Tag: film

97th Academy Awards Predictions: November 17th Edition

My first Oscar predictions in two weeks and it’s about what narratives I’m buying and which ones I’m selling. For example, I’m currently not sold that Paramount’s September 5 is the contender that some other prognosticators think it is.

On the flip side, I am starting to buy that Conclave is on the rise. The Focus Features effort from Edward Berger is performing well at the box office for an adult skewering drama. I think it has to a shot to win the big prize and that’s why you’ll see it elevated in multiple categories.

While my BP and directorial and Best Actress lineups are unchanged as far as hopefuls, Daniel Craig (Queer) returns to my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). In Supporting Actor, it is the same five but Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is perched atop the list for the first time. In Supporting Actress, I’m banking on Isabella Rossellini potentially riding that Conclave goodwill and that leaves Ariana Grande (Wicked) on the outside looking in.

You can read all the movement below and the next update should arrive on Thanksgiving weekend!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Real Pain (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Substance (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)

15. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 8) (+2)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)

7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

John Magaro, September 5

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Substance (PR: 9) (+3)

7. September 5 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Blitz (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Universal Language (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

9. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Grand Tour (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Armand

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Spellbound (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Most Precious of Cargoes

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daughters (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Union (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gaucho Gaucho

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Anora (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Substance (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)

4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicked (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Beyond” from Moana 2 (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Blitz (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)

4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Twisters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Civil War

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Twisters (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Better Man (PR: 6) (E)

7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Here

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

9 Nominations

The Brutalist, Conclave

6 Nominations

Wicked

5 Nominations

Anora, Blitz, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Saturday Night, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Gladiator II Box Office Prediction

Nearly 25 years after Ridley Scott’s original epic stormed the box office and the Academy Awards, Gladiator II enters cinematic arenas on November 22nd. Paul Mescal stars as Lucius, son of Russell Crowe’s Maximus with Scott back in the director’s chair. Costars include Pedro Pascal, Joseph Quinn, Fred Hechinger, Derek Jacobi, Connie Nielsen (back as the sister to Joaquin Phoenix’s departed Commodus), and Denzel Washington (generating Oscar buzz for his role).

With a reported budget north of $200 million, the long-in-development sequel should capitalize on a quarter century of goodwill from the Best Picture winning part 1. Reviews are decent with 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and 67 on Metacritic.

The $60-$75 million forecast for its debut sounds about right. I am hesitant to take the over as some viewers may wait until the following Thanksgiving frame to make the multiplex trek. I’ll put it in the upper end of that range for a second place showing to Wicked.

Gladiator II opening weekend prediction: $69.8 million

For my Wicked prediction, click here:

Wicked Box Office Prediction

For my Bonhoeffer prediction, click here:

Bonhoeffer Box Office Prediction

November 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans headline this weekend’s sole wide release with the Christmas action comedy Red One. It looks to dominate the charts with an eye on a lengthy holiday run. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Red One Box Office Prediction

Early word-of-mouth is a bit troubling with a 30% Rotten Tomatoes score. I don’t think it gets to the top end of its anticipated range ($40 million). A mid to high 20s output would be considered a cold opening, but families may wait until later in the month to check it out.

Holdovers should all drop a notch as we await heavy hitters like Wicked, Gladiator II, and Moana 2. Venom: The Last Dance should dip to second after three weeks atop the charts. There’s a decent chance that The Best Christmas Pageant Ever stays in third as it might have a better sophomore hold than Heretic. The Wild Robot should round out the top five and here’s how I envision it breaking down:

1. Red One

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million

2. Venom: The Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

4. Heretic

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

5. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (November 8-10)

Tom Hardy’s loopy third take on his comic book creation was #1 for a third frame as Venom: The Last Dance repeated with $15.9 million. That’s a bit ahead of my $14.3 million projection as the total is $114 million thus far. It won’t match its two predecessors, but it has posted solid holds weekend to weekend.

Horror thriller Heretic with Hugh Grant came in right where it was forecasted in second with $11 million (I said $11.2 million). Despite strong reviews, this certainly didn’t over perform and a so-so C+ Cinemascore could mean it fades fairly quickly.

Yuletide dramedy The Best Christmas Pageant Ever was third with $10.7 million, outpacing my $8 million call. This will hope for smallish declines as the festive season is just underway.

The Wild Robot was fourth with $6.6 million, edging my $5.5 million prediction. The potential Animated Feature Oscar frontrunner has collected $130 million after seven weeks.

