Two years ago, David Fincher’s Gone Girl successfully adapted its mega-hit novel source material. It earned $167 million stateside and nabbed an Oscar nomination for its lead, Rosamund Pike. This Friday’s The Girl on the Train has been compared to that title frequently. It’s based on a mystery thriller novel that scored with readers just last year. It’s expected to bring in a large female demographic when it debuts this weekend. It has a female lead (Emily Blunt) with a role some have speculated could garner Academy attention. In my previous Oscar prediction posts (they come out every Thursday folks!), I’ve listed Train as a possibility for Actress (Blunt), Supporting Actress (Haley Bennett), Adapted Screenplay, and even Picture. I will note that I had yet to include any of those nominations within the predicted five (or five to ten regarding Picture).
Well, today the critical reaction was unleashed on The Girl on the Train with numerous reviews rolling in. The verdict? Mixed. Very mixed. EW gave it a rave, but several other prominent writers were not kind at all. I don’t really believe this will endanger its box office prospects (I’ve got it slated for a $28.2M debut). Its Oscar prospects, on the other hand, appear… gone. This Thursday, I’ll have my updated post listing the possibilities for the previously mentioned categories. Blunt and Bennett have received some kind words in even some of the negative reviews. Yet their inclusion in the acting races appears far less likely than last week. Screenplay or Picture? Not a chance.
It’s my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories coming your way and there has been some news since last Thursday. It was officially confirmed that Martin Scorsese’s passion project Silence will be released in December in time for awards consideration (maybe we’ll finally get a trailer soon!). There were trailers released for some high-profile contenders: Denzel Washington’s Fences and Mike Mills’s 20th Century Women.
As we do every week, I’ll rank my top 25 contenders for Best Picture along with top 15 for the directing, acting, and screenplay races (you can also see the movement from the previous week’s ranking to now).
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 4)
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
5. Lion (PR: 7)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
7. Moonlight (PR: 6)
8. Loving (PR: 8)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Jackie (PR: 11)
11. Arrival (PR: 12)
12. Sully (PR: 13)
13. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
14. Hell or High Water (PR: 16)
15. Live by Night (PR: 14)
16. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 15)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 19)
18. 20th Century Women (PR: 17)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 21)
20. Passengers (PR: 25)
21. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
22. The Founder (PR: 22)
23. Allied (PR: 18)
24. The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 23)
Dropped Out:
Collateral Beauty
Hacksaw Ridge
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)
7. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)
8. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)
9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 11)
10. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)
11. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)
12. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)
13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)
14. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Robert Zemeckis, Allied
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 9)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)
10. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 12)
11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)
13. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 8)
14. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)
15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
11. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 12)
12. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 11)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)
14. Rachel Weisz, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Sally Field, My Name is Doris (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rooney Mara, Una
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 6)
7. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)
8. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
9. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 10)
10. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 11)
11. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 9)
12. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 13)
13. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 12)
14. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
4. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
5. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 7)
8. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 11)
10. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
11. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 9)
12. Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
13. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 10)
14. Sienna Miller, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty
Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation
Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. La Land Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Jackie (PR: 4)
5. Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
8. 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
9. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 13)
10. The Lobster (PR: 8)
11. Zootopia (PR: 11)
12. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)
13. Gold (PR: 12)
14. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Collateral Beauty
Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 3)
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
4. Lion (PR: 4)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Elle (PR: 11)
9. Sully (PR: 8)
10. Love & Friendship (PR: 12)
11. Indignation (PR: 13)
12. The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)
13. Live by Night (PR: 9)
14. The Jungle Book (PR: 15)
15. A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denial
And that’ll do it for the weekly Oscar predictions! Check back next week, folks…
Just last year, the novel The Girl on the Train by Paula Hawkins became a massive bestseller and Universal Pictures wasted no time in getting the big screen adaptation to eager audiences. The book has been described as the “next Gone Girl” and the studio would love to replicate that film adaptation’s success here.
The thriller is directed by The Help‘s Tate Taylor and stars Emily Blunt with a supporting cast that includes Rebecca Ferguson, Haley Bennett, Justin Theroux, Luke Evans, Allison Janney, Edgar Ramirez, Lisa Kudrow, and Laura Prepon.
