Blogger’s Update (12/24): On the eve of its Christmas premiere, I’m bumping my A Complete Unknown from $13.1 million to $16.3 million from Friday to Sunday and from $24.4 million to $31.1 million from Wednesday to Sunday
The 2024 movie season concludes with Christmas falling on a Wednesday and four wide releases populating the marketplace that day. They are gothic horror remake Nosferatu from Robert Eggers, Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown with Timothée Chalamet, steamy thriller Babygirl starring Nicole Kidman, and the true-life boxing tale The Fire Inside. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:
The box office can get awfully unpredictable over the holidays and that might hold true this year. Many questions abound. There is a decent chance that the top four, despite the same number of newbies, remains the same. Sonic the Hedgehog 3, after ruling the charts surprisingly easily over Mufasa: The Lion King, may cling to 1st even though it should have the largest decline of holdovers. I’m projecting it falls over in the mid to high 40s with Mufasa only easing in the high 20s in their second weekends.
Other returnees, as can be the case over the Yuletide frame, may experience increases from the previous frame. If so, Wicked (which I have rising in the mid 30s) and Moana 2 (low 30s) may maintain the 3-4 positions.
I have Nosferatu and A Complete Unknown both in the low teens for Friday to Sunday and mid 20s when counting Wednesday and Thursday. Either of them could exceed my expectations and enter the top 4.
As for Babygirl and The Fire Inside, I have them in the bottom of top 10 with Gladiator II in seventh and Homestead in 8th.
Here’s how I have it all shaking out:
1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $32.1 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $26 million
3. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $18.8 million
4. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $16.9 million
5. A Complete Unknown
Predicted Gross: $16.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $31.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
6. Nosferatu
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $26.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
7. Gladiator II
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
8. Homestead
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
9. Babygirl
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $6.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
10. The Fire Inside
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (December 20-22)
Paramount/Sega, as mentioned, held the top spot with plenty of room to spare as Sonic the Hedgehog 3 made off with $60.1 million. That’s well under my generous $77.6 million estimate and falls well shorty of the $72 million achieved by part 2 in 2022. It’s still a respectable number considering that it should perform decently in the weeks ahead.
Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King didn’t exactly roar in second with $35.4 million compared to my $51.3 million prediction. Considering the reported $200 million price tag, this is a letdown. However, families could be biding their time to make their trek to multiplex to view it.
Wicked was third with $14.1 million, a tad ahead of my $12.7 million take. The Broadway adaptation stands at $384 million after five weeks.
After three weeks in 1st, Moana 2 was fourth with $13.2 million (I said $12.5 million) to bring its tally to $359 million.
Angel Studios got their post-apocalyptic pic Homestead to the five spot with $6 million and I failed to do a projection for it.
Gladiator II was sixth with $4.5 million (I was right there at $4.6 million) for five-week earnings of $154 million.
Finally, Kraven the Hunter from the Spider-Man Universe tumbled 72% to $3 million in its sophomore frame compared to my $4.8 million projection. The stalled superhero tale has made a piddly $17 million thus far.
And that does it for now, folks! Have a wonderful holiday and until next time…
My latest Oscar forecast follows the reveals for shortlists earlier this week where we now know the 15 finalists in International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, and Original Song. We were also given the 20 hopefuls in Original Score and ten pictures standing in Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. I covered my reaction to the shortlists here:
Best Sound is the category most altered by the announcement of ten finalists. The Brutalist, which clings to my #1 ranking in Best Picture, falls out of Sound altogether while A Complete Unknown rises two spots to third position. That’s not the only significant development for the Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet. Three days before its opening, I have Unknown in my BP ten for the first time and that’s at the expense of A Real Pain. That’s not all. Edward Norton’s performance as Pete Seeger in the movie enters the Supporting Actor quintet with Yura Borisov (Anora) now on the outside looking in.
In Best Actress, that pesky fifth slot goes back to Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) over Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths.
