Tag: Ed Harris

2023 Oscar Predictions: June 14th Edition

My mid-June look at the major races for the 96th Academy Awards adds the screenplay competitions to the mix. In them, my top picks for Best Picture (Killers of the Flower Moon and Past Lives) lead their respective writing categories.

Truth be told, we’re in a bit of a lull for significant awards buzz. The Cannes Film Festival is over and the key fall fests (Toronto, Venice, Telluride) are nearly three months out.

In July, we will have two potential heavyweights unveiled in Oppenheimer and Barbie. At this juncture, a lot of my speculation is simply deciding whether certain features are even released in 2023. We might not see Ana DuVernay’s Caste, Steve McQueen’s Blitz, or Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson until 2024. That’s why I currently have them out of the mix.

One item that has materialized in the past couple of weeks is the release of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The acclaimed animated sequel has established itself as at least a candidate for BP consideration. There’s no doubt it’s the current frontrunner for Animated Feature.

You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Air (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 12) (+1)

12. May December (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Challengers (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Barbie (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Napoleon (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Asteroid City (PR: 24) (+7)

18. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (+4)

19. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

20. The Killer (PR: 23) (+3)

21. Flint Strong (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Rustin (PR: 18) (-4)

23. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 20) (-3)

24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (-3)

25. Ferrari (PR: 25) (E)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)

10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR:11) (-1)

13. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Todd Haynes, May December (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: Not Ranked)

Droped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

Jane Levy, A Little Prayer

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 4) (E)

5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 14) (+2)

13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Supporing Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (E)

8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Josh O’Connor, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives

2. Air

3. The Holdovers

4. Saltburn

5. May December

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City

7. Challengers

8. Maestro

9. Anatomy of a Fall

10. The Book of Clarence

11. Rustin

12. Drive Away Dolls

13. Napoleon

14. Bob Marley: One Love

15. Monster

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Poor Things

3. The Color Purple

4. The Zone of Interest

5. Dune: Part Two

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

8. Barbie

9. The Nickel Boys

10. Flint Strong

11. Freud’s Last Session

12. Strangers

13. The Bikeriders

14. Ferrari

15. The Boys in the Boat

2023 Oscar Predictions: May 29th Edition

As the month of May closes out, we arrive at my post Cannes forecast for the 96th Academy Awards! There were heavy hitters premiering in the south of France and buzz to discuss for several of them.

One year ago, Triangle of Sadness took the Palme d’Or (the fest’s top prize) and it eventually became a Best Picture contender at the Oscars. Ruben Östlund, Triangle‘s director who served as this year’s jury president, was also nominated for his behind the camera work.. In 2023, Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall won the biggest honor. The French courtroom drama established itself as a major factor in International Feature Film and it is feasible that it could nab a slot in the eventual BP ten.

Other films that solidified their statuses as Academy bait? We start with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. The three and a half hour epic maintains its #1 position in Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Lily Gladstone), and Supporting Actor after many raves at Cannes. However, the Supporting Actor in first is Robert De Niro and not Jesse Plemons, who was perched there two weeks ago. Reviews indicate it’s De Niro who should have the better shot.

Let’s be clear. My rankings right now reflect who I believe will be nominated and not necessarily who I think will win (it’s simply too early for that). Killers looks to be in a fantastic position for multiples nods after its unveiling.

Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest is right behind Moon as far as significant chatter out of the festival. The Holocaust drama could contend in Pic and Director. So could lead actress Sandra Hüller. Yet she might have an even stronger chance for her performance in Anatomy of a Fall.

For May December from Todd Haynes, reviews were quite solid. Its best chances at inclusion could be for its trio of actors Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore, and Charles Melton. We’re still not sure if Portman and Moore will be co-campaigned for lead. For now I’m slotting the former in Actress and the latter in supporting.

Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City drew plaudits though mixed reaction elsewhere. I’m skeptical of its chances (though it could play in down-the-line races like Production Design and Score).

Then there’s the features that dropped out of contention. Pixar’s Elemental won’t be the first studio title to vie for BP since Toy Story 3. It might be lucky to get an Animated Feature mention after some lackluster reaction. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny will not be a Top Gun: Maverick style hopeful for Oscars. And the fest’s opener Jeanne du Barry with Johnny Depp might get a Costume Design nod and that’s all.

