Tag: emma stone

97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 28th Edition

When I did my forecast for the 96th Academy Awards around the same late September time frame last year, it yielded nine of the ten eventual Best Picture nominees. The only miss was not having The Zone of Interest in the hopefuls and I had it ranked 11th in other possibilities. It is also worth noting that eventual winner Oppenheimer was ranked #1.

For Best Director, it was four of five with Christopher Nolan correctly atop my chart. Four of five was also the score for Best Actress and Actor and I had victors Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) in first. For the supporting races, both were 3 out of five. In Supporting Actress, Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) was listed in second while Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) was projected highest in Supporting Actor. In the Screenplay derbies, it was 3 of 5 in each with Adapted recipient American Fiction and Original top finisher Anatomy of a Fall both listed 4th of 5.

That history lesson illustrates that the script for the previous Oscars had largely been written several months before nominations were unveiled. Will the 97th ceremony follow a similar pattern?

It sure doesn’t seem like it. I maintain that there’s no clear frontrunner for BP while Oppenheimer was definitely in that position a year ago. Solid to fair cases could be made for Blitz, The Brutalist, Anora, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, or Dune: Part Two to take gold. There’s also no slam dunks thus far in the acting competitions whereas Downey Jr. was kind of a no-brainer at this juncture and Murphy, Stone, and Randolph were in the 1 or 2 positions in their races.

That makes it all the more intriguing as the 2024 season plays out. The big news this week was that TIFF People’s Choice Winner The Life of Chuck will not open until summer 2025. Therefore you’ll see it drop from contention everywhere I had it listed as a possibility below. Last week, I only had Chuck actually being nominated in Adapted Screenplay. It is replaced by Dune.

I considered elevating the unseen Blitz back to first position in BP, but am giving it to The Brutalist still by a hair. It was announced this week that the latter will release on December 20th via A24. There is one change in BP as I’m putting in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain for its initial top 10 appearance at the expense of The Room Next Door.

This week I’m also shutting the door on Tilda Swinton in Best Actress for The Room Next Door with Nightbitch‘s Amy Adams returning to the quintet. I went back and forth about whether to include Adams or Babygirl‘s Nicole Kidman.

You can all view all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (E)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+2)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)

14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (E)

7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+3)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (E)

5. Blitz (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)

9. September 5 (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Queer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Vermiglio (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kneecap (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All We Imagine as Light

Pedro Páramo

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Savages (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daughters (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Skywalkers: A Love Story

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maria (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Anora (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Conclave

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Wicked (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Maria (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Nickel Boys

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Substance (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maria (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

The Room Next Door

The Life of Chuck

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+2)

5. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (E)

8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

“We’re Back” from Moana 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Civil War

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Better Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)

And that adds up to these numbers generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Blitz

9 Nominations

The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

6 Nominations

Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Real Pain, Saturday Night

2 Nominations

Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nickel Boys, Wicked, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Venice Makes Room for Next Door

The 2024 Venice Film Festival has wrapped production with a bit of a surprise ending. Pedro Almodóvar’s English language debut The Room Next Door has taken the Golden Lion (equivalent to Best Picture) in Italy. The relationship drama starring Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton has received positive reviews (95% RT), but the general consensus is they might not have been strong enough for this particular prize.

What does that mean for its Oscar chances? Well, it certainly helps exposure prior to its December 20th limited stateside start and nationwide expansion in January. Five of the past seven Golden Lion recipients have ended up nabbing BP nods – The Shape of Water (winner), Roma, Joker, Nomadland (winner), and Poor Things.

Venice spreads the wealth when it comes to the victors. The Silver Lion designation (equivalent to Best Director) was bestowed to Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. The Holocaust survivor epic was the breakout of the fest with its awards possibilities going through the roof. It could become a major player at the 97th Academy Awards and Corbet’s inclusion here proves it. On the other hand, this was probably the betting odds favorite for the Lion and didn’t get there.

The Volpi Cups go to Actor and Actress. The former went to Vincent Lindon for The Quiet Son. It’s doubtful that he’ll be a factor in the Academy’s race. In the past decade, two Volpi Actor winners have garnered Oscar nods (Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate and Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin).

In Best Actress, the story could be different with Nicole Kidman being named for Babygirl. Seeking her sixth Academy nom, she was unable to accept the Venice award due to her mother’s passing. At the Oscars, Best Actress is starting to look crowded. Yet A24 is likely to mount a spirited campaign for the performer. Half of the previous the Actress honorees have made the Academy’s cut: winners Emma Stone (La La Land) and Olivia Colman (The Favourite) in addition to Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), and Cate Blanchett (Tár).

