Todd’s Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

As the fall movie season officially gets underway, that means a host of Oscar contenders will be opening between September and December, with many of them screening at upcoming film festivals – including Toronto, Telluride, New York, and Venice. What does that mean? My first round of Oscar predictions has arrived at the blog!

You may say it seems too early to start predicting Oscar nominees? This is true… to a point. At this same time last year, I did my first early predictions. In today’s first category – Supporting Actress – those predictions yielded three out of the five nominees, including Lupita Nyong’o from Twelve Years a Slave, the eventual winner. For followers of my blog, you’ll know that I’ll be consistently refining and updating my predictions until nominations are announced in early 2015.

Today – we begin with Supporting Actress. Tomorrow: Supporting Actor. Sunday: Actress. Monday: Actor. Tuesday: Director. Wednesday: Picture.

We’ll keep it simple for the early predictions. I will just list my round of five that I’m currently predicting along with a subsection of other possible nominees. Enjoy!

Todd’s Early Best Supporting Actress Predictions

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Emily Blunt, Into the Woods

Laura Dern, Wild

Carmen Ejogo, Selma

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

 

 
Other Possible Nominees:

Jessica Chastain, Interstellar

Jennifer Garner, Men, Women, and Children

Anne Hathaway, Interstellar

Anna Kendrick, Into the Woods

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher

Maya Rudolph, Inherent Vince

Emma Stone, Birdman

Katherine Waterston, Inherent Vice

Emily Watson, The Theory of Everything

Naomi Watts, St. Vincent

Oprah Winfrey, Selma

That’s all for now, folks! I’ll be back with my early guesstimates for Supporting Actor tomorrow…

 

Edge of Tomorrow Movie Review

Over the past decade, Tom Cruise has concentrated mostly on sci-fi and action B movies in between the occasional Mission: Impossible franchise pic. Edge of Tomorrow resides on the higher end of the spectrum as far as quality. It does so mostly by featuring an aspect of Cruise that many of his latest films have not – the guy’s got a sense of humor and can use it well.

Tomorrow‘s plot is explained mostly by CNN anchors as the movie opens. An alien race called Mimics have wreaked havoc all over the world and Cruise’s character Major William Cage has the cushy position of explaining how things are going to talking heads on TV. He’s never actually seen battle and that’s perfectly OK with him. That is until he’s summoned by a general (Brendan Gleeson) to cover a real battle up close and when Cage refuses, he’s stripped of his rank and forced to actually fight in it.

This leads to a situation where Cage’s character is killed (no spoiler here) and the aliens blood is splattered on him. And that creates the Groundhog Day situation where he wakes up everyday on that battle morning until he figures out a way to prevail and eliminate the alien race. Emily Blunt is cast as a super soldier who is the only one that understands Cage’s unique predicament. If this all sounds a bit silly – I suppose it is. However, screenwriters Christopher McQuarrie, Jez Butterworth, and John-Henry Butterworth do a remarkable job at making this all make sense.

Most importantly, Cruise succeeds at bringing a sense of fun for most of Edge‘s running time. The script allows Cruise and Blunt to have some humorous interplay, particularly because its up to Blunt to “kill” him every time he screws up… which is often. Edge of Tomorrow doesn’t take itself too seriously for about two-thirds of its length. It’s only in the last act that it becomes humorless and therefore a more conventional and run-of-the-mill alien invasion flick.

Bill Paxton seems to be having a good time as a squadron leader and Noah Taylor turns up as a scientist who must explain important plot points to Cruise – just as he did over 12 years ago in Vanilla Sky. Blunt is certainly cast against type but she makes the most of her butt kicking role. Doug Liman’s direction is sturdy as you’d expect and The Bourne Identity director knows his well around an action sequence.

The so-so final act aside, Edge of Tomorrow stood out to me because Cruise seems to having more fun that he has in awhile. I would put it ahead of his latest lackluster fare such as Jack Reacher and Oblivion. If you’re looking for a decent summer popcorn watching experience, this fits the bill.

*** (out of four)

Edge of Tomorrow Box Office Prediction

Described as sort of a sci-fi Groundhog Day, Tom Cruise headlines Edge of Tomorrow opening Friday and its release is a big box office question mark for Warner Bros. Directed by Bourne Identity and Mr. and Mrs. Smith‘s Doug Liman and costarring Emily Blunt and Bill Paxton, Tomorrow comes with a reported price tag of nearly $180 million dollars.

My suspicion is that it will need to do very well overseas to recoup its considerable budget. In its favor, Tomorrow is garnering rock solid reviews with a current 95% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. However, it has plenty going against it. Cruise is not the box office force he once was and only the fourth Mission: Impossible surpassed $100M in the last five years. While this would seem to be a picture that women may join their husbands for, they might be attending The Fault in Our Stars (or Maleficent) instead. Additionally, I feel the marketing campaign hasn’t done a great job of showing what Tomorrow is really about – other than being an expensive looking sci-fi flick.

In April of 2013, Cruise’s Oblivion got off to a promising $37 million start before its eventual $89 million domestic take. It’s certainly possible that Edge of Tomorrow could reach that number, but I’m skeptical. I feel it will likely open at around the quarter century mark and not reach $100M stateside when all is said and done.

Edge of Tomorrow opening weekend prediction: $23.7 million

For my The Fault in Our Stars prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/01/the-fault-in-our-stars-box-office-prediction/