Tag: Dune

Will the Bob Dylan Movie Electrify Oscar Voters?

The past few days for awards prognosticators like me have been eventful as the Venice and Toronto Film Festival have unveiled their lineups. Many of the expected 2024 heavy hitters have confirmed their premieres up north and across the ocean. That includes Conclave, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, The End, Hard Truths, and The Room Next Door to name a few. The NY Festival features Nickel Boys as its debut screening while Blitz will play London.

None of that information is particularly surprising. There was a rather unexpected development today courtesy of Fox Searchlight. The studio premiered the first look at their Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown and announced a release date of December. Directed by James Mangold, Timothée Chalamet stars as the legendary folk singer and the Dune/Wonka actor does his own crooning that you can hear in the trailer.

So will the picture be a golden ticket for Oscar attention? The December drop would indicate that Fox thinks so. Mangold is no stranger to this genre as he made 2005’s Walk the Line with Joaquin Phoenix as Johnny Cash. He was nominated for Best Actor while Reese Witherspoon won Actress as June Carter Cash. Chalamet has been killing it lately at the box office, but his sole Academy nom was for 2017’s Call Me by Your Name (losing to Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour). This is obviously a high profile turn and he joins an Actor competition that is quite unclear. Only one thing seems certain(ish) and that’s Colman Domingo making the final five for the acclaimed Sing Sing. Since I started my forecasts in May, there’s been two other performers I’ve had slotted in the quintet: Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) and Daniel Craig (Queer). We’ll know soon enough if they are legit contenders. The other two spots have fluctuated between hopefuls like Sebastian Stan (for either The Apprentice or A Different Man), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), and Glen Powell (Hit Man). And we can’t discount Mr. Phoenix for his second stint as Joker.

I do suspect that Chalamet will materialize in my top 5 for recognition when I update my predictions in the coming days. Where else could Unknown get in? Well, there’s Best Picture and Mangold’s direction. Walk the Line missed the cut for BP nearly 20 years ago. If there were 10 nominees back then like there is now, it probably would’ve gotten in. Mangold is a well-respected filmmaker with varied works including Cop Land, Girl, Interrupted, Logan, and Ford v Ferrari. While his co-scripting of Logan gave him an Adapted Screenplay nomination, he’s never received a directing mention.

Walk the Line did nab three other noms for Costume Design, Film Editing, and Sound Mixing. All three of those (though Sound is now just Sound since it combined Sound Mixing and Sound Editing) could be Unknown inclusions. Adapted Screenplay is also a possibility.

As for the rest of the cast, we simply don’t know if Edward Norton as Pete Seeger, Elle Fanning as Sylvie Russo, or Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez are substantial enough for supporting recognitions. I would anticipate at least Fanning being listed as a possibility in my next update.

Fox Searchlight also has Nightbitch and A Real Pain as awards bait releases. The former is mostly being discussed for Amy Adams and an Actress nod (where I currently have her ranked #1). The latter is seen as a vehicle for a Kieran Culkin Supporting Actor try (where I have him ranked fourth). Both could be in the BP mix. However, on paper, A Complete Unknown might be Fox’s most electrifying prospect. This is, of course, a complete unknown until it screens. We do now that it’ll be in this cycle.

Oscar Predictions – A Quiet Place: Day One

Horror prequel A Quiet Place: Day One is out this weekend with a fresh creative team behind and in front of the camera. Michael Sarnoski, best known for Pig with Nicolas Cage, directs with Lupita Nyong’o, Joseph Quinn, and Alex Wolff entering the franchise. Djimon Hounsou reprises his turn from A Quiet Place Part II.

The review embargo is up and it is slightly behind its two predecessors. 2018’s original posted 96% on RT with 2021’s follow-up at 91%. Day One currently stands at 86%. There is particular praise for Nyong’o who probably came close to a Best Actress nom in this genre with 2019’s Us.

At the 91st Academy Awards, A Quiet Place was up for Sound Editing (this was right before Sound Editing and Sound Mixing were combined into Best Sound). It ultimately lost to Bohemian Rhapsody and was its sole nod. Side note: Emily Blunt took home a surprise Supporting Actress SAG prize for the pic while missing the Oscar cut.

