Tag: Dreamworks Animation

March 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Mark Wahlberg stars in dog tale Arthur the King while A24 thriller Love Lies Bleeding with Kristen Stewart expands nationwide. Those newcomers are highly unlikely to dislodge Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two from the top two positions. Detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Arthur the King Box Office Prediction
Love Lies Bleeding Box Office Prediction

Arthur could exceed expectations as canine content sometimes can. My lower double digits estimate puts it in third place as it hopes for word-of-mouth to keep it around for a while.

Bleeding performed well in 5 venues on the coasts, but could face headwinds as it rolls out everywhere. My forecast could put it anywhere from 4-6 though I’m banking on 6th.

The battle for #1 could be tight between Kung Fu Panda 4‘s sophomore outing and the third frame of Dune: Part Two. The former had a terrific premiere at the highest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). The second weekend dip could be 50% or a little more or less. Dune may only decline in the 40% range and that could create a photo finish. I’ll give Panda the slight edge.

Assuming Bleeding doesn’t over perform, 4-5 should be a close race between the second stands for Imaginary and Cabrini.

Here’s how I have the top 6 playing out:

1. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

2. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $29.4 million

3. Arthur the King

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

4. Imaginary

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. Cabrini

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

6. Love Lies Bleeding

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

Box Office Results (March 8-10)

DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 4 easily ruled the charts with a potent $57.9 million. I thought the long running franchise would continue its downward trend (part 3 started with $41.2 million), but I was off base with my meager $38.1 million prediction. This is actually the second best start for the series after the original’s $60.2 million in 2008.

Dune: Part Two filled the runner-up spot with $46.2 million and that’s still ahead of my $40.7 million call. The acclaimed sequel eased only 44% as its two-week tally has reached $157 million.

In third, Blumhouse horror flick Imaginary (which features a bear not doing martial arts) debuted to barely under its reported $10 million budget with $9.9 million. I was close at $10.5 million. While this doesn’t match various other genre offerings from the studio, it’s still a satisfactory figure considering the price tag.

Cabrini from Angel Studios was fourth with $7.1 million, not reaching my $8.9 million projection. The period piece biopic from the maker of Sound of Freedom hopes to post smallish drops as we head towards Easter.

Bob Marley: One Love rounded out the top five with $4 million (I went higher with $5.2 million) as this biopic has amassed $89 million after four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Kung Fu Panda 4

While animated titles dealing with spiders or herons are the likeliest Best Animated Feature Oscar winner this Sunday, Kung Fu Panda 4 hopes to take the box office this weekend. DreamWorks Animation’s martial arts comedy comes from director Mike Mitchell with Jack Black reprising his role as Po. Dustin Hoffman, Awkwafina, Viola Davis, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, Ian McShane, Ke Huy Quan, Lori Tan Chinn, and Ronny Chieng also provide voiceover work.

The first pair of Panda pics in 2008 and 2011 both received Animated Feature nods from the Academy, losing respectively to Wall-E and Rango. The third edition in 2016 did not manage to make the quintet despite matching the original’s 87% RT score (the second one hit 81%). No. 4 currently sits at 78%. If competition is weak, perhaps this series could return to contention. I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

March 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Kung Fu Panda 4 will attempt to kick Dune: Part Two out of the top spot this weekend and we also have Blumhouse horror flick Imaginary and faith-based biopic Cabrini debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

Kung Fu Panda 4 Box Office Prediction
Imaginary Box Office Prediction
Cabrini Box Office Prediction

I am estimating that DreamWorks Animation’s Panda franchise will continue its downward trend with a high 30s start after the longest layoff between entries.

If that occurs, that likely means a 2nd place showing behind the sophomore frame of Dune: Part Two. That hotly anticipated sequel opened right in line with expectations (more on that below) and had an A Cinemascore grade. Some of its business is understandably frontloaded, but its drop could hold up sturdier than other genre fare in the high 40s to low 50s range.

Blumhouse should have another profitable fright fest with Imaginary considering its reported low budget. However, I don’t envision it premiering anywhere near the studio’s biggest earners. A low double digits gross could put it in third.

That’s unless Cabrini overperforms and it’s the weekend wild car in my view. Coming from Angel Studios and the director of last summer’s smash Sound of Freedom, this could surprise if faith-based crowds turn out in force. On the other hand, Angel’s follow-ups like After Death and The Shift have only managed mid single digits out of the gate. I’m splitting the difference and forecasting a fourth place finish.

Finally, Bob Marley: One Love should round out the top five as it attempts to reach $100 million domestically.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $40.7 million

2. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $38.1 million

3. Imaginary

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. Cabrini

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

5. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (March 1-3)

I had Dune: Part Two doubling the debut of its 2021 predecessor and that’s precisely what occurred. The sequel, which landed even better reviews than the heavily Oscar nominated original, took in $82.5 million. That’s in line with my $83.6 million prediction and just over what Oppenheimer premiered with last summer. Christopher Nolan’s biopic (which is about to be crowned Best Picture) experienced only a 43% second weekend decline. As mentioned, Dune‘s should be more, but perhaps not by too much.

