The New York Film Festival has screened another high-profile Oscar contender and that would be Mike Mills’s 20th Century Women. The comedic drama set in the late 1970s was unveiled today to a lot of positive reviews and some that pointed out various flaws.
I’ve included Women on my list of 25 possible Best Picture nominees (as of yesterday it stood at #19). Based on the initial buzz, it could move up some slots next Thursday. Yet I would maintain that it’s unlikely at this juncture that it’ll be included among the five to ten eventual nominees. Same goes for Mills in the Director race.
The director’s last effort (Beginners) nabbed Christopher Plummer a Best Supporting Actor victroy. And it’s in the acting categories that this film has always seemed like a stronger contender and the New York screening has confirmed that. Ms. Bening has heard her name called for Academy recognition four times, but she’s never won. My latest predictions listed her as fourth for likelihood in receiving a Best Actress nod and that still seems right. Critics have praised her work here and she’s probably on her way to her fifth nomination. It still appears, however, that the trio of Emma Stone (La La Land), Natalie Portman (Jackie), and Viola Davis (Fences) have a firmer chance at actually winning.
Early notices have also pointed out the work of both Elle Fanning and Greta Gerwig. It’s unlikely that both will be nominated in Supporting Actress (though you never know). The edge currently goes to Gerwig. As for Crudup in Supporting Actor, he’s probably on the outside looking in, though it’s worth noting that Supporting Actor looks wide open at the moment. While Mills won’t see a Directing nod, Original Screenplay is possible (though there’s major competition there too).
Bottom line: The early buzz for 20th Century Women solidified the standing of Bening and Gerwig, with outside shots at other races.
It’s Thursday and that means I’m back at it with my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. So what’s transpired over the past seven days? Quite a bit! The Girl on the Train, which opens tomorrow, was screened with very mixed critical reaction. It had been at the lower end (#24 last week) of possible Best Picture nominees, but it now appears its chances have been completely derailed. Don’t expect it to appear on the list again. I do still have Emily Blunt as a long-shot Actress possibility, but Haley Bennett’s work in Supporting Actress and an Adapted Screenplay nomination have also fallen off.
We also got a trailer for Pablo Larrain’s Jackie, which could be a contender in several races. And we received official word that Ben Affleck’s Prohibition era crime pic Live by Night will be released in limited fashion in late December, qualifying it for the Academy’s consideration.
And there was the debut at the New York Film Festival of Ana DuVernay’s race relations documentary 13th. It’s important to note that no doc has been nominated for Best Picture, so it’s got a steep hill to climb. Yet it’s possible and joins the contenders of hopefuls this week.
*A final note before we get to predictions. It is my plan throughout October to keep with listing 25 Best Picture possibilities and 15 in the other races. By the first week of November, this will shift to 20 for Best Picture and ten in the others.
And with that, this week’s predictions:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 3)
4. Lion (PR: 5)
5. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
7. Moonlight (PR: 7)
8. Loving (PR: 8)
9. Jackie (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. Arrival (PR: 11)
12. Sully (PR: 12)
13. Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 13)
15. Hell or High Water (PR: 14)
16. 13th (PR: Not Ranked)
17. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 16)
18. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
19. 20th Century Women (PR: 18)
20. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
21. The Founder (PR: 22)
22. Gold (PR: 21)
23. Allied (PR: 23)
24. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
The Girl on the Train
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
3. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 9)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 6)
8. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 7)
9. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 8)
11. Ana DuVernay, 13th (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)
13. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 12)
15. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 12)
12. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 10)
13. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 13)
15. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 14)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
7. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 12)
9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
12. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 11)
14. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Rachel Weisz, Denial
Sally Field, My Name is Doris
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
5. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 5)
7. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 6)
8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 10)
9. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 14)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 8)
12. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 7)
13. Lucas Hedges, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 11)
14. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 13)
15. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Timothy Spall, Denial
Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 3)
4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
5. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
It’s my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories coming your way and there has been some news since last Thursday. It was officially confirmed that Martin Scorsese’s passion project Silence will be released in December in time for awards consideration (maybe we’ll finally get a trailer soon!). There were trailers released for some high-profile contenders: Denzel Washington’s Fences and Mike Mills’s 20th Century Women.
