Oscar Predictions: By Any Means

Out this Labor Day weekend and not expected to make much of a box office splash is the historical crime drama By Any Means. It has quiet word-of-mouth and seems generic enough that I called it By All Means in my box office prediction post for it. Two or three days passed before I realized I had the wrong title. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Mark Wahlberg, Nicole Beharie, Josh Lucas, David Strathairn, and Giancarlo Esposito are among cast members.

To be fair, the reviews aren’t bad with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes and 56 on Metacritic. And perhaps it’ll bring in a larger than expected adult crowd over the holiday weekend. However, this was never seen as an awards player. That is… until a few days ago.

Enter Diane Warren. Oscar pundits know the name well. The prolific songwriter has been nominated 17 times for her original songs without a victory to show for it. That’s the most at bats without a home run. The Academy did give her an honorary statue in 2022. It was announced that Warren is behind the title track for Any, performed by the Isley Brothers and David Kushner. Warren currently stands at nine nominated tracks in a row dating back to 2017. Simply put, history indicates “By Any Means” could by all means become the 10th in succession. Once again, a win could be elusive. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

By Any Means Box Office Prediction

Yahya Abdul-Mateen II is an FBI agent teaming up with Mark Wahlberg’s former mobster turned informant in the 1960s set crime thriller By Any Means, which opens over Labor Day weekend. Elegance Bratton directs with a supporting cast including Nicole Beharie, Giancarlo Esposito, Josh Lucas, and David Strathairn.

This end of summer holiday frame usually isn’t a fruitful one for newcomers and I’m doubtful this Paramount release will break out. Wahlberg has mostly been seen on the streaming premiere circuit as of late and viewers may simply wait until Paramount+ to check it out. The studio should consider it a plus if it tops $10 million over the four-day frame and I’ll say it doesn’t happen.

By Any Means opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

Oscar Predictions: The Inspection

Basing his directorial debut on his own experiences, Elegance Bratton has premiered The Inspection at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its November 18th domestic release. The A24 title features Jeremy Pope as a Marine at boot camp whose homosexuality is revealed. Costars include Raul Castillo, McCaul Lombardi, Bokeem Woodbine, and Gabrielle Union.

Reviews out of Canada are looking good for the most part and the Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 87%. Yet I’m doubtful this could play in Best Picture or for Bratton’s original screenplay. On the other hand, many critics are calling this a star making performance from Pope. He’s a recent Emmy nominee for the Netflix miniseries Hollywood (he’s also received Tony and Grammy nods for his stage work).

The studio will need to really push Pope for any hope of making the final five. Some of the those slots – Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Hugh Jackman (The Son) – may already be spoken for. It remains The Inspection‘s most realistic hope. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…