Train should undoubtedly bring in fans of the source material (including a hefty female demographic). Yet reaching the heights of Gone Girl seems like a fairly unlikely prospect. Two years ago in the same first October weekend, the David Fincher effort earned just over $37 million out of the gate. It wouldn’t shock me to see this top $30M for its opening weekend, but I believe a mid-high 20s gross is more probable. If Train manages solid audience buzz, it could keep chugging along with smallish drops in future weekends.
The Girl on the Train opening weekend prediction: $28.2 million
For my The Birth of a Nation prediction, click here:
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are here in the eight major categories. As with previous weeks, I’m listing the Top 25 possibilities for Best Picture and Top 15 for the other races, while showing the titles and performers I believe will currently be nominated. Plus – you can also track the movement of the rankings from the previous week to now.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 4)
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
4. Silence (PR: 3)
5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 9)
6. Moonlight (PR: 5)
7. Lion (PR: 8)
8. Loving (PR: 6)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
10. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
11. Jackie (PR: 12)
12. Arrival (PR: 10)
13. Sully (PR: 14)
14. Live by Night (PR: 19)
15. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)
16. Hell or High Water (PR: 15)
17. 20th Century Women (PR: 16)
18. Allied (PR: 17)
19. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Collateral Beauty (PR: 22)
21. The Jungle Book (PR: 25)
22. The Founder (PR: 20)
23. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 24)
24. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 23)
25. Passengers (PR: 18)
Dropped Out:
The Girl on the Train
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 5)
7. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 10)
9. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)
10. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 9)
11. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 11)
12. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)
13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 14)
14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (15)
15. Robert Zemeckis, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 6)
4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 12)
9. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)
11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)
13. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)
14. Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: 13)
15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
Bryan Cranston, Wakefield
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)
10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
11. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 11)
12. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 12)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)
14. Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 14)
15. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sally Hawkins, Maudie
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
4. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)
5. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 15)
7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
8. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 14)
9. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)
10. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 6)
11. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 11)
12. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
13. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)
14. Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: 12)
15. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bill Nighy, Their Finest
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 5)
5. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 10)
8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)
9. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 8)
10. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 9)
11. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 12)
12. Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (PR: 15)
13. Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 11)
15. Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Jackie (PR: 5)
5. Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
7. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
8. The Lobster (PR: 8)
9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 13)
10. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)
11. Zootopia (PR: 10)
12. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
13. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 11)
14. Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rules Don’t Apply
Passengers
Miss Sloane
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 4)
4. Lion (PR: 5)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
7. Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Sully (PR: 8)
9. Live by Night (PR: 12)
10. The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)
11. Elle (PR: 10)
12. Love and Friendship (PR: 11)
13. Indignation (PR: 15)
14. Denial (PR: 13)
15. The Jungle Book (PR: 14)
And that’ll do it for my Oscar predictions this week! Until next time…
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories are here for your reading pleasure!
The Toronto Film Festival has ferreted out some would-be contenders, most notably Ewan McGregor’s American Pastoral which debuted to lackluster reviews. I had it at #9 last week for a Best Picture and it’s nowhere to be seen in the Top 25 now.
As I’ll do every week, I’m listing 25 possibilities for Best Picture along with 15 for Director, the Acting Races, and the Screenplay categories. I’m also noting the movement in the rankings among the contenders and what and who has dropped out.