Keep checking the blog for rolling awards coverage!

Oscar Predictions: Maria

Pablo Larraín’s latest biopic about an iconic woman facing tragic circumstances has hit the Venice circuit with Telluride to follow this weekend. Maria casts Angelina Jolie as renowned opera singer Maria Callas. Set during her final days, it completes a thematic trilogy from Larraín preceded by 2016’s Jackie and 2021’s Spencer. Costars include Valeria Golino, Haluk Bilginer, and Kodi Smit-McPhee. Netflix picked up distribution rights on the eve of its premiere and it is expected to stream by year’s end.

It’s been some time since Jolie had a role expected to garner awards attention. 25 years ago, she won Best Supporting Actress for Girl, Interrupted. Her other nomination, in lead Actress, came for 2008’s Changeling. Her director for Maria has an impressive track record with leading performer nominations. Natalie Portman’s work as Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis in Jackie made the final five eight years ago and she ultimately fell short to Emma Stone (La La Land). As Princess Diana in Spencer, Kristen Stewart was up in Actress with Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) taking gold. Stewart’s nod marked Spencer‘s only nomination while Jackie contended in Costume Design and Original Score. Note that neither received noms in Picture, Director, or for their screenplays.

Early word-of-mouth from Italy indicates that Maria might be the weakest of the three films (the RT score is currently 72%). Jolie is mostly receiving kudos and Netflix is likely to mount a serious campaign. Down the line tech mentions for Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, and Cinematography are feasible. However, I do wonder if the somewhat lackluster write-ups could mean Jolie is the only possibility. I’ve had Golino listed toward the bottom of other possibilities in Supporting Actress, but her role is apparently just one scene. You can expect to see her drop out in my next predictions post.

I’ve had Jolie parked in second place (behind Amy Adams in Nightbitch) for weeks in Actress. She still may be in the top 5 when I update on Monday and I suspect she will. Will she stay in second place? I’m more unsure of that. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Kinds of Kindness Box Office Prediction

Kinds of Kindness is the latest offering from Yorgos Lanthimos and it hits just months after the filmmaker’s multi Oscar nominee Poor Things. The dark comedy anthology stars Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons, Willem Dafoe, Margaret Qualley, Hong Chau, Joe Alwyn, Mamoudou Athie, and Hunter Schafer.

After a Cannes premiere that yielded mostly positive reviews, the RT score now stands at a respectable if not overwhelming 73%. This is not expected to be the awards player that Poor Things was (four wins in 11 nominations including Stone for Best Actress). That buzz certainly assisted in getting Things to a $34 million domestic gross.

Kindness did open on 5 screens this weekend in NY/LA and it posted the strongest per theater average of 2024 with an estimated $350k or $70k per. On June 28th, it will see an expansion to 500+ venues across the nation.

How this plays between the coasts is a trickier proposition. I’ll say the wider rollout gives it another $3 million and change as I don’t see it reaching Poor numbers.

Kinds of Kindness opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my A Quiet Place: Day One prediction, click here:

A Quiet Place: Day One Box Office Prediction

For my Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 prediction, click here:

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction

97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 27, 2024

The Cannes Film Festival is complete and it has vaulted some pictures into contention while essentially eliminating others. Those on the others list include Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 from Kevin Costner, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.

On the other hand, Andrea Arnold’s Bird and Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice still have life, but certainly are not sure things. Same goes for Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos and Jacques Audiard’s Emila Pérez (I’m pretty high on its chances though).

The film that did itself the most good is Sean Baker’s Anora which took the Palme d’Or over the long weekend. It now climbs into my Picture, Director, and Actress (Mikey Madison) fields.

While the Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig by Mohammad Rasoulof is unlikely to be submitted for International Feature Film, there’s a chance it contends in BP and you’ll see it listed here for the first time as a possibility.

Let’s get into all of it and you can anticipate the next update in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

6. The End (PR: 6) (E)

7. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 18) (+5)

14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)

16. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Dìdi (PR: 14) (-3)

18. Hit Man (PR: 19) (+1)

19. Bird (PR: 13) (-6)

20. Maria (PR: 22) (+2)

21. Here (PR: 25) (+4)

22. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)

23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)

24. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Civil War (PR: 21) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2

Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-2)

14. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice

Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2

Andrea Arnold, Bird

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (E)

5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)

9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)

15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2

Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)

7. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)

11. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robin Wright, Here (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (moved to Actress)

Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

Leigh Gill, Blitz

97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 19th, 2024

My latest round of Oscar predictions arrives at the midpoint of the Cannes Film Festival and the hoopla on the French Riviera has cleared up some lingering questions. Is Francis Ford Coppola’s decades in development sci-fi epic Megalopolis a contender? That answer appears to be no. Same goes for Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.

