As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered nine of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The final entry in this competition is Jon M. Chu’s Wicked.
The Case for Wicked:
If Best Picture were (ahem) a popularity contest, the adaptation of the iconic stage play would fly away with the gold. The worldwide tally is $722 million and counting and that’s just ahead of Dune: Part Two‘s global take. It tied for the second most Academy nominations at 10 (along with The Brutalist) contending in Actress (Cynthia Erivo), Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande), Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Precursor BP nods were achieved at the Globes, Critics Choice, and PGA and it’s also up for Ensemble at SAG.
The Case Against Wicked:
There are some key misses as BAFTA passed it by and it lost at the Globes in Best Film (Musical or Comedy) to Emilia Pérez (before recent controversy). Despite the double digits noms, the omissions for Chu’s direction and Adapted Screenplay are noteworthy. The voters could figure they can wait until part two coming later this year to honor it.
The Verdict:
Down the line victories in Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound in particular appear doable. I wouldn’t completely discount a Wicked BP win, but it’s a long shot. If it manages to take Ensemble at SAG, expect chatter to rise. I’d still be skeptical.
My Case Of Posts will continue with our first Best Actress hopeful and that’s Cynthia Erivo in Wicked…
Seven of the last 10 PGA top prize winners ended up winning Best Picture at the Oscars. The 36th edition of their awards ceremony takes place Saturday and the guild also honors documentary and animated features.
Let’s walk through all 3 races with my predicted winner and a runner-up and some brief commentary.
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance, Wicked
In this wide open BP derby, this is where momentum could truly be achieved (coupled with Critics Choice this weekend). I believe Dune, Pain, September, and Substance are the only nominees with no real shot. I’ve been consistent with The Brutalist being slotted first in my BP rankings over the last several weeks. I’ll stay with that, but if it comes up short here… the narrative could change.
PREDICTED WINNER: The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Flow, Inside Out 2, Moana 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Like this category at other awards shows, this should come to Flow v. Robot and I’m giving the latter an edge (unlike the Globes where I correctly called Flow).
PREDICTED WINNER: The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Flow
Outstanding Producer of Documentrary Theatrical Motion Pictures
Gaucho Gaucho, Mediha, Mountain Queen: The Summits of Lhakpa Sherpa, Porcelain War, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, We Will Dance Again
PGA often marches to their own drum with the docs. That’s true this year as Porcelain War is the only feature listed among this group that’s also up for Oscar. Therefore it might be the safer bet, but I’m going with Super/Man.
PREDICTED WINNER: Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
The Critics’ Choice Awards hold their 30th ceremony this Friday after being delayed nearly a month due to the California wildfires. The Chelsea Handler hosted affair could certainly provide clues as to where Oscar could go in various competitions.
For some context, here’s how many times the CCA victor in some high profile races have matched with the Academy in the previous decade:
Picture: 5/10
Director: 8/10
Actress: 6/10
Actor: 6/10
Supporting Actress: 8/10
Supporting Actor: 9/10
Unlike the Oscars where my speculation goes on for months and across scores of posts, this is quick and to the point. Here are my winner predictions with a runner-up named. I’ll have a recap up shortly after the show.
Best Picture
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Anora
Best Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
PREDICTED WINNER – Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
PREDICTED WINNER – Mikey Madison, Anora
Runner-Up: Demi Moore, The Substance
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)
PREDICTED WINNER – Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
PREDICTED WINNER – Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
PREDICTED WINNER – Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
PREDICTED WINNER – Anora
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Conclave
Runner-Up: Nickel Boys
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
PREDICTED WINNER – Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
PREDICTED WINNER – The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Flow
BEST COMEDY
Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma
PREDICTED WINNER – A Real Pain
Runner-Up: Saturday Night
BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)
PREDICTED WINNER – Izaac Wang, Dídi
Runner-Up: Elliot Heffernan, Blitz
BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST EDITING
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, September 5
PREDICTED WINNER – Anora
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – The Substance
Runner-Up: Wicked
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST SCORE
The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot
PREDICTED WINNER – Challengers
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST SONG
“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
PREDICTED WINNER – “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: “Compress/Repress” from Challengers
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Dune: Part Two
Runner-Up: Better Man
That means I’m projecting that these pictures win these numbers of CCAs:
4 Wins
The Brutalist
3 Wins
Anora, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
2 Wins
A Real Pain
1 Win
Challengers, Conclave, Dídi, Dune: Part Two, The Substance, The Wild Robot
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the first four features for BP and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The fifth is Dune: Part Two.