In 2022, I made predictions for the 95th Academy Awards on this same day. It yielded 3 of the eventual 10 BP nominees with eventual winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and Women Talking. Four others (Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick) were named in Other Possibilities. I wasn’t ready to anoint Triangle of Sadness despite its Cannes hardware. In Director – I correctly named the victorious Daniels for Everything Everywhere and Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. With Best Actress, I had Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere) who would take the gold. Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Ana de Armas (Blonde) were Other Possibilities. I will note that I had Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) listed in supporting and she was nominated in lead. For Actor, winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale) were correctly called with Austin Butler (Elvis) listed. Both Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun) were Other Possibilities. None of the five contenders in Supporting Actress were rightly placed. I did have winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere), her costar Stephanie Hsu, and Hong Chau (The Whale) in Other Possibilities. Finally, Ke Huy Quan (who took the statue) for Everything Everywhere was the only correctly tagged performer in Supporting Actor.

OK… deep breath. With all that context, let’s see where everything and everyone ranks…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

6. Saltburn (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 15) (+8)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Air (PR: 9) (E)

10. Poor Things (PR: 6) (-4)

Other Possibilities:

11. May December (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Maestro (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Challengers (PR: 14) (E)

15. Blitz (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Barbie (PR: 12) (-4)

17. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Rustin (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Flint Strong (PR: 17) (-2)

20. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 16) (-4)

21. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (E)

22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (E)

23. The Killer (PR: 19) (-4)

24. Asteroid City (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Ferrari (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Strangers

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 14) (+9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Todd Haynes, May December

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

15. Jane Levy, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Regina King, Shirley

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (E)

11. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)

15. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, Strangers

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (E)

12. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (E)

14. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (E)

15. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Claire Foy, Strangers

Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+4)

5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilties:

6. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-9)

11. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, Maestro

2023 Oscar Predictions: May 14th Edition

My second round of ranked predictions in the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards comes two days before the 76th Annual Cannes Film Festival gets underway in the south of France. It will conclude on May 27th and you can expect my third round of forecasts shortly thereafter.

At Cannes, we will receive our first reviews and buzz for numerous heavy hitters. Those pictures include Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, May December from Todd Haynes, Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City, Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, Monster from Hirokazu Kore-eda, Firebrand with Alicia Vikander, Pixar’s Elemental, and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

Here is my pre-Cannes outlook on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies and let’s see how this gets shook up in a couple of weeks!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

6. Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Air (PR: 9) (E)

10. May December (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)

12. Barbie (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Blitz (PR: 13) (E)

14. Challengers (PR: 8) (-6)

15. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

16. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Flint Strong (PR: 19) (+2)

18. Napoleon (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Killer (PR: 21) (+2)

20. Rustin (PR: 20) (E)

21. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+3)

22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 17) (-5)

23. Ferrari (PR: 23) (E)

24. Strangers (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Asteroid City (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Bikeriders

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Todd Haynes, May December (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Luca Guadagnino, Challengers

David Fincher, The Killer

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

15. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (moved to Supporting)

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 14) (+5)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (E)

11. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 5) (-7)

13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Andrew Scott, Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andre Holland, The Actor

Paul Mescal, Strangers (moved to Supporting)

Adam Driver, Ferrari

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (E)

9. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)

12. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Moon Seung-ah, Past Lives

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Jeremy Strong, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Paul Dano, Dumb Money

Oscars – The Case of Top Gun: Maverick

Will Academy voters feel the need? The need for recognizing the year’s biggest domestic grosser in the Best Picture race at the 95th Academy Awards? It’s the eighth film up for consideration in my Case Of posts.

The Case for Top Gun: Maverick:

This would represent the People’s Choice. Tom Cruise’s summer sequel rode a wave of sizzling buzz to towering business ($718 million stateside) while critics raved (96% on Rotten Tomatoes). It nabbed six nominations including some key ones for a BP victory like Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing.