After two weeks in first, Bob Marley: One Love was second with $7.4 million and that’s right on target with my $7.5 million call. That biopic now stands at $82 million after three weeks.

Ordinary Angels remained in third with $3.8 million, falling shy of my $4.9 million projection. The faith-based drama with Hilary Swank has $12 million in its coffers after two weeks.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 was fourth with $3.2 million (I said $2.9 million). Since its Leap Day Thursday opening, the total is $4 million.

Finally, superheroine flop Madame Web was fifth with $3.1 million (I said $2.9 million) for a mere $40 million in its three frames of release.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Kung Fu Panda 4 Box Office Prediction

DreamWorks Animation hopes to reverse diminishing returns for its comedic martial arts franchise when Kung Fu Panda 4 arrives in theaters March 8th. Mike Mitchell, maker of such genre fare including Shrek Forever After and Trolls, directs. Jack Black is back voicing the title character alongside returnees Dustin Hoffman, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, and Ian McShane. Newcomers include Awkwafina, Ke Huy Quan, Ronny Chieng, Lori Tan Chinn, and Viola Davis.

In the summer of 2008, the first Panda sighting kicked off with $60 million and an eventual $215 million domestic haul. Three summers later, the second edition also made $60 million. However, that was with an extra day of grosses due to the Memorial Day holiday. Its lesser total was $165 million. By January 2016, Kung Fu Panda 3 premiered at $41 million and then $143 million overall.

The eight year layoff is easily the longest between entries. Absence could make the heart grow fonder or at least enough to match its predecessor’s beginning. Yet I suspect mid to high 30s is more likely.

Kung Fu Panda 4 opening weekend prediction: $38.1 million

For my Imaginary prediction, click here:

Imaginary Box Office Prediction

For my Cabrini prediction, click here:

Cabrini Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Orion and the Dark

Orion and the Dark is streaming as of today on Netflix. Produced by DreamWorks Animation and marking the directorial debut of Sean Charmatz, the animated fantasy deals with themes of existentialism and fear. This is not too surprising considering the script comes from Charlie Kaufman, adapting Emma Yarlett’s children’s book. The voice cast includes Jacob Tremblay, Colin Hanks, Paul Walter Hauser, Angela Bassett, Ike Barinholtz, Natasia Demetriou, Nat Faxon, Carla Gugino, and Werner Herzog.

Kaufman is no stranger to the genre. He wrote and directed 2015’s Anomalisa. That critically acclaimed effort was up for Animated Feature at the Oscars, ultimately losing to Pixar’s Inside Out. Netflix knows how to get their animated material awards attention. Recent nominees include The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Sea Beast, the victorious Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, and Nimona.

Orion is getting a warm reception so far with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. We don’t know yet what this category’s landscape will look like several months down the road. However, I wouldn’t underestimate the chances for this to make it in. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

December 1-3 Box Office Predictions

November closed out at the box office with an unpredictable Thanksgiving frame where I had the entirety of the top four in the wrong spots. The head scratching will continue as December arrives with a quintet of newcomers (four of which could post very similar earnings). We have the concert pic Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé, Japanese monster mash Godzilla Minus One, John Woo’s dialogue free action thriller Silent Night, sci-fi drama The Shift from Angel Studios, and Hindi-language shoot-em-up Animal. My detailed prediction posts on all of them can be accessed here:

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Box Office Prediction
Godzilla Minus One Box Office Prediction
Silent Night Box Office Prediction
The Shift Box Office Prediction
Animal Box Office Prediction

Beyoncé’s tour doc might be the only new entry in the top five. While it shouldn’t approach the near $100M out of the gate that Taylor Swift accomplished, a mid to high 20s output would firmly put it in first position.

It is common to see hefty drops after the Turkey Day weekend and that should apply to the leftovers. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (after surprisingly staying at #1 over the holiday) should slide to second with a mid 50s decline.

After that… it’s a crapshoot. Any of the newcomers could post better figures than my calls. However, I have all four making between $5-8 million and each falling outside the top five.

That’s because Napoleon, Wish, and Trolls Band Together may all flirt with $10 million. I’ve got the trio falling under that for a close finish between 3-5.

With all the newbies, I’ll expand to a top ten outlook and here’s how I see it:

1. Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé

Predicted Gross: $20.7 million

2. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

3. Wish

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

4. Napoleon

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

5. Trolls World Tour

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

6. Godzilla Minus One

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

7. Silent Night

Predicted Gross: $5 million

8. The Shift

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

9. Animal

Predicted Gross: $4 million

10. Thanksgiving

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

Box Office Results (November 24-26)

In one of the most unexpected upsets in recent memory, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes had a far better than anticipated sophomore hold to rather easily take the holiday weekend. The franchise prequel eased a mere 35% for $29 million from Friday to Sunday, surpassing my $20.3 million projection with flying colors. The ten-day take is now $98 million.