It gets a lot more uncertain after that. Andrea Arnold’s Bird has its fans and I do think its BP chances are intact. Category placement issues abound. I thought Barry Keoghan would be lead for Bird, but reaction suggests he’s supporting.

Then there’s Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos. The WOM for it suggests it definitely faces longer odds for Academy inclusion that his two predecessors The Favourite and Poor Things. That said, I wouldn’t totally discount it. I could see it generating a lone Original Screenplay nod. Right now I’m putting Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons in lead as possibilities and hopefully we’ll know soon if they’re being campaigned there or in supporting.

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga also is behind its predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road in terms of possibilities. While it should land a few tech nods, BP and Director chances are feasible yet less than what happened nine years ago.

I would suggest that Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez has done itself the most good at Cannes. The crowd-pleasing reaction has me elevating it into the top 10 in BP with Zoe Saldaña in Actress and Karla Sofia Gascón in Supporting Actress. In previous posts, I had those two performers in each other’s categories. It’s still not locked as to where they will be, but this is my best guess based on the information available.

In news not related to Cannes, it was announced that The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat will be a Hulu exclusive premiere. That would seem to take it out of contention at the Oscars.

I will likely have another update posted next weekend since more Cannes titles will be unveiled including Horizon: An American Saga and The Apprentice. Stay tuned, folks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

6. The End (PR: 6) (E)

7. His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 15) (+6)

10. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Bird (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Dídi (PR: 23) (+9)

15. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (-4)

17. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (-10)

18. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-10)

19. Hit Man (PR: 20) (+1)

20. A Real Pain (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Civil War (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Maria (PR: 17) (-5)

23. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Megalopolis

The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

Hard Truths

SNL 1975

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+9)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (E)

13. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 5) (-9)

15. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)

3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Supporting)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 12) (E)

13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 13) (E)

14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (moved to Supporting)

Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR 3) (E)

4. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+4)

5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Kinglsey Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)

14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Barry Keoghan, Bird (moved to Supportong)

Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 11) (E)

12. Robin Wright, Here (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (E)

14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

Erin Kellyman, Blitz

Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (moved to lead)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+4)

5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3 (-4)

8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)

10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Franz Rogowski, Bird

Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness

Oscar Predictions: Kinds of Kindness

The previous two features from Yorgos Lanthimos – 2018’s The Favourite and last year’s Poor Things – combined for 21 Oscar nominations. This includes two Actress victories for Olivia Colman in the former and Emma Stone in the latter. Mere months after Poor Things, Lanthimos’s follow-up Kinds of Kindness has premiered at Cannes prior to its June 21st stateside bow. The three hour anthology has Ms. Stone headlining alongside Jesse Plemons, Willem Dafoe, Margaret Qualley, Hong Chau, Joe Alwyn, Mamoudou Athie, and Hunter Schafer.

Unlike his two Academy contending predecessors, Lanthimos reunites with writing partner Efthimis Filippou. They collaborated on the filmmaker’s earlier projects Dogtooth (2012), The Lobster (2016), and The Killing of a Sacred Deer (2017).

The Rotten Tomatoes score is 94%, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Several critics, while praising many aspects, are calling this an easier picture to admire than like. This will be a true test of the Academy’s affinity for its maker. Those last two projects yielded five acting nominations and the aforementioned two wins. Stone and Plemons in particular are generating plenty of kudos. I do question whether Searchlight hones in on any of the cast for recognition. Perhaps SAG will take notice. In my previous prediction posts, I singled out Hong Chau for Supporting Actress consideration. I doubt that happens now. The best bet could be a sole Screenplay nod.

I wouldn’t discount Kinds receiving the kindness of awards voters. That said, I believe it faces more of an uphill battle than Lanthimos’s recent things that the Academy favoured. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Fancy Dance

Lily Gladstone’s work in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon last year was met with nominations across the awards spectrum with victories at the Golden Globes and SAG. Yet she came up short (and was almost certainly runner-up) at the Academy Awards when Emma Stone took Best Actress for Poor Things.

She may have another at bat with Fancy Dance. The drama/mystery from Erica Tremblay casts Gladstone as an Oklahoman searching for her missing sister while caring for her niece. Isabel DeRoy-Olson, Ryan Begay, and Shea Whigham costar. After its premiere at Sundance in January, Dance is in theaters on a limited basis June 21st before an Apple TV streaming start on June 28th.

