76th BAFTA Film Awards Winner Predictions

The BAFTAs, Britain’s version of the Academy Awards, airs this Sunday (February 19) and it can often serve as a preview for where the Oscars will go. That holds true in same races more than others like the acting derbies.

In the past decade, 32 of the 40 winners in Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor became Oscar recipients. That’s 8 out of the past 10 Actresses, 9 for 10 in Actor, 7 for 10 in Supporting Actress, and 8 for 10 in Supporting Actor.

It’s a different story for the grand prize. A mere 3 of 10 Best Film winners at BAFTA are BP victors at the Oscars – Argo, 12 Years a Slave, and Nomadland. The percentage goes up considerably for Director at 7/10.

I’m going to keep it simple here. I’ll give you the nominees and my predicted winner and a runner-up. Let’s get to it!

Best Film

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár

Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Director

Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Predicted Winner: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Todd Field, Tár

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár

Runner-Up: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis

Runner-Up: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everywhere All at Once), Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)

Predicted Winner: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Albrecht Schuch (All Quiet on the Western Front), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)

Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, The Quiet Girl, She Said, The Whale

Predicted Winner: Living

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red

Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Best Film Not in the English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Corsage, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: The Quiet Girl

Best Documentary

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Moonage Daydream, Navalny

Predicted Winner: Fire of Love

Runner-Up: Navalny

Best Casting

Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Triangle of Sadness

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Elvis

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Empire of Light, Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: Elvis

Best Costume Design

All Quiet on the Western Front, Amsterdam, Babylon, Elvis, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Predicted Winner: Elvis

Runner-Up: Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Best Editing

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Make-Up & Hair

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Whale

Predicted Winner: The Whale

Runner-Up: Elvis

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Predicted Winner: Babylon

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Batman, Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: Babylon

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Special Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Outstanding British Film

Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Brian and Charles, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, See How They Run, The Swimmers, The Wonder

Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Aftersun

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Aftersun, Blue Jean, Electric Malady, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Rebellion

Predicted Winner: Aftersun

Runner-Up: Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

That equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of wins:

4 Wins

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2 Wins

Elvis

1 Win

Aftersun, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Fire of Love, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Tár, The Whale

I’ll have a recap up on Sunday!

Oscars: The Case of Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie

As a down on her luck lottery winner who blew through the cash, Andrea Riseborough’s much discussed Best Actress nomination for To Leslie is next up in my Case Of posts.

The Case for Andrea Riseborough:

Even a week before Oscar nods came out, Riseborough (known for roles in mainstream and indie fare including Oblivion, Battle of the Sexes, and Mandy) was on no one’s radar screen for this small budget drama. Then a grassroots campaign emerged with shout-outs from fellow competitor Cate Blanchett and others. Most didn’t think she’d manage to get in, but lo and behold it happened. So it that can happen… why not a victory?

The Case Against Andrea Riseborough:

Well, there’s plenty of reasons why there probably won’t be a win. She was mentioned in zero precursors. The unconventional campaign for her to make the quintet – fairly or unfairly – has been criticized. And Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) appear to be in a two-person race for the gold.

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

The biggest surprise of the 20 contestants in the four acting derbies, Riseborough’s inclusion could lead to changes in the Academy’s campaign rules or could revolutionize how small distributors mount their campaigns. It’s doubtful the end result of the nomination itself is a win.

My Case Of posts will continue with Brendan Fraser in The Whale!

For my write-ups on Riseborough’s fellow nominees, click here:

Oscars: The Case of Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin

Martin McDonagh’s direction of The Banshees of Inisherin is next up for the quintet in that category in my Case Of posts.

The Case for Martin McDonagh:

When a movie has a legit shot at winning Best Picture and the filmmaker is nominated, he’s got a chance. That’s the case here. For the tragicomedy, the acclaimed director/playwright has been nominated in the key precursors DGA, Golden Globes, BAFTA, and Critics Choice.

The Case Against Martin McDonagh:

At Critics Choice, the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once) won. At the Globes, it was Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans). McDonagh’s victory at the Globes came in screenplay and that could occur with the Academy (where he’s been nominated twice before for written works In Bruges and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri).