Part II did not get a Sound mention three years later as Dune was the victor. Day‘s only shot on Oscar night is Sound and it’s a coin flip whether it gets in. You’re safe to assume it won’t take the statue even if it makes the quintet thanks to Dune: Part Two. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Challengers Review

Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers swings and lands and swings and misses and misses and lands and repeats. Strengths become flaws as the EDM score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross is a charge to hear until it isn’t. The non-linear structure of the love triangle provides glimpses of high-powered melodrama, but it’s also distractingly messy in at least equal measure. Where I find no fault was in the performances even if I wish the script from Justin Kuritzkes served them better.

Volleying between 2006 and 2019 and significant points in between, we are introduced to BFF’s Art (Mike Faist) and Patrick (Josh O’Connor) as tennis juniors champs at the US Open. Along with the rest of the sports world, they are smitten by highly touted prospect Tashi (Zendaya) who is biding her going pro jump until the right moment. A late night meeting at a hotel on the day of the boys’ introduction to her provides fireworks that will complicate and influence their dynamic for the next decade plus.

It is 13 years after that encounter that Art and Patrick, long estranged, hurdle toward a match at a Challenger event. Tashi’s go pro unveiling never came into focus, but she and Art have formed a potent partnership while Patrick’s career has stalled. Flashbacks fill in other pertinent details and haphazardly at times. Despite its 131 minutes of action, characterizations of the players can run frustratingly thin.

Tashi seems to hold a lot of power over the gents and Zendaya’s work sells it. She cannot impose her will on the court and strives to do so with those competing on it via other methods. Kudos to the Dune heroine for nailing this unlikable character that should have been more fleshed out. O’Connor and Faist also excel with the former perhaps more of a breakout.

There’s really no one to root for in Challengers by design as this less than holy trinity think far more about themselves than others. You may find yourself calculating who among them is the worst offender. Guadagnino turns the aforementioned score and soap opera vibes up loudly. It works often as a pure guilty pleasure. By its conclusion, however, I might’ve been laughing at the stylistic flourishes and not with it.

**1/2 (out of four)

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Director

We are over a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the acting derbies and they can be perused here:

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Oscar Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We now move to Director. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded the winner with Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer as well as Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Yorgos Lanthimos of Poor Things. I did not identify Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) or Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) at the early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders.

In 2021, one of the biggest shockers of nomination morning was Denis Villeneuve being left out of Best Director for Dune. I don’t have history repeating itself as the filmmaker makes my initial quintet for the sequel. So does Edward Berger, who was surprisingly snubbed in 2022 for All Quiet on the Western Front.

Here’s the first snapshot…

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTION FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:

Edward Berger, Conclave

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

Joshua Oppenheimer, The End

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Other Possibilities:

Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice

Andrea Arnold, Bird

Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

Alex Garland, Civil War

Luca Guadagnino, Queer

Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

Sean Wang, Dídi

Best Picture is up next!

Oscar Predictions: Late Night with the Devil

South by Southwest is happening now and giving us some potential awards players (keep an eye out for my imminent Civil War post for example). It was at last year’s SXSW that festival goers were first exposed to Late Night with the Devil. Australian brothers Colin and Cameron Cairnes direct the 1970s set found footage horror flick with David Dastmalchian as a talk show host showcasing some demonic guests. Laura Gordon, Ian Bliss, and Fayssal Bazzi costar.

Devil is finally slated for stateside distribution on March 22nd with a Shudder streaming bow on April 19th. Many reviews are raves and it sports a 100% RT score. Dastmalchian, a memorable character who you may recognize from Prisoners, The Suicide Squad, Dune, and Oppenheimer, is being praised for this rare lead role.

That said, this is not the kind of material that awards voters notice… at least at the big dance. Perhaps the Indie Spirit Awards will be more attuned to its scare tactics. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

March 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Kung Fu Panda 4 will attempt to kick Dune: Part Two out of the top spot this weekend and we also have Blumhouse horror flick Imaginary and faith-based biopic Cabrini debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

Kung Fu Panda 4 Box Office Prediction
Imaginary Box Office Prediction
Cabrini Box Office Prediction

I am estimating that DreamWorks Animation’s Panda franchise will continue its downward trend with a high 30s start after the longest layoff between entries.

If that occurs, that likely means a 2nd place showing behind the sophomore frame of Dune: Part Two. That hotly anticipated sequel opened right in line with expectations (more on that below) and had an A Cinemascore grade. Some of its business is understandably frontloaded, but its drop could hold up sturdier than other genre fare in the high 40s to low 50s range.

Blumhouse should have another profitable fright fest with Imaginary considering its reported low budget. However, I don’t envision it premiering anywhere near the studio’s biggest earners. A low double digits gross could put it in third.