Smile 2 was fifth with $5.1 million (I went with $4.4 million) as the horror sequel sits at $60 million in its four weeks of play.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Gladiator II

At the dawn of the 21st century, Ridley Scott’s epic Gladiator scored a colossal 12 Oscar nominations and won a handful including Best Picture, Actor (Russell Crowe), Costume Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Other nods included Scott’s direction (he lost to Steven Soderbergh for Traffic), Supporting Actor (Joaquin Phoenix), and Original Screenplay.

Nearly a quarter century later, Gladiator II is in multiplexes November 22nd. Its battle for Academy recognition could be more challenging. Scott returns behind the camera with Paul Mescal leading a cast that includes Pedro Pascal, Joseph Quinn, Fred Hechinger, Connie Nielsen (reprising her role from part 1), and Denzel Washington.

As can sometimes be the case, initial screening reactions from the long-in-development sequel might have been a tad hyperbolic. The review embargo lifted today paints a clearer picture. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 78% with Metacritic at 67. Somewhat surprisingly, that’s in line with its predecessor’s numbers. Yet most critics say this doesn’t measure up to the original.

A Best Picture nom is not out of the question, but I’m currently projecting it won’t make the cut. Its strongest shot in BP will come if voters feel the need to throw at least a couple massive blockbusters in the mix. Dune: Part Two and Wicked (which opens the same day) could fit the bill. Mr. Scott’s direction and the screenplay are long shots. As for the down the line competitions, it could land mentions in Costume Design, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Original Score is possible but unlikely and I’d say the same for Cinematography. When it comes to wins in those tech derbies, it’ll have to contend with Dune which is in a better position for victories.

While Crowe and nemesis Joaquin Phoenix were both up for their performances at the 73rd ceremony, only Denzel Washington seems to be viable at the 97th. He’s being singled out for his work and could be headed toward nomination #10 in Supporting Actor. If he makes the final quintet, a win is probably not in the cards as I’d certainly put him behind Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) at press time. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…


Oscar Predictions: Paddington in Peru

The title character that first debuted over 65 years ago in Michael Bond’s children’s books is onscreen for the third time via Paddington in Peru. The mix of live-action and animation arrives a decade after Paddington and seven years after the sequel with Dougal Wilson taking over directorial duties from Paul King. Ben Whishaw is back voicing the bear with a supporting cast including Hugh Bonneville, Emily Mortimer (replacing Sally Hawkins), Julie Walters, Jim Broadbent, Madeleine Harris, Samuel Joslin, Olivia Colman, Imelda Staunton, and Antonio Banderas. It arrives in the United Kingdom Friday with its North American release not coming until January 17th (therefore making it eligible for the Oscars after the next one).

This is, in fact, more of a BAFTA Predictions write-up than an Oscar one. Neither of Peru‘s predecessors generated Academy attention despite warm reviews. On the other hand, the British Academy bit. The original was nominated for Best British Film and for its Adapted Screenplay. Part 2 was up for the same pair of awards plus Hugh Grant in Supporting Actor. The pics went 0 for 5 in terms of victories.

The Rotten Tomatoes score for the third adventure is 91%. Yet it’s Metacritic that tells the real story. Paddington had 77 on that site while the sequel improved upon that with 88. Peru is stuck at 58. That probably means that BAFTA will not honor part 3 in any way. My Oscar… and BAFTA related… Prediction posts will continue…

97th Academy Awards Predictions: November 3rd Edition

My votes are in for my latest Oscar predictions at the 97th Academy Awards and I’ve elected to elevate Wicked into my BP top ten with Gladiator II sliding out. This is based on buzz for early screenings and I will readily admit that sometimes those viewings can elicit exaggerated reactions. We’ll see if Wicked sticks around in a way that Gladiator II didn’t (the two pics both open November 22nd).

In other movement, Edward Berger (Conclave) is back in my directorial quintet with RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) on the outside looking in. The five spot in Best Actor switches to Sebastian Stan playing a certain 45th POTUS with Daniel Craig (Queer) slipping. Ariana Grande’s witchy Wicked work enters the Supporting Actress derby with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) falling to sixth place. In Supporting Actor, on the other hand, Conclave’s Stanley Tucci re-enters with Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) now out. You can peruse all the activity below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

11. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-3)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-1)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Substance (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Room Next Door

September 5

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

8. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-2)

10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)

8. September 5 (PR: 4) (-4)

9. The Substance (PR: 9) (E)

10. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

His Three Daughters

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (E)

5. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Grand Tour (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Armand (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (E)

4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Orion and the Dark

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Union (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daughters (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dahomey (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Maria (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10 (E)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Gladiator II

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Substance (PR: 4) (+2)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

7. Maria (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Challengers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emila Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+4)

4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 6) (-2)

9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Beyond” from Moana 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

5. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)

