As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered Anora, The Brutalist, and A Complete Unknown for BP and if you missed those, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our fourth hopeful is Conclave.
The Case for Conclave:
Edward Berger’s pulpy papal drama has been considered a top awards player since it debuted at Telluride in September. With 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, reviews are solid enough and it performed decently at the box office (over $30 million) for its genre. It is up for 8 statues including Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. Conclave has scored BP nods everywhere it needs to. It leads the BAFTAs with 12 nominations, is up at Critics Choice and PGA and for Best Ensemble at SAG, and contended at the Golden Globes in Best Drama where it won Best Screenplay. Berger’s behind the camera work also landed a DGA mention.
The Case Against Conclave:
Berger surprisingly missed the cut with the Academy in Best Director. Only three films in the 21st century (Argo, Green Book, CODA) have won BP without its maker being nominated. Berger can’t catch a break with the Academy as his 2022 war epic All Quiet on the Western Front received nine mentions but excluded his direction. The 79 Metacritic score is less than some competitors. It is possible that the only race where its the frontrunner is Adapted Screenplay and possibly Editing. Don’t expect either of its acting nominees to make podium walks. The Brutalist emerged victorious at the Globes in Best Drama.
The Verdict:
The snub of Berger looms large. I’d likely be more optimistic if he hadn’t been left out. Conclave has a slight chance in BP, but I wouldn’t put much faith in it.
My Case Of posts will continue with Dune: Part Two…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered Anora and The Brutalist for BP and if you missed those, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our third hopeful is A Complete Unknown.
The Case for A Complete Unknown:
If you want to bet on the picture with some late breaking momentum, the Bob Dylan biopic from James Mangold might be your horse. Released in December, Unknown is doing healthy business at the box office and scored 8 total noms that include Director, Actor (Timothée Chalamet), Supporting Actress (Monica Barbaro), Supporting Actor (Edward Norton), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Sound. The journey to the better than expected nomination count began with over performances at the precursors. It really hasn’t missed anywhere with a Best Ensemble mention at SAG and BP noms at the Golden Globes, PGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and a DGA slot for Mangold.
The Case Against A Complete Unknown:
It didn’t win the Golden Globe in Drama (that went to The Brutalist). The 80% RT score and 71 Metacritic are below most of its competitors. There’s even a chance that it goes 0 for 8 on Oscar night. I wouldn’t say it is the favorite in any category.
The Verdict:
I don’t think it’s impossible for this to take the top prize, but I would need to see some victories at upcoming precursors such as Critics Choice or SAG.
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered Anora and if you missed that, it is linked at the bottom of the post. Our second contestant is Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist.
The Case for The Brutalist:
With the exception of SAG (where it wasn’t really expected to be a strong contender for Best Ensemble), the 215 minute epic immigration period piece has landed everywhere else. This includes BAFTA, PGA, Critics Choice, and DGA. The Golden Globe performance was particularly notable as it flexed its muscle with a Best Drama victory over competitors including A Complete Unknown and Conclave. Corbet took Director and Adrien Brody won Actor. The ten nominations are tied for 2nd best with Wicked. In addition to Pic, Corbet, and Brody, there are noms in Supporting Actress and Actor (Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. The timely subject matter doesn’t hurt. Critical appreciation is present with 93% on RT and a 90 Metacritic.
The Case Against The Brutalist:
Due to its runtime and subject matter, The Brutalist will not be as widely seen as some other options. Voters may want to go for something more popular and known. There’s been some subpar showings like at SAG where Pearce and Jones missed.
The Verdict:
I’ve had The Brutalist ranked in my top spot for months. It could take Director + Actor + some down the line competitions. That’s a solid mix for BP victory. However, this is a soft top ranking as half the field has BP winning potential.
My Case Of posts will continue with A Complete Unknown…
Bill Condon has directed Ian McKellen to an Oscar nod for 1998’s Gods and Monsters and Eddie Murphy to a nom and Jennifer Hudson to a victory for 2006’s Dreamgirls. The headlining trio for Kiss of the Spider Woman is hoping for the same.
This is the second cinematic version of the musical stage play and it has premiered at Sundance before a TBD release date later this year. The Argentinian set drama features Jennifer Lopez, Diego Luna, and Tonatiuh in the primary roles.
Early reaction is uneven with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes and 55 on Metacritic. That’s different than some of the initial gushing social media reaction out of Park City. It begs the question of whether reviews are too mixed for it to be a Best Picture play and that is also TBD.
The cast, on the other hand, might stand stronger chances. This especially applies to Lopez and relative newcomer Tonatiuh (recently seen in Carry-On). One of the biggest surprises at the 92nd Academy Awards was J-Lo missing Supporting Actress for 2019’s Hustlers. Voters may look to rectify that snub here. As for Tonatiuh, the performer is inhabiting the same role that won William Hurt a Best Actor statue for Hector Babenco’s 1985’s first iteration. It will be interesting to see how category placement is determined by its eventual distributor as both could theoretically go lead or supporting.