Ridley Scott’s bio-epic Napoleon with Joaquin Phoenix was second as it slightly rose above forecasts. It made $20.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $32.7 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. That’s ahead of my respective $18.2 million and $28.5 million takes. With a weak B- Cinemascore grade, it may fade rather quickly.

After the massive flop that was The Marvels, the news didn’t get better for the Mouse House as the animated Wish was granted a tepid start in third. With ho-hum reviews, the Disney title fell far short of hopes with $19.6 million over the three-day and $31.6 million since Wednesday. I (along with most others) predicted a first place showing and had it at $32.2 million and $46.4 million. Ouch.

Trolls Band Together, in weekend two, was fourth with $17.8 million. I was more generous at $22.6 million and the DreamWorks Animated sequel has made $64 million after ten days.

Eli Roth’s slasher Thanksgiving capitalized on that title with a fifth place slot and $7 million (I said $6.5 million). The ten-day tally is a respectable $24 million, especially since it comes with a low budget.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 24-26 Box Office Predictions

The Thanksgiving box office gives us two high-profile releases mixed with the leftovers as Disney’s Wish and Ridley Scott’s Napoleon come out Wednesday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Wish Box Office Prediction
Napoleon Box Office Prediction

The Mouse House certainly wishes that Wish was getting better reviews and word-of-mouth. That said, the studio should have no trouble nabbing the top spot over the holiday frame. I’ve got the three-day in the low 30s and five-day in the mid 40s.

Napoleon with Joaquin Phoenix as the military leader is also generating so-so buzz. It is a viable option for adults looking a Turkey Day frame trip to the multiplex. A high teens Friday to Sunday might leave it in fourth position with a five-day approaching $30 milion.

After a premiere in the lower end of its anticipated range, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes may ease 50-55% in its sophomore outing. That might mean a drop to third as Trolls Band Together should see a more meager slide (20-25%) in its second weekend and stay in the runner-up spot.

Eli Roth’s slasher Thanksgiving could capitalize on its name and have a smaller than normal decline for its genre. If it eases 40% or so, it should round out the high five as The Marvels might not make the top quintet (more on its poor performance below).

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Wish

Predicted Gross: $32.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $46.4 million

2. Trolls Band Together

Predicted Gross: $22.6 million

3. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes

Predicted Gross: $2o.3 million

4. Napoleon

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $28.5 million

5. Thanksgiving

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

Box Office Results (November 17-19)

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, as expected, ruled the charts like its predecessors. Yet it came in considerably below the four entries it prequels. While parts I-IV from 2012-15 all opened to more than $100 million, Ballad managed $44.6 million (a touch under my $48.3 million projection). It’s not a disaster considering the reported $100 million budget, but it’s definitely not a shining victory.

Trolls Band Together opened in second with a solid $30 million, surpassing my $26.7 million take. The DreamWorks Animated threequel should hold up well during the holiday season.

Thanksgiving cut a $10.3 million gross for third place as the fake trailer turned feature came in just behind my $11.4 million forecast. Not too shabby as the budget is listed at $12.6 million.

The Marvels fell from first to fourth with a disastrous second weekend after a disastrous first. The MCU bomb (first time you’ve ever heard it) plummeted 78% to $10.1 million. I was more kind at $15.6 million. With $64 million in the bank after 10 days, it’s questionable whether Captain Marvel and her friends even reach $100 million domestically.

Five Nights at Freddy’s rounded out the top five with $3.5 million (I said $4.5 million) to brings its four-week total to $132 million.

Finally, Taika Waititi’s oft-delayed sports dramedy Next Goal Wins couldn’t find an audience. It was 8th with $2.5 million compared to my $3.8 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Have a great Thanksgiving!

November 17-19 Box Office Predictions

A quartet of new titles enter the pre-Thanksgiving frame marketplace with prequel The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes expected to lead the way and DreamWorks Animation’s threequel Trolls Band Together in the runner-up spot. We also have Eli Roth’s slasher flick Thanksgiving and Taika Waititi’s sports dramedy Next Goal Wins out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes Box Office Prediction
Trolls Band Together Box Office Prediction
Thanksgiving Box Office Prediction
Next Goal Wins Box Office Prediction

All four Hunger Games titles (released from 2012-15) debuted to over $100 million, but that streak is sure to end with Songbirds. It may only fly to around $50 million and I’ve got it achieving just a smidge under that.

Barring a significant Hunger underperformance, Trolls should settle for #2 in the mid 20s as it hopes to leg out impressively in future holiday weekends.

