounts the shooting of French classic Breathless) for some Riviera prizes, but it wasn’t to be. Other high profile premieres not found among the victors are Iranian drama Woman and Child (where Parinaz Izadyar was considered viable in Actress), Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme, and Julia Ducournau’s Titane follow-up Alpha.

Keep an eye on the blog as I continue to write individual posts for movies screened at Cannes. I hadn’t even gotten to Accident yet! As for next year, look to see what Neon’s backing when figuring out the favorites…

May 23-26 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (05/21/25): I am upping my Lilo & Stitch estimate considerably from $118.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $143.7 million from Friday to Monday to $159.7 million for the three-day and $196.6 million for the four-day. That would easily be a new Memorial Day weekend record.

Hollywood hopes moviegoers make it their mission to go to the movies over the long weekend as Disney’s Lilo & Stitch looks to rule the charts with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning placing second. There’s also The Last Rodeo from faith-based Angel Studios debuting and Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd’s dark comedy Friendship expanding wide. My detailed prediction posts on the quartet can be accessed here:

Lilo & Stitch Box Office Prediction
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning Box Office Prediction
The Last Rodeo Box Office Prediction
Friendship Box Office Prediction

Nostalgia and the Mouse House’s marketing muscle should propel Lilo & Stitch to more impressive heights than, say, Snow White from earlier this year. I have the live-action version of the 2002 animated tale reaching just under $120 million for the Friday to Sunday portion of Memorial Day weekend and just over $140 million for the four-day.

Tom Cruise should easily achieve runner-up status with the eighth and (final?) pic in his nearly 30-year-old franchise. I am estimating that The Final Reckoning will somewhat capitalize on its finale status with a three-day near $60 million (edging predecessor Dead Reckoning) and north of $70 million counting Monday.

The Last Rodeo could place sixth while I have Friendship in 7th place. Either has the chance to over perform, but I doubt it considering the amount of competition.

As for holdovers, Final Destination Bloodlines got off to a terrific start (more on that below), but should experience the hefty decline that usually greets horror titles. Holdovers The New Avengers, Sinners, and Minecraft should see minimal declines as is custom over this particular holiday.

And with that, here’s my top 8 take and keep in mind that grosses for returning flicks are a Friday to Monday forecast:

1. Lilo & Stitch

Predicted Gross: $196.6 million (Friday to Monday); $159.7 million (Friday to Sunday)

2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $80.8 million (Friday to Monday); $64.4 million (Friday to Sunday)

3. Final Destination Bloodlines

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

4. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

5. The New Avengers

Predicted Gross: $14 million

6. The Last Rodeo

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (Friday to Monday); $6.4 million (Friday to Sunday)

7. Friendship

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (Friday to Monday); $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday)

8. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (May 16-18)

As mentioned, Final Destination Bloodlines logged a far better than anticipated gross with $51.6 million. That’s easily the best premiere in the 25-year-old franchise and should kickstart plenty more Destination‘s to come. It surpassed my $42.2 million prediction and represents another success story for WB behind A Minecraft Movie and Sinners.

The New Avengers/Thunderbolts* fell to second after two weeks on top with $16.6 million, a tad shy of my $18.1 million prediction. The MCU adventure sits at $155 million after three weeks.

Sinners was third with $15.2 million (I said $15.9 million) as it has now bitten off $240 million in its five weeks.

A Minecraft Movie was fourth with $5.9 million compared to my $5.2 million call as the mega blockbuster has made $416 million after seven weeks.

The Accountant 2 rounded out the top five with $4.7 million, on target with my $4.6 million number. The sequel’s total is $58 million in four weeks.

Finally, critically drubbed Hurry Up Tomorrow starring The Weeknd stumbled in sixth with $3.3 million and that’s under my $4.5 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 9-11 Box Office Predictions

The movie formerly known as Thunderbolts* looks to rule the box office once again with Sinners firmly in the runner-up position in this second May frame. That’s because there’s no new wide releases to challenge them and the top five should look similar to the month’s first weekend.

The MCU’s 36th entry Thunderbolts* (we’ll get to that asterisk) opened similarly to 2021 franchise titles Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75 million) and Eternals ($71 million). Shang dropped in the mid-50s in its sophomore outing while Eternals fell a steeper 62%. With solid word-of-mouth and scant competition, a low to mid 50s decline is where I see this ending up.

Sinners looks to continue its meager drops and should see mid-20s in its fourth go-round while A Minecraft Movie, The Accountant 2, and Until Dawn should all hold at 3-5.

Back to that asterisk. So… (spoiler alert?… but not really) Disney/Marvel revealed today that Thunderbolts* is actually titled The New Avengers and it is listed that way on official materials. This all makes sense after you’ve seen it. Therefore I will honor the studio’s wishes and call it that moving forward.

Here’s how I see the high 5 shaking out:

1. The New Avengers

Predicted Gross: $33.8 million

2. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $24 million

3. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

5. Until Dawn

Predicted Gross: $2.2 million

Box Office Results (May 2-4)

Thund…,errr, The New Avengers came in at the lower end of its anticipated range with $74.3 million, falling shy of my $79.3 million call. It’s not a bad result for the superhero tale, but it is several million short of what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February and nowhere near the earnings of previous sagas with the word Avengers in it.

Sinners hauled in another $33.1 million, in line with my $34 million forecast. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick has amassed $179 million in three weeks.

A Minecraft Movie was third with $13.7 million, slightly topping my $12.5 million projection. The Warner Bros smash is just under $400 million at $398 million after four weeks.