You can read all the movement below as I now have Emilia Pérez leading all nominees with 11 to The Brutalist‘s 10. I’ll have another update up post Christmas and pre-New Year’s!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Substance (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sing Sing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (-1)
12. September 5 (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)
14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: PartTwo (PR: 6) (E)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR; 6) (E)
7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. September 5 (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)
8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Kneecap (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Flow (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Universal Language (PR: 9) (E)
10. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Daughters (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Dahomey (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)
7. Union (PR: 7) (E)
8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (E)
9. Porcelain War (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maria (PR: 8) (+4)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Wicked
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maria (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blitz (PR: 10) (+3)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (E)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)
5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Challengers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Substance (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Wicked (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. A Different Man (PR: 4 (E)
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emila Pérez (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Waltzing with Brando (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sasquatch Sunset
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (E)
5. Challengers (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Forbidden Road” from Better Man
“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl
“Better Way to Live” from Kneecap
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Substance
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Brutalist
Nosferatu
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
The Substance
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Better Man (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Substance
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
And that works out to the following numbers of nominations for these films:
11 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
8 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Wicked
7 Nominations
Conclave
5 Nominations
Anora, Sing Sing, The Substance
4 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II
3 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
1 Nomination
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
There have been hundreds upon hundreds of cast members and hosts who have made us laugh on SNL during its nearly 50 years of existence. John Belushi was the first. He appeared in “The Wolverines” sketch that cold opened the first episode ever on October 11, 1975. Feigning a heart attack to the “real” medical episode of his scene partner (writer Michael O’Donoghue), it was Belushi who stood out even though Chevy Chase got to say “Live from New York…”
A Second City and National Lampoon alum, his manic energy stood out among the original Not Ready for Prime Time Players. This extended to bits at the Weekend Update Desk, impersonating Beethoven and Brando and William Shatner as James T. Kirk, and Joe Cocker, and bringing his musical and dancing chops alongside Dan Aykroyd as The Blues Brothers. There’s his Samurai character or a (personal favorite) taped sketch where he extols the virtues of little chocolate donuts.
Chevy Chase left for silver screen stardom after one season, but it was Belushi who first broke through in theaters with National Lampoon’s Animal House in 1978. That was a year before he departed SNL. When he left, it was hard to imagine the show continuing without him. Of course it managed to though Belushi cast a wide and wild shadow with his contributions. #5 will be up soon!
Following its Venice Film Festival premiere to mostly strong reviews early in the fall, Babygirl is delivered to theaters on Christmas Day. The steamy thriller casts Nicole Kidman and Harris Dickinson in a Fatal Attraction scenario. Halina Reijn directs with a supporting cast including Sophie Wilde and Antonio Banderas.
The A24 release has generated some Oscar buzz for Ms. Kidman. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 85% with 80 on Metacritic. Babygirl hopes to bring in a female crowd over the holidays but its appeal could be limited. Look for a mid single digits output from Friday to Sunday and throw in $2-3 million more when factoring in the 25th and 26th.
Babygirl opening weekend prediction: $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $6.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Blogger’s Update (12/24): On the eve of its Christmas premiere, I’m bumping my A Complete Unknown from $13.1 million to $16.3 million from Friday to Sunday and from $24.4 million to $31.1 million from Wednesday to Sunday
Searchlight Pictures hope audiences seek A Complete Unknown when it debuts on Christmas Day. James Mangold, no stranger to the musical biopic genre with 2005’s Johnny and June Cash centered Walk the Line, directs. Timothée Chalamet is the legendary Bob Dylan with a supporting cast including Edward Norton, Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro, Boyd Holbrook (as Johnny Cash), and Scoot McNairy.
Chalamet, coming off the one-two punch of Wonka and Dune: Part Two, has been visible promoting this and even went on College GameDay to hawk the holiday release. Reviews are sturdy enough with 78% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 72 Metacritic. Its lead, who does his own singing, is generating Best Actor buzz and he is a threat to win (it could nab a Best Picture slot too).
Unknown could succeed in bringing in an older audience interested in the subject matter and some youngsters interested in Chalamet. With Christmas falling on Wednesday, I think this reaches low double digits or low teens from Friday to Sunday and mid 20s for the five-day.
A Complete Unknown opening weekend prediction: $16.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $31.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Every year in December, we get a clearer picture of several races at the forthcoming Oscars when shortlists are unveiled. For feature-length categories, this applies to International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score, Original Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. In Score, we are given a list of 20 finalists in contention. For Song it’s 15. Same goes for the foreign and doc derbies. For the other 3 down-the-line competitions, we are given the standing 10 hopefuls. When nominations are eventually announced, all of these races will be whittled down to the final five.
Let’s walk through all seven of the shortlisted categories with some commentary, shall we?
Best International Feature Film
Shortlisted Movies: Armand, Dahomey, Emilia Pérez, Flow, From Ground Zero, The Girl with the Needle, How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, Santosh, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Touch, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Waves
There weren’t any major surprises as my top 10 IFF contenders from my previous update all made the cut. The additional five are Armand (which has been in my 10 before), From Ground Zero, Santosh, Touch, and Waves. Mexico’s Sujo and Japan’s Cloud are somewhat notable omissions.
Best Documentary Feature
Shortlisted Movies: The Bibi Files, Black Box Diaries, Dahomey, Daughters, Eno, Frida, Hollywoodgate, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Queendom, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Union, Will & Harper
Nine of my previous ten docs are in with the other six being The Bibi Files, Eno, Frida, Hollywoodgate, Porcelain War, and Queendom. The only missing entry was my #9 from last weekend – Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story. It’s not out of character for the doc branch to leave off some of higher profile titles.