The Case Against Top Gun: Maverick:

It also missed in some important precursors. Despite a DGA spot, director Joseph Kosinski was omitted from the Oscar five. Maverick was considered a threat to take Cinematography gold (as it did at the Globes), but was snubbed. Mega-blockbusters don’t usually take the grand prize (it’s been almost 20 years since Lord of the Rings: Return of the King rose above its competitors).

Other Nominations:

Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Original Song, Sound, Visual Effects

The Verdict:

The sound of a Maverick win may be likeliest in Sound. The preferential ballot could lend itself to an upset in BP. It has a better shot than the other sequel in contention Avatar: The Way of Water. However, the odds are slightly against it.

My Case Of posts will continue with Triangle of Sadness!

If you didn’t catch my previous write-ups on BP contenders, click here:

Oscars: The Case of All Quiet on the Western Front
Oscars – The Case of Avatar: The Way of Water
Oscars: The Case of The Banshees of Inisherin
Oscars: The Case of Elvis
Oscars: The Case of Everything Everywhere All at Once
Oscars: The Case of The Fabelmans
Oscars: The Case of Tár
Oscars: The Case of Triangle of Sadness
Oscars: The Case of Women Talking

Shoulda Been Oscar Contenders: Jim Carrey in The Truman Show

1994’s 1-2-3 comedic punch of Ace Ventura: Pet Detective, The Mask, and Dumb and Dumber vaulted Jim Carrey from In Living Color small screen MVP to one of the biggest movie stars on the planet. $20 million paydays followed and, four years later, the Canadian phenom entered the awards conversation.

For Peter Weir’s prescient satire The Truman Show, Carrey’s performance mixed the funny with the dramatic for the first time in a major role. Solid box office numbers and impressive reviews followed. Ed Harris was nominated for a Supporting Actor Oscar in addition to Weir’s direction and the original screenplay.

Yet a nod for its headliner was inexplicably left on the cutting room floor. This was even after he won Best Actor (Drama) at the Golden Globes. To be fair, other nominations in the main acting derby featured heavy hitters: Tom Hanks (Saving Private Ryan), Ian McKellen (Gods and Monsters), Nick Nolte (Affliction), and Edward Norton (American History X).

If I had a magic wand, I probably would put Carrey in over the somewhat surprise winner – Roberto Benigni for Life is Beautiful. Nearly a quarter century ago, Carrey’s omission stands as another example of actors known more for laughs coming up short. He still has not managed to get on the Oscar radar and lately his cinematic output has been Sonic the Hedgehog related. The Truman Show, in all reality, should’ve been his contender.

Top Gun: Maverick Review

Sun drenched SoCal nostalgia permeates every land, air, and beach surface of Top Gun: Maverick and it’s a pleasure to bask in the glow. Many a franchise lately has attempted to tap into our sentimentality and many have failed. 36 years after the original, Maverick elevates what preceded it while making us misty about those very events from the mid 80s. Perhaps most thrilling is watching a movie star firmly in control of what’s made him a headliner for five decades.

Captain Pete Mitchell aka Maverick (Tom Cruise) has refused upward promotion in the Navy while spending the bulk of his working hours skyward as a test pilot. The romance that took his breath away with Kelly McGillis is seemingly long dormant. His friendship with Iceman (Val Kilmer), now a decorated Admiral, saves his tail after a work mishap. Instead of washing out, he’s sent back to San Diego as a TOPGUN teacher. Against the wishes of a Vice Admiral who goes by Cyclone (Jon Hamm), Maverick is tasked with instructing a new generation of pilots.

Their mission (and they’re forced to accept it) is to destroy an unnamed enemy nation’s uranium enrichment plant. It is (ahem) a potentially impossible mission and Maverick’s tutelage is complicated by one of the students. Rooster (Miles Teller) is the son of the late Goose (Anthony Edwards) from the original. You may recall that he perished in the arms of the leading man and therefore eliminated his ability to talk to anyone except for metaphorically.

