Tag: Edward Norton

97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 3rd Edition

You can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but you can alter your Oscar Predictions and such is the case with Nightbitch. For many weeks, I’ve had Amy Adams perched atop my Best Actress list. The six-time nominee has to get the gold sometime right? After today’s first look, I don’t think this is the vehicle. Perhaps the Toronto Film Festival (where this screens in days) will prove me wrong.

Speaking of festivals, you might have heard that Telluride just concluded as Venice is at its midpoint. As both events tend to do, the awards landscape has been altered due to their premieres. Some pics and performers have risen while others have fallen.

The biggest winner at the time of this publication seems to be Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice. The three hour plus Holocaust survivor drama vaults 20 spots from #23 to #3 in my Best Picture rankings with Corbet in for his direction and Adrien Brody returning to the Actor derby. Mr. Brody knocks out Sebastian Stan in A Different Man. Speaking of Stan, he will also be vying for attention as Donald Trump in The Apprentice. It was confirmed this week that it will be released in October.

Another benefactor, this one from Telluride, is Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night. The solid reaction in Colorado puts it (barely) in my BP hopefuls along with Original Screenplay and Film Editing recognition.

The inclusion of these two newbies knocks out two others that didn’t fare quite as well in their unveilings – Queer and The Piano Lesson. They are both still listed in Other Possibilities but are no longer picks to make the big dance.

Three of the four acting races have new #1s. While Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) is still first in Actor (with Ralph Fiennes from Conclave and Adrien Brody hot on his heels), the aforementioned Adams plummets in Actress. In her place? Mikey Madison from Anora though Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Karla Sofia Gascón are close behind. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) makes her first appearance in the quintet. Please note that Folie will screen in Venice tomorrow so we’ll know more then (keep an eye on the blog for its individual predictions post).

In Supporting Actress, my previous #1 Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) slides three positions with Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) moving up. Her costar Selena Gomez is now in my five as well and that takes out Tilda Swinton in The Room Next Door. I will say deciding between Gomez and Swinton for the 5 spot was basically a coin flip.

The news for Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) and his chances are worse. He goes from 1st to 9th with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) back at one. Guy Pearce in The Brutalist, who would be a first-time nominee, rockets from 15th to 2nd in the race and Stanley Tucci (Conclave) reenters over his costar John Lithgow.

You can read all the movement – and there is plenty of movement indeed – below and my next update will likely come Sunday as more Venice titles screen and Toronto begins!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 23) (+20)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (+2)

12. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (+8)

13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Queer (PR: 7) (-7)

15. The Room Next Door (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Gladiator II (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (-2)

18. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-9)

19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+3)

20. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-6)

21. Wicked (PR: 21) (E)

22. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

23. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

24. Maria (PR: 18) (-6)

25. A Different Man (PR: 24) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Hard Truths

The End

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)

9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-6)

14. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (-6)

8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-2)

13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 11) (+8)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (-3)

9. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Paul Mescal. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-7)

14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 13) (E)

14. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Valeria Golino, Maria

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 15) (+13)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (-8)

10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

11. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 9) (-5)

15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 3) (-12)

Dropped Out:

Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 14) (+9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

11. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

12. The Substance (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Challengers (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The End

Maria

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Queer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Hit Man (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (-1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (E)

13. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (-2)

7. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Universal Language (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Evil Does Not Exist

Simon of the Mountain

Uprising

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)

5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Savages (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7 (E)

8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Orion and the Dark (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Most Precious of Cargoes

Transformers One

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+1)

4. No Other Land (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 3) (-3)

7. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Union

Gaucho Gaucho

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Anora (PR: 8) (E)

9. Queer (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Conclave

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Challengers (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

A Complete Unknown

Queer

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maria (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Sasquatch Sunset

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Challengers (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

Here

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 8) (+2)

7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Wicked

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Conclave (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Queer

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+2)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (E)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

A Quiet Place: Day One

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Twisters (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 6) (-4)

And that works out to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Blitz

8 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

The Brutalist

6 Nominations

Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Conclave

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, Saturday Night

2 Nominations

Maria, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Black Box Diaries, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

97th Academy Awards Predictions: August 20th Edition

In eights days, the Venice Film Festival will get underway followed the next day by Telluride and followed by Toronto the following week. The trio of events, as they always do, kick off a flurry of awards activity and dozens of Oscar Prediction posts on this blog. The fests in Italy, Colorado, and Canada will make the picture for the 97th Academy Awards considerably clearer.