Best Original Score
Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Babygirl, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Blink Twice, Blitz, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Fire Inside, Gladiator II, Horizon: American Saga – Chapter 1, Inside Out 2, Nosferatu, The Room Next Door, Sing Sing, The Six Triple Eight, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Young Woman and the Sea
Like in IFF, all ten of my contenders remain intact with another 10 in the mix. So while there’s no huge shockers, Queer and Saturday Night were expected to show up here.
Best Original Song
Shortlisted Songs: “Beyond” from Moana 2, “Compress/Repress” from Challengers, “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez, “Forbidden Road” from Better Man, “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper, “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight, “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing, “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez, “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late, “Out of Oklahoma” from Twisters, “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece, “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap, “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King, “Winter Coat” from Blitz
The songs that got in for Twisters, Kneecap, and Mufasa were not the tunes I would’ve predicted for that trio. In my top ten from last weekend, I had “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap. In a notable snub, Miley Cyrus’s “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl (a Globe nominee) is out.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Shortlisted Movies: The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu, The Substance, Walking with Brando, Wicked
In one of the larger twists, the little-seen Waltzing with Brando dances into this category. My number 8 Sasquatch Sunset and 9 Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga don’t get in. Furiosa had a bad day as it was blanked from this, Score, and the next two categories.
Best Sound
Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Wicked, The Wild Robot
Here’s where I had the most misses and this is the only place where a predicted nominee fails to show. That would be my #4 The Brutalist. There’s also Nosferatu (8th), Furiosa (9th), and The Substance (10th) not in contention. Alien had a good day by the way while The Substance only made it in Makeup (which it could win).
Best Visual Effects
Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Civil War, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Mufasa: The Lion King, Twisters, Wicked
I would’ve thought Civil War had a stronger chance in Sound, but it’s here along with Alien instead of my #7 The Substance and #10 Furiosa.
Bottom line: there’s no jaw dropping snubs in my view like there have been in some past years. Yet now we can probably safely assume Furiosa has no road to any Oscar nominations unless the Production Design branch bails it out (unlikely).
30 years ago, Disney’s animated The Lion King landed four Oscar nominations with three of its tracks nominated in Original Song. “Can You Feel the Love Tonight” (performed by Elton John) was the victorious track over “Circle of Life” and “Hakuna Matata”. Tim Rice also took home the gold for his score. 25 years later, the photorealistic remake directed by Jon Favreau was up for Visual Effects but fell short to 1917.
And now – Mufasa: The Lion King, which serves as a prequel and sequel to the remake, hits multiplexes Friday. Barry Jenkins, maker of 2016’s Best Picture Moonlight, made the surprising choice to direct it. Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Beyoncé and her daughter Blue Ivy, Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Tiffany Boone, Mads Mikkelsen, Thandiwe Newton, Lennie James, and Anika Noni Rose are among the cast.
Will this contend for anything? We do know it has two chances. The Oscar shortlists were unveiled this afternoon (a post regarding that will be up shortly) and Mufasa made the ten possibilities for Visual Effects and “Tell Me It’s You” is among 15 tunes eligible.
Those are likely the only two races where this stands a chance. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 59% with Metacritic at 58. I think it has a better shot in VE than Original Song, but wouldn’t be surprised to see it miss both come nomination morning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Paramount and Disney respectively look to dominate the pre-Yuletide box office chart as Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Mufasa: The Lion King invade theaters this weekend. The duo should easily lead a family friendly lineup as we enter the bustling holiday season. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
As explained in said posts, Sonic may have the advantage of having a more front loaded start than its Mouse House competitor. My mid to high 70s forecast has the Sega threequel slightly outperforming its 2022 predecessor.
Mufasa is highly unlikely to match the near $200 million opening haul that 2019’s live-action The Lion King roared with. While I have it achieving low to mid 50s out of the gate, this sequel/prequel appears set up to play well throughout the season.
After three weeks atop the charts, Moana 2 will relinquish the crown. It may even fall to fourth as I have it dipping in the 50% range and Wicked sliding in the mid 40s.
I’ll give the five spot to Kraven the Hunter after a DOA arrival (more on that below), but it could be Gladiator II. I have Kraven plummeting in the upper 50s with Gladiator easing in the low 40s.
And with that, here’s my take on the top 6:
1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $77.6 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $51.3 million
3. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
4. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
5. Kraven the Hunter
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
6. Gladiator II
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
Box Office Results (December 13-15)
November leftovers Moana 2 and Wicked continued to entertain kids and their parents. The former was 1st with $26.4 million, in line with my $27.5 million prediction. Disney’s sequel has amassed $337 million since its Thanksgiving bow.
