The 82nd Golden Globe Awards will come our way in a month on January 5th with Nikki Glaser handling hosting duties. Nominations are out this coming Monday (12/09). Readers of the blog know that I do a whole lotta Oscar speculating. That’s not the case with the GG’s but I’m giving you take on who and what will be nominated.
For the Globes, there are six nominees in each race with the exception of Cinematic and Box Office Achievement where there’s 8. I’ll give my picks along with a runner-up. Some quick notes: the Globes divide their Picture and lead acting derbies into Drama and Musical/Comedy. The designations below are the reported slots where films and performers are contending. Yes, there’s interesting choices with Heretic in comedy. On the flip side, if A Complete Unknown had submitted in Musical/Comedy, Timothée Chalamet might be the easy frontrunner in Best Actor.
Next week I’ll have a recap up with how I did and my early frontrunners for winners!
Best Motion Picture – Drama
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
ALTERNATE – The Room Next Door
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Anora
Challengers
Emilia Pérez
A Real Pain
The Substance
Wicked
ALTERNATE – A Different Man
Best Director
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Jon M. Chu, Wicked
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
ALTERNATE – Edward Berger, Conclave
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
Kate Winslet, Lee
ALTERNATE – Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Daniel Craig, Queer
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
ALTERNATE – John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comed
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
June Squibb, Thelma
Zendaya, Challengers
ALTERNATE – Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Hugh Grant, Heretic
Michael Keaton, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Glen Powell, Hit Man
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool & Wolverine
Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
ALTERNATE – Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night
Best Supporting Actress
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
ALTERNATE – Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
ALTERNATE – Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Best Screenplay
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Sing Sing
The Substance
ALTERNATE – A Real Pain
Best Animated Feature
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Moana 2
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
ALTERNATE – Piece by Piece
Best Non-English Language Film
All We Imagine as Light
Emilia Pérez
The Girl with the Needle
I’m Still Here
Kneecap
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
ALTERNATE – Universal Language
Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Deadpool & Wolverine
Despicable Me 4
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Inside Out 2
Twisters
Wicked
ALTERNATE – Moana 2
Best Score
The Brutalist
Challengers
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
The Wild Robot
ALTERNATE – The Room Next Door
Best Song
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
“Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper
“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot
“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
“Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece
ALTERNATE – “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl
That means I have these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
The Brutalist
6 Nominations
Conclave
5 Nominations
Anora, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked
4 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
3 Nominations
Challengers, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Babygirl, Despicable Me 4, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Hard Truths, Heretic, Hit Man, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, Lee, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nickel Boys, The Outrun, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Thelma, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
A beloved fantasy franchise gets the anime and prequel treatment when The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim debuts December 13th. Set nearly 200 years before the events of Peter Jackson’s Oscar-winning trilogy, Kenji Kamiyama directs the animated adventure with Brian Cox, Gala Wise, Luke Pasqualino, and Miranda Otto providing voiceover work.
Obviously there’s a built-in audience for any adaptation of J.R.R. Tolkien’s creations. That makes this estimate tricky. A small portion of moviegoers may turn up not even knowing that it is anime. Some may stay away for that very reason. There’s also Kraven the Hunter opening the same weekend that could siphon off some action fans.
This certainly has the chance to exceed my number, but I’m projecting high single digits for a lackluster showing.
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim opening weekend prediction: $8 million
The National Board of Review often marches to the beat of its own awards drum when it comes to selecting their annual pictures and performers. In 2014, only four of their eleven top movies ended up generating an Academy nomination for Best Picture. In the past decade, there’s been one other year with just four and three years where it was five and two where it was six. There’s three other years where it’s seven and that’s as high as it gets. In most years, NBR names a Best Film with ten other favorite movies listed alphabetically. During that time period, here’s just a sampling of NBR top films that probably never came close to an Oscar BP nod: Fury, The LEGO Movie, Hail, Caesar!, Patriots Day, Baby Driver, Downsizing, Waves, The Forty-Year-Old Version, Red Rocket, and Ferrari.
I give all that context because there were some unexpected selections in their list today… but not really given their history. Jon M. Chu’s Wicked is Best Film. That one is anticipated to generate an Academy BP slot. This particular group often goes with blockbuster material like Wicked for their winner. Recent examples include Mad Max: Fury Road in 2015 (guess we should’ve seen that Furiosa nod coming) and Top Gun: Maverick in 2022.