As you peruse the titles listed below, here are just some which will debut at one or more of the festivals: Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The End, Maria, Nightbitch, Babygirl, The Room Next Door, I’m Still Here, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Brutalist, The Fire Inside, Hard Truths, We Live in Time, The Wild Robot, Piece by Piece, and The Last Showgirl.

The plan is for my next update to arrive on Labor Day. By that time, quite a few of these titles will already have eyeballs on them and reviews will be written. Consider this the penultimate forecast before it gets really real.

This update comes with a pair of changes in the supporting fields. In Supporting Actress, Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) enters my quintet with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) dropping out. Speaking of Conclave, John Lithgow is now in my Supporting Actor five over his costar Stanley Tucci.

You can peruse all the movement below as festival season is nearly upon us!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (E)

12. Saturday Night (PR: 18) (+6)

13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 12) (-3)

16. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-2)

17. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (-1)

18. Maria (PR: 17) (-1)

19. The End (PR: 20) (+1)

20. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (-1)

21. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 24) (+2)

23. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

24. A Different Man (PR: 21) (-3)

25. Hard Truths (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Fire Inside

Here

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

Marielle Heller, Nightbitch

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (E)

12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Zendaya, Challengers

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothèe Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tom Hanks, Here

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Selena Gomez, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (E)

12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Glenn Close, The Deliverance

Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (E)

15. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Raci, Sing Sing

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The End (PR: 9) (+1)

9. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Dídi (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Maria (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Challengers (PR: 12) (E)

13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

A Different Man

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12 (E)

13. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 13) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

3. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Caught by the Tides (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)

9. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Uprising (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Kneecap

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Land (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (E)

8. Union (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR 4) (E)

5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anora (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Complete Unknown

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Challengers (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maria (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nightbitch

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Queer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Challengers (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

The Piano Lesson

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Wicked (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (-1)

7. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Queer (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Maria

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

9. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Emilia Pérez

Twisters

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)

8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wicked (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Mufasa: The Lion King

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Blitz

8 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

6 Nominations

Gladiator II, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked

2 Nominations

A Different Man, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, Challengers, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, The Outrun, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

97th Academy Awards Predictions: August 5th Edition

Is Saturday Night alright for Oscar? Jason Reitman’s latest picture chronicles the premiere of SNL back in 1975. The surprise announcement this week is that it has wrapped production and will hit theaters on October 11th. That’s exactly 49 years after the iconic NBC sketch show debuted.

One week after the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown joined the 2024 calendar, Saturday will try to get into the Academy mix. The most likely categories for the Sony release are significant ones – Picture, Director, and especially Original Screenplay. The cast also presents some possibilities like Gabriel LaBelle (from The Fabelmans) as Lorne Michaels. I’m assuming he’d be campaigned for in lead Actor though nothing is confirmed. In Supporting Actress, let’s see if Rachel Sennott as writer Rosie Shuster and Ella Hunt as legendary cast member Gilda Radner get in the convo.

I am not elevating Saturday Night into my predictions for any race yet, but you’ll see it in the possibilities section.

The Piano Lesson gets a boost this week as it is back in BP over The Seed of the Sacred Fig. Piano‘s Samuel L. Jackson also returns to #1 in Supporting Actor with his costar Danielle Deadwyler back in the quintet for Supporting Actress. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) drops.

Mohammad Rasolouf in Director also falls out for Seed in favor of Anora‘s Sean Baker. Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door shifts from Original to Adapted Screenplay and makes my cut with Dune: Part Two on the outside looking in.

I’ll also note that Conclave is now 2nd in my projections for total nominations (9) behind Dune‘s 10.