That’s unless Cabrini overperforms and it’s the weekend wild car in my view. Coming from Angel Studios and the director of last summer’s smash Sound of Freedom, this could surprise if faith-based crowds turn out in force. On the other hand, Angel’s follow-ups like After Death and The Shift have only managed mid single digits out of the gate. I’m splitting the difference and forecasting a fourth place finish.

Finally, Bob Marley: One Love should round out the top five as it attempts to reach $100 million domestically.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $40.7 million

2. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $38.1 million

3. Imaginary

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. Cabrini

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

5. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (March 1-3)

I had Dune: Part Two doubling the debut of its 2021 predecessor and that’s precisely what occurred. The sequel, which landed even better reviews than the heavily Oscar nominated original, took in $82.5 million. That’s in line with my $83.6 million prediction and just over what Oppenheimer premiered with last summer. Christopher Nolan’s biopic (which is about to be crowned Best Picture) experienced only a 43% second weekend decline. As mentioned, Dune‘s should be more, but perhaps not by too much.

After two weeks in first, Bob Marley: One Love was second with $7.4 million and that’s right on target with my $7.5 million call. That biopic now stands at $82 million after three weeks.

Ordinary Angels remained in third with $3.8 million, falling shy of my $4.9 million projection. The faith-based drama with Hilary Swank has $12 million in its coffers after two weeks.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 was fourth with $3.2 million (I said $2.9 million). Since its Leap Day Thursday opening, the total is $4 million.

Finally, superheroine flop Madame Web was fifth with $3.1 million (I said $2.9 million) for a mere $40 million in its three frames of release.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 1-3 Box Office Predictions

The month of March blows in some much needed excitement at the box office with Dune: Part Two storming theaters. It looks to dominate the charts with easily the largest debut of 2024 thus far and my detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:

Dune: Part Two Box Office Prediction

My low to mid 80s take has it doubling the premiere gross of its 2021 predecessor (which had COVID limitations and debuted simultaneously on Max). Those restrictions are gone and it’s generating stronger reviews than part one, which managed 10 Oscar nominations.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 is available just like the first six shows at multiplexes beginning Thursday. My Friday to Sunday estimate puts it in a battle for fourth place with comic book based dud Madame Web‘s third frame.

Current two-week champ Bob Marley: One Love should slide a spot to 2nd with a mid 40s dip. Ordinary Angels is likely to stay third and with an A+ Cinemascore grade, its decline could be minimal (maybe mid to high teens range).

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training was last weekend’s biggest newcomer and had the largest per theater average of all. Like its predecessor To the Swordsmith Village, it should find itself out of the high five as it’s primarily playing as a one-week engagement.

Here’s how I see the top 5 breaking down:

1. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $83.6 million

2. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

3. Ordinary Angels

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

4. Madame Web

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

5. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (February 23-25)

Biopic Bob Marley: One Love felt the love again in first place with $13.4 million in its sophomore outing. It fell an understandable 53% and didn’t match my rosier $16.2 million projection. The overall tally is a buoyant $71 million.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashita Training managed to outdo Swordsmith by around a million bucks with $11.5 million for the runner-up spot. That’s also the margin that it outpaced my $10.5 million call.

Ordinary Angels took in $6.1 million for third, falling below my $8 million forecast. The faith-based drama, as mentioned, is garnering praise from audiences and it could experience small declines in the coming weeks.

Madame Web, after a troubling start, dropped 61% for fourth at $5.9 million (just over my $5.6 million prediction). The subpar total since Valentine’s Day is $35 million.

Migration rounded out the top five with $2.8 million (I said $2.9 million) for $120 million in ten weeks.

Argylle was sixth with $2.7 million compared to my $3 million guesstimate as the spy comedy has made $41 million in four weeks.

Wonka was seventh with $2.4 million. I didn’t project a number for it and the holiday confection hit $214 million after 11 weeks.

Finally, Ethan Coen’s road comedy Drive-Away Dolls stalled in eighth with $2.4 million, in line with my $2.6 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Dune: Part Two Box Office Prediction

Dune: Part Two looks to storm the box office when it debuts on March 1st with what should easily be the largest debut so far in 2024. Denis Villeneuve returns as director with Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in action. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.