Some others… not so much. The other ten are as follows: Anora, Babygirl, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Gladiator II, Juror #2, Queer, A Real Pain, and Sing Sing. Only half of those features (Wicked, Anora, Conclave, A Real Pain, Sing Sing) are currently in my Oscar BP ten. Babygirl, Furiosa, Juror #2, and Queer likely stand little chance at the big dance while A Complete Unknown and Gladiator II have better shots.
There are some notable omissions from the list like The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, and Dune: Part Two. That said, recent BP victors The Shape of Water, Parasite, and CODA were nowhere to be found with NBR.
The Wicked love continued in Director with Jon M. Chu being named. You have to go all the way to Martin Scorsese and 2006’s The Departed for the last NBR/Oscar match.
Nicole Kidman is your Best Actress for Babygirl and Daniel Craig is Best Actor for Queer. Both are considered bubble candidates for Oscar (I currently have Craig in and Kidman out). I will note that 8 of the last 10 NBR Actress winners have achieved an Academy spot. In Actor, it’s also 8.
Kieran Culkin racked up another Supporting Actor prize (right after the New York Film Critics Circle) for A Real Pain and Elle Fanning is Supporting Actress (a bit of an out of nowhere pick) for A Complete Unknown. The previous 10 Supporting Actor victors for NBR received Oscar attention as Culkin is expected to. For Supporting Actress, it’s 8.
In other NBR news for categories that correlate to the Academy Awards, Hard Truths and Sing Sing are your respective Original and Adapted Screenplay recipients. Flow snatched another Animated Feature trophy while The Seed of the Sacred Fig is their #1 International Feature. The Documentary prize went to Sugarcane with Nosferatu triumphant in Cinematography.
Keep an eye on this blog for all precursor Oscar chatter!
With Chevy Chase having clocked in at #14, we move to another SNL original cast member in 13th and that’s Gilda Radner. An Emmy winner for her work on the show, the Second City alum was an early breakout in 1975 with characters like Roseanne Roseannadanna, Emily Litella, Judy Miller, and Lisa Loopner (one half of The Nerds alongside Bill Murray).
She was also known for an impression of Barbara Walters (or Baba Wawa) and made us laugh and smile dancing alongside Steve Martin. With a mix of vulnerability and plain hilarity, she would influence many a Not Ready for Prime Time Player to follow. #12 will be up soon!
Seventeen out of the past 20 New York Film Critics Circle recipients for Best Film have achieved a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars including winners No Country for Old Men, The Hurt Locker, and The Artist. Will Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist join that list? It’s almost a certainty. The epic historical drama won the NYFCC top prize in addition to Adrien Brody’s performance for Best Actor. These are the first major precursor honors for the pic I currently have ranked #1 in my BP derby (same goes Brody). It’s highly unlikely to be the last.
Corbet, however, did not take Director. That honor went to RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys and his film also took the Cinematography prize. I currently don’t have Ross in my director lineup though I do have it scoring a BP nod. 11 out of the previous 15 behind the camera winners did end up with an Oscar nomination.
In Best Actress, it was Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. Half of the previous ten NYFCC leading women received Academy recognition. That seems appropriate as Jean-Baptiste’s odds are around 50/50 in my view.
That’s not the case in Supporting Actor where Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) took that Big Apple competition. He’s widely expected to be one of the final five and perhaps even make a podium walk.
The NYFCC did manage to provide a shocker with Carol Kane taking Supporting Actress for the little-seen Between the Temples. The veteran performer is not expected to contend at the Oscars.
Finally, All We Imagine as Light (which India did not submit as their horse in International Feature Film) is the Best Foreign Language Film. No Other Land, which could be a player in the Academy’s Documentary Feature race, was NYFCC’s Best Non-Fiction Film. Both of those pics won their respective categories at the Gotham Awards yesterday as well. Latvian tale Flow is the Best Animated Feature and it should follow suit with Oscar.
Keep an eye on this blog for all Oscar precursor coverage!
Tonight’s Gotham Awards were not expected to provide any major clues as to how the awards season will play out. That might hold true, but I do think the winner of Best Feature could be a preview for one picture in particular.
Adam Schimberg’s A Different Man was the surprise winner in the big race over the heavily favored Anora from Sean Baker. For those that didn’t believe Anora would away with the top prize from the New York group that honors indie movies, the runner-up pick would’ve been RaMell Ross’s Nickel Boys. Both of them are anticipated to nab BP nods (especially Anora). And while that still is the case, it does make me question all the prognosticators who have Anora ranked #1 (a lot do). I haven’t yet and have always slotted it 2nd or 3rd behind (lately) The Brutalist or Conclave. By the way, Challengers and Babygirl were the other contenders.