Reviews out of Park City were impressive and this stands at 97% on Rotten Tomatoes. This is not as high profile a project as Gladstone’s preceding picture. Apple will need to put together an aggressive campaign for its lead to contend in Actress for a second year in a row. Her chances are lower this time around to make the Academy’s dance, but it’s possible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

97th Academy Awards Predictions: April 21, 2024

A month and change after the 96th Academy Awards aired, it is time for my first ranked predictions for the next ceremony coming your way March 2, 2025.

Yes, it’s early. However, I posted my inaugural numbered forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies around the same juncture a year ago. The results named the eventual winners in all six races. In BP, four of the 10 contenders were predicted (including Oppenheimer) while three others were listed in Other Possibilities. For Director, I correctly called 2 of the 5 filmmakers (including Christopher Nolan) with two others in Other Possibilities. Best Actress yielded just one, but it was statue recipient Emma Stone for Poor Things. Two others were listed in Other Possibilities. Best Actor also saw one with three of the others in Other Possibilities (including Oppenheimer himself, Cillian Murphy). For Supporting Actress, it was 1 and then 2 in Other Possibilities (including victor Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers). Finally, in Supporting Actor, it was one in the projected quintet with three in Other Possibilities and that includes Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.

Let’s get those caveats out of the way. Some of the performers predicted in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. That happened in 2023 when I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) at #1 in Supporting Actress and then she ended up being campaigned for and was nominated in Best Actress. Some of the movies will get pushed back to 2025. There’s a few from my first projections in April 2023 that were supposed to come out that year. You’ll find them listed below and that list includes heavy hitters like Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Challengers, The Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Nightbitch, and The Fire Inside to name a few.

You can expect these predictions to be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post starting in late summer/early fall when festival season goes into overdrive. A smattering of these titles will have reviews up when they premiere at Cannes less than a month from now. They include Bird, Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Apprentice, Emilia Perez, and Horizon: An American Saga.

With all that out of the way – here are those first ranked takes!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Conclave

4. Sing Sing

5. The End

6. Queer

7. The Fire Inside

8. Bird

9. Kinds of Kindness

10. Dídi

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux

12. The Apprentice

13. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

15. Civil War

16. Maria

17. Megalopolis

18. The Piano Lesson

19. Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2

20. A Real Pain

21. Here

22. The Nickel Boys

23. Hard Truths

24. Wicked

25. Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

3. Edward Berger, Conclave

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End

5. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

9. Andrea Arnold, Bird

10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

12. Sean Wang, Dídi

13. Alex Garland, Civil War

14. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

15. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

3. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

4. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux

5. Tilda Swinton, The End

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Nightbitch

7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

8. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

9. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez

10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

12. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

13. Zendaya, Challengers

14. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

3. Barry Keoghan, Bird

4. Daniel Craig, Queer

5. André Holland, The Actor

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

7. George MacKay, The End

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man

10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

12. Adam Driver, Megalopolis

13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

14. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

15. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Joan Chen, Dídi

2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

3. Erin Kellyman, Blitz

4. Lesley Manville, Queer

5. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys

9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

11. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

12. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

13. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

14. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

15. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

5. Leigh Gill, Blitz

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

8. Drew Starkey, Queer

9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man

11. John Lithgow, Conclave

12. Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing

14. Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

15. Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez

As always, keep an eye on the blog for future updates and Oscar Prediction posts focusing in various pictures as they screen!

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

We are about a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the supporting derbies and Best Actor and they can be perused here:

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Oscar Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We now move to Actress. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded the winner with Emma Stone for Poor Things. I will note that her main competitor – Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon – was listed at that time as a Supporting Actress contender and not lead. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Annette Bening in Nyad and Carey Mulligan for Maestro. I did not identify Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) at that early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned for in supporting actress (the vice versa of Gladstone).

Speaking of Gladstone, she could make a return appearance with Fancy Dance. So could Ms. Stone though I do wonder if the anthology format of Kinds of Kindness slots her here or in lead. Other possibilities include the return of Angelina Jolie to the awards conversation as opera legend Maria Callas in Maria and Lady Gaga as Joker’s muse Harley Quinn in Joker: Folie à Deux.

Here’s the first snapshot:

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux

Angelina Jolie, Maria

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

Other Possibilitities:

Glenn Close, The Summer Book

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez

Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance

Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

Tilda Swinton, The End

Zendaya, Challengers

Best Director is up next!