While the dynamic between the teacher and his pupil is the pic’s emotional through line, there’s subplots aplenty. This includes Maverick’s courtship of Penny (Jennifer Connelly), who checks the boxes of being an ex-flame, single mother, and bar owner where standards from the 1960s can be drunkenly belted out. We also get a truly emotional sequence with Cruise and Kilmer made more touching by the latter’s real world health challenges. And, of course, there’s a whole new crop of pilots. Most memorable, by far, is the cocky Hangman (Glen Powell). You’ll leave the theater convinced Powell is going to become a major headliner himself.

Then there’s the fact that technology has soared by leaps and bounds since the first one. To put it simply – the aerial battles in the third act are awesome and I would suggest an IMAX venue to take it in. As mentioned, many fan service attempts in recent times have been serviceable at best or less. Top Gun: Maverick, with its megawatt star, is more than that. It earns its stripes.

***1/2 (out of four)

Top Gun: Maverick Box Office Prediction

***And a final update for Top Gun: Maverick as my prediction rises again to $113.4 million for the three-day and $138 million for the four-day. That it gives it the #2 all-time Memorial Day for both frames.

***Blogger’s Update (05/25): Significantly up-ticking my estimate once again. Now projecting a three-day of $103.7M (good for second biggest Memorial Day Friday to Sunday) and $124.4M for the four-day (third largest all-time). Sky is increasing the limit…

**Blogger’s Update (05/24): Estimate updated from a three and four-day projection, respectively, of $75.6M and $98.8M to $86.6M and $104.9M. That now gives Maverick the #7 largest Memorial Day weekend three-day and #6 four-day

It could be a record breaking memorable weekend for Tom Cruise as Top Gun: Maverick finally lands in theaters. The long gestating sequel arrives 36 years after the original made Cruise a superstar. The wait was only supposed to be 33-34 years, but production delays and COVID postponements altered the plan.

Joseph Kosinki, who previously directed the lead in 2013’s Oblivion, directs. Costars include Miles Teller, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Glen Powell, Ed Harris, Monica Barbaro, and Val Kilmer reprising his role as Iceman. Critics have certainly indicated this is worth the wait. Budgeted at a reported $150 million, reviews are impressive with a 97% Rotten Tomatoes score. There’s even Oscar buzz as it will surely be a contender in Sound and Song (with Lady Gaga crooning “Hold My Hand”).

Paramount is hopeful that Maverick will take the breath and money away from moviegoers over the Memorial Day frame. The loud buzz generated by critics should make this soar even higher than previously anticipated.

In doing so, we could see Tom cruise to a personal best opening. Somewhat surprisingly, his all-time largest opening is War of the Worlds at $64 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday period. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (the last flick to feature Cruise four years ago) is close behind at $61 million.

Maverick will, of course, have a four-day tally. That’s familiar territory for Cruise as the first three Mission: Impossible tales premiered over Memorial Day with the second one doing $70 million from Friday to Monday. However, it opened on the Wednesday before to bring its gross to $91 million.

First things first. I do believe Tom’s latest sequel will achieve his highest three day take ever. I also suspect there will be some projections for Maverick that will be too high. A four-day take of over $100 million is absolutely doable (and my prediction could rise in the coming days), but I’m skeptical. That’s uncharted territory for Mr. Cruise. A Friday to Sunday haul in the mid 70s seems likelier. If that happens, it should achieve mid 90s for the whole frame. That would give it the ninth best Memorial 3 day start – in between Solo: A Star Wars Story ($84 million) and The Lost World: Jurassic Park ($72 million). It would rise a spot to 8th for the four-day between the same two features at $103 million and $90 million, respectively. And that would be a memorable start indeed.

Top Gun: Maverick opening weekend prediction: $113.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $138 million (Friday to Monday)

For my The Bob’s Burgers Movie, click here:

The Bob’s Burgers Movie Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Top Gun: Maverick

Top Gun: Maverick was supposed to arrive a mere 34 years after its iconic predecessor. Due to numerous COVID delays, it now hits theaters on May 27th and some 36 years behind the original. By nearly all accounts, Tom Cruise and the filmmakers have landed the plane.