Previous Nominations:

None for direction

Six other nominations for Live-Action Short Film (Six Shooter, 2005, WON); Original Screenplay (In Bruges, 2008); Picture and Original Screenplay (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Picture and Original Screenplay (The Banshees of Inisherin)

The Verdict:

A sweeping Banshees night still could leave McDonagh out in director in favor of the Daniels or Spielberg. He could take screenplay instead under that scenario.

My Case Of posts will continue with Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie!

If you missed my other Director write-ups, they can accessed here:

Oscars: The Case of Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway

Brian Tyree Henry’s performance in Causeway as a mechanic struggling with his involvement in a family tragedy is next up in my Case Of posts for the Supporting Actor hopefuls.

The Case for Brian Tyree Henry:

After critically appreciated roles in Widows and If Beale Street Could Talk and being singled out in genre fare such as Godzilla vs. Kong and Bullet Train, he earned his strongest reviews yet for the Apple TV drama costarring Jennifer Lawrence. He’s also up for a Critics Choice nod.

The Case Against Brian Tyree Henry:

In addition to missing out on precursors such as SAG, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes, Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is the overwhelming favorite in the race. He represents the indie pic’s sole mention and he was a surprise addition on nomination morning.

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

Even if a major upset occurs in Supporting Actor, it’s highly doubtful Henry will be the cause of it.

My Case Of posts will continue with Martin McDonagh’s direction for The Banshees of Inisherin!

If you’ve missed the write-ups for the other Supporting Actors in the field, they can be found here:

Oscars: The Case of Ana de Armas in Blonde

Ana de Armas is Marilyn Monroe in Andrew Dominik’s Blonde and she’s the second Best Actress hopeful in my Case Of Posts.

The Case for Ana de Armas:

Despite the film itself garnering mixed reactions (more on that below), de Armas was widely praised. This resulted in nods at the Globes, SAG, and BAFTAs.

The Case Against Ana de Armas:

I’m talking really mixed reactions for the film. Blonde received the most Razzie nominations (8) of any 2022 title. Some critics and viewers outright despised the Netflix effort as evidenced by the 42% Rotten Tomatoes score and even lower 32% audience rating. She has yet to win anywhere.

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

The fact that so many had their knives out for Blonde makes her a non-factor in this competition (unless we see a shocking SAG or BAFTA victory). We should see the Academy’s ladies and gentlemen prefer Cate Blanchett (Tár) or Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once).

My Case Of posts will continue with Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin!

If you missed my other write-ups for the Actress nominees, you can find them here:

Oscars: The Case of Todd Field for Tár

Actor turned lauded filmmaker Todd Field is the second director on deck for My Case Of posts covering that competition at the 95th Academy Awards.

The Case for Todd Field:

Tár, Field’s third behind the camera feature, is perhaps the critics darling of awards season and voters may wish to honor it somewhere. It helps that there’s no slam dunk pick in this quintet for the victory. He has shown up in precursors including Critics Choice, DGA, and BAFTA. The Academy has nominated him multiple times as a producer and writer (though this is his first directing nod).

The Case Against Todd Field:

Critics Choice went for the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once) while the Globes didn’t nominate him at all. The best chance for a win probably lies with its lead Cate Blanchett. With Everything as a soft frontrunner for Picture and the possibility of Globe recipient Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) taking the prize, that puts the rest of the hopefuls at a competitive disadvantage.

Previous Nominations:

None in Director (he has been nominated as a producer and writer for In the Bedroom and Little Children). He also picked up an original screenplay mention for this.

The Verdict:

The uncertainty of this contest could pave the way for a surprise winner. However, Best Director is not usually a race where that occurs. Field would need to take BAFTA or DGA for me to think he has a legit shot.

My Case Of posts will continue with Ana de Armas in Blonde!

If you missed my other posts on the nominees for Director, you can access them here:

Oscars: The Case of Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin

My Case Of posts have reached the first contender in Supporting Actor and that’s Brendan Gleeson for The Banshees of Inisherin!

The Case for Brendan Gleeson:

Despite an acclaimed filmography with lead and supporting roles from Braveheart to The General to the Harry Potter franchise to In Bruges and The Tragedy of Macbeth, the veteran thespian nabbed his first Oscar nod here. Playing Colin Farrell’s fair-weather friend in Martin McDonagh’s tragicomedy, Gleeson landed nominations in all the key precursors thus far.