Let’s go to it:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1) La Land Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3) Silence (PR: 3)
4) Fences (PR: 4)
5) Moonlight (PR: 5)
6) Loving (PR: 6)
7) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)
8) Lion (PR: 11)
9) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10) Arrival (PR: 13)
11) Hidden Figures (PR: 15)
12) Jackie (PR: 12)
13) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)
14) Sully (PR: 16)
15) Hell or High Water (PR: 18)
16) 20th Century Women (PR: 14)
17) Allied (PR: 19)
18) Passengers (PR: 17)
19) Live by Night (PR: 25)
20) The Founder (PR: 21)
21) The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
22) Collateral Beauty (PR: 23)
23) Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
24) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
25) The Jungle Book (PR: 22)
DROPPED OUT:
American Pastoral, Moana, Gold
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3) Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
4) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 5)
5) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
7) Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)
8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)
9) Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)
10) Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 11)
11) Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 14)
12) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 13)
13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)
14) Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
15) Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)
2) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
3) Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
4) Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 6)
5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6) Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 8)
7) Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 9)
8) Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 4)
9) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
10) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)
11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield (PR: 11)
12) Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)
13) Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
14) Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)
15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2) Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)
3) Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 2)
4) Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)
8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
9) Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)
10) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)
11) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 14)
12) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
13) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 12)
14) Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 10)
15) Sally Hawkins, Maudie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
2) Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)
4) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 1)
5) Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6) Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 14)
7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
8) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
9) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 15)
10) Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)
11) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
12) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked in Supporting)
13) Billy Nighy, Their Finest (PR: Not Ranked)
14) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)
15) Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women
Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
John Legend, La La Land
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
4) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
5) Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
7) Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
8) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
9) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 5)
10) Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 14)
11) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 8)
12) Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: Not Ranked)
13) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
14) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 11)
15) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (13)
Dropped Out:
Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral
Laura Dern, The Founder
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) La La Land (PR: 3)
2) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
3) Moonlight (PR: 2)
4) Loving (PR: 4)
5) Jackie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6) 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
7) Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
8) The Lobster (PR: 8)
9) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)
10) Zootopia (PR: 11)
11) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
12) Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 14)
13) Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
14) Passengers (PR: 13)
15) Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Founder
Gold
Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Fences (PR: 1)
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
4) Silence (PR: 4)
5) Lion (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6) Arrival (PR: 8)
7) Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
8) Sully (PR: 12)
9) The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)
10) Elle (PR: 11)
11) Love & Friendship (PR: 9)
12) Live by Night (PR: 13)
13) Denial (PR: 14)
14) The Jungle Book (PR: 15)
15) Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
American Pastoral
And there you have it, Oscar watchers! I’ll be back with my weekly predictions on September 22nd…
As readers of my blog may have seen last week, I made my first initial round of Oscar predictions last week. Now… we move onto the next phase. Every Thursday, I will be giving my weekly updated Oscar predictions in the following categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay.
When we get into the later part of the year, the list will expand to include other categories. Each Thursday, I will list 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 possibilities for the other races and you’ll be able to track whether the picks go up or down on a weekly basis.
Please note that if I rank something #1 in a certain race, it doesn’t mean I think it’ll win. It means I think its nomination is currently the most probable. The film festival season (especially Toronto) can and probably will alter some of these picks even next week.
Let’s get right to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1) La Land Land
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Silence
4) Fences
5) Moonlight
6) Loving
7) Manchester by the Sea
8) Nocturnal Animals
9) American Pastoral
Other Possibilities:
10) The Birth of a Nation
11) Lion
12) Jackie
13) Arrival
14) 20th Century Women
15) Hidden Figures
16) Sully
17) Passengers
18) Hell or High Water
19) Allied
20) Moana
21) The Founder
22) The Jungle Bok
23) Collateral Beauty
24) Gold
25) Live by Night
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Martin Scorsese, Silence
4) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
5) Denzel Washington, Fences
Other Possibilities:
6) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
7) Jeff Nichols, Loving
8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
9) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
10) Denis Villenueve, Arrival
11) Garth Davis, Lion
12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
13) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
14) Pablo Larrain, Jackie
15) Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Denzel Washington, Fences
2) Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
3) Joel Edgerton, Loving
4) Michael Keaton, The Founder
5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Other Possibilities:
6) Tom Hanks, Sully
7) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
8) Ryan Gosling, La La Land
9) Dev Patel, Lion
10) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield
12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
14) Andrew Garfield, Silence
15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Emma Stone, La La Land
2) Viola Davis, Fences
3) Natalie Portman, Jackie
4) Ruth Negga, Loving
5) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Other Possibilities:
6) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals
7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle
8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
9) Amy Adams, Arrival
10) Rooney Mara, Una
11) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
12) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers
13) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
14) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
15) Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
2) Liam Neeson, Silence
3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
4) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
5) Stephen Henderson, Fences
Other Possibilities:
6) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
8) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This
9) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
10) Timothy Spall, Denial
11) Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women
12) Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
13) John Legend, La La Land
14) Aaron Eckhart, Sully
15) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight
3) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals
4) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold
Other Possibilities:
6) Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral
7) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
8) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation
9) Nicole Kidman, Lion
10) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
11) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan
12) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women
13) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty
14) Margo Martindale, The Hollars
15) Laura Dern, The Founder
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Manchester by the Sea
2) Moonlight
3) La La Land
4) Loving
5) Jackie
Other Possibilities:
6) 20th Century Women
7) Hell or High Water
8) The Lobster
9) The Birth of a Nation
10) The Founder
11) Zootopia
12) Gold
13) Passengers
14) Rules Don’t Apply
15) Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Fences
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Nocturnal Animals
4) Silence
5) American Pastoral
Other Possibilities:
6) Lion
7) Hidden Figures
8) Arrival
9) Love & Friendship
10) The Girl on the Train
11) Elle
12) Sully
13) Live by Night
14) Denial
15) The Jungle Book
And that’ll do it for now, folks! My weekly updates will be back next Thursday…
Day 3 of my early Oscar predictions arrives with Best Actress. These late August/early September guesstimates yielded two of the eventual nominees in 2014 and three last year.