As we do every week, I’ll rank my top 25 contenders for Best Picture along with top 15 for the directing, acting, and screenplay races (you can also see the movement from the previous week’s ranking to now).
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 4)
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
5. Lion (PR: 7)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
7. Moonlight (PR: 6)
8. Loving (PR: 8)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Jackie (PR: 11)
11. Arrival (PR: 12)
12. Sully (PR: 13)
13. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
14. Hell or High Water (PR: 16)
15. Live by Night (PR: 14)
16. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 15)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 19)
18. 20th Century Women (PR: 17)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 21)
20. Passengers (PR: 25)
21. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
22. The Founder (PR: 22)
23. Allied (PR: 18)
24. The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 23)
Dropped Out:
Collateral Beauty
Hacksaw Ridge
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)
7. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)
8. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)
9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 11)
10. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)
11. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)
12. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)
13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)
14. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Robert Zemeckis, Allied
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 9)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)
10. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 12)
11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)
13. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 8)
14. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)
15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
11. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 12)
12. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 11)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)
14. Rachel Weisz, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Sally Field, My Name is Doris (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rooney Mara, Una
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 6)
7. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)
8. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
9. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 10)
10. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 11)
11. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 9)
12. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 13)
13. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 12)
14. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
4. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
5. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 7)
8. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 11)
10. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
11. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 9)
12. Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
13. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 10)
14. Sienna Miller, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty
Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation
Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. La Land Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Jackie (PR: 4)
5. Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
8. 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
9. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 13)
10. The Lobster (PR: 8)
11. Zootopia (PR: 11)
12. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)
13. Gold (PR: 12)
14. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Collateral Beauty
Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 3)
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
4. Lion (PR: 4)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Elle (PR: 11)
9. Sully (PR: 8)
10. Love & Friendship (PR: 12)
11. Indignation (PR: 13)
12. The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)
13. Live by Night (PR: 9)
14. The Jungle Book (PR: 15)
15. A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denial
And that’ll do it for the weekly Oscar predictions! Check back next week, folks…
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories are here for your reading pleasure!
The Toronto Film Festival has ferreted out some would-be contenders, most notably Ewan McGregor’s American Pastoral which debuted to lackluster reviews. I had it at #9 last week for a Best Picture and it’s nowhere to be seen in the Top 25 now.
As I’ll do every week, I’m listing 25 possibilities for Best Picture along with 15 for Director, the Acting Races, and the Screenplay categories. I’m also noting the movement in the rankings among the contenders and what and who has dropped out.
Let’s go to it:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1) La Land Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3) Silence (PR: 3)
4) Fences (PR: 4)
5) Moonlight (PR: 5)
6) Loving (PR: 6)
7) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)
8) Lion (PR: 11)
9) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10) Arrival (PR: 13)
11) Hidden Figures (PR: 15)
12) Jackie (PR: 12)
13) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)
14) Sully (PR: 16)
15) Hell or High Water (PR: 18)
16) 20th Century Women (PR: 14)
17) Allied (PR: 19)
18) Passengers (PR: 17)
19) Live by Night (PR: 25)
20) The Founder (PR: 21)
21) The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
22) Collateral Beauty (PR: 23)
23) Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
24) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
25) The Jungle Book (PR: 22)
DROPPED OUT:
American Pastoral, Moana, Gold
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3) Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
4) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 5)
5) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
7) Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)
8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)
9) Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)
10) Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 11)
11) Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 14)
12) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 13)
13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)
14) Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
15) Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)
2) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
3) Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
4) Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 6)
5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6) Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 8)
7) Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 9)
8) Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 4)
9) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
10) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)
11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield (PR: 11)
12) Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)
13) Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
14) Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)
15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2) Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)
3) Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 2)
4) Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)
8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
9) Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)
10) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)
11) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 14)
12) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
13) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 12)
14) Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 10)
15) Sally Hawkins, Maudie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
2) Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)
4) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 1)
5) Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6) Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 14)
7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
8) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
9) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 15)
10) Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)
11) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
12) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked in Supporting)
13) Billy Nighy, Their Finest (PR: Not Ranked)
14) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)
15) Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women
Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
John Legend, La La Land
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
4) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
5) Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
7) Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
8) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
9) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 5)
10) Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 14)
11) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 8)
12) Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: Not Ranked)
13) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
14) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 11)
15) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (13)
Dropped Out:
Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral
Laura Dern, The Founder
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) La La Land (PR: 3)
2) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
3) Moonlight (PR: 2)
4) Loving (PR: 4)
5) Jackie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6) 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
7) Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
8) The Lobster (PR: 8)
9) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)
10) Zootopia (PR: 11)
11) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
12) Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 14)
13) Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
14) Passengers (PR: 13)
15) Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Founder
Gold
Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Fences (PR: 1)
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
4) Silence (PR: 4)
5) Lion (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6) Arrival (PR: 8)
7) Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
8) Sully (PR: 12)
9) The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)
10) Elle (PR: 11)
11) Love & Friendship (PR: 9)
12) Live by Night (PR: 13)
13) Denial (PR: 14)
14) The Jungle Book (PR: 15)
15) Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
American Pastoral
And there you have it, Oscar watchers! I’ll be back with my weekly predictions on September 22nd…
As readers of my blog may have seen last week, I made my first initial round of Oscar predictions last week. Now… we move onto the next phase. Every Thursday, I will be giving my weekly updated Oscar predictions in the following categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay.
When we get into the later part of the year, the list will expand to include other categories. Each Thursday, I will list 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 possibilities for the other races and you’ll be able to track whether the picks go up or down on a weekly basis.
Please note that if I rank something #1 in a certain race, it doesn’t mean I think it’ll win. It means I think its nomination is currently the most probable. The film festival season (especially Toronto) can and probably will alter some of these picks even next week.
Let’s get right to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1) La Land Land
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Silence
4) Fences
5) Moonlight
6) Loving
7) Manchester by the Sea
8) Nocturnal Animals
9) American Pastoral
Other Possibilities:
10) The Birth of a Nation
11) Lion
12) Jackie
13) Arrival
14) 20th Century Women
15) Hidden Figures
16) Sully
17) Passengers
18) Hell or High Water
19) Allied
20) Moana
21) The Founder
22) The Jungle Bok
23) Collateral Beauty
24) Gold
25) Live by Night
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Martin Scorsese, Silence
4) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
5) Denzel Washington, Fences
Other Possibilities:
6) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
7) Jeff Nichols, Loving
8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
9) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
10) Denis Villenueve, Arrival
11) Garth Davis, Lion
12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
13) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
14) Pablo Larrain, Jackie
15) Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Denzel Washington, Fences
2) Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
3) Joel Edgerton, Loving
4) Michael Keaton, The Founder
5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Other Possibilities:
6) Tom Hanks, Sully
7) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
8) Ryan Gosling, La La Land
9) Dev Patel, Lion
10) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield
12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
14) Andrew Garfield, Silence
15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Emma Stone, La La Land
2) Viola Davis, Fences
3) Natalie Portman, Jackie
4) Ruth Negga, Loving
5) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Other Possibilities:
6) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals
7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle
8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
9) Amy Adams, Arrival
10) Rooney Mara, Una
11) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
12) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers
13) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
14) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
15) Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
2) Liam Neeson, Silence
3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
4) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
5) Stephen Henderson, Fences
Other Possibilities:
6) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
8) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This
9) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
10) Timothy Spall, Denial
11) Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women
12) Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
13) John Legend, La La Land
14) Aaron Eckhart, Sully
15) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight
3) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals
4) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold
Other Possibilities:
6) Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral
7) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
8) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation
9) Nicole Kidman, Lion
10) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
11) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan
12) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women
13) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty
14) Margo Martindale, The Hollars
15) Laura Dern, The Founder
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Manchester by the Sea
2) Moonlight
3) La La Land
4) Loving
5) Jackie
Other Possibilities:
6) 20th Century Women
7) Hell or High Water
8) The Lobster
9) The Birth of a Nation
10) The Founder
11) Zootopia
12) Gold
13) Passengers
14) Rules Don’t Apply
15) Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Fences
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Nocturnal Animals
4) Silence
5) American Pastoral
Other Possibilities:
6) Lion
7) Hidden Figures
8) Arrival
9) Love & Friendship
10) The Girl on the Train
11) Elle
12) Sully
13) Live by Night
14) Denial
15) The Jungle Book
And that’ll do it for now, folks! My weekly updates will be back next Thursday…
The summer movie season has wound to a close and we can feel the autumn season just around the corner. That means football, leaves changing, and back to school. It also means the 2016 fall movie season is about to begin and that means – early Oscar speculation!!