10. Civil War (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Brutalist

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Twisters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Better Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Wicked (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (E)

10. Here (PR: 5) (-5)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

8 Nominations

Conclave

6 Nominations

Wicked

5 Nominations

Anora, Blitz, Gladiator II, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

Maria, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Twisters

1 Nomination

The Apprentice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, Nosferatu, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, The Substance, Union, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

Oscar Predictions: Music by John Williams

Music by John Williams starts playing on Disney+ tomorrow after premiering at the AFI Fest last week. The documentary centers on the legendary title subject composer and Steven Spielberg protege who is a 54-time Oscar nominee (second only to Walt Disney) and 5x winner. Laurent Bouzereau directs and he’s best known for numerous making of pics for features including Spielberg’s Close Encounters of the Third Kind, Raiders of the Lost Ark, E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial, and Jurassic Park (all of which Williams scored). He also recently made the Faye Dunaway centered doc Faye.

All reviews are fresh at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The Metacritic score is 72 and that tells more of the story. While positive, there’s plenty of write-ups calling it more of a serviceable and satisfactory tribute. I don’t think that’ll be enough for a Documentary Feature nod about the man who’s been to many a ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Wallace & Gromit Vengeance Most Fowl

Inventor Wallace and his canine pal Gromit are no strangers to the Academy Awards. Two of their tales (1994’s Wallace & Gromit: The Wrong Trousers and 1996’s A Close Shave) won the Oscar for Best Animated Film while 2010’s A Matter of Loaf and Death was nominated. 2005’s feature-length The Curse of the Were-Rabbit took home gold for Animated Feature, beating out Corpse Bride and Howl’s Moving Castle.

Nearly 20 years after the previous long form Wallace pic, Vengeance Most Fowl premiered at AFI Fest and will stream on Netflix beginning January 3rd. A limited December theatrical bow makes it Academy eligible. Early reviews are strong with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic. Nick Park (the legendary animator who created the W + G flicks in addition to Chicken Run and Shaun the Sheep) and Merlin Crossingham co-direct. Voiceover work comes from Ben Whitehead, Peter Kay, Reece Shearsmith, and Lauren Patel.

I’ve had this ranked fourth or fifth in my Animated Feature rankings for months and don’t see that changing after the initial reaction. I would put it behind The Wild Robot, Inside Out 2, and Memoir of a Snail in terms of victory possibility. While it’s no guarantee it makes the final cut, the past history indicates its chances are quite strong. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Here

30 years ago, Forrest Gump was nominated for a whopping 13 Oscars and won six including Picture, Director (Robert Zemeckis), Actor (Tom Hanks), and Adapted Screenplay. A Forrest reunion is occurring on November 1st when Here opens. Zemeckis is behind the camera for the family drama that stars Hanks and his Gump costar Robin Wright. It is written by that film’s screenwriter Eric Roth.

Debuting at the AFI Fest this weekend, the gimmicky pic is based on a 2014 graphic novel from Richard McGuire. Set over many decades in a fixed camera location spot (primarily a living room), the supporting cast includes Paul Bettany, Kelly Reilly, Michelle Dockery, and Gwilym Lee.

Awards lightning was not anticipated to strike twice with Here and early reaction has solidified that notion. The Metacritic score is just 46. Any hope for above-the-line noms have dissipated. Where Here could contend is Visual Effects where the de-aging work sees Hanks and Wright as teens. Some of the first reviews say these effects can be distracting and still have a ways to go to be convincing. Yet I wouldn’t discount the possibility of a VE nod considering 2019’s The Irishman made the cut and the work here is generally seen as an improvement. There’s also some praise for Alan Silverstri’s score, but that race may be a little crowded for Here‘s inclusion. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Here Box Office Prediction

Reuniting the director, screenwriter, and two leads from Forrest Gump some three decades after the Best Picture winner’s release, Here is present in multiplexes on November 1st. The high concept family drama utilizes a stationery home camera shot spanning decades of time. Robert Zemeckis directs and Eric Roth penned the script. Tom Hanks and Robin Wright headline a cast that includes Paul Bettany, Kelly Reilly, Michelle Dockery, and Gwilym Lee.

The collection of talent mentioned above might have generated big bucks if it arrived in the decade following Mr. Gump’s global treks. I suspect this may struggle to find the older audience it seeks. There has yet to be any awards buzz and that could have helped.

While Hanks recently had an adult themed hit via A Man Called Otto, it had the benefit of being based on a well-known novel. Here‘s best hope is that viewers who do see it will tell their friends about it and that it plays into Thanksgiving. That could be a stretch as I’m forecasting this will only reach a troubling mid single digits.

Here opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million