The Case Against Brendan Gleeson:

In addition to internal competition from his costar Barry Keoghan, anyone not named Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is at a disadvantage as he has won all the major ceremonies so far.

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

Gleeson might be runner-up to strong frontrunner Quan, but it’s doubtful his fingers will be gripping an Oscar on March 12th.

My Case Of posts will continue with Todd Field and his direction of Tár!

My write-ups for the other Supporting Actor contenders can be found here:

Oscars: The Case of Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

As the grieving mother of an iconic Marvel superhero, Angela Bassett is first up in my Case Of posts for the Supporting Actress quintet.

The Case for Angela Bassett:

Nearly thirty years after receiving a Best Actress nomination as Tina Turner in What’s Love Got to Do with It, Bassett becomes the first performer to land a mention for an MCU pic (in its 30th feature). Her work in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has already given her Golden Globe and Critics Choice statues. BAFTA and SAG could follow suit as she hasn’t missed any of the significant precursors. She’s also a highly respected thespian and voters may feel it’s time to honor her.

The Case Against Angela Bassett:

This would be the only performance from a comic book tale to win where the actor isn’t playing the Joker. In other words, despite the prevalence of the genre in the 21st century, this is a rare occurrence. While she’s run the table thus far, a SAG or BAFTA victory for another contestant (say Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin) would interrupt the sweep chatter.

Previous Nominations:

What’s Love Got to Do with It (Actress, 1993)

The Verdict:

In the supporting fields, I’m not not quite as confident in Bassett’s coronation as I am with Ke Huy Quan in Supporting Actor. That said, she is definitely in the best position for the crown.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first Supporting Actor write-up and that’s Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin!

For post covering the other Supporting Actress hopefuls, click here:

Oscars: The Case of Cate Blanchett in Tár

Cate Blanchett’s character in Todd Field’s Tár is an EGOT (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony) recipient. Can she nab a third O in her acclaimed filmography? She’s the first Best Actress hopeful up in my Case Of posts.

The Case for Cate Blanchett:

In 2004, Blanchett won Supporting Actress for The Aviator. Nine years later, it was a lead victory for Blue Jasmine. Nine years after that, Tár gave her plenty of career best notices. Rewards have been many from regional critics groups and the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globe in the Drama category.

The Case Against Cate Blanchett:

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once. She’s picked up a few regional mentions as well and was the Globes recipient among the Musical or Comedy quintet. If Everything is the big winner on Oscar night (and it certainly could be), Yeoh could be swept in.

Previous Nominations (*denotes WON):

Elizabeth (Actress, 1998); *The Aviator (Supporting Actress, 2004); Notes on a Scandal (Supporting Actress, 2006); Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Actress, 2007); I’m Not There (Supporting Actress, 2007); *Blue Jasmine (Actress, 2013); Carol (Actress, 2015)

The Verdict:

Yeoh is a serious competitor and this sure looks like a two-person race. I have Blanchett slightly out front, but not by much.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first Best Actor entry. That’s Austin Butler as Elvis!

Case of posts for the other Actress contenders can be accessed here:

Oscars: The Case of the Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Now that I’ve gotten through my Case Of posts for the 10 Best Picture nominees, it’s time to move to the directors and performers vying for statues in their respective categories. I will alternate alphabetically between the hopefuls in Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor over the next couple of weeks. That’s 25 posts coming your way in short order and it begins with Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (known as the Daniels) and their behind the camera work for Everything Everywhere All at Once.

The Case for the Daniels:

For starters, it helps to be the directors of the Best Picture frontrunner and Everything fits that description in my view. In just their second feature (following 2016’s Swiss Army Man), they broke through to the mainstream in a major way with the acclaimed multi-genre experience. The reward so far has been numerous Best Director honors from regional critics groups and at the Critics Choice Awards.

The Case Against the Daniels:

The duo started out making music videos. One of their best known is 2013’s “Turn Down for What” from DJ Snake and Lil Jon. Voters may turn them down for Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans). Even if Fabelmans doesn’t take BP, the Academy could opt to recognize its maker’s legendary career with a third prize. That’s what happened at the Golden Globes.

Previous Nominations:

None

The Verdict:

The Spielberg threat is real, but the Daniels could be benefactors of a big night in both Original Screenplay and this competition.

My Case Of posts will continue with Cate Blanchett in Tár!

For my posts covering the other directorial contenders, click here: