The Beekeeper Box Office Prediction

Amazon MGM is hoping for solid buzz when The Beekeeper debuts on January 12th. It comes from Fury and Suicide Squad maker David Ayer with Jason Statham headlining the revenge tale. Costars include Emmy Raver-Lampman, Josh Hutcherson, Bobby Naderi, Minnie Driver, Phylicia Rashad, and Jeremy Irons.

It may sound like a kiddie animated flick, but the action thriller hopes to get genre fans out over the long MLK frame. With its attention grabbing name, one comp could be Gerard Butler’s Plane from last year. That plainly titled pic made nearly $12 million over the Friday to Monday portion of MLK. Another comp (as far as generic action exercises go) is 2017’s Sleepless with Jamie Foxx. It came in with just under $10 million for the four-day.

I’ll say The Beekeeper makes off with a number barely over $10 million in line with the aforementioned features.

The Beekeeper opening weekend prediction: $10.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Mean Girls prediction, click here:

For my The Book of Clarence prediction, click here:

Dog Review

When the two leads of Dog – one of the human variety and another of the canine persuasion – find their rhythm with each other, so does the film. That takes too long (about half of the running time) as we road trip though cartoonish potential threesomes and Mr. Magoo inspired humor. The screenplay from co-director Reid Carolin can’t seem to get out of its own way for the initial stretch. Fortunately Channing Tatum is the other co-director and his chemistry with the title character hits a stride in the back sections.

Tatum’s character was dropped into the Cool Sounding Movie Name Generator and out spat Jackson Briggs. He’s an ex Army Ranger doing menial jobs stateside and pining for a return of duty. When his former brother in arms dies in a car accident, he gets an assignment but not one sought. Briggs is tasked with transporting the deceased’s military dog Lulu from Washington State to the funeral in Arizona. Both Jackson and Lulu are suffering from PTSD. This is scheduled to be the latter’s final assignment as the aggressive hound will be euthanized following the burial.

While nothing in Dog says anything particularly fresh about its subject matter, the rapport between the stars elevates the material. It’s certainly their show as the supporting actors are bit players. Jane Adams and Kevin Nash show up as farmers of the up in smoke variety in one of the would be farcical excursions. Three Belgian Malinois portray the role of  Lulu. Tatum was inspired by a real road trip that he took with his ailing pooch in creating the story. The dramatic stuff works better than the attempts at comedy in the early goings. More of that may have helped and Dog is roughly (or ruffly) equal parts hit and miss.

**1/2 (out of four)

Dog Box Office Prediction

After a lengthy hiatus from starring roles, Channing Tatum is back in theaters with Dog on February 18th. He plays a U.S. army ranger tasked with bringing a military pooch to his handler’s funeral. The dramedy also marks Tatum’s debut behind the camera (he co-directs with Reid Carolin). Jane Adams, Kevin Nash, Q’Orianka Kilcher, Ethan Suplee, Emmy Raver-Lampman, and Bill Burr make up the supporting cast.

As mentioned, Tatum’s been on a bit of a hiatus lately. His last headlining role was all the way back in 2017 with Logan Lucky (he did turn up in Free Guy and will be seen next month alongside Sandra Bullock and Brad Pitt in The Lost City).

Looking at potential canine comps, A Dog’s Purpose back in 2017 took in $18 million out of the gate. A Dog’s Way Home made $11 million for its start two years later. One caveat – both were based on novels whereas this Dog is an original concept.

Arriving a year after its COVID delay, Dog will hope to attract a female crowd (thanks to Tatum) and those who just generally like the word “dog” in a film’s title. Over the four-day President’s Day frame, there’s a decent chance this could over perform and possibly get to $20 million (or it could flame out with $10 million). I’m thinking $12-$15 million is most likely.

Dog opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Uncharted prediction, click here:

Uncharted Box Office Prediction

Blacklight Box Office Prediction

Some 13 years after Taken kicked off a whole new action phase for its star, Liam Neeson is back in revenge mode with Blacklight (out February 11th). And this time… wait for it!… it’s his granddaughter who’s been snatched by nefarious criminals. Mark Williams, who worked with Neeson in Honest Thief, directs and the supporting cast includes Emmy Raver-Lampman, Taylor John Smith, and Aidan Quinn.

One look at the Blacklight trailer illuminates Neeson in his late career comfort zone. Post Taken, that’s resulted in moneymakers like Unknown, Non-Stop and, of course, the Taken sequels.

Lately, however, the grosses have slowed. Some of that might have been a result of releases that occurred in this COVID era. The aforementioned Thief in fall 2020 premiered to only $3.6 million. Last year, The Marksman took in $3.7 million over the four-day MLK frame. Pre pandemic, in 2019, Cold Pursuit started with $11 million (still far off from earlier efforts).

I don’t see a compelling why Blacklight would approach double digits (or even high single ones) and it won’t help that male viewers will be distracted by the Bengals vs. Rams on Sunday of its debut weekend. It might outdo Thief and The Marksman, but maybe not.

Blacklight opening weekend: $3.8 million

For my Death on the Nile prediction, click here:

Death on the Nile Box Office Prediction

For my Marry Me prediction, click here:

Marry Me Box Office Prediction