The Marvels experienced a historically low start for an MCU offering (more on that below). With a weak B Cinemascore grade, it could be headed for a catastrophic fall in the mid 60s or more in its sophomore frame (similar to The Flash this summer). That’s not the comparison it wanted and it likely means a third place showing.

I’ll say Thanksgiving carves up a little over $10 million and that would put it in fourth. The news is bleaker for the frequently delayed Next Goal Wins as it failed to generate awards buzz on the fest circuit and seems to have little heat attached to it. I’m putting it in sixth behind Five Nights at Freddy’s in weekend #4.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes

Predicted Gross: $48.3 million

2. Trolls Band Together

Predicted Gross: $26.7 million

3. The Marvels

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million

4. Thanksgiving

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. Five Nights at Freddy’s

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

6. Next Goal Wins

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

Box Office Results (November 10-12)

It was indeed the worst of times for the Marvel Cinematic Universe as The Marvels had the lowest debut of all 33 franchise entries dating back to the summer of 2008. Captain Marvel and team made off with a mere $46.1 million, right on pace with my $46.3 million (my projection kept dwindling in the week leading up to its premiere). That’s the worst MCU kickoff by a pretty wide margin as the previous record was held by 2008’s The Incredible Hulk at $55 million. A series that once seemed indestructible is no longer as comic book movies have had a tough 2023 in multiplexes. As mentioned, the B Cinemascore indicates crowds aren’t digging the product.

Five Nights at Freddy’s, after two weeks atop the charts, was second with $8.9 million (a bit ahead of my $7.4 million take). The three-week tally is up to $127 million.

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour was third with $6 million as took a heftier drop (over 50%) that I figured in its fifth weekend. The record setting concert pic total is $172 million.

In a surprising development, Priscilla was fourth in its sophomore go-round. The biopic increased its theater count and fell only 5% to $4.7 million for $12 million overall. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.

Killers of the Flower Moon was fifth with $4.5 million in weekend four. My guess? $4.5 million for $59 million in the bank.

The Holdovers expanded to nearly 800 screens and the Oscar hopeful made $3.2 million for sixth (I said $3 million).

Finally, faith-based musical Journey to Bethlehem got off to a rougher journey than I forecasted. It was seventh with $2.4 million and I thought it would double that figure with $4.8 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Trolls Band Together

Trolls Band Together from DreamWorks is the third animated feature in the musical franchise out November 17th with Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake, and many others on crooning duty.

Thus far the critical response is below its two predecessors. 2016’s Trolls sat at 75% on Rotten Tomatoes while 2020 follow-up Trolls World Tour was a hair under at 71%. At press time, Band Together has managed just 56% on the meter.

The two earlier Trolls entries failed to nab Animated Feature nods at the Oscars and this won’t either. In fact, I’d say it’s easily behind three other sequels in Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, and Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget.

Seven years ago, this series earned its only Academy mention for Timberlake’s smash hit “Can’t Stop the Feeling” (it lost to “City of Stars” from La La Land). This second sequel does boast an NSYNC reunion after two decades with the track “Better Place”. Yet it is not dominating the charts like band member JT’s aforementioned ditty managed. Like World Tour, Band doesn’t seem primed for an encore come awards time. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Trolls Band Together Box Office Prediction

The computer animated creatures that first hit the screen seven years ago are back again in Trolls Band Together on November 17th. The DreamWorks musical comedy comes from Walt Dohrn, who co-directed the 2016 original and solely helmed the 2020 sequel. Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake, Zooey Deschanel, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, Icona Pop, Anderson Paak, Ron Funches, Kenan Thompson, and Kunal Nayyar reprise their vocal roles. They are joined by Eric André, Kid Cudi, Daveed Diggs, Camila Cabello, Amy Schumer, and RuPaul.

Featuring tracks from Kendrick and Cabello and the first NSYNC track in over two decades, Together hopes to bring in a large crowd. The first Trolls opened to a better than expected $46 million with an eventual $153 million domestic haul. Yet any clues for sequel demand were made complicated by follow-up Trolls World Tour. It went the VOD route due to coming out in April 2020 as movie theaters were shuttered by the COVID pandemic. There are estimates that it took in around $150 million in rentals.

Where does that leave our third song and dance fest? I certainly think this won’t match the mid 40s debut from 2016. This seems likely to start slower though it could have a healthy hold in its second frame over the long Thanksgiving weekend.

I’ll say mid to high 20s to possibly low 30s is where this Band begins as it hopes for pleasing encores over the holidays.

Trolls Band Together opening weekend prediction: $26.7 million

For my The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes prediction, click here:

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes Box Office Prediction

For my Thanksgiving prediction, click here:

Thanksgiving Box Office Prediction

For my Next Goal Wins prediction, click here:

Next Goal Wins Box Office Prediction