Down-the-line competitions like Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design, and Sound could be on the table with a dedicated campaign. That’s something this is likely to receive. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
I will begin with the ten BP contenders and then alternate alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Sean Baker’s Anora kicks it off!
The Case for Anora:
The dramedy from auteur Sean Baker has turned out to be his awards breakout. Nominations wise it has landed everywhere it needed to in the precursors. This includes the Golden Globes with 5 nods as well as DGA, SAG, PGA, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. With a 93% Rotten Tomatoes meter and 91 on Metacritic, it sports five other Academy mentions and Mikey Madison is a threat to win Best Actress. It is likely the frontrunner for Original Screenplay. The other three noms are for Baker’s direction, Yura Borisov in Supporting Actor, and Film Editing.
The Case Against Anora:
Anora surprisingly went 0 for 5 at the Oscars. In Best Musical or Comedy, it fell short to Emilia Pérez with Demi Moore (The Substance) emerging over Madison in Actress while Conclave took Screenplay. From a genre and content standpoint, it’s not your “typical” BP recipient.
The Verdict:
There is no doubt that a narrative exists where Anora could take the top prize. That especially holds true if it gets the combo of Actress + Original Screenplay. Yet I’ve never had Anora ranked 1st in my BP forecast while others have and I’m skeptical that’ll change.
My Case Of posts will continue with The Brutalist…
Questlove, from the hip hop group The Roots and bandleader on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon, took Sundance by storm four years ago with Summer of Soul. That documentary focused on 1969’s Harlem Cultural Festival won the Audience Award and Grand Jury Prize for its genre at the Utah event. Over a year later, it would emerge as Best Documentary Feature at the 94th Academy Awards.
The filmmaker’s follow-up is Sly Lives! (aka The Burden of Black Genius) and it too has kicked off in Park City. Centered on the life and career of the enigmatic Sly Stone of Sly and the Family Stone, it’s slated for a Hulu streaming bow in February.
Word-of-mouth is encouraging though some critics are not as effusive as they were with Soul. Academy voters may take that into consideration when evaluating whether to take Sly higher into the awards convo next year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Rose Byrne has been highly visible on the big screen in horror flicks like the Insidious franchise, superhero adventures such as X-Men: First Class, and multiple comedies including Bridesmaids, Spy, and Instant Family. The Australian actress received Emmy nods for her supporting role in the acclaimed Damages in 2009 and 2010.
She has yet to have a cinematic vehicle that’s driven significant awards talk. That may change this year with If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Focused on the not so great aspects of motherhood (there are comparisons to Nightbitch), Byrne is being lauded in Mary Bronstein’s second directorial feature. The eclectic supporting cast includes Conan O’Brien (who’ll be hosting the Oscars in a few weeks), Danielle Macdonald, Delaney Quinn, A$AP Rocky, and Christian Slater.
Premiering at Sundance, critics are already proclaiming Byrne’s performance as a 2025 highlight. I would expect distributor A24 to mount a serious campaign for Best Actress. The frenetic energy of the pic is being likened to Uncut Gems. It’s worth noting that 2019 A24 title did not end up getting Adam Sandler his first Academy nod despite a major push.
Obviously we’ll need to see how competition is as the months roll along, but I could envision Byrne being in the conversation. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Diane Warren: Relentless is playing the festival circuit chronicling the prolific songwriter’s life. Directed by Bess Kargman, the documentary’s subject is no stranger to Oscar attention.
In 1987, Warren received her first Academy nod for Original Song with “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” from Mannequin (performed by Starship). Yesterday she nabbed her 16th (!) nomination with “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (performed by H.E.R.). In between there’s been well-known tunes like Celine Dion’s “Because You Loved Me” from Up Close & Personal and Aerosmith’s “I Don’t Wanna Miss a Thing” from Armageddon. In recent years, her tracks were nominated from pictures in 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. What do they all have in common? None of them took home the gold. The Academy did give Warren an honorary Oscar in 2022.
It would be quite a story if a doc about her life ended up earning Oscar glory. Apparently her well-known status as an Academy loser is covered. Don’t count on it happening. At 83% on Rotten Tomatoes, reviews are fine but not strong enough to be a contender. Yet there’s a caveat. “Dear Me” (sung by Kesha) is the main song in the pic and the full version was released today. You can hear snippets in the trailer. I wouldn’t be surprised based on history if it makes the cut in Original Song marking Warren’s 17th try. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Three years ago at the Sundance Film Festival, Sophie Hyde premiered her dramedy Good Luck to You, Leo Grande where Emma Thompson earned an Actress (Musical or Comedy) nom. It also rounded up a few BAFTA mentions. In 2025, the writer/director is back in Park City with Jimpa. Olivia Colman stars as a mom taking her non-binary teen to visit their gay grandpa (or Jimpa) in Amsterdam. John Lithgow is the title character with newcomer Aud Mason-Hyde as the teen. Costars include Tilda Cobham-Hervey, Daniel Henshall, Kate Box, Eamon Farren, and Zoë Love Smith.