The follow-up to the 2021 original could double its opening. As you may recall, Dune experienced a COVID delay from fall 2020 to fall 2021. The pandemic still limited its potential as it simultaneously premiered on Max. That resulted in a $41 million start which was quite impressive for that period of time. It wrapped up its run at $110 million domestically.

At its low end, Part Two is expected to take in $60 million out of the gate. Reviews for the continuation of Frank Herbert’s source material top part one and it’s currently at 98% on RT with plenty of Oscar nominations expected months down the road. The high end of its range is $80 million or even $90 million.

I am forecasting this could get to the low to mid 80s for the aforementioned double up of its predecessor with a little room to spare.

Dune: Part Two opening weekend prediction: $83.6 million

Oscar Predictions – Dune: Part Two

In 2021, Denis Villeneuve’s vision of Dune generated 10 Oscar nods and six victories. The eagerly awaited Dune: Part Two sweeps into theaters on March 1 (this time with no simultaneous release date on Max). It is expected to outdo its predecessor in terms of box office numbers (my financial estimate is hitting the blog shortly). Part Two may also match or exceed the original’s nomination count.

The review embargo lifted today and the current RT score is a dazzling 97%. That’s up over the 83% that Dune had. Many critics claim it improves upon part one in every way. Villeneuve returns to direct. Among the sprawling cast, we have Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in the mix. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.

At the 94th Academy Awards, Dune‘s took gold in tech races Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Had Part Two not been pushed from 2023 to 2024, it would likely be in serious competition with Oppenheimer and others in those competitions. It would have Visual Effects locked up. Dune ’21 also had nominations for Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup & Hairstyling.

Let’s be clear. Based on the reaction out today, Part Two should vie for inclusion in all those categories… and more. You may recall that Villeneuve was notably snubbed in Director three years back. The Academy might make up for that this time around.

Then there’s the actors and that’s trickier. Ferguson got a little ink as a possibility for Supporting Actress for Dune. For the sequel, expect the same for Chalamet and especially Butler as the villainous Feyd-Rautha. It is also possible the cast will be ignored. For the Lord of the Rings trilogy, only Ian McKellen ever managed a nomination for the initial chapter.

Bottom line: Part Two looks like 2024’s first surefire contender in BP and much more (it is hard to imagine it losing derbies like Cinematography and Visual Effects). The 96th ceremony hasn’t aired yet, but the 97th seems to have truly started with this embargo lapsing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

February 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Horror comedy Lisa Frankenstein looks to top the charts in what should be a sleepy box office frame. It’s the only new wide release hitting cineplexes and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Lisa Frankenstein Box Office Prediction

While I don’t have Frankenstein even achieving $10 million, my forecast is enough to put it in first position. Let’s be frank – Sunday should especially be a dead zone as many moviegoers will be preoccupied by the Chiefs and 49ers.

Argylle was ushered in as the champ this past frame (more on that below), but it underwhelmed. With a troubling C+ Cinemascore grade, I’m thinking a sophomore plummet in the range of 60% is possible.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3 had a fruitful runner-up beginning. Yet it appears poised to drop from the high five considering its decline should be massive (probably in the 75-80% arena like its previous episodic releases).

That could leave holdovers The Beekeeper, Wonka, and Migration in their current 3-5 places. This is with a big caveat: Dune is scheduled to be re-released this weekend ahead of the sequel’s March bow and I’m waiting to see a count. I certainly believe it’s feasible that it manages a top 5 showing. Disney is also putting Turning Red back in venues. I’m less convinced it makes the five, but it’s doable. I will edit this post if I put either of them in (probably on Wednesday).

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Lisa Frankenstein

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

2. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

3. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

4. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

5. Migration

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (February 2-4)

As mentioned, Matthew Vaughn’s spy action comedy Argylle had a hollow victory at #1 with $17.4 million. That’s a tad under my $18.3 million call and not an impressive gross considering the reported king’s ransom of $200 million that Apple paid for the rights.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3 had pleasing viewership with $5.9 million from Friday to Sunday – just ahead of my $5.4 million take. Counting its Thursday start, it has earned $7.3 million.

The Beekeeper was third in weekend #4 with $5.2 million (I went with $4.8 million) for $49 million total.

Wonka was fourth after 8 weeks with $4.6 million. My prediction? $4.6 million! The overall tally is $201 million.

Migration rounded out the top five at $4.1 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The animated tale is up to $106 million after 7 weeks.

Mean Girls fell from 1st to 6th after three weeks atop the charts with $3.8 million compared to my $4.3 million projection. It has made $66 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…