So… should we be thinking about A Different Man in Best Picture? I wouldn’t make that leap. However, it’s worth noting that four of the past five Gotham Feature victors managed a BP slot: 2019’s Marriage Story, 2020’s Nomadland (which won), 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once (another winner), and last year’s Past Lives. The exception is The Lost Daughter from 2021. Don’t expect Different to all of a sudden pop into my top 10 in BP, but you might see it between 11-15 in other possibilities when I update.
The no-show in victories for Anora continued in Director as RaMell Ross was honored for Nickel Boys. Strangely enough, this was the first year where the Gothams bestowed an individual behind the camera prize so comparisons cannot be made. That said, Ross is certainly a possibility at the Oscars though I currently don’t have him in my quintet.
The Gothams do not separate gender in their lead and supporting races as of 2021. Voters clearly were taken with Sing Sing as Colman Domingo was Outstanding Lead Performer and Clarence Maclin was Outstanding Supporting Performer.
For Domingo, he beat out his anticipated competitor in Best Actor Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) as well as plenty of Actress possibilities like Mikey Madison (Anora), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), Demi Moore (The Substance), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), and Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl). Since 2021, only Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) received an Oscar nod after winning this category.
Maclin was selected over other potential Supporting Actor rivals including Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Yura Borisov (Anora), and A Different Man‘s Adam Pearson. Supporting Actress hopefuls Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) and Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) were also in the mix. The winners of supporting here in 2021 (Troy Kotsur for CODA) and 2022 (Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere) went onto take the Supporting Actor Oscar. Last year’s recipient Charles Melton (May December) didn’t make the Academy’s cut. Both Domingo and Maclin are expected to receive Oscar nominations.
Speaking of His Three Daughters, it won Screenplay. Yet you can’t read much into that because none of the other nominees (Between the Temples, Evil Does Not Exist, Femme, Janet Planet) are expected to contend at the Academy Awards.
The precursors for Oscars are begin to roll out and keep an eye on this blog for all the coverage!
The post Thanksgiving frame, as it normally is, should be ruled by leftovers as Indian action fest Pushpa 2: The Rule looks to be the only newcomer in the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Moana 2 decimated all Turkey Day weekend records (more on that below). The Mouse House sequel might see a drop in the high 50s to low 60s range and that would still be good for $50M+ in its sophomore outing.
It should manage to edge phenomenon Wicked in its third go-round. However, if the Broadway adaptation only dips 40% or below, it could leapfrog Moana for the #1 spot. I have it easing in the low to mid 40s.
Gladiator II and Red One should stay in 3rd and 4th with Pushpa 2 in the mid singe digits for the five spot.
Here’s how I have it playing out:
1. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $55.1 million
2. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $48 million
3. Gladiator II
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million
4. Red One
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
5. Pushpa 2: The Rule
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
Box Office Results (November 29-December 1)
Disney’s Frozen II went into Thanksgiving 2024 with the best ever five-day take over the holiday. Moana 2 topped it with $100 million to spare! The follow-up to 2016’s original surpassed expectations with $139.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $225.4 million since its Wednesday bow. That crushes my respective takes of $92.1 million and $130.3 million. As anticipated, it did propel the box office to its highest Thanksgiving earnings of all time.
Wicked kept bringing in crowds in second with $81.1 million, zooming past my $71.6 million forecast. Already the largest grossing Broadway adaptation in history, the two-week tally is $263 million.
Gladiator II was third with $31 million, slashing beyond my $27.5 million prediction. The Ridley Scott sequel to his Best Picture winner stands at $111 million after two outings.
Fourth place was Red One, which declined only 4% for $12.7 million. I was less charitable at $9.4 million and the three-week total is $75 million.
The Best Christmas Pageant Ever rounded out the top five at $3.2 million. I incorrectly had it outside of the high five and it has made $31 million after four weeks.
Venom: The Last Dance, which I had in 5th, was 7th with $2.2 million (I said $2.9 million) for $137 million in six weeks.
Acclaimed filmmaker Robert Eggers brings his version of Nosferatu to multiplexes on Christmas Day with Bill Skarsgård embodying the iconic vampire. Based on the 1922 classic German film which was spawned from Bram Stoker’s Dracula, this is Eggers’ fourth feature after the critically praised The Witch, The Lighthouse, and The Northman. Lily-Rose Depp, Nicholas Hoult, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Emma Corrin, Ralph Ineson, Simon McBurney, and Willem Dafoe populate his dark vision.