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

6. Anora (PR: 6) (E)

7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Room Next Door (PR: 19) (+4)

16. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (-2)

17. Maria (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

19. A Real Pain (PR: 22) (+3)

20. The End (PR: 16) (-4)

21. A Different Man (PR: 23) (+2)

22. Hard Truths (PR: 20) (-2)

23. The Fire Inside (PR: 21) (-2)

24. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Here (PR: 24) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Wicked

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+6)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

11. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)

11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)

14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)

15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Andrè Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)

13. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 13) (E)

14. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: 12) (E)

13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (E)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kathy Burke, Blitz

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (+1)

10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Paul Raci, Sing Sing (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)

4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

9. The End (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Challengers (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)

14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Room Next Door (moved to Adapted Screenplay)

All We Imagine as Light

I Saw the TV Glow

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

Other Possibilities:

6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Nightbitch (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Hit Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Here

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emila Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

3. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Uprising (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Simon of the Mountain

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Flow (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Orion and the Dark

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)

4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)

9. Union (PR: 9) (E)

10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Frida

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Queer (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anora (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Maria

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Blitz (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Different Man (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Conclave (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Blitz (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Challengers (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Here

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+3)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 10) (+3)

8. TBD from Wicked (PR: 3) (-5)

9. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (E)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Twisters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Wicked (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)

8. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

That equates to these movies nabbing these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Conclave

8 Nominations

Blitz, Emilia Pérez

5 Nominations

Anora, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Sing Sing

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked

2 Nominations

A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, Piece by Piece, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

97th Academy Awards Predictions: July 29th Edition

The unexpected announcement that James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is releasing in 2024 shakes up my predictions. I have it being nominated in four races. That would include Best Picture (where it replaces The Piano Lesson) and Timothèe Chalamet in Actor as he vaults over The Piano Lesson‘s John David Washington. It was not a great week for Piano as I now have it being solely nominated for Samuel L. Jackson in Supporting Actor. Yet even he drops to second in favor of Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing.

The news is not all positive for that movie. As I hinted at last week, Sing Sing was a very soft frontrunner in BP and A24’s release strategy has been curious. Therefore I am elevating Steve McQueen’s Blitz back to first position with its director atop that category over Dune‘s Denis Villeneuve. Colman Domingo is still in my lead for Actor.

There are two alterations in the supporting fields with Isabella Rossellini returning to Supporting Actress over… you guessed it… Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) returns to my anticipated quintet in Supporting Actor in place of Adam Pearson from A Different Man.

The Venice and Toronto festivals have announced the bulk of their lineups for late August into September. There has also been screening news for New York and London and we have a general idea of some pics likely to play Telluride. The lack of certain titles at those events have caused me to drop some hopefuls. This include The Apprentice, The Collaboration, and Long Day’s Journey Into Night. Should they be confirmed for the 2024 calendar, I’ll obviously readjust.

A quick note on Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door. It appears that Julianne Moore is more likely to be in lead Actress with Tilda Swinton in supporting. I’ve made that change though I’ve yet to put either of the past winners in my final five picks.

Of course, this is all completely unknown at press time but you can peruse all my best guesswork below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

6. Anora (PR: 6) (E)

7. Queer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (-1)

16. The End (PR: 19) (+3)

17. Maria (PR: 18) (+1)

18. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

19. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (-2)

20. Hard Truths (PR: 22) (+2)

21. The Fire Inside (PR: 20) (-1)

22. A Real Pain (PR: 15) (-7)

23. A Different Man (PR: 21) (-2)

24. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Wicked (PR: 24) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Apprentice

Dídi

His Three Daughters

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 6) (E)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

9. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

10. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (E)

15. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Marianne-Jean Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 12) (+1)

12. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door – moved to supporting

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+2)

7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-3)

8. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)

13. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door – moved to lead

Erin Kellyman, Blitz

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 5) (-2)

8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Elliot Heffernan, Blitz

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hard Truths (PR:5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

9. The End (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Challengers (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-3)

14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 12) (-2)

15. I Saw the TV Glow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Apprentice

A Different Man

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Queer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Hit Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Inside Out 2 (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-3)

13. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

14. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (E)

15. Here (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Collaboration

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

3. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Caught by the Tides (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Uprising (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kneecap (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Emmanuelle

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Flow (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Savages (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Transformers One (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Most Precious of Cargoes

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)

4. No Other Land (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)

9. Union (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frida (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anora (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Conclave (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Maria (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Queer (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Blitz (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Megalopolis

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Different Man (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Queer (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Blitz (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Conclave (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Challengers (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Here (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (+1)

3. TBD from Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-4)

7. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

“Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Maria (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (E)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Twisters (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Sing Sing

Civil War

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Here (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Twisters (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mufasa: The Lion King

And that shakes out to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Blitz

7 Nominations

Conclave, Emilia Pérez

5 Nominations

Anora, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sing Sing

4 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Nosferatu, Queer

3 Nominations

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

2 Nominations

A Different Man, A Real Pain, Wicked

1 Nomination

All We Imagine as Light, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

Will the Bob Dylan Movie Electrify Oscar Voters?