The Case for Dune: Part Two:
If the Academy wants to honor one of the most widely seen pics, Dune is second only to Wicked in that particular race. The sci-fi sequel stands at $714 million worldwide compared to Wicked‘s $718 million (and growing). Denis Villeneuve’s epic continuation of Frank Herbert’s novels made the BP cut at PGA, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes.
The Case Against Dune: Part Two:
The misses are more glaring. Dune‘s additional Academy nods (Cinematography, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects) bring its total to five compared to the original’s 10. For perspective, part one from 2021 won six golden guys. Villeneuve didn’t get in Best Director (like with its predecessor) and the screenplay isn’t honored. Beyond what the Academy did, Dune failed to get into the BAFTA derby and Villeneuve was snubbed at the Directors Guild (unlike what occurred three years ago).
The Verdict:
In my previous Case Of posts for Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, and Conclave, I’ve given them all at least a shot at taking the top prize. Dune: Part Two is the first entry where I don’t believe winning is a possibility.
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered Anora, The Brutalist, and A Complete Unknown for BP and if you missed those, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our fourth hopeful is Conclave.
The Case for Conclave:
Edward Berger’s pulpy papal drama has been considered a top awards player since it debuted at Telluride in September. With 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, reviews are solid enough and it performed decently at the box office (over $30 million) for its genre. It is up for 8 statues including Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. Conclave has scored BP nods everywhere it needs to. It leads the BAFTAs with 12 nominations, is up at Critics Choice and PGA and for Best Ensemble at SAG, and contended at the Golden Globes in Best Drama where it won Best Screenplay. Berger’s behind the camera work also landed a DGA mention.
The Case Against Conclave:
Berger surprisingly missed the cut with the Academy in Best Director. Only three films in the 21st century (Argo, Green Book, CODA) have won BP without its maker being nominated. Berger can’t catch a break with the Academy as his 2022 war epic All Quiet on the Western Front received nine mentions but excluded his direction. The 79 Metacritic score is less than some competitors. It is possible that the only race where its the frontrunner is Adapted Screenplay and possibly Editing. Don’t expect either of its acting nominees to make podium walks. The Brutalist emerged victorious at the Globes in Best Drama.
The Verdict:
The snub of Berger looms large. I’d likely be more optimistic if he hadn’t been left out. Conclave has a slight chance in BP, but I wouldn’t put much faith in it.
My Case Of posts will continue with Dune: Part Two…
Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott announced nominees for the 97th Academy Awards this morning after being delayed from last week due to the California wildfires. For the ceremony airing March 2nd (hosted by Conan O’Brien), I went 89 for 105 in my picks. I’ll allow myself a pat on the back as I managed to go 20/20 in the four acting derbies and 10/10 in the screenplay races.
As predicted, Emilia Pérez led all hopefuls and it managed to nab 13 nominations (I projected it would get 11). The Brutalist and Wicked followed with 10 apiece while A Complete Unknown and Conclave generated 8.
Let’s walk through each competition with how I did and some initial thoughts, shall we?
BEST PICTURE
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 9/10
The surprise of the morning was Brazilian drama I’m Still Here making the cut. I had A Real Pain instead. As has been discussed frequently on the blog, this is an uncharacteristically open BP field with several winner possibilities. Readers know that I’ve had The Brutalist listed in 1st and I see no reason to change that, but Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave (to a lesser degree… we’ll get to that), Pérez, and maybe Wicked loom.