The review embargo lifted over three weeks before the opening and critics are (sorry…) mostly sinking their teeth into this. With 96% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic, the question isn’t whether Nosferatu gets Oscar nods. It’s how many. That’s because I’m confident tech nods are coming its way. Makeup & Hairstyling, Costume Design, Cinematography, and Production Design all seem achievable and I had it nabbing those four nods in my predictions from yesterday. Sound and (to a lesser degree) Visual Effects and Original Score could be on the menu.
As for above the line mentions, that is more questionable. Lily-Rose Depp is drawing raves for her lead work, but Best Actress is probably too crowded and I don’t currently have her in my top 10. Skarsgård, who terrified us as Pennywise in It, is being lauded for his supporting role. Yet we know the Academy doesn’t warm to performances in the horror genre.
I wouldn’t completely discount Picture or Eggers in director. Nosferatu‘s stock could rise exponentially if it grabs AFI or National Board of Review best of slots. For now, I feel more comfortable having the film and its maker on the outside looking in for recognition while below the lines noms should be materializing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As December dawns, my first Oscar predictions in two weeks have substantial changes for us to mull over. It begins with Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance as I have put it in my Best Picture top ten where it had yet to be listed. I still have reservations about including it. This is not the type of genre material that Academy voters usually go for. However, it has its vocal admirers and is one of the most buzzed about pictures of 2024.
The love for The Substance doesn’t stop there. Fourteen days ago, I had it pegged for only a single nomination in Makeup and Hairstyling. Now I have it nabbing five other mentions: Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, and Film Editing.
My BP inclusion for The Substance knocks out Steve McQueen’s Blitz. In fact, Blitz has fallen the most in my estimation in recent days. Two weeks ago, I had it achieving five nods. Now I have it only managing a Best Sound mention.
In Director, Fargeat’s rise puts Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) on the outside looking in. There are two newbies in Best Actress: the aforementioned Demi Moore and Cynthia Erivo from the massively successful Wicked. Their additions subtract Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) and Amy Adams (Nightbitch).
Speaking of Wicked, Ariana Grande is now in my Supporting Actress quintet and that takes out… Saoirse Ronan for Blitz. That means that I went from projecting Ronan as a double nominee to none.
There are no changes in my Actor and Supporting Actor lineups. I will note that the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown has started industry screenings while the review embargo hasn’t lifted. The early buzz indicates that Timothée Chalamet is looking solid for a nom while its chances elsewhere are shakier.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update available in mid-December!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Substance (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Blitz (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Complete Unknown (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Robert Eggers, Nosferatu
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Kinglsey Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Gladiator II
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)
8. September 5 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hit Man (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (E)
10. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Complete Unknown
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kneecap (PR: 6) (E)
7. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dahomey (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Armand (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Grand Tour
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)
7. Transformers One (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Chicken for Linda! (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Savages
Spellbound
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Union (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daughters (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A New Kind of Wilderness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Separated
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Anora (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Blitz (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maria (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Conclave (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emila Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Substance (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. A Different Man (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 6) (E)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Conclave (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 7) (+4)
4. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper & Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Beyond” from Moana 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maria (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Blitz (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Conclave (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Twisters (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Better Man (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
8 Nominations
Conclave, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Wicked
6 Nominations
Sing Sing, The Substance
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
Maria, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
1 Nomination
Black Box Diaries, Blitz, A Complete Unknown, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Union, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
Comedy fans are currently enjoying Mr. Martin Short solving crimes alongside Steve Martin in Only Murders in the Building, but 40 years ago he was killing it at 30 Rockefeller Plaza. As I discussed in my post featuring Billy Crystal, the 1984-85 was marked by established performers like Crystal and Christopher Guest joining SNL for one special season. No one stood taller that year than Short.
The Canadian performer who would also turn into one of the greatest talk show guests of all time already had sketch experience. From 1982-83, Short excelled on his native country’s SCTV. On SNL, he would bring several of his creations to New York City including the manic spiky haired Ed Grimley and constantly nerve wracked defense attorney Nathan Thurm. There’s also Vegas singer Jackie Rogers Jr. Short’s on point impressions included Jerry Lewis and Katherine Hepburn.
His finest moments on SNL might have been the taped bit “Synchronized Swimming” which is criminally unavailable on YouTube. Short may have only shined on SNL for one year, but I must say his contribution was significant enough to place him high on this list. I’ll throw in some terrific clips on when he returned to host as well and #15 will be up soon!
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 