The past few days for awards prognosticators like me have been eventful as the Venice and Toronto Film Festival have unveiled their lineups. Many of the expected 2024 heavy hitters have confirmed their premieres up north and across the ocean. That includes Conclave, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, The End, Hard Truths, and The Room Next Door to name a few. The NY Festival features Nickel Boys as its debut screening while Blitz will play London.

None of that information is particularly surprising. There was a rather unexpected development today courtesy of Fox Searchlight. The studio premiered the first look at their Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown and announced a release date of December. Directed by James Mangold, Timothée Chalamet stars as the legendary folk singer and the Dune/Wonka actor does his own crooning that you can hear in the trailer.

So will the picture be a golden ticket for Oscar attention? The December drop would indicate that Fox thinks so. Mangold is no stranger to this genre as he made 2005’s Walk the Line with Joaquin Phoenix as Johnny Cash. He was nominated for Best Actor while Reese Witherspoon won Actress as June Carter Cash. Chalamet has been killing it lately at the box office, but his sole Academy nom was for 2017’s Call Me by Your Name (losing to Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour). This is obviously a high profile turn and he joins an Actor competition that is quite unclear. Only one thing seems certain(ish) and that’s Colman Domingo making the final five for the acclaimed Sing Sing. Since I started my forecasts in May, there’s been two other performers I’ve had slotted in the quintet: Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) and Daniel Craig (Queer). We’ll know soon enough if they are legit contenders. The other two spots have fluctuated between hopefuls like Sebastian Stan (for either The Apprentice or A Different Man), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), and Glen Powell (Hit Man). And we can’t discount Mr. Phoenix for his second stint as Joker.

I do suspect that Chalamet will materialize in my top 5 for recognition when I update my predictions in the coming days. Where else could Unknown get in? Well, there’s Best Picture and Mangold’s direction. Walk the Line missed the cut for BP nearly 20 years ago. If there were 10 nominees back then like there is now, it probably would’ve gotten in. Mangold is a well-respected filmmaker with varied works including Cop Land, Girl, Interrupted, Logan, and Ford v Ferrari. While his co-scripting of Logan gave him an Adapted Screenplay nomination, he’s never received a directing mention.

Walk the Line did nab three other noms for Costume Design, Film Editing, and Sound Mixing. All three of those (though Sound is now just Sound since it combined Sound Mixing and Sound Editing) could be Unknown inclusions. Adapted Screenplay is also a possibility.

As for the rest of the cast, we simply don’t know if Edward Norton as Pete Seeger, Elle Fanning as Sylvie Russo, or Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez are substantial enough for supporting recognitions. I would anticipate at least Fanning being listed as a possibility in my next update.

Fox Searchlight also has Nightbitch and A Real Pain as awards bait releases. The former is mostly being discussed for Amy Adams and an Actress nod (where I currently have her ranked #1). The latter is seen as a vehicle for a Kieran Culkin Supporting Actor try (where I have him ranked fourth). Both could be in the BP mix. However, on paper, A Complete Unknown might be Fox’s most electrifying prospect. This is, of course, a complete unknown until it screens. We do now that it’ll be in this cycle.

Asteroid City Review

Wes Anderson’s mix of melancholia and quirky humor is abundant in Asteroid City with its massive cast and dueling aspect ratios. This is a stunning looking feature focused on the behind the scenes made for TV airing of a play (shot in black & white). The play itself is presented via Technicolor hues in a Western desert setting in the 1950s. Whether it’s the characters they’re playing or the actors and directors themselves, they exist in Anderson’s wheelhouse of themes. From dealing with grief to unlikely romances and coming-of-age under unique circumstances, any filmmaker would be rightly accused of ripping off Anderson if this weren’t made by him. Whether it works will depend on how into him you are. I’m not a die-hard though his signature style popped for me in The Royal Tenenbaums, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and more. It can also leave me cold. That happened in portions of his previous effort The French Dispatch while other segments were more successful. This City was lukewarm.

