Tag: Dumb Money

2023 Oscar Predictions: July 9th Edition

The first July predictions for the 96th Academy Awards shall be known as the pre Barbie and Oppenheimer edition. They are eagerly awaited efforts from Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan, respectively, that are hoping to become giant blockbusters and awards players. July 21st marks the release date for both. When my next forecast arrives in a couple of weeks, reviews and buzz and financial numbers for the pair will be available.

Since June 25th (my previous update), there’s not been too much news. We have some new trailers including Bob Marley: One Love with Kingsley Ben-Adir as the iconic reggae singer. Interestingly all the promotional materials are advertising a January 12th premiere. I’m still assuming it will get a December limited release to qualify for contention. It is something worth keeping an eye on. I will say that I found the trailer to be somewhat lackluster. With the release date confusion, I’ve taken it out of my top 25 in BP while keeping Ben-Adir and Lashana Lynch in their acting derbies.

Frequent readers will know that releases dates are always shifting. I’m putting The Piano Lesson back in the mix even though it might not be out until 2024. You’ll see it emerge back into several competitions below.

Festivals are beginning to tease their lineups. Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers will open Venice in September while Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins is tapped for Toronto. Expect plenty more announcement in the coming days and weeks.

In Best Actor, I’ve elevated Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) to #1 over Colman Domingo. That puts Killers atop the charts in Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay. We’ll see how long its dominance lasts as other heavy hitters screen over the next few months.

As we await the Barbie and Oppenheimer reactions, here’s my speculation as to where everything stands for the eight top categories.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Air (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)

12. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 12) (-2)

15. May December (PR: 15) (E)

16. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+2)

17. Challengers (PR: 17) (E)

18. Asteroid City (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

21. Rustin (PR: 20) (-1)

22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 23) (+1)

23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Ferrari (PR: 24) (E)

25. The Killer (PR: 21) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Bob Marley: One Love

How Do You Live?

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)

15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

David Fincher, The Killer

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)

7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: 15) (+3)

13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Halle Bailey, The Color Purple

Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Claire Foy, Strangers

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mike Faist, Challengers

Josh O’Connor, Challengers

Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saltburn (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Air (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)

12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Drive-Away Dolls (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie (moved to Adapted)

Bob Marley: One Love

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

11. The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (-3)

14. BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Killer (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Strangers

The Bikeriders

The Boys in the Boat

Dumb Money

2023 Oscar Predictions: June 25th Edition

For my last forecast for the month of June, not a lot has changed in my predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. Viola Davis (Air) is back in Supporting Actress over Julianne Moore (May December). In the screenplay contests, I’ve elevated Anatomy of a Fall over May December in the original derby. For Adapted Screenplay, Oppenheimer jumps into the top five over Poor Things. It is worth noting that while I don’t have animated box office behemoth Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse in my BP ten, it does jump seven positions to number 12.

When I do my initial July projections in a couple of weeks, we might have some buzz for potential heavy hitters Oppenheimer and Barbie as they each ready their debuts on July 21st.

We have seen our first peeks at fall contenders such as Challengers, Priscilla, Drive-Away Dolls, and Dumb Money over the past few days via their trailers. Truth be told, this is a slow time for awards prognosticating. This will change before we know it with festival season around the corner.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+1)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Air (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Poor Things (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)

12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 19) (+7)

13. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Barbie (PR: 15) (+1)

15. May December (PR: 12) (-3)

16. Asteroid City (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Challengers (PR: 13) (-4)

18. Napoleon (PR: 15) (-3)

19. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 23) (+4)

20. Rustin (PR: 22) (+2)

21. The Killer (PR: 20) (-1)

22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+2)

23. The Book of Clarence (PR: 18) (-5)

24. Ferrari (PR: 25) (+1)

25. How Do You Live? (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Flint Strong (moved to 2024)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E()

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)

15. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Todd Haynes, May December

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (E)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12 )(E)

13. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest

Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)

10. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 10) (E)

11. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mike Faist, Challengers (moved to Supporting Actor)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)

13. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 13) (E)

14. Josh O’Connor, Challengers (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong

Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Saltburn (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Air (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. May December (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted)

10. Challengers (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Drive-Away Dolls (PR: 2) (+1)

12. Rustin (PR: 11) (-1)

13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 14) (E)

15. Napoleon (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Monster

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (+2)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Strangers (PR: 12) (+1)

12. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

13. The Bikeriders (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Boys in the Boat (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie (moved to Original)

Flint Strong

Ferrari

2023 Oscar Predictions: May 14th Edition

My second round of ranked predictions in the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards comes two days before the 76th Annual Cannes Film Festival gets underway in the south of France. It will conclude on May 27th and you can expect my third round of forecasts shortly thereafter.

At Cannes, we will receive our first reviews and buzz for numerous heavy hitters. Those pictures include Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, May December from Todd Haynes, Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City, Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, Monster from Hirokazu Kore-eda, Firebrand with Alicia Vikander, Pixar’s Elemental, and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

Here is my pre-Cannes outlook on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies and let’s see how this gets shook up in a couple of weeks!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

6. Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Air (PR: 9) (E)

10. May December (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)

12. Barbie (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Blitz (PR: 13) (E)

14. Challengers (PR: 8) (-6)

15. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

16. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Flint Strong (PR: 19) (+2)

18. Napoleon (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Killer (PR: 21) (+2)

20. Rustin (PR: 20) (E)

21. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+3)

22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 17) (-5)

23. Ferrari (PR: 23) (E)

24. Strangers (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Asteroid City (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Bikeriders

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Todd Haynes, May December (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Luca Guadagnino, Challengers

David Fincher, The Killer

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

15. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (moved to Supporting)

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 14) (+5)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (E)

11. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 5) (-7)

13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Andrew Scott, Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andre Holland, The Actor

Paul Mescal, Strangers (moved to Supporting)

Adam Driver, Ferrari

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (E)

9. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)

12. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Moon Seung-ah, Past Lives

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Jeremy Strong, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Paul Dano, Dumb Money

2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

After I gave you my unranked initial picks back in March in the six major Oscar categories, it’s time to get numbers involved!

April brings us the first ranked predictions for the four acting categories, director, and picture. We begin with Supporting Actor and the usual caveats:

  • Some of these performers could end up in lead Actor. For example, both Willem Dafoe and Ryan Gosling are big question marks as to where their placement will end up being. For now, I have them here.
  • Some of these releases could be pushed back to 2024. Robert De Niro and Jesse Plemons in Killers of the Flower Moon, Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things, and Glynn Turman in Rustin were all first slated for 2022.
  • And, of course, some of these performances and their pictures will simply fall by the wayside and actors I haven’t even considered will surface on the festival circuit and on the release calendar.

In 2022, my initial ranked picks in Supporting Actor correctly had the eventual winner Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) in the top five. He was the only eventual nominee listed in the 15 possibilities.

Let’s see how it shakes out this time around with the inaugural ranked forecast for our Supporting Actors!

TODD’S BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:

1. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

5. John Magaro, Past Lives

Other Possibilities:

6. Charles Melton, May December

7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie

8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn

9. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple

10. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong

11. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

12. Ben Affleck, Air

13. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer

14. Glynn Turman, Rustin

15. Paul Dano, Dumb Money

Best Supporting Actress is up next!