Looking over the field of possibilities for Best Actress in 2016, one thing seems clear. More than most years, this particular race seems loaded with legitimate contenders and it could be one of the more competitive categories of the year.
Let’s start with three actresses who have received nominations but never won: four-time nominee and never winner Annette Bening is headlining this fall’s 20th Century Women. She was a strong contender for wins in both 1999 and 2004 (for American Beauty and Being Julia), but lost out in both cases to Hilary Swank.
There’s five-time nominee and never winner Amy Adams, who has two pictures in which she could be recognized: Arrival and Nocturnal Animals.
We have Viola Davis in this December’s Denzel Washington directed Fences. She was nominated for 2011’s The Help but lost to Meryl Streep in her role as The Iron Lady.
Speaking of Meryl Streep… there’s Meryl Streep going for her 20th nomination as Florence Foster Jenkins. Its potential drawback could be muted box office numbers this summer, but you can never count her out.
Emma Stone will likely draw attention for her work in the musical drama La La Land. Ruth Negga has received early raves costarring in the interracial romance Loving. Then there’s the biopic Jackie (as in Kennedy), which casts 2010 winner Natalie Portman in the title role. She could be a major contender, yet there’s some uncertainty as to when it’ll come out.
Oh there’s more! Jennifer Lawrence will go for her fifth nomination in seven years with sci-fi drama Passengers. Emily Blunt could be a player with The Girl on the Train, as could previous nominees Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), Rosamund Pike (A United Kingdom), and Rooney Mara (Lion). Not to mention previous winners like Sally Field (My Name is Doris), Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky) and Marion Cotillard (Allied).
Bottom line: this race looks packed and we’ll see how it develops in the coming weeks. For now…
Nearly four years after the original performed above expectations at the box office, the dark fairy tale sequel The Huntsman Winter’s War invades theaters next weekend and hopes to reach the levels of its predecessors. That could turn out to a fairy tale wish for Universal Pictures.
In the summer of 2012, Snow White and the Huntsman cast Kristen Stewart (still hot off the Twilight franchise) as the former title character with Liam Hemsworth costarring as the latter. Charlize Theron also was in the mix as the Evil Queen alongside Sam Chaflin and Nick Frost. Everyone with the exception of Stewart is back with Emily Blunt and Jessica Chastain included this time around. Snow White director Rupert Sanders has been replaced with Cedric Nicolas-Troyan.
While reviews for the original were mixed, it blasted out of the gate with a $56 million opening weekend and $155 million eventual domestic gross. Yet its reviews practically look glowing compared to this follow-up. Snow White ended up with 48% on Rotten Tomatoes. Winter’s War currently sits at just 18%. Even audiences who went to see the predecessor gave it only a middling “B” Cinemascore grade.
This begs the question: are audiences clamoring for this sequel, which reportedly cost $115 million to produce? I suspect the answer is no. Winter’s War arrives during the second weekend of The Jungle Book, which should still be doing big business and two weeks before the juggernaut likely to be Captain America: Civil War. This could be somewhat lost in the shuffle.
I believe this will struggle to make even half of what Snow White made during its roll-out and will end up as a large-scale disappointment that many moviegoers won’t be bashful about sleeping on.
The Huntsman Winter’s War opening weekend prediction: $26.3 million
Here we are folks! After numerous posts prognosticating on what and whom will be nominated for the Academy Awards honoring 2015’s best, we will all collectively find out tomorrow morning. This Oscar season has been filled with much intrigue and a great deal of uncertainty.
Many questions abound:
Will the performances of Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) be recognized in lead Actress or Supporting Actress? That query alone makes predicting both of those races tricky this year. I will go with both being recognized in Supporting, but if Oscar voters go lead with one or both, it changes the whole dynamic. There’s also the possibility that Vikander could be honored in Supporting for Ex Machina and not Danish, which adds to the confusion.