Wicked took the runner-up spot at $22.6 million, in range with my $21.7 million call. The Broadway adaptation stands at $359 million after four weeks.
Another poorly reviewed Spider-Man Universe offering bombed with audiences as Kraven the Hunter was blanked in third with $11 million. I was more generous at $14.8 million. This comes months after Madame Web struggled to find its comic book fans. With a tepid C Cinemascore grade, crowds agreed with critics on its quality.
Gladiator II was fourth with $7.6 million. My estimate? $7.6 million! After four weeks, the tally stands at $145 million.
Finally, anime The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim did not pass muster with moviegoers in fifth with a paltry $4.5 million. I gave it more credit at $8 million.
There was no way to properly forecast the force of nature that was Chris Farley when he joined the SNL cast in 1990. Influenced by his idol and original Not Ready for Prime Time Player John Belushi (and suffering from some of the same demons), Farley burst onto Studio 8H stage with now legendary sketches.
Any aficionado of the show knows the greatest hits. Spawned from his time at Second City, motivational speaker Matt Foley caused costar David Spade (his future Tommy Boy and Black Sheep screen partner) and host Christina Applegate to lose it while he recounted living in a van down by the river. His Chippendales audition alongside Patrick Swayze is an all-timer.
Even Farley’s limited appearances in bits stole the show. His one line in a suggestive sketch where Dana Carvey and Adam Sandler put pepper on the dishes of restaurant goers (why THANK YOU PEPPER BOY!!!) is the most memorable part. There’s The Chris Farley Show where he nervously interviewed celebrities like Paul McCartney or Jeff Daniels and the lunch lady musical number with Sandler. Gap Girls. Bennett Brauer who appeared on Update to lament about his life via “air quotes”. Chris Farley’s physicality, outrageousness, and vulnerability caused him to be an SNL MVP in equal measure. #7 will be up soon!
A boatload of Oscar precursor nominations have rolled in since I last forecasted my predictions on December 1st from the Golden Globes to Critics Choice to AFI and the National Board of Review. As is usually the case, it causes certain performers and pictures to be much more assured in their position of getting in the Academy mix. Yet it can also muddy up the waters for others. A Real Pain missing Critics Choice was a surprising snub. Sing Sing performed poorly at the Globes. Blitz and Gladiator II are all but out of the Best Picture equation. I could go on and on but let’s focus on what’s changed in my projections for the major races since the dawn of December.
While my BP lineup remains the same, I came darn close to putting A Complete Unknown in over either Sing Sing or A Real Pain. It has a strong shot after getting Globe and Critics Choice nods in the big dance. I also flirted with putting Conclave at #1, but have The Brutalist still in first in a wider open field than normal in mid-December. The most significant climber is The Substance from 10th to 7th.
For the first time this year after multiple posts beginning in the spring, Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) is not listed in my director five. Jacques Audiard jumps back in for Emilia Pérez. I feel pretty good about my top 7 making the cut in the race. Obviously that’s problematic since only five can.
Despite no recognition from the Globes, Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) vaults into my Actress quintet though I was reluctant to drop Cynthia Erivo (Wicked).
While my Best Actor five is intact, Timothée Chalamet’s performance as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown rises from 4th to 2nd. He has emerged as a genuine challenger for the gold (along with Ralph Fiennes in Conclave) to Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. Another development: after unexpectedly landing Globe and CCA noms, Hugh Grant (Heretic) is in Other Possibilities for the first time.
While my Supporting Actress field remains the same, I’m putting Yura Borisov (Anora) in Supporting Actor to the detriment of Conclave‘s Stanley Tucci, who missed CCA and the Globes.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Substance (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A Real Pain (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 15) (+4)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-1)
13. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilie Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (E)
5. Isabella Rosselini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joan Chen, Dídi
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. September 5 (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)
8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Challengers (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
His Three Daughters
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Piano Lesson
Queer
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kneecap (PR: 6) (E)
7. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Dahomey (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Universal Language (PR: 8) (-1)
10. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Armand
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flow (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilites:
6. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Transformers One (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Spellbound (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daughters (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Union (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A New Kind of Wilderness
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Challengers (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Anora
Blitz
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sing Sing
Saturday Night
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Different Man (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 6) (E)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (E)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Challengers (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two – deemed ineligible
Saturday Night
Blitz
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilties:
6. “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-4)
10. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Blitz (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Twisters
Conclave
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)
4. Better Man (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Twisters (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Conclave, Wicked
6 Nominations
Anora, The Substance
4 Nominations
Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
Better Man, A Complete Unknown, The Girl with the Needle, Maria, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
1 Nomination
Challengers, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
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