Colman had a four year Oscar run where she achieved 3 nominations: 2018’s The Favourite (where she won), 2020’s The Father in supporting, and 2021’s The Lost Daughter in lead. Lithgow nabbed back-to-back mentions in Supporting Actor over four decades ago with 1982’s The World According to Garp and 1983’s Terms of Endearment (winning neither). Both of these roles seem like Academy bait.
However, initial reaction is mixed with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes. Perhaps its eventual distributor will mount a campaign. Lithgow, in what’s said to be quite a revealing role, seems due for one. His turn in Conclave last year turned out not to be that part as costars Ralph Fiennes and Isabella Rossellini were the focal points. I’m just not convinced this’ll be a major awards player at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott announced nominees for the 97th Academy Awards this morning after being delayed from last week due to the California wildfires. For the ceremony airing March 2nd (hosted by Conan O’Brien), I went 89 for 105 in my picks. I’ll allow myself a pat on the back as I managed to go 20/20 in the four acting derbies and 10/10 in the screenplay races.
As predicted, Emilia Pérez led all hopefuls and it managed to nab 13 nominations (I projected it would get 11). The Brutalist and Wicked followed with 10 apiece while A Complete Unknown and Conclave generated 8.
Let’s walk through each competition with how I did and some initial thoughts, shall we?
BEST PICTURE
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 9/10
The surprise of the morning was Brazilian drama I’m Still Here making the cut. I had A Real Pain instead. As has been discussed frequently on the blog, this is an uncharacteristically open BP field with several winner possibilities. Readers know that I’ve had The Brutalist listed in 1st and I see no reason to change that, but Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave (to a lesser degree… we’ll get to that), Pérez, and maybe Wicked loom.
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
How I Did: 4/5
DGA nominee Mangold is in the quintet over Edward Berger (Conclave). The latter has his second significant snub just two years after being left off for All Quiet on the Western Front. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t emerge as the BP victor, Corbet is the frontrunner. I think Conclave‘s BP chances took a hit with Berger missing.
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
How I Did: 5/5
The narrative for Moore might be too enticing for the Academy to ignore, but I’m beginning to wonder if Torres is a bigger threat than even Madison to upset. I’ll note that all nominees are from BP contenders.
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalmaet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/5
The showdown should come down to Brody v. Chalamet.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 5/5
Like Actress, all nominees hail from BP hopefuls with Grande v. Saldaña anticipated to be the storyline.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/5
Culkin is out front, but it’s worth noting that A Real Pain missed BP. Does this open the door for Norton or Pearce?
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
How I Did: 5/5
This is where Anora is expected to shine.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
How I Did: 5/5
This is where Conclave is expected to shine.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
How I Did: 3/5
After those acting and screenplay runs, my predictions come back down to Earth. My alternate Flow and Needle are in over Kneecap and Vermiglio. Despite I’m Still Here being an unanticipated addition to BP, Pérez should receive this.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 5/5
This was probably the race that all prognosticators nailed as this was an easy quintet to project. Flow vs. The Wild Robot.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane
How I Did: 3/5
Black Box Diaries and my alternate Soundtrack are in with Daughters (a surprising snub) and Will & Harper out. The Doc branch can hard to figure out though No Other Land is racking up early precursor awards.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu
How I Did: 3/5
My alternate Pérez and Maria (in its sole nom) are in over A Complete Unknown and Conclave. This is probably going to The Brutalist.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
Conclave (which was my runner-up) makes it in over Dune: Part Two. It should be noted that Dune‘s 5 nominations is certainly on the lower end of its expected range. Wicked is the frontrunner.
BEST FILM EDITING
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
How I Did: 3/5
I went with an upset by leaving off my alternate Anora, but it’s in and so is Wicked over A Complete Unknown and Dune. This is a tricky race to figure out and, frankly, I’m not ready to designate a favorite quite yet.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 5/5
This is where The Substance could materialize.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/5
It’s Wicked and Wild (my alt) over Challengers (which was blanked this morning) and Nosferatu. This could be a Brutalist prize.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
How I Did: 3/5
“Like a Bird” and Sir Elton’s ditty are part of the mix over “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper and “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, which was expected to make it. The Pérez tracks are out front with “El Mal” as your Globe victor.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 5/5
This could be a Wicked win.
BEST SOUND
A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/5
My alt Pérez and The Wild Robot (in a category where few were predicting it) instead of Blitz and Gladiator II (which had a poor morning with only Costume Design). While Dune could take this, I question whether the subpar five noms makes it vulnerable to others.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
My alt Wicked and not Twisters represented here. The same logic from Sound applies to VE with Dune. Could Alien or Better Man pose a threat?
And there you have it, folks! It’s now time to start my Case Of posts. Readers of the blog may recall that I do individual posts for the 10 BP nominees and the 25 director and acting hopefuls where I lay out the case for and against their winning. Those will be up in short order.
Here’s how the nominations tallies played out:
13 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist, Wicked
8 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Conclave
6 Nominations
Anora
5 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, The Substance
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
I’m Still Here, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Flow, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus. Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Different Man, Elton John: Never Too Late, The Girl with the Needle, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
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