The play we see (which takes up the bulk of screen time) happens in the sleepy title dwelling awoken by a youth astronomy convention. One of the top outcasts competing is Woodrow (Jake Ryan), the movie’s Max Fischer from Rushmore but nicer. His father is war photojournalist Augie and he’s played by Jason Schwartzman, who played Max in Anderson’s acclaimed dramedy from 1998. He’s recently widowed and (in a gag that works throughout) hasn’t figured out how to tell his son and three young daughters who might be witches that mom has passed. Tom Hanks is his wealthy father-in-law who lives on a golf course and reluctantly is teeing up accommodations for the family.

Another competitor is Dinah, daughter of Midge (Scarlett Johansson), a sullen movie star who assumes her fate will be similar to ingenues like Marilyn Monroe. She engages in a fireworks free tryst with Augie while Woodrow develops a crush on Dinah.

We’ve seen plenty of all-star casts in his oeuvre, but Anderson outdoes himself in Asteroid City. From Steve Carell’s motel manager to Matt Dillon’s auto mechanic or Tilda Swinton’s scientist and Rupert Friend’s singing cowboy who’s sweet on Maya Hawke’s teacher, the cast is a loaded group. Some are practically blink and you’ll miss them appearances – hey there’s Jeff Goldblum! And Hong Chau! Jeffrey Wright, who gave a segment stealing performance in The French Dispatch, has a highlight scene as a General judging the convention.

Without going into spoiler territory, the plot eventually employs sci-fi elements in an idiosyncratic Wes way. While this is happening, we get monochrome interludes with Bryan Cranston’s host introducing and commenting on the teleplay, Edward Norton as its writer, and Adrien Brody as the randy director. These are great performers, but the best moments come in Asteroid City. The backstage business of meeting the performers counterparts didn’t have a deep impact with me.

Neither did Asteroid City as a whole. Schwartzman and Johansson (who really sells her considerable star magnetism) have a couple memorable scenes of courtship. The technical work, particularly the production design, is impeccable. Yet the emotional and comedic payoff that has worked in Tenenbaums and beyond feels more remote in this bright wasteland.

**1/2 (out of four)

Asteroid City Box Office Prediction

After premiering to mixed reactions at the Cannes Film Festival last month, Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City expands nationwide on June 23rd. The auteur’s distinctive mix of dry humor and drama looks to be in high supply and same goes for his impressive sprawling cast. This time around it includes plenty of Anderson regulars and some newbies. The list boasts Jason Schwartzman, Scarlett Johansson, Tom Hanks, Jeffrey Wright, Tilda Swinton, Bryan Cranston, Edward Norton, Adrien Brody, Liev Schreiber, Hope Davis, Steve Park, Rupert Friend, Maya Hawke, Steve Carell, Matt Dillon, Hong Chau, Willem Dafoe, Margot Robbie, Tony Revolori, and Jeff Goldblum.

With a 74% Rotten Tomatoes rating, this is far from the peak of critical acclaim for the filmmaker. I doubt this approaches the $59 million domestic gross that 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel made in 2014 (his best earner). Yet this should eclipse predecessor The French Dispatch from October 2021. It took in just $16 million (this was also during theatrical COVID challenges).

City rolls out June 16th in six venues. I imagine it’ll have one of the biggest per theater averages of 2023. That doesn’t necessarily translate to impressive numbers when it expands between the coasts a week later. I’m skeptical that it manages $10 million.

Asteroid City opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million

For my No Hard Feelings prediction, click here:

No Hard Feelings Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Asteroid City

Wes Anderson is no stranger to Cannes or Oscar nominations as Focus Features hopes the debut of Asteroid City at the former leads to the latter. A mix of comedy, drama, romance, and sci-fi, it features the auteur’s typical sprawling cast (many of whom have worked with him on multiple occasions). This includes (deep breath) Jason Schwartzman, Scarlett Johansson, Tom Hanks, Jeffrey Wright, Tilda Swinton, Bryan Cranston, Edward Norton, Adrien Brody, Liev Schreiber, Hope Davis, Stephen Park, Rupert Friend, Maya Hawke, Steve Carell, Matt Dillon, Hong Chau, Willem Dafoe, Margot Robbie, Tony Revolori, and Jeff Goldblum. Exhale.