Ahead of its Cannes premiere, the review embargo has lapsed for Maverick and the Rotten Tomatoes score is a sizzling 96%. Nearly all critics are calling it an improvement over the ’86 blockbuster and it could be in line to give Cruise his largest opening and overall hit of his career (my box office prediction will arrive next week).

Three and a half decades back, part one caught the attention of Academy voters in four categories. The Berlin theme “Take My Breath Away” won Best Song and Gun nabbed nods for Film Editing, Sound, and Sound Effects Editing. All those races are in play again in one form or another.

Best Sound has been condensed to one category and it’s a near lock that the sequel will play there. Film Editing, Cinematography, and Visual Effects are also possibilities. Then there’s the sound of Lady Gaga’s voice. The superstar contributed the track “Hold My Hand” and it could be hard to beat. Ms. Gaga is poised for her third Song nomination behind 2015’s “Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground and “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (which won). She also shares Score credit with Hans Zimmer (who just won a trophy for Dune) and Harold Faltermeyer (best known for his Beverly Hills Cop tune “Axel F”).

Let’s assume Sound and Song are gimmes. With the aforementioned others, we could be looking at a handful of mentions. Will the Academy go beyond the tech derbies? It looks like Maverick will be a gigantic earner and crowdpleaser. I have no doubt there will be a push from Paramount for Best Picture recognition and Cruise in Best Actor. If so, it would be his fourth acting nod. There were two in lead for 1989’s Born on the Fourth of July and 1996’s Jerry Maguire and a supporting mention for 1999’s Magnolia. He’s never made a victorious trip to the podium.

I’m skeptical about it playing in the major leagues, but wins in Sound and Song are doable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Lost Daughter

Maggie Gyllenhaal’s directorial debut The Lost Daughter has screened at Venice prior to its theatrical and Netflix release in December. Olivia Colman stars as a college professor who confronts her familial past. The supporting cast includes Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Peter Sarsgaard, and Ed Harris.

In addition to being behind the camera, Gyllenhaal (a 2009 Supporting Actress nominee for Crazy Heart) also adapted the screenplay based on an Elena Ferrante novel. Reviews indicate this is an impressive start to her directing career and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Will the Academy take notice? It certainly may with Colman, who’s unsurprisingly drawing raves. Best Actress should be a crowded field so this is no guarantee. If Colman does manage one of the five spots, it would be her third nod in four years. She won the lead race in 2018 for The Favourite and was nominated in Supporting Actress for The Father last year. Johnson and Buckley are slightly longer shots for supporting and Netflix could concentrate primarily on Colman.

I’m not sure Picture or Director are feasible, but you never know if the streamer goes all in on a campaign. Bottom line: Colman may have the best odds, but The Lost Daughter could find its way into other competitions with the right push. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

Shoulda Been Oscar Contenders: Jack Lemmon in Glengarry Glen Ross

James Foley’s 1992 adaptation of David Mamet’s Pulitzer Prize winning play Glengarry Glen Ross is an abundance of riches featuring some of the finest actors around. From Alec Baldwin’s now legendary speech to the assorted desperate salesmen to Ed Harris, Alan Arkin, Kevin Spacey, and Jonathan Pryce showcasing their chops (and many creative uses for profanity), it is truly an actors showcase. Looking back, it’s surprising that it only received one Oscar nomination. I would argue they picked the wrong screen legend to honor in Supporting Actor. This brings us to our latest Shoulda Been Contender.

1992 was a huge year for Al Pacino. He had been nominated for six Oscars and had zero victories to show for it. That included amazing work in the first two Godfather epics and Dog Day Afternoon. Pacino was a double nominee in ’92 for lead in Scent of a Woman and in supporting here. The former would finally bring him his long awaited win. However, I would argue that Jack Lemmon should have filled the slot for the latter.

As the once thriving and now down on his luck Shelley “The Machine” Levene, it is Lemmon’s character that is the heart of the picture. By its year of release, Mr. Lemmon had already garnered 8 nods for his long body of work. This includes two wins – 1955’s Mister Roberts in supporting and 1973’s Save the Tiger in lead. His last nomination came in 1982 for Missing. No disrespect to Pacino, but this should have marked #9 and would have rightfully given Lemmon deserved mentions in five different decades.