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
How I Did: 4/5
DGA nominee Mangold is in the quintet over Edward Berger (Conclave). The latter has his second significant snub just two years after being left off for All Quiet on the Western Front. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t emerge as the BP victor, Corbet is the frontrunner. I think Conclave‘s BP chances took a hit with Berger missing.
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
How I Did: 5/5
The narrative for Moore might be too enticing for the Academy to ignore, but I’m beginning to wonder if Torres is a bigger threat than even Madison to upset. I’ll note that all nominees are from BP contenders.
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalmaet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/5
The showdown should come down to Brody v. Chalamet.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 5/5
Like Actress, all nominees hail from BP hopefuls with Grande v. Saldaña anticipated to be the storyline.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/5
Culkin is out front, but it’s worth noting that A Real Pain missed BP. Does this open the door for Norton or Pearce?
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
How I Did: 5/5
This is where Anora is expected to shine.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
How I Did: 5/5
This is where Conclave is expected to shine.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
How I Did: 3/5
After those acting and screenplay runs, my predictions come back down to Earth. My alternate Flow and Needle are in over Kneecap and Vermiglio. Despite I’m Still Here being an unanticipated addition to BP, Pérez should receive this.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 5/5
This was probably the race that all prognosticators nailed as this was an easy quintet to project. Flow vs. The Wild Robot.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane
How I Did: 3/5
Black Box Diaries and my alternate Soundtrack are in with Daughters (a surprising snub) and Will & Harper out. The Doc branch can hard to figure out though No Other Land is racking up early precursor awards.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu
How I Did: 3/5
My alternate Pérez and Maria (in its sole nom) are in over A Complete Unknown and Conclave. This is probably going to The Brutalist.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
Conclave (which was my runner-up) makes it in over Dune: Part Two. It should be noted that Dune‘s 5 nominations is certainly on the lower end of its expected range. Wicked is the frontrunner.
BEST FILM EDITING
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
How I Did: 3/5
I went with an upset by leaving off my alternate Anora, but it’s in and so is Wicked over A Complete Unknown and Dune. This is a tricky race to figure out and, frankly, I’m not ready to designate a favorite quite yet.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 5/5
This is where The Substance could materialize.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/5
It’s Wicked and Wild (my alt) over Challengers (which was blanked this morning) and Nosferatu. This could be a Brutalist prize.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
How I Did: 3/5
“Like a Bird” and Sir Elton’s ditty are part of the mix over “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper and “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, which was expected to make it. The Pérez tracks are out front with “El Mal” as your Globe victor.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 5/5
This could be a Wicked win.
BEST SOUND
A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/5
My alt Pérez and The Wild Robot (in a category where few were predicting it) instead of Blitz and Gladiator II (which had a poor morning with only Costume Design). While Dune could take this, I question whether the subpar five noms makes it vulnerable to others.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
My alt Wicked and not Twisters represented here. The same logic from Sound applies to VE with Dune. Could Alien or Better Man pose a threat?
And there you have it, folks! It’s now time to start my Case Of posts. Readers of the blog may recall that I do individual posts for the 10 BP nominees and the 25 director and acting hopefuls where I lay out the case for and against their winning. Those will be up in short order.
Here’s how the nominations tallies played out:
13 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist, Wicked
8 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Conclave
6 Nominations
Anora
5 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, The Substance
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
I’m Still Here, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Flow, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus. Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Different Man, Elton John: Never Too Late, The Girl with the Needle, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
And it has come down to this. On Thursday, the Academy (barring no further delays) is expected to unveil the contenders for their 97th ceremony. For nearly a year, I’ve been speculating about who and what will be nominated. Over the past few days, I penned deep dives on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Now it’s time for the speculation to end.
Thank you, blog readers, for perusing dozens and dozens of forecast updates and individual posts on the pictures in contention.
Let’s get to it! Here are my predictions for all feature-film categories with a runner-up named in each.
BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
A Real Pain
The Substance
Wicked
Runner-Up: Sing Sing
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Edward Berger, Conclave
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Runner-Up: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Runner-Up: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Runner-Up: Daniel Craig, Queer
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariane Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Runner-Up: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance
Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Kneecap
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Vermiglio
Runner-Up: Flow
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Moana 2
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Daughters
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Sugarcane
Will & Harper
Runner-Up: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST FILM EDITING
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Anora
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist
Challengers
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
Runner-Up: The Wild Robot
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
“Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
Runner-Up: Gladiator II
BEST SOUND
Blitz
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Wicked
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Twisters
Runner-Up: Wicked
That works out to a final tally of these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Conclave
7 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Wicked
5 Nominations
Anora, Nosferatu, The Substance
3 Nominations
A Real Pain
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Gladiator II, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio
I will, of course, have reaction up Thursday with how I did and some commentary.
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives TOMORROW prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd (pushed back due to the California wildfires). Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
The last post in this series is Best Picture. If you missed my write-ups for the acting derbies and director, you can access them here:
As I’ve mentioned several times lately, I believe there’s an octet of movies that have punched their ticket to the BP show. Let’s call them the easy 8. If any of these pictures miss the Best Picture cut at this point, it would be a major surprise. Four of them (Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez) have shown up in five of the key precursors: Golden Globes, BAFTA, PGA, Critics Choice and SAG.
Two more (The Brutalist, Wicked) managed four.
Two more (Dune: Part Two, The Substance) were nominated in three. No other 2024 motion pictures had three or more mentions.
Now we have to consider the final two slots and that’s where it gets tricky. Before we do, let’s take a moment to recognize some efforts that won’t make the ultimate dance. Some of them could show up in tech races or see some of their actors nominated. Others didn’t cut the mustard with critics and audiences. A lot of these titles were, at some juncture, listed in my top 25 possibilities as I forecasted the race throughout the year. They won’t be seen tomorrow in my BP list. We’re talking about Joker: Folie à Deux and Gladiator II and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. Yes, I once saw Megalopolis as a viable candidate. There’s The Piano Lesson, The Apprentice, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, Civil War, Kinds of Kindness, Maria, and The End.
That leaves me with 8 pictures to ponder for 2 spots. Unlike my previous posts on Best Director and the actors, I won’t be ranking these possibilities. After all, I gotta leave a little suspense for my final picks tomorrow, right? Nevertheless let’s walk through them one by one with some commentary.
All We Imagine as Light would be a threat to win Best International Feature Film had India submitted it as its contender. It was not to be and the Academy could make up for it in BP. Yet it hasn’t shown up in any of the 5 aforementioned precursors.
Challengers only has a Musical or Comedy nod from the Globes in its favor. A PGA nomination (which I wrongly predicted) didn’t materialize. This is a tough sell.
Nickel Boys has Golden Globe and Critics Choice noms on the resume. Many critics have it at the top of their 2024 best of, but it’s missed other key competitions.
Nosferatu has gotten some “spoiler” ink lately with some saying it could be this year’s Nightmare Alley. That pic from 2021 at least had the Critics Choice nod whereas Nosferatu didn’t show up in the quintet of precursors.
A Real Pain has undoubtedly had an up and down journey on the road to a potential BP nomination. It made the Globe cut and then missed Critics Choice and BAFTA. That left it down and out in the eyes of many and I dropped it from my 10. This week it popped back up at PGA and its fortunes could be stronger.
The Seed of the Sacred Fig should receive an International Feature Film nom. It has not gotten into the precursors for Picture though. Though I didn’t say I’d rank these eight, this is unquestionably at or near the bottom of these hopefuls.
September 5, like A Real Pain, has been buoyed by a PGA spot and it also made the Globes. Yet its exclusions at BAFTA and Critics Choice are noteworthy.
Sing Sing has had a rocky preseason, especially missing SAG and the Globes. While Colman Domingo seems locked in for Best Actor, the Academy will really need to fall for this. Of the five precursors, this only received Critics Choice.
There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Picture for the 97th Academy Awards. After months of endless speculation, you’ll know my final predictions in about 24 hours!