Will the Academy nominate their first Star Wars pic (The Force Awakens) since the original 38 years ago? It’s already become the highest grossing film of all time and could certainly lead to even more eyeballs watching the telecast. That said, I have it narrowly missing the cut.
Will Leonardo DiCaprio finally win the gold statue for his work in The Revenant? Precursor awards including the Golden Globes point to yes. A nomination seems assured.
Is Spotlight truly the front runner or not? Many other possibilities are out there for an “upset” win. It is, at best, a soft front runner.
I’ll finally note that my predictions reflect a belief that Straight Outta Compton will be shut out. This goes against what several other predictors are saying and many have it being recognized in Best Picture. Another high profile offering that I have coming up empty: Black Mass.
As I’ve done for the last several weeks, I’m listing my predicted nominees and other possibilities in each category by likelihood of being nominated. Just because I have something listed as #1 doesn’t mean I’m predicting it to win (I’ll have my first blog post up predicting the winners this weekend). In parentheses after each entry is how far each predicted nominee/possibility has fallen from my previous predictions last week. On Thursday evening, I’ll have a post up letting you know how well (or not so much) I did.
Let’s get to it, shall we? My FINAL predictions:
Best Picture
As I see it, there are 21 films vying for anywhere from 5-10 spots. The magic number is usually 9 (last year it was 8). I’m going with 9 this year, though I believe 10 is more probable than 8. And strangely enough, my predicted nine has stayed the same over the course of the last month or so. Straight Outta Compton, Sicario, and even The Force Awakens have made some waves of late, but I still have them narrowly missing.
Spotlight (No Change)
The Big Short (No Change)
The Revenant (+3)
Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Room (-4)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
10. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
13. Sicario (+1)
14. Inside Out (-1)
15. Steve Jobs (+1)
16. Ex Machina (+2)
17. Trumbo (No Change)
18. Beasts of No Nation (-3)
19. Son of Saul (+1)
20. The Danish Girl (-1)
21. Creed (No Change)
Best Director
Tuesday’s Directors Guild of America usually provides a reasonably reliable snap shot of at least three or four of the nominees that will end up being recognized here. Their picks were Tom McCarthy, Ridley Scott, George Miller, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, and Adam McKay. Of those, McKay seems the most vulnerable (with Miller and Scott behind). I’ll keep my prediction for Todd Haynes in and there’s certainly a chance there’s a shocker nominee as we sometimes see in this category.
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (+1)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (+1)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (+1)
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (-3)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)
7. Adam McKay, The Big Short (-1)
8. Denis Villenueve, Sicario (+5)
9. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
10. F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton (+1)
11. John Crowley, Brooklyn (-2)
12. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)
13. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
14. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Unranked)
15. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation (-1)
16. Alex Garland, Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)
17. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (-2)
18. Ryan Coogler, Creed (Previously Unranked)
19. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (Previously Unranked)
20. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (Previously Unranked)
Best Actor
This race is increasingly looking like ‘The Leo Show” with Mr. DiCaprio likely to nab (finally) his first Oscar. Only Leo seems to be a totally safe bet (though it would be a surprise to me if Redmayne and Fassbender don’t get in and probably Cranston too). I would say numbers 5-8 are practically interchangeable while anything 9 or below would be a fairly big surprise.
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (No Change)
Matt Damon, The Martian (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Carell, The Big Short (-1)
7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)
8. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (No Change)
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)
10. Michael Caine, Youth (No Change)
11. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (+1)
12. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (-1)
Best Actress
As previously discussed, all the rules go out the window if either Rooney Mara or Alicia Vikander are recognized here instead of in Supporting Actress. That said, I feel pretty confident about Larson, Ronan, and Blanchett. The rest? Not so much.
Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (+1)
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+1)
8. Emily Blunt, Sicario (+3)
9. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (+1)
10. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)
11. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (Previously Unranked)
Best Supporting Actor
Bottom line: I feel like Rylance and Stallone are the only safe bets here. This category has been wide open for quite some time and all 12 performers listed here could get in. Very curious to see how this works out come tomorrow.
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (+1)
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (-1)
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
Christian Bale, The Big Short (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (No Change)
7. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (No Change)
8. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (No Change)
9. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)
11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-1)
12. Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)
Best Supporting Actress
Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander seem like safe bets – as long as they’re nominated here and not in Actress. Kate Winslet (fresh off a Globe win) and Jennifer Jason Leigh should play here, too. The fifth slot is truly up for grabs, I feel.