Out stateside on June 23rd, City premiered in the south of France just like Anderson’s Moonrise Kingdom and The French Dispatch. Four of his last five works have generated the Academy’s attention. 2009’s Fantastic Mr. Fox was up for Animated Feature and Original Score (from frequent collaborator Alexandre Desplat). 2012’s Kingdom was in the Original Screenplay derby (with Anderson’s cowriter Roman Coppola). Two years later, The Grand Budapest Hotel was the massive awards breakthrough with nine Oscar nods and four victories in Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, and Production Design. It is Anderson’s sole BP nominee. 2018’s Isle of Dogs nabbed Animated Feature and Score mentions. In 2021, I had The French Dispatch predicted for Score and Production Design. It was surprisingly blanked on the morning of nominations.

Critics indicate this is an Anderson effort through and through and most reviews are of the thumbs up variety. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 84%. Like Dispatch and pics before it, Score (by Desplat of course) and Production Design are possibilities. So is the screenplay from Anderson and Coppola. Yet the overseas reaction is not to the level of Hotel and City could come up short like Dispatch did. A Best Picture nod probably won’t occur though perhaps the Golden Globes could slot it in Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy).

Finally, despite the sheer volume of familiar faces appearing in his filmography, no actors have received recognition in one of Anderson’s pics from the Academy. Bill Murray in Rushmore and Gene Hackman in The Royal Tenenbaums likely came close. I do not anticipate that streak being broken here. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2022: The Year of Hong Chau

My Year Of posts focused on six performers who gave audiences a memorable 2022 culminates with what I’ll consider the Utility Player prize. This goes to a character actor who improves the viewing experience of the projects they’re in. We could coin it the Patricia Clarkson or J.T. Walsh Award.

This year, I’m giving it to Hong Chau. Five years ago, she received Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations for her supporting part in Alexander Payne’s Downsizing. An Oscar nod was expected to follow, but didn’t materialize.

In the half decade since, she’s been seen more in small screen material. That changed in ’22 with two critically heralded roles in Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale and Mark Mylod’s The Menu. For the former, her Liz (caretaker and confidant to Brendan Fraser’s lead) could mark Chau’s first Academy recognition. For the latter, her Elsa (second in command to the sadistic chef played by Ralph Fiennes) was a highlight in a terrific cast.

At the Cannes Film Festival in May, another Chau performance received acclaim. Kelly Reichardt’s Showing Up features her with Michelle Williams in a dramedy that sports a 95% Rotten Tomatoes score. It’ll be released stateside in 2023. So will Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City where she’ll be part of his typical impressive ensemble that includes Tom Hanks, Tilda Swinton, Margot Robbie, Edward Norton, and many more. Chau is also cast in Yorgos Lanthimos’s And with Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons, Willem Dafoe, and Margaret Qualley.

Among all those well-known filmmakers and stars, Chau stands out and earns a final slot in the Year Of write-ups.

Oscar Predictions – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

The critics certainly don’t have their knives out for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. This is the eagerly awaited follow-up to Rian Johnson’s 2019 comedic murder mystery which grossed over $300 million worldwide and gave Daniel Craig another franchise. Johnson and Craig are back with a new supporting cast that includes Edward Norton, Janelle Monae, Kathryn Hahn, Leslie Odom Jr., Jessicas Henwick, Madelyn Cline, Kate Hudson, and Dave Bautista.

Slated for select cinemas in November before a December 23rd Netflix bow, Onion has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival with reviews saying it’s quite appealing. Some even claim it improves on the original. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.

Three years ago, Knives had a sliver of hope to nab a Best Picture nomination, but it never materialized. An Original Screenplay mention was the reward for its success. This time around, it would contend in Adapted Screenplay since it’s based on existing IP. That could happen though let’s see how competitive that race is over the remainder of the year. I suspect if we see a sequel nominated for Best Picture in 2022, it’ll be Top Gun: Maverick and not this… and we still don’t know how solid Avatar: The Way of Water is. As for performances, Monae is being singled out in several write-ups as the MVP. However, Supporting Actress is already starting to looked stacked.

Where Onion could sizzle is at the Golden Globes with a Musical/Comedy Best Motion Picture nod and Best Actor in that category for Craig. That occurred in 2019 and could happen again. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…