The Accountant 2 saw its numbers plummet 61% in weekend #2 with $9.4 million. That’s below my more generous $12.8 million prediction. The ten-day tally is $41 million.

Video game based horror pic Until Dawn rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.4 million) for $14 million in its two weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Sinners (Take II)

On rare occasions, the need arises to update my Oscar prognosis on a particular picture if warranted. When I penned my post for Ryan Coogler’s Sinners on April 13th, I didn’t discount its awards potential. I wrote of its solid chances in down-the-line competitions including Ludwig Goransson’s lauded score and the sound and production design.

However, I also wrote this:

So could Sinners score above-the-line mentions? I think it’s possible, but I wouldn’t predict it at the moment. Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay could materialize depending on how competition shakes out in the months ahead.

I don’t need to wait until the months ahead to revise my remarks. Sinners has taken the box office by storm in addition to its critical acclaim. When my initial write-up was published nearly three weeks ago, the vampire drama stood at 100% on RT. It barely lost any steam with 98% at press time, a 97% audience score and 84 on Metacritic.

On the financial front, Coogler’s latest has taken in $123 million domestically after less than two weeks and it should reach $250 million or higher. Sinners has become part of the cultural zeitgeist and that’s a recipe for a strong showing this awards season.

So what’s the best case scenario for this? The ceiling has undeniably gotten higher. I now believe that Sinners will be nominated for Best Picture with Director and Original Screenplay as major possibilities. In addition to the aforementioned Score, Production Design, and Sound, there are other below the line categories where it could pop up. That includes the new Casting race, Original Song (where the track “I Lied to You” from cast member Miles Caton might stand the best shot), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. Regarding that new casting competition, I’m confident this will be in a sturdy position to vie for Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards next year.

I didn’t discuss the actors involved in mid-April because I wasn’t seriously considering their inclusion. That has changed. Michael B. Jordan could factor into the Best Actor race. In Supporting Actress, it could be Hailee Steinfeld or Wunmi Mosaku (with the former probably having an edge to nab her second nod after 2010’s True Grit). For Supporting Actor, there’s Delroy Lindo, Caton, or Jack O’Connell. Some of this may come down to who Warner Bros mounts campaigns for. The narrative for Lindo might be tempting. Five years ago, he probably narrowly missed the cut for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods. He’s a well-respected veteran actor who’s never been nominated and the Academy could look to rectify that.

Back to that best case scenario. If all went perfectly, that would be 16 nominations and the record stands at 14 (shared by Titanic, All About Eve, and La La Land). Do I think that’ll happen? No. Would 12 or 13 nods surprise me? No.

Some prognosticators may think it’s too early to think anything has secured one of the ten BP slots. And there’s always the matter of a horror movie making the cut. Yet Get Out and The Substance brought the genre into the big dance in the past decade. As for the timeline, it was rather clear that Dune: Part Two was going to be a Warner Bros hopeful at this juncture in 2024 and that turned out to be accurate. Another counterargument is that WB will focus on Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. Time will tell on that one, but there’s no reason the studio can’t have two contenders and I’m skeptical (based on the trailer) that Battle is a surefire play over Sinners.

Three weeks ago I wasn’t predicting Sinners for BP and beyond “at the moment”. That moment arrived quickly for me to reconsider. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

May 2-4 Box Office Predictions

The summer 2025 box office season gets underway with Marvel’s Thunderbolts*. The 36th franchise entry looks to make noise atop the charts and you peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Thunderbolts* Box Office Prediction

With solid early buzz, my high 70s projection gives it about $10 million less than what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February. The debut would put it in line with general expectations as it’ll hope to leg out impressively throughout May.

Sinners was #1 once again for a second frame following an astonishing hold (more on that below). The MCU competition should mean a heftier slide than the sophomore outing, but I still have it only easing around 25%. That would mean a third weekend north of $30 million.

Third place could be a close contest between holdovers The Accountant 2 and A Minecraft Movie. I have the former dropping close to 50% with Minecraft experiencing a mid 40s decline.

Fifth place should belong to Until Dawn with around a high 50s to 60% plummet (typical for the horror genre).

Here’s how I have that high five playing out:

1. Thunderbolts*

Predicted Gross: $79.3 million

2. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $34 million

3. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

4. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

5. Until Dawn

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (April 25-27)

Multiplexes were packed as four features topped $20 million in sales with Sinners shocking prognosticators with a mere 5% drop. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick with Michael B. Jordan sucked up another $45.7 million, blasting past my $33.1 million prediction. In ten days, the Oscar contender stands at $123 million with $300 million domestic potentially in its sights.

The rerelease of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith for its 20th anniversary landed one of the best reissue premieres of all time with $25.4 million in a surprise second That edges past my $22.6 million call. The third feature (and best reviewed) of the second trilogy returned to theaters for a one-week engagement (that’s why you don’t see it reflected in my projections for next weekend). A nostalgia factor clearly helped Sith as it almost tripled what The Phantom Menace‘s rerelease in February 2024 earned for its start. The $25 million in extra coin for Sith pushed the total domestic haul to $405 million over two decades.

The highest grossing truly new film was The Accountant 2 as the Ben Affleck action sequel was third with $24.5 million. I was right on target at $24.3 million, but I thought it would be #2. Its opening gross is right in line with the 2016 original.

A Minecraft Movie was fourth in weekend #4 with $22.7 million (I said $21.4 million) as the Warner Bros video game adaptation has collected $379 million.

New horror pic Until Dawn (also based on a video game) rounded out the top five with $8 million. The unimpressive figure is on pace with my $7.8 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…