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (+1)
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (-1)
Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jane Fonda, Youth (-1)
7. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (No Change)
8. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+1)
9. Joan Allen, Room (-1)
10. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (No Change)
11. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)
12. Marion Cotillard, MacBeth (Previously Unranked)
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight (No Change)
Inside Out (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
The Hateful Eight (-1)
Sicario (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ex Machina (-1)
7. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
8. Love and Mercy (No Change)
9. Son of Saul (+2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
Room (No Change)
Steve Jobs (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. The Revenant (+1)
8. Beasts of No Nation (+1)
9. Trumbo (-2)
10. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Unranked)
11. Anomalisa (No Change)
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out (No Change)
Anomalisa (No Change)
Shaun the Sheep Movie (No Change)
Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (No Change)
The Peanuts Movie (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Good Dinosaur (-1)
7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)
8. Minions (Previously Unranked)
Best Documentary Feature (First Time Predictions)
Amy
The Look of Silence
Winter on Fire
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
He Named Me Malala
Other Possibilities:
6. Listen to Me Marlon
7. Best of Enemies
8. The Hunting Ground
9. Where to Invade Next
10. Heart of the Dog
Best Foreign Language Film (First Time Predictions)
Son of Saul
Mustang
A War
The Brand New Testament
Embrace of the Serpent
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fencer
7. Labyrinth of Lies
8. Theeb
9. Viva
Best Production Design
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Carol (-2)
The Revenant (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brooklyn (-1)
7. The Martian (Previously Unranked)
8. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+3)
9. The Hateful Eight (-3)
10. Cinderella (-3)
Best Cinematography
The Revenant (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Sicario (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carol (+1)
7. Son of Saul (+2)
8. The Martian (-2)
9. The Assassin (-1)
10. Spotlight (Previously Unranked)
Best Costume Design
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
Cinderella (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Far from the Madding Crowd (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mad Max: Fury Road (+6)
7. The Hateful Eight (-1)
8. Suffragette (-1)
9. The Revenant (No Change)
10. Mr. Holmes (Previously Unranked)
Best Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Big Short (No Change)
Spotlight (+2)
The Revenant (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (-3)
7. Sicario (+3)
8. Steve Jobs (-2)
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+3)
10. The Hateful Eight (-1)
11. Room (-3)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (+1)
Other Possibilities:
4. Black Mass (-1)
5. Mr. Holmes (No Change)
6. Concussion (No Change)
7. Legend (No Change)
Best Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (+3)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Sicario (No Change)
The Martian (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
7. Bridge of Spies (Previously Unranked)
8. Jurassic World (-1)
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario (-1)
7. Jurassic World (+1)
8. Bridge of Spies (Previously Unranked)
Best Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Jurassic World (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
The Revenant (Previously Unranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ex Machina (-1)
7. The Walk (No Change)
8. Ant-Man (Previously Unranked)
9. Avengers: Age of Ultron (-1)
10. In the Heart of the Sea (-4)
Best Score
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+2)
Bridge of Spies (-2)
The Danish Girl (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spotlight (No Change)
7. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Best Original Song
“See You Again” from Furious 7 (+2)
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (-1)
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (+4)
“Simple Song #3” from Youth (No Change)
“So Long” from Concussion (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
7. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
These FINAL predictions reflect a belief that the following pictures will receive this number of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Revenant
9 Nominations
Mad Max: Fury Road
8 Nominations
Carol
7 Nominations
Bridge of Spies
6 Nominations
The Martian
5 Nominations
The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight
4 Nominations
The Big Short, Brooklyn, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3 Nominations
Room, Sicario, Steve Jobs
2 Nominations
Inside Out, Trumbo
1 Nomination
Beasts of No Nation, Cinderella, Concussion, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Hunting Ground, Joy, Jurassic World, Love and Mercy, The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared, Spectre, Youth
And there you have it, folks! My final Oscar predictions! I’ll have an update posted tomorrow. Until then…
We have arrived at my weekly Friday predictions for who and what will be nominated for the Oscars honoring 2015 pictures. This will be the last Friday I’ll be doing so because the nominations themselves come out this Thursday, January 14th. I will have one final post of predictions either on Tuesday or Wednesday next week.