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
The fifth post in this series is Best Director. If you missed my write-ups for the acting derbies, you can access them here:
Similar to Best Actor, I believe there are four hopefuls represented here that you don’t want to bet against. There is a quartet of filmmakers who have been nominated in the four most significant precursors (DGA, Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice). They are Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist). Mr. Corbet won the Globe while the other races are TBD. I wouldn’t leave any of them out of your predictions.
So it all comes down to the fifth slot and I will discuss seven possibilities that I feel are viable. Before we get to that, there are the directors who might’ve had a shot before their pictures premiered. The movies either became non-contenders due to poor buzz and reviews or just never properly caught on in the awards chatter. This list includes Francis Ford Coppola (Megalopolis), Todd Phillips (Joker: Folie à Deux), Yorgos Lanthimos (Kinds of Kindness), Ridley Scott (Gladiator II), George Miller (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Joshua Oppenheimer (The End), Pablo Larrain (Maria), Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door) and Steve McQueen (Blitz).
The next level includes makers of movies that didn’t quite reach BP consideration and even some that could make the cut at BP. I’m looking at Tim Fehlbaum (September 5), Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing), Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Walter Salles (I’m Still Here), Robert Eggers (Nosferatu) and Luca Guadagnino for Challengers and Queer.
Now let’s get to the 7 individuals fighting for the 5th spot, shall we?
Jon M. Chu directed one of the year’s largest blockbusters in Wicked. However, he has only picked up a Critics Choice precursor mention in which there were eight nominees. I’d rank him 6th of these 7 possibilities.
Coralie Fargeat’s behind the camera work for The Substance has yielded her Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA noms. The notable omission is DGA, but DGA/Oscar seldom match completely. I have her 1st of these 7 possibilities.
Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) got in the Globes mix but couldn’t make it anywhere else. She’s 5th of the 7 possibilities.
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) was the surprise fifth contender at DGA and Unknown has been exceeding expectations at precursors as we arrive at Oscar nominations. Under the same logic seen above with Fargeat, I have Mangold 3rd of the 7 possibilities.
Mohammad Rasoulof’s direction of The Seed of the Sacred Fig was once seen a strong hopeful. Fig has, however, seemingly fallen out of BP contention and Rasoulof has not been nominated at any of the aforementioned shows. He’s 7th of the 7 possibilities.
RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) made the octet of Critics Choice contestants and has been absent elsewhere. Boys is a question mark for BP inclusion and I have Ross 4th of the 7 possibilities.
Finally, Denis Villeneuve was a shocking snub in 2021 with Dune. For Dune: Part Two, he’s missed DGA and the Globes but was included in Critics Choice and BAFTA. The Academy might seek to rectify their ’21 activity. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 7 possibilities for the last slot.
OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Director for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do final picks. I’ll have that all-important dive into Best Picture up next!
The nominees for the Producers Guild of America (PGA) unveiled the ten nominees for their best motion picture and five contenders for an animated offering today. When it comes to BP nominees, the PGA has a mostly impressive track record matching with the Oscar list.
Most notably, there was a 10/10 correlation last year. It was 8/10 in 2021 and 7/10 in 2020 and 2022. Let’s walk through the nominated features with how I did in my predictions and some commentary.
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 8/10
When I made my projections for this race, I stated that I believe there to be 8 safe pictures for PGA and at Oscar: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, The Substance, and Wicked. That certainly appears to hold true for the upcoming nods as the octet is up at PGA.
It’s the last two slots that are tricky to figure and the PGA just made it trickier. A Real Pain and September 5 are in over my picks of Challengers and Nickel Boys. I’ll also note that Nosferatu or Sing Sing being included here could have helped their fortunes.
This is certainly a boost for A Real Pain which has missed some key precursors lately and an unexpected slot for September 5 which has been largely absent in other lists.
Unlike last year, I don’t think we’re going to see a 10/10 match. 8 for 10 seems assured and 9 for 10 is certainly doable.
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Flow, Inside Out 2, Moana 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 4/5
Every Despicable Me predecessor made the cut at PGA, so I went with Despicable Me 4 over Wallace. It was not to be.
I’ll have winner predictions up shortly before the event which is slated for February 8th.
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