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, it may seem a bit too early for that, but it isn’t. The film festival season will be starting before we know it with Venice, Toronto, Telluride and New York on deck. A host of Oscar hopefuls will receive their first screenings and generate their first buzz. So this week – as I have in years past – I roll out my first round of Oscar predictions. This will be done in six installments beginning with Supporting Actress today and continuing daily with Supporting Actor, Actress, Actor, Director, and the big dog – Picture. Each post will predict the five nominees (or in the case of Picture – five to ten). As the week wear on, I’ll be increasing my predictions to a weekly feature on the blog.
For Supporting Actress, let’s take a little trip down memory lane with my predictions in 2014 and 2015. Two years back, my earliest predictions yielded two out of the eventual five nominated performers (including winner Patricia Arquette for Boyhood). Last year, these initial predictions gave us three of the five and, in a way, four. At the time, there was uncertainty as to whether Alicia Vikander would be campaigned for in lead or supporting for The Danish Girl and I predicted her at the time for Actress. The campaign went with supporting and she was the winner. Let’s get to it!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
At this juncture, I’d say there’s no shoo-in nominees but Michelle Williams in this fall’s Manchester by the Sea is about as close as it gets. The pic has already screened at festivals to raves with many critics singling out her work.
Ang Lee’s November war drama Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk looks to be a player in many categories and that could certainly trickle down to Kristen Stewart. The trailer for Moonlight seems to indicate a very meaty and Oscar-baity type role for Naomie Harris. There are questions surrounding how many nominations the acclaimed slavery pic The Birth of a Nation will receive (more on that in future posts), but Aja Naomi King has gotten acclaim for her role already.
As for a fifth, I’m just going to go with a total and complete wild card: Bryce Dallas Howard in December’s Gold, which not much is known about at the moment (no trailer even). Why? Well, this category is quite unformed at the moment, so why not? If it pans out, I’ll look really smart!
There’s a slew of others as possibilities, including multiple possibilities for 20th Century Women, American Pastoral and The Girl on the Train (with both Fanning sisters no less) and we shall see how it plays out in the coming weeks and months. For now…
TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Focus Features tries to get some animation movie dollars with The Boxtrolls, out Friday. The 3D comedic fantasy features the voices of Ben Kingsley, Elle Fanning, Toni Collette, Simon Pegg, Nick Frost, and Tracy Morgan.
The Boxtrolls will attempt to bring in family audiences and there is certainly a market out there with Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles having made the vast bulk of their money. However, some of its target audience may look at this as a B team offering. Reviews are sturdy with 71% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time. The absence of similar genre titles could lead to this to a debut above $20 million, but I’m skeptical. I’ll predict it manages an opening in the mid to high teens for a respectable but unspectacular debut.
The Boxtrolls opening weekend prediction: $17.2 million
This coming Friday, Disney brings us Maleficent, a live-action pic focusing on the well-known villainess from Sleeping Beauty. In the title role is Angelina Jolie, who will aim for (and most likely get) her highest live-action debut of all time.
Costarring Elle Fanning and Sharlto Copley, we’ve seen this type of film work at the box office before when Snow White and the Huntsman got off to a $56.2 million start just two summers ago. With an estimated budget of $180 million, Disney clearly believes it has a winner on their hands and they’re probably right. Maleficent should succeed in bringing in kid viewers as well as an impressive female audience.
Jolie’s current largest opening is Wanted from 2008, which made $50.9M in its debut. As I see it, Maleficent should certainly top that number. I feel it will also surpass Snow White‘s gross from 2012. The marketing campaign has been strong and I’m predicting an initial gross in the mid-60s makes a lot of sense.
Maleficent opening weekend prediction: $66.2 million
For my A Million Ways to Die in the West prediction, click here:
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