One consistent source of consternation is whether Rooney Mara will be nominated in lead Actress or Supporting Actress for Carol (same goes, to a lesser degree, for Alicia Vikander’s work in The Danish Girl). Last week, I had her in Actress, but now I’m switching back to Supporting. We shall see. As with my posts every week, it will show where the movers and shakers have shifted around with chances of nomination.
So here goes… my penultimate Oscar predictions…
Best Picture
Spotlight (No Change)
The Big Short (+1)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Room (-2)
The Martian (+1)
The Revenant (+1)
Carol (-2)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Other Possibilities:
10. Straight Outta Compton (+3)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
13. Inside Out (-2)
14. Sicario (+4)
15. Beasts of No Nation (-1)
16. Steve Jobs (No Change)
17. Trumbo (+2)
18. Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)
19. The Danish Girl (+1)
20. Son of Saul (-5)
21. Creed (-4)
DROPPED OUT: Anomalisa
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Director
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (-1)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (+1)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (-1)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, The Big Short (No Change)
7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)
8. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
9. John Crowley, Brooklyn (+3)
10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-1)
11. F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)
12. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
DROPPED OUT: Creed, Mad Max: Fury Road (moved to Original)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out (No Change)
Anomalisa (No Change)
Shaun the Sheep Movie (No Change)
Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (+1)
The Good Dinosaur (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Peanuts Movie (-2)
7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)
DROPPED OUT: Minions
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Good Dinosaur. Out: The Peanuts Movie.
Best Production Design
The Danish Girl (+1)
Carol (-1)
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Brooklyn (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (-1)
7. Cinderella (-1)
8. MacBeth (+3)
9. The Revenant (-1)
10. Far From the Madding Crowd (No Change)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-2)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Brooklyn. Out: The Hateful Eight.
Best Cinematography
The Revenant (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
The Hateful Eight (-1)
Sicario (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. Carol (+1)
8. The Assassin (Previously Unranked)
9. Son of Saul (-2)
DROPPED OFF: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Costume Design
The Danish Girl (+1)
Carol (-1)
Brooklyn (+1)
Cinderella (-1)
Far from the Madding Crowd (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
7. Suffragette (+3)
8. Trumbo (Previously Unranked)
9. The Revenant (No Change)
10. MacBeth (-2)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
12. Mad Max: Fury Road (-5)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Big Short (+5)
The Martian (+1)
The Revenant (-2)
Spotlight (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Jobs (-1)
7. Bridge of Spies (+1)
8. Room (+4)
9. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
10. Sicario (-4)
11. Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)
12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-2)
DROPPED OUT: Carol
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Big Short. Out: Steve Jobs.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Black Mass (+1)
The Revenant (-1)
Other Possibilities:
4. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (+2)
5. Concussion (-1)
6. Mr. Holmes (-1)
7. Legend (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Martian (+2)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
Sicario (+1)
The Revenant (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
7. Jurassic World (+1)
8. In the Heart of the Sea (-1)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+1)
The Revenant (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Sicario (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (+1)
7. In the Heart of the Sea (-2)
8. Jurassic World (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Sicario. Out: In the Heart of the Sea.
Best Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Jurassic World (+1)
The Martian (-1)
Ex Machina (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)
7. The Walk (No Change)
8. Avengers: Age of Ultron (Previously Unranked)
9. Everest (-1)
DROPPED OFF: The Revenant
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Original Score
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
The Danish Girl (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spotlight (No Change)
7. Steve Jobs (No Change)
8. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
DROPPED OFF: Inside Out, The Revenant
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Original Song
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (No Change)
“So Long” from Concussion (+1)
“See You Again” from Furious 7 (-1)
“Simple Song #3” from Youth (No Change)
“Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
7. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (-1)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: “Love Me Like You Do”. Out: “Earned It”.
These current predictions reflect the following breakdown of films getting these numbers:
9 Nominations
Mad Max Fury Road
8 Nominations
Carol, The Revenant
6 Nominations
Bridge of Spies, The Martian
5 Nominations
The Big Short, Brooklyn, The Danish Girl
4 Nominations
The Hateful Eight, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3 Nominations
Room. Sicario, Steve Jobs
2 Nominations
Ex Machina, Inside Out
1 Nomination
Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Cinderella, Concussion, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, Fifty Shades of Grey, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunting Ground, Joy, Jurassic World, Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet, Love and Mercy, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Trumbo, Youth
That’ll do it for now, folks! I’ll have my FINAL Oscar predictions up next week…
